Josh Allen

Josh Allen is the happiest man in the NFL after reportedly agreeing to a six-year, $258 million contract extension with the Buffalo Bills.

Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield likely aren't far behind on the happiness spectrum.

Allen's deal is the first to get completed among the trio of 2018 first-round quarterbacks and will likely set the tone for negotiations for Jackson and Mayfield in the coming weeks.

Of the two quarterbacks, Jackson's deal feels more likely to get done ahead of the regular season. The 2019 NFL MVP now has a base set for his demands; the Ravens have little recourse but to give Jackson a contract that exceeds Allen's on an annual value.

Jackson has emerged as perhaps the most dynamic dual-threat quarterback the sport has ever seen since taking over as Ravens starter midway through the 2018 season. Baltimore is 30-7 in regular-season games started by Jackson, and while he's not a Patrick Mahomes-level passer, he's shown massive improvements since his Heisman-winning tenure at Louisville. Even Jackson's biggest fans never expected him to complete 64 percent of his passes at the NFL level. 

By contrast, Allen has exactly one good season of football under his belt. It was a spectacular season, but there were concerns as to whether he was a franchise quarterback heading into 2020. In his first 27 starts, Allen threw for 5,163 yards and 30 touchdowns against 21 interceptions while completing 56.3 percent of his passes. He threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns against 10 picks alone last season.

The Bills were satisfied enough with his brilliant campaign to anchor their franchise to his continued development.

Lamar Jackson Contract Projection

4 years, $180 million ($135 million guaranteed) 

The Ravens should have no immediate concerns about Jackson. He's proved himself for three straight seasons—even if the 1-3 playoff record hasn't quite lived up to the regular-season brilliance.

Where Baltimore and Jackson may have an issue is the number of years on his new contract. There's no question Jackson's skill set is unique; at least half of his value as a quarterback is due to his transcendent scrambling ability.  He's remained remarkably healthy during his NFL career, but Jackson's playing style does leave him at a higher risk of injury.

A six-year extension is probably out of the question for that reason; the Ravens should look at the four-year, $160 million deal given to Dak Prescott as a sort of low-end beginning point for talks.

Baker Mayfield Contract Projection

5 years, $185 million ($120 million guaranteed)  

(*if Mayfield signs before Week 1)

Mayfield may be better served waiting out the 2021 regular season and betting on himself. Just as the Ravens have no reasonable argument to pay Jackson less than Allen, Mayfield has no reasonable position that states he should be paid as much or more than Allen.

Mayfield has posted a 23-22 record as a starter while never throwing for more than 3,827 yards in a season. His 43 interceptions are 12 more than the formerly mistake-prone Allen and more than double Jackson's career total (18). While it's true Mayfield has more attempts than Jackson, his interception rate (2.9)  is also a full percentage point higher than his  AFC  North rival's (1.9).

Mayfield is clearly the third-place finisher in this race, a solid-but-unspectacular quarterback who seems best served as a game manager in the Browns' run-heavy offense. There may be no better-protected quarterback in football when you factor in Cleveland's excellent offensive line and running game.

Side-by-side, it's hard to find any reason the Browns should even match the $160 million over four years given to Prescott. Based on talent and production, Mayfield should slot in around that $30-35 million per season range.

Mayfield almost certainly wants more than that, and Allen's deal may set the watermark for his desires. Unless the Browns overpay, the two sides may want to allow 2021 to play out and get another season's worth of data to see where Mayfield stands among his contemporaries. 

After being one of the NFL's best quarterbacks in 2020, Josh Allen will now be paid like an elite player at the position. 

The Buffalo Bills announced Friday they have signed Allen to a six-year contract extension through the 2028 season. 

Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, the deal will pay Allen $150 million guaranteed and up to $258 million total.

In terms of average annual salary based on the total value, Allen's $43 million ranks second to Patrick Mahomes ($45 million). 

NFL QB Contracts (Total Value)

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs ($450 million)

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills ($258 million)

3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys ($160 million)

4. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans ($156 million)

5. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons ($150 million)

6. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks ($140 million)

7. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers ($137.5 million)

8. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams ($135 million)

T9. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions ($134 million)

T9. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers ($134 million)

Contract values via Spotrac.com

Despite the large salary figure attached to this deal, ESPN's Bill Barnwell is optimistic about the Bills' ability to keep building a team around their franchise quarterback:

As things currently stand, the Bills are mostly capped out for the next two seasons. They have $203.5 million in salary commitments in 2021 and $209.3 million in 2022, per Spotrac. 

NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reported in May (h/t NFL.com's Nick Shook) that the NFL and NFL Players Association agreed to a $208.2 million cap ceiling for 2022. That figure does represent an almost $26 million increase from this season ($182.5). 

It's not until after the 2022 that the Bills really have to start worrying about their current players under contract becoming free agents.

Cole Beasley, Dawson Knox, Mitch Morse, Cody Ford, A.J. Klein, Tremaine Edmunds and Jordan Poyer are among the notable Bills players whose current deals expire after the 2022 season. 

One benefit of having Allen locked in to a long-term deal is the Bills know what their cap situation will be at the most important position on the field. 

Of course, the most obvious benefit of getting Allen's contract done is the Bills don't have to worry about what to do at quarterback until at least 2029. 

After an inconsistent start to his career in 2018 and 2019, Allen exploded onto the scene last year. The Wyoming alum threw for 4,544 yards and 37 touchdowns to help the Bills win the AFC East for the first time since 1995. 

During his rookie season three years ago, Allen was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. 

Per The Ringer's Nora Princiotti, Allen's two-year improvement in completion percentage from 52.8 in 2018 to 69.2 in 2020 is the largest in NFL history. 

Thanks to Allen elevating himself to become one of the best quarterbacks in the league, the Bills advanced to the AFC Championship Game last season for the first time in 27 years. 

The Bills are returning virtually every key player from that 2020 squad, and they added high-ceiling edge rusher Gregory Rousseau from the University of Miami with the No. 30 pick in this year's draft. 

After a breakout 2020 season, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has been rewarded with a long-term contract extension. 

The Bills announced Friday that Allen has agreed to a six-year deal that will keep him with the organization through the 2028 season.

Per ESPN's Adam Schefter, Allen's contract extension includes $150 million guaranteed and can be worth up to $258 million.

There was a ticking clock on these negotiations, as general manager Brandon Beane told reporters earlier this week the two sides agreed not to hold talks once the regular season began if a deal couldn't be reached. 

"Josh and I are in lockstep on that," Beane said. "There will be no negotiating in-season. At some point we will press the pause button."

The 24-year-old is set to enter 2021 with just a $6.9 million cap hit in the fourth year of his rookie contract.

Allen is coming off a monster season in which he totaled 4,544 passing yards and 37 touchdowns, both top-five in the NFL, while adding 421 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns.

The production led to an 81.8 QBR that ranked third in the NFL behind only Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, while the Associated Press voted him as a second-team All-Pro.

Buffalo thrived behind the talented quarterback, producing the No. 2 scoring offense in the NFL while finishing 13-3 and winning its first division title since 1995. A first-round victory over the Indianapolis Colts represented the franchise's first playoff win in 25 years, and the Bills reached the AFC Championship Game before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs.

It unsurprisingly led to talk of a "massive contract extension," as Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reported in January.

Allen now has long-term financial security, while the Bills have locked down their face of the franchise for an extended stretch.

The 2018 No. 7 overall draft pick had always been known as an above-average runner, but he has made dramatic improvements as a passer over his three seasons in the NFL. After recording a 67.9 quarterback rating as a rookie, the mark jumped to 85.3 in 2019 and then 107.2 in 2020.

Allen's development gives him huge upside for the future, especially if he keeps picking up yards on the ground.

Josh Allen doesn't seem to be too worried about when he will receive a second contract from the Buffalo Bills.

"If it does [happen], great," Allen said, per Adam Schein of SiriusXM Mad Dog Radio (h/t Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk). "If it doesn't, great. I'm trying to be the best that I can be for this team this year. We've got a goal set. Like I said, it'll work itself out. ... When it happens, it happens. I'm at peace with it."

The Bills exercised the fifth-year option on Allen's contract in May, which means he is under contract through the 2022 campaign.

He is also eligible for an extension, although general manager Brandon Beane told WGR 550 (h/t Josh Alper of ProFootballTalk) the Bills will "probably put a deadline on [contract talks] at some point here in the preseason."

While the No. 7 pick in the 2018 draft struggled early in his career with accuracy, he turned the corner in 2020 as a Pro Bowler and completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 4,544 yards, 37 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while adding 421 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.

The Wyoming product led the Bills to an AFC East crown at 13-3 and took them to the conference title game for the first time since the 1993 campaign.

Allen is just 25 years old, has a strong enough arm to make almost any throw and can make plays with his legs. He is already on the shortlist of the best quarterbacks in the AFC and is coming off a deep playoff run.

It seems inevitable that Buffalo will sign Allen to an extension at some point given his progression.