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QB-Needy Teams Should Wait for 2023 Draft, Not Gamble on Round 1 Prospects Now

Feb 12, 2022
MOBILE, AL - FEBRUARY 05: National quarterback Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh (8) during the Reese's Senior Bowl on February 5, 2022 at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama.  (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MOBILE, AL - FEBRUARY 05: National quarterback Kenny Pickett of Pittsburgh (8) during the Reese's Senior Bowl on February 5, 2022 at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. (Photo by Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

In B/R's big board ahead of the 2022 NFL draft, there are seven quarterbacks in the top 150. That's exactly as many as there were in 2021.

The big difference?

Last year, four quarterbacks were ranked inside the top 10 and had grades of 8.7 (immediate impact prospect/NFL starter) or higher. Two—Ohio State's Justin Fields and Clemson's Trevor Lawrence—had grades above 90, with All-Pro as a floor and the Hall of Fame as a ceiling.

This year, not a single QB is included among the 10 highest-graded players of this class. B/R scouts' No. 1 QB prospect, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, is slotted 17th overall; the next, Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett, doesn't appear on the board until No. 43.

The rest of the quarterbacks who made it into the top 150 players in this year's class rank as follows: Ole Miss' Matt Corral at No. 82, Liberty's Malik Willis at No. 87, North Carolina's Sam Howell at No. 92, Nevada's Carson Strong at No. 93 and Western Kentucky's Bailey Zappe at No. 107.

Moreover, no quarterback in this class earned a grade of 9.0 (top-10 prospect) from B/R NFL Scout Nate Tice. QB1 Ridder grades out at 8.4 (first-year starter/late first or second-rounder). All the other prospects are graded between 7.7 (potential impact player/second-rounder) and 6.8 (potential role player/fourth-rounder). 

All of this is to say there is one prospect in this class—Ridder—who might be considered a future franchise quarterback, with the talent and potential to start his rookie season if he had to. 

Every other quarterback in this class, in all likelihood, is best suited to be an NFL backup.

But because there are so many QB-needy teams in 2022—and so few signal-callers likely to land on the trade market when it comes down to it—these players are going to be drafted higher than they ought to be and have unfair expectations pinned on them as a result. 

We have been living in a golden era of young quarterback prospects.

Five quarterbacks were drafted in the first round in 2021, with three in the first three selections.

Four were drafted in Round 1 in 2020; the No. 1 overall pick, Joe Burrow, is currently preparing to play in Sunday's Super Bowl LVI.

Fourteen other quarterbacks were drafted within the first 10 selections in the five years before that. 

With all that talent pouring out of college football in recent seasons, the well was due to dry up at some point.

That's not to take anything away from this season's QB class before they've even had a chance to prove themselves on the field.

But the many teams that might be considered QB-needy this offseason are in trouble. 

Who are those teams, exactly? Let's go by the current draft order.

The Houston Texans have a more complicated quarterback situation than any other team in the league. Not only will they have only one quarterback who is not Deshaun Watson actively under contract when the new league year begins on March 16 in Davis Mills, but they have to figure out what to do with Watson.

Watson didn't suit up for the entire 2021 season as allegations of sexual misconduct made against him by 22 women are investigated. The ongoing legal process, obviously, also made him untradeable.

Before the legal action against him began, Watson had requested a trade from the team. It seems likely he will not play another down for the Texans, but his presence on the roster hamstrings them from a future decision. Mills may be the QB of the future, but the Texans need a veteran who can push him in training camp or provide roster depth. That makes the free-agency market an obvious choice for Houston.

The two quarterbacks on the New York Jets' roster behind Zach Wilson are set to become free agents in March. The Jets are in a better position than most of the teams on this list in that they have a clear starter Wilson, but they'll still need depth in their QB room.

The Carolina Panthers, meanwhile, don't have a clear path forward at the position.

Cam Newton was cut and then re-signed and is now an impending free agent. Sam Darnold is under contract for one more season, but unless he can blow Carolina away in 2022 with an improvement on his 243-completion, 2,527-yard, nine-touchdown and 13-interception 2021 campaign, he doesn't seem like he possesses the keys to the car.

The Matt Ryan era is almost over for the Atlanta Falcons; he'll become an unrestricted free agent in 2024, but the team has a potential out in 2022, set to save $23.8 million in cap space if they cut or trade him after June 1. A.J. McCarron and Josh Rosen will become free agents in March.

Over in Denver, the only quarterback the Broncos will have under contract when the new league year hits is 2019 second-round pick Drew Lock, whose rookie contract is set to expire in 2023.

Denver just signed Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett this offseason and is a constant rumored trade destination for Aaron Rodgers, but that's no surefire plan; Rodgers could return to the Packers or retire altogether this offseason.

Jimmy Garoppolo and Russell Wilson are also thrown around in trade rumors frequently, but again, that can't be a Plan A for any of these teams.

The other teams that could be considered QB-needy are the Washington Commanders, who have three signal-callers (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Garrett Gilbert and Kyle Allen) set to become free agents, which would leave only Taylor Heinicke under contract, as well as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Tom Brady at long last announcing his retirement.

Mason Rudolph is the only Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback with an active contract beyond 2022, so they will need depth as well.

Of these teams, some have players who can start in 2022 but need a backup or training-camp competition. Some of those players, like Mills, Wilson and Lock, could be the guy in the future, but this upcoming season is crucial for figuring that out.

On the other hand, the Bucs and possibly the Panthers need to acquire a player who can start games now, and this draft class is not the one for that. Those could be the teams that draft Ridder, the one QB in this class who could be ready to start sometime in his rookie season after sitting for half a year.

But none of the other prospects in this year's class can likely provide immediate help to these clubs.

The teams on this list who are looking for a new prospect to build their offense around, like the Bucs, Panthers and Steelers, need to bide their time until Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud enter the draft in 2023.

But the others who simply need depth should use free agency rather than the draft to bring in the help they need for this upcoming season.

If you were starting an NFL franchise today, you wouldn't be overwhelmed by the options expected to be available: Fitzpatrick, Andy Dalton, Newton, Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater, Marcus Mariota, Joe Flacco, Mitchell Trubisky.

However, for teams that potentially only need short-term help or training-camp competition for young signal-callers the jury is still out on, more experienced players such as Fitzpatrick or Dalton make sense. Both over 30, they won't break the bank as short-term rentals.

For teams that don't have a potential future franchise cornerstone on the roster, seeing if middle-of-the-road players such as Taylor, Bridgewater, Mariota or Trubisky could have more success in their systems than at their previous stops is a worthwhile exercise that also shouldn't involve multiyear contracts for tens of millions.

None of this is to say one of these teams, or another franchise not mentioned here with an aging starter, won't take a chance on Pickett or Willis if they think they could become a multiyear starter down the road.

But this offseason, teams can use these free-agent veterans for exactly what they are: a one-year bridge until the 2023 draft rolls around.

         

Active NFL team contracts via Spotrac.

Cleveland Browns Must Draft a QB on Day 2 of the 2022 NFL Draft

Feb 11, 2022
PITTSBURGH, PA - JANUARY 03:   Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks deep in the end zone for a receiver in the fourth quarter during the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns on January 03, 2022 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - JANUARY 03: Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) looks deep in the end zone for a receiver in the fourth quarter during the game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns on January 03, 2022 at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Shelley Lipton/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The mere mention of Baker Mayfield on social media will cause an avalanche of responses from the internet ether. He's easily one of the NFL's most divisive figures. 

Mayfield also serves as the most logical path forward for the Cleveland Browns in 2022.

But the organization shouldn't bank on a bounce-back year without having a contingency plan. A quarterback selection on Day 2 of April's draft will create competition and a fallback option at the game's most important position. It would also give the 2018 No. 1 overall pick an opportunity to prove himself during the fifth year of his rookie contract. 

The commitment the organization already made to Mayfield is an important part of this approach. No franchise should become beholden to the sunk-cost fallacy, but multiple factors will come into play in this situation, starting with the quarterback's contractual status. 

A year ago, a Mayfield extension after a standout 2021 season seemed inevitable. After all, Cleveland appeared to be a team on the rise, as it was coming off a playoff victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers and gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they could handle in the divisional round.

From Week 7 on, the league MVP, Aaron Rodgers, was the only quarterback to receive a higher passing grade than Mayfield, according to Pro Football Focus. The 2017 Heisman Trophy winner also set the NFL rookie record with 27 touchdown passes in 2018 (which Justin Herbert surpassed two years later with 31). 

Cleveland had every reason to believe in its supposed franchise quarterback.

All the goodwill both the team and its quarterback built disappeared rather quickly during a disappointing 8-9 campaign, though. Mayfield garnered and deserved the lion's share of the blame after he regressed. The quarterback suffered a torn labrum and fractured humerus bone in his non-throwing shoulder in Week 2 and never looked the same for the rest of the season.

Bad habits developed, and previous issues in his mechanics became exacerbated. His feet were rarely tied to his upper body, which created off-target throws and turnovers even when certain attempts were available. In fact, Mayfield's 56 interceptions are the most by any quarterback since he entered the league. 

The give-and-take with him can be maddening. Some might look at this season's injurieswhich extended to a balky knee and heel bruiseand excuse some of the quarterback's play

Backup quarterback Case Keenum told reporters after the season:

"I did have a front-row seat to one of the gutsiest, toughest performances of a quarterback playing in a season that I have ever seen. ... I think his entire season he was battling a lot of things. He is one of the toughest guys I know, and he is a fighter. He came to fight every single day and pushed through a lot of adversity just to get on the field on Sundays."

Even so, Mayfield took the field almost every week and needed to produce. He didn't. 

The Browns now reside in the worst possible spot for any franchise: They're mediocre and lack a clear picture of what to do behind center. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Herbert aren't leaving the AFC anytime soon. Every other team in the conference is playing catch-up. 

Viable alternatives aren't readily available either. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson aren't guaranteed to go anywhere, and Cleveland wouldn't top the star duo's list of potential suitors even if they did. The Minnesota Vikings and Las Vegas Raiders sit in a similar position to the Browns with Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr. Jimmy Garoppolo, who expects to be traded, proved he's every bit as limiting as he is helpful during the San Francisco 49ers' success in recent years. 

The NFL remains a league of haves and have-nots. Either a team has a true franchise quarterback or it doesn't. The position serves as the delineation between those organizations that legitimately compete for Super Bowls on a yearly basis and those that don't.

In Cleveland, Mayfield could still turn out to be the guy, depending on which version shows up this fall. But he still has a lot to prove and has only one remaining season to do so. General manager Andrew Berry, meanwhile, can't leave this offseason without another option in case things go south. The Browns have too much talent to waste it for a second straight season. 

Mayfield will almost certainly be the starter unless something drastic occurs. The team previously believed in him and already picked up his fifth-year option. However, these things don't mean Berry and Co. should be content. 

Keenum, who turns 34 next month, is an excellent backup. At the same time, he doesn't have upside as a starter. Besides, the Browns can release him and save $7.1 million instead of having him absorb $8.4 million of the upcoming salary cap. 

The Browns are essentially left with one proper way to address the position while still moving forward with Mayfield in the short term: the draft.

Former NFL general manager Ron Wolf believed in drafting a quarterback every year. Others no longer adhere to this approach, but it's logical. Wolf had Brett Favre in place, and the ironman never missed games. Yet, the Packers benefited multiple times from drafting and developing other signal-callers, only to ship them elsewhere. 

While the situation isn't exactly the same in Cleveland, the Browns can adhere to Wolf's tactic to build the most competitive, talented quarterback room possible for the upcoming season and possibly longer. 

Here's the catch: A suspect quarterback class should prevent the Browns from considering any prospect in the first round. Instead, the addition of a premium wide receiver to help Mayfield or another pass-rusher to replace Jadeveon Clowney should take priority. 

Day 2 should be the sweet spot, as Cleveland has three selections among the second and third rounds. (The Browns are expected to receive a compensatory pick for the development of executive Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, whom the Minnesota Vikings hired as their general manager this offseason.) 

Because of the uncertainty surrounding this year's quarterback class, how the prospects stack up individually and where they could fall is dubious at best. Will a team take a chance on one of these prospects much earlier than expected? Who could be on the board much later than projected? No one even knows who QB1 is yet. The designation will vary, depending on which team board is being discussed. 

Last week's Senior Bowl didn't clear up matters. 

One NFC executive told CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora, "Coming off last week, you'd have to say that [Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett is] the guy."

La Canfora's report went on to say Pickett could be selected as high as sixth overall. 

But an AFC executive told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler: "[Liberty's Malik Willis] played better last year than this year, but he's super athletic, runs well and has a quick release. That's going to be tough for some to ignore."

The Browns can take advantage of the uncertainty if something unexpected occurs. While this class certainly presents question marks, there's something to like about each of the top QB prospects. 

Willis has the most upside as a raw athlete who possesses high-end arm talent. Buzz built at the Mobile, Alabama, showcase that he could be the first quarterback off the board. 

The dichotomy between these two prospects is fascinating since Pickett is often considered the most pro-ready option, but he has the lowest ceiling, while Willis is jam-packed with potential but might have the furthest to go to become an NFL passer.

Then, there's Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, who didn't particularly impress during Senior Bowl week yet performed well in the actual game and had a few high-level throws. Bleacher Report's scouting department graded Ridder as the only first-round talent among the entire group. 

B/R scout Nate Tice wrote:

"Overall, Ridder is a competitive player who showed a leap in improvement throughout the 2021 season. He's athletic but doesn't just rely on his legs to make plays happen and constantly showed an advanced understanding of Cincinnati's offense with his pre- and post-snap operation. His ability to operate from the pocket with his polished movement and balance, while still maintaining the athleticism to create plays when things break down, is a fun package."

Some combination of those signal-callers, if not all three, could be off the board in the opening frame. Or, one might slide.

The idea of one of them doing so may be fanciful to some. Based purely on positional value, that's a logical thought. Then again, the Browns found a way to draft Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah in the second round after the standout inexplicably slid despite being a consensus first-round talent in 2021. So, the possibility is there, particularly when so much skepticism exists with this group of signal-callers. 

The options don't stop with the top three. 

Ole Miss' Matt Corral is a quick-release artist who fires from multiple arm angles. Concerns about his potential involve his slight frame at a listed 6'2" and 205 pounds and the fact that he played in a simplistic, quarterback-friendly scheme. He might be the perfect candidate to groom for a year before he's ready to start. 

North Carolina's Sam Howell, at 6'1", 220 pounds, is most often compared to Mayfield for their similar builds and competitive natures. Howell is slightly thicker and a little better runner, but he wasn't nearly as efficient in college. However, the idea of bringing in a similar talent to keep the offense intact might appeal to head coach/play-caller Kevin Stefanski. 

Western Kentucky's Bailey Zappe shouldn't be overlooked, even though he doesn't have the raw arm strength some others do in this class. Zappe broke FBS records with 5,967 passing yards and 62 touchdown tosses during the 2021 campaign. Considering the production and skill set, he's reminiscent of Keenum when he left the Houston Cougars in 2012. Zappe could slide right into Keenum's spot and eventually challenge for the job. 

Cleveland's primary offseason goal should be to build up the quarterback position so it's not a hindrance. Who that signal-caller will be remains in question.

Maybe the Browns mirror the Philadelphia Eagles, who selected Jalen Hurts in 2020 while Carson Wentz was still on the roster. Wentz is gone and Hurts has earned the job. This couldn't have occurred without some foresight by Philadelphia's front office and a willingness to invest another high pick in an intriguing quarterback prospect. And Berry did spend a year working with the Eagles front office before he became the Browns general manager. 

Mayfield is the obvious option in Cleveland for at least one more season. However, Berry can hedge the franchise's bet with another smart investment to make sure the position is set—whether Mayfield proves he's the long-term answer or another up-and-comer gets a shot to start. 

Brent Sobleski covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @brentsobleski. Salary-cap information via Spotrac unless otherwise noted.

NFL Draft 2022 Rumors: Panthers Have Taken 'Strong Shine' to Kenny Pickett

Feb 9, 2022
National Team quarterback Kenny Pickett, of Pittsburgh, throws a pass during the first half of an NCAA Senior Bowl college football game, Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
National Team quarterback Kenny Pickett, of Pittsburgh, throws a pass during the first half of an NCAA Senior Bowl college football game, Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

The Carolina Panthers reportedly have eyes on selecting their quarterback of the future in this year's NFL draft.

Cody Benjamin of CBSSports.com reported Wednesday that he was hearing from sources that the Panthers were enamored with Pitt quarterback Kenny Pickett, and they could choose him with the No. 6 pick.

"Word is, the Panthers are taking a strong shine to Pickett, which makes sense on multiple levels," Benjamin wrote.

After putting together a stellar senior season at Pitt, Pickett further boosted his draft stock last weekend at the Senior Bowl. He completed all six of his pass attempts for 89 yards and a touchdown in one quarter of play.

The Panthers dealt with wildly inconsistent quarterback play last season. Sam Darnold started the year and led the team to a 3-0 record, but his propensity for turnovers returned, and the team went on a four-game losing streak before he suffered a shoulder injury.

Carolina turned to backup P.J. Walker and even brought back 2015 NFL MVP Cam Newton, but neither was a viable solution. The Panthers ended the year with seven straight losses to finish with a record of 5-12.

Despite having Darnold in the fold for next season, Benjamin wrote that people around the league believe the Panthers won't let Pickett get away.

"I don't think he makes it past the Panthers," one evaluator who has done extensive work on Pickett told Benjamin. "Their owner [David Tepper] is a huge Pitt booster. He hasn't invested draft capital in a quarterback yet. He has to know the Steelers like him [Tepper is a former minority investor in the Steelers]. I think that's a fit."

Whether they select a quarterback in the draft or not, the Panthers offense is expected to look different next year after the hiring of new offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo under head coach Matt Rhule.

Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson Headline 2022 NFL Draft Combine Invites

Feb 9, 2022
Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux gestures during an NCAA college football game against Washington, Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021, in Seattle. Oregon won 26-16. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)
Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux gestures during an NCAA college football game against Washington, Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021, in Seattle. Oregon won 26-16. (AP Photo/Stephen Brashear)

The NFL has invited 324 players to the 2022 scouting combine, including potential top draft picks Kayvon Thibodeaux and Aidan Hutchinson. 

The league released the full list of prospects invited to the event, which will be held at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis from March 1-7.

Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal, Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett, Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder and North Carolina State offensive lineman Ickey Ekwonu are among the other potential first-round talents who received an invite to Indianapolis. 

Several top players will often attend the combine but won't go through any of the workouts. 

During the last in-person combine in 2020, Joe Burrow and Chase Young chose not to participate in any on-field work. They were the top two picks in their draft class. 

Top prospects will often save their workouts for pro days held at their college campus. It is a more controlled environment for the player, who gets to do work with coaches and other players he has an established chemistry with. 

Coming out of the Senior Bowl last week, B/R's NFL scouting department updated its top 200 players in the 2022 draft. 

Thibodeaux, Ekwonu and Neal are the top three players available. B/R scout Derrik Klassen compared Thibodeaux to a better version of Jacksonville Jaguars edge defender Josh Allen: 

"It may take a year or two for Thibodeaux's technique and pass-rushing plan to catch up to his talent, but the fact that he has been as effective as he has to this point while only showing adequate hand usage is a testament to all the other tools he has. Thibodeaux can be a good player in any scheme right out of the gate and has the long-term potential to be an All-Pro."

The Jaguars own the top pick for the second consecutive year. They landed Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall last year. New head coach Doug Pederson and his staff will have a big decision to make with their first pick. 

Thibodeaux and Neal would seem to be the most likely candidates. Thibodeaux can be the anchor on the defensive line, next to Allen. Neal could give the Jaguars a franchise player at left tackle to protect Lawrence's blind side. 

The 2022 NFL draft will take place at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada, from April 28-30.    

Why Aidan Hutchinson Is Not a Lock to Be NFL Draft's Top Pass-Rusher

Feb 9, 2022
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - DECEMBER 31: Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) during the Capital One Orange Bowl game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Michigan Wolverines on December 31, 2021 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fl.  (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MIAMI GARDENS, FL - DECEMBER 31: Michigan Wolverines defensive end Aidan Hutchinson (97) during the Capital One Orange Bowl game between the Georgia Bulldogs and the Michigan Wolverines on December 31, 2021 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

While evaluating prospects, everyone has their own measure of upside, which is a subjective word that's tossed around a lot during the NFL draft season. A player's potential is in the eye of the team that's making the assessment.

Last month, after Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson declared for the 2022 draft, he had some buzz as the potential No. 1 overall pick. However, according to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, a front-office executive didn't highlight Hutchinson's upside but rather his high floor. 

"One NFC exec put it this way with Hutchinson: He might not be a home run, but he's, at worst, a stand-up double," Fowler wrote. "In other words, people around the league believe Hutchinson has virtually no risk of being a bust, a clean prospect in every way." 

This isn't the best compliment for potential top draft prospects. Within some circles, high-risk, high-reward players trump low-ceiling rookies who have a lesser chance of becoming a bust, and that's why some draftniks have dropped Hutchinson a few spots on their big boards.

Two prospects could leapfrog Hutchinson on draft day.

Bleacher Report released its post-Senior Bowl rankings Tuesday, with Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux (9.2) and Purdue's George Karlaftis (8.9) graded higher than Hutchinson (8.6).

B/R's scouts listed traits that distinguished some of the top defensive ends, and to them, Hutchinson didn't stand out in any particular fashion, which coincides with one NFL executive's thought that he isn't a "home run" but more of a solid all-around prospect. 

Based on B/R's rankings, Thibodeaux is the best speed rusher, and Karlaftis separates himself with power and versatility. 

Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux
Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux

Talent evaluators who pay close attention to a pass-rusher's flexibility, bend around the corner (ability to get skinny in tight spots) and burst off the edge will likely favor Thibodeaux, who's exceptionally athletic. As noted, he's going to use speed to beat offensive linemen after a quick get-off out of his stance. Few 300-plus-pounders can mirror him with their footwork. 

In his most recent mock draft, ESPN's Jordan Reid slotted Thibodeaux to the Detroit Lions at No. 2 because of his moldable traits and potential.

"In this scenario, they'd get their choice of either of the class' top defensive ends," Reid wrote. "They could bet on the raw talent of Thibodeaux, who has more upside than the polished Aidan Hutchinson." 

From Reid's perspective, the Lions, who generated the fourth-lowest quarterback pressure rate (20.5 percent) and ranked 30th in sacks (30) this past season, need to swing for the fences and go for the home run hit at No. 2. 

Also worthy of note, the Lions employ a lot of odd-man fronts with stand-up pass-rushers using their speed and agility off the edge, which suits Thibodeaux's strengths. 

Derrik Klassen of B/R's scouting department went into detail about Thibodeaux's attributes and how Hutchinson's shortcomings could knock him out of the top five. 

"For me, Hutchinson is a good prospect, but I just have too many questions about his flexibility and fluidity in space," Klassen said. "The power, hand usage, and lateral quickness are all there, but it's hard for me to get behind a pass-rusher in the top five with that kind of stiffness. Thibodeaux quite easily outshines Hutchinson in that respect."

On top of that, we shouldn't overlook Thibodeaux's early production. He recorded 14 tackles for loss and nine sacks as a true freshman and subsequently landed on watch lists for the next season. In three collegiate campaigns, he accumulated 122 tackles, 35.5 for loss and 19 sacks.

Before a dominant 2021 season with 16.5 tackles for loss and 14 sacks, Hutchinson had 11.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks between the 2018 and 2020 terms. Perhaps Hutchinson's leg fracture in November 2020 that limited him to just two games that season prevented the pass-rusher from breaking out a year sooner.

Nonetheless, will Hutchinson build momentum from his one standout year, or was it a flash in the pan? 

Teams will dig into Hutchinson's pre-2021 tape to find out where he's improved and what hindered him early in his collegiate career to project his potential on the pro level.

ESPN's Todd McShay offered another perspective—one that's not so flattering about Thibodeaux but opens the door for other prospects to sneak into the top five.

"His ceiling is high, but the floor is lower than what you want for a top-five pick. And based on a handful of conversations, it wouldn't shock me if Thibodeaux fell out of the top five. Speaking of which, it was very apparent this week that the top of the draft isn't nearly as set as it normally is at this point. Picks at the top of the first round might be a little more based on team flavor than recent years."

WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - SEPTEMBER 25: Purdue Boilermakers defensive end George Karlaftis (5) celebrates after a defensive stop during the college football game between the Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois Fighting Illini on September 25, 2021, at Ross-Ade St
WEST LAFAYETTE, IN - SEPTEMBER 25: Purdue Boilermakers defensive end George Karlaftis (5) celebrates after a defensive stop during the college football game between the Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois Fighting Illini on September 25, 2021, at Ross-Ade St

Karlaftis' overall sack numbers don't match up to Hutchinson's or Thibodeaux's production, but as McShay points out, a team's preference could bring different factors into play on draft day. 

At 6'4", 275 pounds, Karlaftis can play in even- and odd-man fronts because of his power, quickness and explosiveness at the point of attack on both run and pass downs. Unlike Hutchinson, who needed years to blossom into an impact player, Karlaftis logged 17 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks as a true freshman for Purdue.

In addition to his versatility, Karlaftis has the technical skill of a polished prospect because of his hand usage, which compensates for average arm length. He can also go into his move set with a bull rush or inside spin to beat offensive linemen while in pursuit of the quarterback. 

When it comes down to movement in tight or open spaces, Klassen gives the edge to Karlaftis over Hutchinson. 

"Karlaftis has a better way of contorting his body to work through contact and tight spaces than Hutchinson, and I think Karlaftis is a good deal more nimble in open space," Klassen said. "Overall, Hutch can still be a Pro Bowl kind of player—I'm just not there on him being a slam dunk pick at the very top of the draft." 

Hutchinson may have to answer concerns about his flexibility with high marks in the agility drills at the NFL Scouting Combine. If he looks a bit tight below the waist, we could see more mock drafts with his name below Thibodeaux and Karlaftis in the selection order.

Nevertheless, we cannot take anything away from Hutchinson's breakout senior campaign. He finished second in the Heisman Trophy race, won Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, the Ted Hendricks Award (best defensive end), the Vince Lombardi Award (best lineman) and the Ronnie Lott Award (Defensive IMPACT Player of the Year).

Hutchinson should be a top-10 pick in April, though the perception of his questionable upside and flexibility may cost him the lead spot among pass-rushers.

                       

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.