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Why Sam Howell Is 2022 NFL Draft's Biggest Sleeper QB

Apr 11, 2022
North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell (7) passes against Wake Forest during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Chapel Hill, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell (7) passes against Wake Forest during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Chapel Hill, N.C., Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

The 2022 quarterback class hasn't received rave reviews. We may not see a signal-caller go No. 1 overall for the first time since the 2017 draft. However, that means a team can pick up a high-upside, starting-caliber passer at a great value. If a general manager and head coach talk themselves into someone, Sam Howell should be in the conversation.

Howell lands in the sleeper category among this year's quarterbacks because he hasn't generated as much buzz as his peers. Brent Sobleski explained why Howell's draft stock fell in Bleacher Report's latest big board rankings.

"Howell did nothing wrong over the last month or so. However, his status compared to others in the class should always be taken into consideration. As [Cincinnati's Desmond] Ridder and Liberty's Malik Willis impress teams (in completely different ways), Howell has held relatively steady, which means he's falling further behind the rest of the class."

Howell lacks predraft flash that often pushes quarterbacks up several slots in the selection process. Moreover, some draft analysts have questions about how his traits translate to the pro level.

In a scouting report for Bleacher Report, Nate Tice highlighted the importance of Howell's development in certain aspects:

"Overall, Howell has the arm strength, athleticism and enough accuracy to make it in the NFL. But he will need a good deal of development and polish on his footwork, pocket awareness and movement, understanding of dropback concepts and overall mechanics to become a viable NFL starting quarterback.

"For any team that has the patience for a project, Howell has tools to work with, and his ability to create plays with his legs will help raise his bar as a player. But he'll need to become a more consistent player operating from the pocket to be anything more than a high-end backup or a spot starter."

Tice makes valid points—both pros and cons—about Howell's traits. In addition to those concerns, the North Carolina product also has a tendency to pat the ball before he throws, which will give NFL defenders another split second to make a play downfield.

Nonetheless, as Tice notes, Howell has the physical tools that can elevate his game. While he's not as dynamic when compared to Willis with his rushing ability and arm strength, he has the playmaking ability and the intangibles that should entice NFL teams.

For starters, Howell can throw a good deep ball, which will allow offensive coordinators to call in big plays outside the numbers. He leads receivers downfield with great ball placement:

Howell can rise to the occasion in critical moments with the ability to deliver pinpoint darts when the pocket collapses around him. According to Pro Football Focus, he has the most big-time throws—defined as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window"since 2019 and finished his collegiate career as the leader in passing touchdowns while under pressure since the 2020 season:

In the modern league with an emphasis on the passing attack, you want a gamer under center to compete against high-powered offenses. Howell will give his team a chance to win tight games because of his ability to stretch the field and complete throws in crucial moments.

At 6'1", 218 pounds, which isn't an impressive stature for a pro-level quarterback, Howell can also move the ball with his legs and absorb hits on his way to the end zone or on first-down runs.

And PFF also provided this stat on his ability to force missed tackles:

In 2021, Howell showcased more of his ball-carrying skills, rushing for 828 yards and 11 touchdowns. As a collegian, he made a lot of plays out of run-pass options, which may have stunted his progress as a traditional dropback passer, but he can produce early in his career with the help of run-pass option designs.

Last year, the Miami Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa and Philadelphia Eagles' Jalen Hurts took notable steps in development, ranking first and second, correspondingly, in passing yards out of RPOs. Tice compared Howell to the latter, though, unlike Hurts, the Tarheels standout can pose a bigger threat to boundary defenders and needs to work on his accuracy in the middle of the field.

Despite Howell's blind spots on intermediate throws, Joe Marino of The Draft Network praised his overall accuracy.

"Howell is a mostly accurate quarterback that has his share of pinpoint throws down the field and dropping the football between zones. He consistently places the ball where he intends it to go and enables his targets to have opportunities to stay up and work after the catch. He isn't without a misfire, but Howell is an accurate thrower of the football."

Some scouts may disagree with this takeaway from the film, but Marino believes Howell went through his reads as opposed to locking on to one receiver last year.

"The North Carolina offense is mostly static with plenty of binary reads," Marino wrote. "With that said, I thought Howell's ability to work progressions and scan the entire field became more evident in 2021 from my exposures. There are plenty of examples of anticipatory and second-window throws on his tape."

We should also note that Howell lost his top two running backs, Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, along with his top two receivers in Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome to the NFL last year.

Sam Howell
Sam Howell

Still, Howell had the poise to sit in the pocket, move the ball through the air and improvise with his legs. He threw for 3,056 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 62.5 completion percentage last season.

Howell can provide big plays, a rushing element and has shown signs of consistency despite changes in his supporting cast through three collegiate years. While NFL teams may not love his elongated throwing motion and the bounce at the top of his dropbacks, a coaching staff can fix those idiosyncrasies in his game with practice reps.

With Howell's steady production and physical traits, he has enough upside to become an eventual starter who surpasses the flashier quarterbacks drafted before him. Because of his experience in an RPO scheme, he would make a great fit with a team that has a quality running back and the receivers who can benefit from his vertical passing accuracy.

According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, Howell has visited the New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants, Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Among those teams, Pittsburgh makes the most sense. Last year, running back Najee Harris led all rookies with 1,200 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground. The Steelers have revamped their offensive line with the addition of center Mason Cole and guard James Daniels, so the ground attack could look a lot better than last year's 29th-ranked unit.

Furthermore, the Steelers may not have to move up from the No. 20 spot for Howell because, as Sobleski pointed out, he hasn't generated as much buildup compared to Willis or Ridder.

While the pick would look uninspiring on Day 1, Pittsburgh could have a sleeper on its radar in Howell, who can take a year to sit behind Mitch Trubisky, tighten up his mechanics and become one of the NFL's biggest surprises from the 2022 draft.

     

College statistics provided by cfbstats.com.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @MoeMoton.

NFL Agent Predicts 'Wild 1st Round' of 2022 Draft Because Of Trade Activity

Apr 11, 2022
FILE - In this April 29, 2021, file photo, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, wearing a COVID-19 vaccinated sticker, speaks during the first round of the NFL football draft in Cleveland. The NFL has informed teams they could potentially forfeit a game due to a COVID-19 outbreak among non-vaccinated players and players on both teams wouldn’t get paid that week. Commissioner Goodell said Thursday, July 22, 2021, in a memo sent to clubs that was obtained by The Associated Press that the league doesn’t anticipate adding a 19th week to accommodate games that can’t be rescheduled within the 18-week regular season. (AP Photo/Steve Luciano)
FILE - In this April 29, 2021, file photo, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell, wearing a COVID-19 vaccinated sticker, speaks during the first round of the NFL football draft in Cleveland. The NFL has informed teams they could potentially forfeit a game due to a COVID-19 outbreak among non-vaccinated players and players on both teams wouldn’t get paid that week. Commissioner Goodell said Thursday, July 22, 2021, in a memo sent to clubs that was obtained by The Associated Press that the league doesn’t anticipate adding a 19th week to accommodate games that can’t be rescheduled within the 18-week regular season. (AP Photo/Steve Luciano)

The predraft process has already seen several picks exchange hands via trades, and one agent thinks we've only reached the tip of the iceberg.

"It's going to be a wild first round," the agent told Peter King of NBC Sports. "A lot of teams think Friday night, Rounds 2 and 3, is the sweet spot of this draft, so you're going to see teams in the middle of the first motivated to deal down."

Eleven first-round picks have already exchanged hands, either via previous trades or deals made this offseason. The Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs have already made moves to add first-round selections since the beginning of the new league year.

While there have been drafts where more than half of the first-round picks have ultimately been swapped around, this type of movement in the predraft period is rare. Blockbuster trades of Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill have created a ripple effect across the league in what's become an increasingly intriguing draft.

A non-quarterback is set to go with the No. 1 overall pick for the first time since 2017, and it's possible a quarterback is not taken in the first five picks for the first time since 2013. As teams continue to jockey for position across the draft board, it's almost certain a team needing a quarterback will move up to roll the dice on Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett.

While they won't be involved in deals that include first-round picks, Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo seem likely to find new homes that include the exchange of draft picks this month. Mayfield has already been replaced by Watson as Cleveland's franchise quarterback, and the 49ers are set to move on from Garoppolo in favor of Trey Lance, who they traded multiple picks to move up and grab last season.

NFL Draft 2022 Rumors: Falcons Targeting WR with No. 8 Pick 'Hottest' Buzz

Apr 8, 2022
ARLINGTON, TX - APRIL 26:  The Atlanta Falcons logo is seen on a video board during the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft at AT&T Stadium on April 26, 2018 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX - APRIL 26: The Atlanta Falcons logo is seen on a video board during the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft at AT&T Stadium on April 26, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

The Atlanta Falcons are reportedly targeting a wide receiver with the No. 8 overall pick in this month's NFL draft.

Matt Miller of ESPN reported the "hottest rumor" is the Falcons targeting a pass-catcher for the second straight draft. Atlanta selected tight end Kyle Pitts with the No. 4 pick a year ago.

While it's rare for a team to draft a pass-catcher at the top of two straight drafts, the Falcons are in a unique scenario after losing Calvin Ridley to a one-year suspension for gambling.

After sitting out the free-agent period at wide receiver and not landing anyone at the position via trade, the team's depth chart is essentially barren of any top talent. Olamide Zaccheaus currently projects as the Falcons' top wide receiver next season.

The Falcons could be in a position to land the top receiver in this class as well. Wideout is considered arguably the deepest position in this class, with B/R's scouting department ranking six receivers in their top 21 players. USC's Drake London is considered the best of the bunch at No. 3 overall, but it's possible he slides out of the top five because of the overall depth of the position.

London recorded 88 receptions for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns last season in only eight games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury that's also prevented him from working out for teams during the draft process. He's set to have a pro day April 15.

The Falcons don't appear particularly concerned with competing for division titles this season after trading away Matt Ryan following their failed pursuit of Deshaun Watson. It's likely Atlanta uses 2022 as a gap year before drafting or trading for its quarterback of the future a year from now—likely when said quarterback can have two promising young weapons in Pitts and a wideout to be named. 

2022 NFL Draft Rumors: 'Considerable Buzz' Desmond Ridder Will Be Picked in Top 15

Apr 8, 2022
Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder throws during the NFL football scouting combine, Thursday, March 3, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder throws during the NFL football scouting combine, Thursday, March 3, 2022, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)

The idea of Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder getting taken in the 2022 NFL draft's top 15 picks is reportedly picking up steam.

According to ESPN's Matt Miller, there is "legitimate buzz" that Ridder could be a top-15 pick after it initially looked like he would be a Day 2 selection early in the draft process. 

Ridder is seemingly one of four quarterbacks with a strong chance to go in the first round of the draft later this month, along with Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett, Liberty's Malik Willis and Ole Miss' Matt Corral.

Miller provided several reasons for Ridder's headway.

For starters, Ridder reportedly "wowed" NFL decision-makers with his interviews, dating as far back as the Senior Bowl. Miller also wrote that teams love Ridder's "experience, leadership, physical ability and confidence."

Also, Ridder showcased some impressive athleticism at the NFL Scouting Combine, running the 40-yard dash in 4.52 seconds, which cemented him as one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the draft.

One can only assume that NFL teams are taking his college production into account as well since he far overshadows other quarterbacks in this year's class in that regard.

Ridder's 44 career wins as a starting quarterback is third in FBS history, plus he became the first quarterback to lead a non-Power 5 team—excluding independent Notre Dame—to the College Football Playoff when he took the Bearcats to the CFP last season.

His overall numbers as a four-year starter at Cincinnati were strong, but Ridder was at his best as a senior last season. He completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 3,334 yards, 30 touchdowns and eight interceptions while also rushing for 355 yards and six scores.

NFL Network insider Peter Schrager climbed aboard the hype train publicly on Thursday when he predicted that Ridder would go 32nd overall to the Detroit Lions in his first mock draft.

As part of his analysis, Schrager wrote that NFL teams believe Ridder has the "it" factor needed to be successful at the next level.

Given recent reports, the bigger question for Ridder now seems to be how high he will go in the first round rather than if he will be a first-round selection.

Miller named the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers as two teams that could have Ridder on their radar.

The Saints own the 16th and 19th overall picks in the 2022 NFL draft, while the Steelers will pick 20th. Quarterback-needy teams such as the Lions, Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks all have picks ahead of them.

With the Ridder buzz continuing to grow, it is possible the Saints or Steelers may have to trade up in order to secure Ridder if they truly view him as their quarterback of the future.

Matt Corral Rumors: Saints, Steelers, Falcons, Panthers, Eagles Meeting With QB

Apr 8, 2022
NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 01: Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Matt Corral (2) was up before the Allstate Sugar Bowl between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Baylor Bears on January 1, 2022, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Chris McDill/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NEW ORLEANS, LA - JANUARY 01: Ole Miss Rebels quarterback Matt Corral (2) was up before the Allstate Sugar Bowl between the Ole Miss Rebels and the Baylor Bears on January 1, 2022, at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Chris McDill/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral will rack up the frequent flyer miles next week as he's reportedly scheduled to visit with five teams ahead of the 2022 NFL draft.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Friday that Corral is slated for meetings with the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers.

In a year without a consensus No. 1 quarterback prospect, interviews could play an important role in determining the order the top QBs come off the board when the draft gets underway April 28 in Las Vegas.

Corral is in a competition with Liberty's Malik Willis, Pitt's Kenny Pickett and Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder to become the first QB selected.

The 23-year-old California native spent four years with the Rebels, including the past two seasons as the team's starting quarterback. He completed 67.3 percent of his throws for 8,287 yards with 57 touchdowns and 23 interceptions in 37 games. He also rushed for 1,357 yards and 18 scores.

While his natural playmaking ability was evident at Ole Miss, there are questions about how he'll handle more complex NFL defensive schemes.

Bleacher Report's Nate Tice described Corral as a "single-read QB at this point in time" in his predraft scouting report.

"Played in an offensive system that heavily featured run-pass options and easier progressions," Tice wrote. "His ability to progress on true dropback concepts will be a question mark until proven otherwise."

That said, in a class where every quarterback has question marks, a coaching staff may see Corral's upside and take a chance on the 2021 All-SEC second team selection under the belief it can help him develop that aspect of his game.

None of his visits next week qualify as a surprise. All five of the teams mentioned have been heavily linked to the quarterback market, including the Eagles despite having Jalen Hurts on their roster.

The Panthers (No. 6 pick) and Falcons (No. 8) have the highest selections from the group, so a strong performance in those meetings could push Corral into the top-10 conversation.

Even if that doesn't come to fruition, the signal-caller should land somewhere in the opening round. He may be destined for a development year behind the likes of Jameis Winston with the Saints or Mitchell Trubisky with the Steelers, though.

That type of outcome could actually improve Corral's long-term outlook, since he won't be under pressure to perform right away.

Desmond Ridder Could Be 2022 NFL Draft's Best QB—Even over Malik Willis

Apr 8, 2022
National Team quarterback Desmond Ridder of Cincinnati (9) runs through drills during practice for the Senior Bowl NCAA college football game Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
National Team quarterback Desmond Ridder of Cincinnati (9) runs through drills during practice for the Senior Bowl NCAA college football game Thursday, Feb. 3, 2022, in Mobile, Ala. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)

There has been no shortage of words written about the quarterback class of 2022. But where the past couple of drafts produced gushing over no-doubt No. 1 overall picks in Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow, this year has brought hand-wringing over the relative lack of talent at the position. In Mel Kiper's latest mock draft at ESPN, not a single signal-caller resides in the top 10 picks.

Now, when April 28 rolls around, that's not going to happen—there are at least three teams picking in the top 10 with a glaring need under center in the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks. And while it's hardly unanimous who the cream of this year's crop is, the majority of draftniks appear to have settled on Liberty's Malik Willis as "the guy." There has been speculation that Willis could go as high as No. 2 overall to the Detroit Lions.

Willis has arm strength, athleticism and upside galore. With some time to adjust to the pro game, he could have a fine career. But five years from now, Willis won't be looked back on as the best quarterback of the class of 2022. Neither will Kenny Pickett of Pitt. Nor Matt Corral of Ole Miss. Nor Sam Howell of North Carolina.

The player who will wind up being the best signal-caller from the 2022 draft doesn't have the strongest arm of the group. Or the most elusiveness. What he does have is both of those qualities in more than ample measure. Plus leadership skills. And a history of winning.

That quarterback is Desmond Ridder of Cincinnati (B/R Scouting Report).

Ridder is coming off a dream season with the Bearcats, having led the team to a berth in the College Football Playoff. Playing with a top-10 wide receiver prospect in Alec Pierce, the 6'3", 211-pound Ridder completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 3,334 yards with 30 touchdowns against just eight interceptions. He also did damage with his legs, picking up 355 more yards and six scores on the ground.

As Bleacher Report's Nate Tice wrote, Ridder showed excellent ability to both operate from the pocket and use his 4.49-second 40-yard-dash speed to extend plays when things go awry.

"Overall, Ridder is a competitive player who showed a leap in improvement throughout the 2021 season. He's athletic but doesn't just rely on his legs to make plays happen and constantly showed an advanced understanding of Cincinnati's offense with his pre- and post-snap operation. His ability to operate from the pocket with his polished movement and balance, while still maintaining the athleticism to create plays when things break down, is a fun package. Ridder is able to operate on time and has the arm strength to drive throws and balls to the field, which allows him to attack all areas of the defense."

Tice isn't the only scout impressed with Ridder's arm talent. Oliver Hodgkinson of Pro Football Network recognized his penchant for making the big play while also possessing the arm strength to throw into traffic:

"Ridder continued to demonstrate excellent arm strength this season. He drops bombs downfield with unerring regularity, making at least one play each game that takes your breath away. In addition to his ability to push the ball downfield, Ridder can generate tremendous velocity on short throws while zipping the ball from far hash to the sideline. This velocity also allows him to fit passes into tight windows."

There's also the matter of Ridder's game experience in Cincinnati's pro-style offense. Ridder was a four-year starter for the Bearcats, starting 48 games in a system that is more similar to NFL schemes than many collegiate offenses. Per Tyler Wise of Steelers Depot, during an impressive showing at Senior Bowl practice, Ridder said be believes that experience can only help his transition to the NFL:

"Our offense was more of a spread offense. Early on in my career, it was a run-heavy offense using the run game to set up the pass game. And then, later on, it got more spread out, like I said, where it might have been a pure progression or it could have been man/zone read, so you know, it was kind of all over the place. There are a lot of similar concepts. We have a lot out here [at the Senior Bowl] that I had back in college and you know, it's made it easy for the transition. I had great coaches that helped me along the way to obviously learn and master offensive at Cincinnati, and it's just made it easy for me."

Ridder also isn't short on confidence. Per ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, he has already set his sights on dethroning the starting quarterback for whatever team drafts him and earning playing time as a rookie.

"I talked to a team who interviewed Ridder, who said that he had a plan outlined for how he was going to beat out a veteran in a training-camp setting and become a starter in this league Year 1," Fowler reported.

Ridder went one further when asked by Chris Rosvoglou of The Spun why he should be the first quarterback drafted in 2022.

"I would say because [I'm] a winner, [I'm] tough, [I'm] a great leader, and [I make] plays when plays aren't there to be made. That's why teams should choose me as the No. 1 quarterback. I'm going to help an organization win a Super Bowl."

At this point, it's cold-water time. The reality is that Ridder all but certainly isn't going to be the first quarterback whose name is called on April 28. Nor the second. He probably won't be the third. And for all the things Ridder does well, his game isn't flawless.

Ridder's accuracy can be prone to fits of inconsistency. He'll connect on a beautifully thrown 30-yard post route and then miss on a 10-yard out. He also needs to improve his anticipation—to get better at seeing where the window will be and throwing his receivers open.

But those are areas in which Ridder can improve with additional coaching and experience. And in some respects, not being drafted earlier in Round 1 could be a blessing in disguise. Were Ridder to land with a team like the New Orleans Saints (Nos. 16 and 19) or the Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 20), he'd benefit from both a solid supporting cast and the potential for a "redshirt" year. Heading to Detroit at the end of the first or early in the second would at least offer the latter. And if the Seattle Seahawks were to select Ridder In Round 2, he'd get his wish to compete to start in short order and a pair of dangerous wide receivers in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

Again, no one is arguing that Ridder has the biggest arm of the 2022 class. Or that he's the most dangerous scrambler. But while Ridder may not be the best at any one thing, he's really good at them all.

Size? Check, although he could stand to add a little weight.

Arm strength? Ridder has plenty.

Accuracy? It's there, and with improved consistency, it could be a real strength of Ridder's game.

Athleticism and escapability? You bet.

Experience? More than any other signal-caller in the draft.

Confidence and leadership ability? In spades.

Ridder might not have the sky-high ceiling Willis does, but he is infinitely more NFL-ready, has an exponentially higher floor and is a more complete package as a player. Getting compared to Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys (as Ridder was by Tice) isn't the worst thing to be said about a prospect.

Bleacher Report's NFL draft scouts have pored over countless hours of video of all this year's top collegiate prospects. They have watched Willis. And Pickett. And Howell. And Corral. And Ridder.

After doing all that research, they ranked Ridder as the No. 1 quarterback in the class—a full 31 spots ahead of Willis (the No. 2 QB) on their big board.

It's not an opinion held by the majority of the draft community.

But it's shared by this writer.

And with the benefit of a few years' hindsight, it's one that will prove to have been spot-on.