NFL Draft

While the 2022 NFL draft class is widely seen as being a down year at quarterback, league executives believe at least three and as many as five signal-callers could go in Round 1.

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport spoke to 10 executives, all of whom view three as the bare-minimum number.

"I don't know that all of them are truly worthy of getting picked in Round 1, but everybody needs them, and you aren't getting one in Round 2. Not as deep as last year, but three for sure—Corral, Willis and Pickett—plus a wild card," one executive said.

Matt Corral (Ole Miss), Kenny Pickett (Pitt), Malik Willis (Liberty) and Sam Howell (North Carolina) are the strongest bets to go in Round 1, with Nevada's Carson Strong also having a shot.

None of the quarterbacks are expected to go with the No. 1 overall pick. That distinction seems to be Kayvon Thibodeaux's to lose. The Oregon defensive end is the draft's consensus top player and is on pace to become the first non-quarterback to go No. 1 overall since Myles Garrett in 2017.

Once Thibodeaux is off the board, though, all bets are off. The draft may play out similarly to 2017, which saw three teams trade into the Top 12 to land their quarterback. The Chicago Bears grabbed Mitchell Trubisky at No. 2, the Kansas City Chiefs selected Patrick Mahomes at No. 10 and the Houston Texans landed Deshaun Watson at No. 12. Two of those three draft picks worked out on the field, despite the 2017 class also being viewed as weak at quarterback.

The NFL's rookie salary scale heavily incentivizes teams to take risks on quarterbacks who wouldn't otherwise go in Round 1. Trevor Lawrence earned $36.8 million over four years for being the top pick in this year's draft, about $41 million less than what Sam Bradford signed for in 2010. While all of Lawrence's contract is guaranteed, $50 million of Bradford's $78 million was guaranteed.

Over the same time period, the NFL salary cap has gone up more than $60 million. (Note: We are using 2011 for this comparison because 2010 was an uncapped year; it's also worth noting that the NFL salary cap went down in 2021 by 7.9 percent because of the COVID-19 pandemic.)

A decade ago, taking a swing and a miss at quarterback could set your franchise back for the next five years. Now teams are incentivized to swing big and hope they hit a home run.

Oregon star Kayvon Thibodeaux remains the top player in the 2022 NFL draft class, according to the latest big board by ESPN's Todd McShay.

There were no changes in the top five from McShay's latest installment in October, although there was a significant shift at quarterback with Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett overtaking Malik Willis of Liberty as the position's top player.

Here is how the draft expert sees the top of the class with the college football regular season nearing its end.

Todd McShay Big Board

1. Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon

2. Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU

3. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama

4. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

5. Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan

6. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State

7. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State

8. Drake London, WR, USC

9. Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia

10. Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State

Thibodeaux has seemingly separated himself from the field as an elite pass-rushing talent, showcasing his ability with two sacks Saturday against Washington State. The first pick could come down to need, but the Oregon product leaves little question about who is the best overall player in the class.

LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is out indefinitely with a foot injury, but it hasn't affected his projection as he sits No. 2 overall.

USC receiver Drake London has also been sidelined with a fractured ankle ending his season. He is still one of the biggest risers on the board, jumping from No. 24 to No. 8 after totaling 88 catches for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns in just eight games this year.

The draft's biggest question marks are at quarterback, with Willis dropping out of the top 10 and falling to second at his position. The Liberty star threw three interceptions in a loss to Ole Miss, raising questions about his ability against tougher competition.

Pickett has become QB1 while totaling 3,517 passing yards and 32 touchdowns with only four interceptions this year. Despite his production, there could be plenty of movement before April with Matt Corral, Desmond Ridder and Sam Howell all fighting to be first-round picks.    

Kayvon Thibodeaux and Kyle Hampton are the class of the 2022 NFL draft, according to ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr.

The longtime draft expert released his latest rankings Wednesday, with Thibodeaux and Hampton remaining atop his Top 25.

1. Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
2. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
3. Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
4. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
5. Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
6. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
7. Drake London, WR, USC
8. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
9. Nakobe Dean, ILB, Georgia
10. David Ojabo, DE, Michigan

Thibodeaux has been the consensus top player in the draft all season and is perhaps the best defensive prospect since Myles Garrett in 2017. Garrett is the only non-quarterback to go No. 1 overall in the last seven drafts.

Thibodeaux is a mortal lock to break the string of four straight quarterbacks given this is not considered a strong quarterback class. Kiper's highest-rated quarterback in the 2022 class is Pitt's Kyle Pickett at No. 20. Liberty's Malik Willis is the only other signal-caller in the Top 25.

While it's certain that a quarterback-needy team or two will take one higher than their current ranking, we're looking at a first round filled with linemen and defensive players.

Michigan defensive end David Ojabo is the latest fast-riser to make a name from himself, leaping all the way to No. 10 after being unranked all season. Ojabo has recorded 23 tackles and eight sacks as he realizes his immense potential. The Nigerian-born star grew up in Scotland and did not begin playing football until five years ago.

NC State offensive lineman Ikem Ekwonu is the next highest-ranked newcomer in Kiper's rankings at No. 17.