Minnesota Twins

Carlos Correa has already stated his intention to become a free agent, but the Minnesota Twins intend to make a play to keep the two-time All-Star shortstop.

Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the Twins "plan to bid" on Correa in free agency and "may stretch" to sign him.

Correa told Puerto Rican newspaper El Nuevo Día (h/t ESPN.com) on Oct. 13 he's going to exercise his opt-out clause to become a free agent.

"With the year that I have had, my health and my being at the best moment of my career at 28, that is the right decision," Correa said.

This will mark the second consecutive offseason that Correa will be on the open market. He was expected to land a long-term deal last winter, but he instead opted for a three-year, $105.3 million contract with the Twins in March.

Minnesota structured the deal to provide Correa with an opt-out after each of the first two seasons. It will be interesting to see how the free-agent market for shortstops plays out this offseason.

Correa and Trea Turner are going to be available for every team to sign. Xander Bogaerts could join them if he declines his player option with the Boston Red Sox.

Heyman did note the Twins won't go to the same level for Correa as the Texas Rangers did when they signed Corey Seager to a 10-year, $325 million contract in December.

Correa had an excellent 2022 season in Minnesota. He hit .291/.366/.467 with 22 homers and 64 RBI in 136 games. The former American League Rookie of the Year has hit at least 20 homers with a .450 slugging percentage in six of the past eight seasons.

Injuries contributed to the Twins finishing a disappointing 78-84 and third place in the AL Central this season. Since winning back-to-back division titles in 2019 and 2020, they have gone 151-173 over the past two seasons combined.

Veteran shortstop Carlos Correa told El Nuevo Día newspaper (h/t ESPN) on Wednesday that he will opt out of the final two years of his contract with the Minnesota Twins and become a free agent.

The news comes as little surprise after ESPN's Buster Olney reported on May 18 that there was "an industry assumption" that Correa would opt out of his contract to become a free agent again if he ended the season on a high note.

The 28-year-old signed a three-year, $105.3 million deal with the Twins as a free agent ahead of the 2022 campaign. He went on to have a solid first season in Minnesota, slashing .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs and 64 RBI in 136 games.

However, the Twins finished third in the AL Central with a 78-84 record. They missed the playoffs in what was a disappointing season.

The 28-year-old was seeking a deal worth $330 million-$350 million in free agency before he signed with the Twins, per MLB Network's Jon Heyman. It's possible he'll be searching for the same type of long-term contract this time around.

Correa began his career with the Houston Astros, which selected him first overall in 2012. He made his MLB debut in 2015 and went on to win Rookie of the Year after slashing .279/.345/.512 with 22 home runs, 68 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 99 games.

The Puerto Rican went on to play seven seasons in Houston, earning two All-Star selections, a Gold Glove, Platinum Glove and 2017 World Series title.

One of his best seasons with the Astros came in 2017 when he hit .315/.391/.550 with 24 home runs, 84 RBI and two stolen bases in 109 games.

It's unclear which teams might be interested in adding Correa this winter.

Carlos Correa sure sounded like a man set to decline his $35.1 million player option with the Minnesota Twins for the 2023 season and become a free agent Thursday.

"When I go to the mall and I go to the Dior store and I want something, I get it. I ask how much it costs and I buy it," he told reporters. "So if you really want something, you just go get it. I'm the product here, so if they want my product, they just gotta come get it."

Carlos Correa explains to Jim Rich how the Twins can secure him for the 2023 campaign. #MNTwins pic.twitter.com/BHnBYKSjM9

— FOX 9 Sports (@Fox9Sports) September 29, 2022

Correa signed a three-year, $105.3 million contract with the Twins this past winter after spending the first seven years of his career with the Houston Astros. The deal included player options in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, however, each worth $35.1 million.

Turning down $70.2 million over two years can't be an easy decision, though the 28-year-old Correa is likely hoping to find the security that comes with a long-term contract while he's still in his prime.

The question is whether Correa will be able to secure one of the lucrative deals he's seen his contemporaries at the position sign in recent years, like Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million), Fernando Tatis Jr. (14 years, $340 million) and Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million).

Teams had the opportunity to sign him to such a deal this past offseason and abstained, so Correa opted for a short-term windfall—his $35.1 million this year led all shortstops in base salary—and the chance to hit free agency again in any of the next three offseasons.

He won't be the only high-profile shortstop on the market, however. Trea Turner will be the headliner in that regard, while Dansby Swanson is also hitting free agency, and Xander Bogaerts could opt out and join the fray.

Correa has had a strong 2022 campaign, hitting .287 with 21 homers, 61 RBI, 68 runs and an .826 OPS. But he isn't going to be the top option at his position on teams' free-agency boards, and it's fair to question if his market might play out in a similar fashion to last winter.

The Minnesota Twins announced that outfielder Byron Buxton will undergo season-ending arthroscopic knee surgery, per Dan Hayes of The Athletic.

Buxton had 28 home runs, 51 RBI and an .833 OPS in 92 games this season. He made the All-Star team for the first time in his eight-year MLB career.

Per Twins' team sources to Hayes, the surgery is considered "a cleanup," and he should be ready for spring training.

Buxton has been out of the Twins' lineup since Aug. 22. He landed on the injured list one day later with a right hip strain. The combination of the hip and knee issues ultimately kept him out for nearly half the season.

Buxton has largely been tremendous since 2019, sporting a 162-game average of 41 home runs, 91 RBI, 40 doubles and 103 runs. He's also posted a .874 OPS during that span.

Unfortunately, numerous injuries have kept him off the field for 267 of a possible 534 games from the beginning of the 2019 season until the Twins' announcement.

Buxton got off to the hottest start in baseball last year thanks to a .427 batting average with eight home runs and 14 RBI in April. However, hamstring and hip injuries in addition to a fractured hand suffered on a hit by pitch ultimately led to him missing 101 games.

The Twins signed Buxton to a seven-year, $100 million extension after the season, and that faith was rewarded with a tremendous power surge this year.

Unfortunately, Buxton will ultimately end up missing 70 games in a year that start promising for the Twins before tailspinning out of control.

Minnesota started hot with a 27-16 record and a 5.5-game lead following a six-game winning streak, but the Twins are now 73-77 and sitting 10 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the American League Central crown. They are 6-16 in their last 22 games.

As Hayes noted, the Twins were hoping Buxton would be back by now if the team was in a playoff race. However, those hopes have all but dissipated, and the Twins appear to be playing out the string at this point.

A healthy Buxton would go a long way toward the Twins bouncing back in 2023. For now, Minnesota has 12 regular-season games left starting with a three-game home series against the Los Angeles Angels.

As he's not so much fearsome as immensely frustrating for opposing pitchers, the best hitter in Major League Baseball today is a guy who basically doesn't belong in today's baseball.

It's all there in his triple-slash ranks. This guy gets his hits and takes his walks, but he's not likely to slug anyone:

• .361 AVG: 1st
• .443 OBP: 1st
• .439 SLG: 55th

It's OK if you looked at this and did a double take. Modern greats—think Juan Soto, Mike Trout and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.—don't hit like this. Heck, you have to go back to Tony Phillips in 1993 to find the last time a batter finished with an OBP over .440 and a SLG under .440.

Tony Gwynn never did it. Neither did Ichiro Suzuki, who's unsurprisingly a big fan of the guy who is doing it: Luis Arraez.

As far as how he's doing it, let's start by granting two things about the Minnesota Twins' multi-use infielder. Given that he was a .313 hitter with a .374 OBP between 2019 and 2021, this is not his first rodeo as a tough out. He also isn't devoid of power.

Arraez, 25, came into this season with a career high of four home runs, yet he has three through 58 games. And at 403 feet, the grand slam that he hit June 11 against the Tampa Bay Rays was the longest of his career.

Can't stop watching this 😍 pic.twitter.com/WxVFYbwZEo

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) June 12, 2022

But while he's clearly capable of doing so, trying to hit for power isn't Arraez's style. At 9.0 degrees and 22.2 percent, both his average launch angle and fly-ball rate are lower than ever in 2022.

In other words, Arraez wants no part of a "Fly Ball Revolution" that's very much ongoing in MLB. Since the dawn of the Statcast era in 2015, the league's launch angle and fly-ball percentage have gone up and stayed up as more and more hitters have chased the long ball.

The catch this year is that fly balls aren't traveling as far. That's not an accident, as a new model of ball and universal humidor usage have conspired to make the baseballs mushier than usual. The difficulty most hitters are having in adjusting is plainly visible in the league's collective batting average. At .241, it's the fourth-lowest in MLB history.

Though it's premature to call Arraez a trendsetter, his fellow hitters can learn something from him. For their convenience, let's break down his main lesson points.

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Don't Give Away At-Bats

You've presumably heard of the three true outcomes (i.e., strikeouts, walks and home runs) and about how they may or may not be ruining baseball by making it more boring.

But given that two of those outcomes are indeed good results for hitters, dare we say that the real problem they're facing is a shortage of what we'll call competitive at-bats?

These would be at-bats free of non-competitive results, of which there are at least two. There are strikeouts, which have a zero percent chance of producing a hit. There are also pop-ups, which in 2022 have just a 2 percent chance of going for hits.

Since batted-ball data became available in 2002, this is the first season in which more than 22 percent of plate appearances end in strikeouts and more than 10 percent of all fly balls in play are pop-ups on the infield. Strip away the strikeouts and pop-ups, and only 72 percent of at-bats have been competitive in 2022. That's down from a peak of 79 percent in 2005.

Among individual hitters, however, you can take a wild guess who's not part of the problem in 2022 by way of a large percentage of competitive at-bats:

• 1. Luis Arraez, MIN: 89.8 percent
• 2. Jose Iglesias, COL: 88.8 percent
• 3. Steven Kwan, CLE: 87.8 percent
• 4. Michael Brantley, HOU: 86.8 percent
• 5. Jose Ramirez, CLE: 85.8 percent

This mostly has to do with how Arraez's swing is geared for contact. He's extraordinarily direct to the ball, resulting in the league's second-highest contact rate (91.9 percent) and third-lowest strikeout rate (8.5 percent).

As for infield pop-ups, Arraez has a lone "1" in that column this season. Between that and his 20 strikeouts, he's given away only 21 of his 235 at-bats.

That alone has meant a high hit probability for his other 214 at-bats, though other reasons help boost his batting average all the way up to .361.

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Line Drives Are Good, but Ground Balls Can Be Too

Hitters have fallen in love with fly balls in recent years for a reason. That's where power is, as even in 2022 the .523 ISO (isolated power, or slugging percentage minus batting average) on fly balls is more than twice as high as the .239 ISO on line drives.

If it's merely hits that a hitter is after, though, line drives are the way to go. They have a .627 average in 2022, compared to .261 for fly balls.

Go figure who loves to hit line drives.

"I just only try to be hitting line drives. That's how I [contribute]," Arraez said earlier this month, according to Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. "I know Ichiro could hit home runs, but I just want to hit line drives."

And hit line drives he does. At 27.6 percent, Arraez's line-drive rate is four percentage points higher than the league average. He even gets more out of his line drives than the average hitter, batting .804 on them.

To be fair, this is where Arraez might be due for regression as the season goes along. At 91.4 mph, he hits his line drives more than 2 mph slower than the league average. Because hard-hit line drives have a better chance of becoming hits than softer-hit ones, it's no surprise that his .635 expected average on line drives is slightly lower than the league norm of .639.

Yet even if Arraez doesn't get as many line drives to find pay dirt between now and the end of the season, he should still collect plenty of hits like the first one in this clip:

Look up “professional hitter.” You’ll see this guy: @Arraez_21.#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/gose5yK1Ws

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) June 6, 2022

That was a ground ball that left his bat at 94.7 mph and easily snuck through into left field for a single. Basically, the kind of hit we might as well start calling a "Luis Arraez Special."

He actually doesn't do well (3-for-36) when he pulls the ball on the ground, which is still another unsurprising thing. He only hits those balls at an average of 84.3 mph, whereas ground balls to the pull side generally average 86.9 mph.

Yet when Arraez hits ground balls up the middle or to the left side of the field, he typically mashes them:

This is why Arraez is batting .426 on ground balls up the middle and to the opposite field, whereas the average hitter is batting only .288 when he tries that.

It's also why opposing teams don't bother shifting their infields against him. It's happened on only 3.0 percent of all pitches against him, which isn't close to the standard 56.7 percent shift rate for left-handed batters this season.

Between this and Arraez's fondness for competitive at-bats, his basic lesson on hitting can be summed up this way: The best way to beat 'em is to not make it easy for 'em.

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Oh, and Make Pitchers Work

Arraez's 2022 season would be impressive enough if his .361 average was all he had going for him. But as his .443 on-base percentage shows, he's not just hitting his way on.

Notably, he's taking ball four more frequently. His walk rate is 11.9 percent, which is a career high and a tick above Aaron Judge for 23rd among qualified hitters.

As much as anything, this aspect of Arraez's season defies common sense. Not just in the sense that less powerful hitters should theoretically see more strikes, but also in the sense that his zone discipline hasn't undergone any immediately noticeable changes. His swing rates both inside and outside the zone are roughly in line with his career rates.

Yet one thing that has changed in Arraez's approach is his willingness to let the pitcher set the tone. Even more so than in previous seasons, he's not swinging at the first pitch:

• 2019: 18.8 percent
• 2020: 19.8 percent
• 2021: 20.8 percent
• 2022: 15.3 percent

To the extent that he's finding himself in 1-0 counts more often, this is working. It's also key that Arraez isn't toning down his discipline once he is ahead in the count. Quite the contrary, in fact. When ahead in the count between 2019 and 2021, he chased 25.6 percent of the pitches he saw outside the zone. This year? Just 20.8 percent.

That's a good way to get to ball four, and Arraez also has a method for extending at-bats. He's fouling off 47.1 percent of the pitches he swings at in the "shadow" of the zone when he's behind in the count. It's just 38.3 percent for the average hitter, which is to say Arraez is on another level when it comes to defending the strike zone.

Of course, the problem with the suggestion that other hitters might be like Arraez is that he didn't choose to be the hitter he is. This is the hitter he's always been. Even before he arrived in the majors, Baseball America's scouting reports raved about him as a "hit-tool fiend" with "hand-eye coordination [that's] off the charts."

Arraez's example is nonetheless more than worthy of appreciation, and not just because he's so many different kinds of good at what he does. He's living proof that, in order to be great, a hitter doesn't necessarily have to be better at doing what everyone else is doing.

Instead, he can be the best at doing his own thing.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

Outfielder Max Kepler and reliever Emilio Pagan are among the four Minnesota Twins players who will miss this weekend's series in Toronto versus the Blue Jays because they aren't eligible to enter Canada under the country's COVID-19 regulations.

The Canadian government has more stringent entry guidelines than the U.S., as it requires people entering the country to have received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

According to the Associated Press, relievers Caleb Thielbar and Trevor Megill will also miss the three games in Toronto.

All four players were placed on the restricted list and will be eligible to play when the Twins return to the United States to start a home series against the New York Yankees on Tuesday.

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Kepler, 29, has been one of the Twins' best hitters this season. He is slashing .253/.357/.429 and is tied for second on the team with six home runs and 25 RBI.

The Germany-born Kepler is Minnesota's regular starter in right field and made his MLB debut with the Twins in 2015.

His best season occurred in 2019 when he hit .252 with a career-high 36 home runs and 90 RBI.

The 31-year-old Pagan is in his first season with the Twins after coming over in a trade from the San Diego Padres.

Pagan has split closer duties with Jhoan Duran and leads the team with seven saves in 10 chances. He is 1-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 22 strikeouts over 18 innings.

During his six-year MLB career, Pagan has pitched for the Seattle Mariners, Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, Padres and Twins. He set a career high with 20 saves in 2019 with Tampa.

Pagan said of his decision to not get vaccinated against COVID-19:

"I know that there are going to be people that are very angry for this opinion and the stance, but that's fine. I feel like I had a choice to make, and they have also a choice if they're going to be mad at me or not. ...

"I've gone to every guy in this locker room and explained where I was, and how I came up with my decision, and apologized because I do know it's hurting the team. I do not believe this is a baseball decision. This is the Canadian government. It's not even an MLB rule."

Duran will likely fill in as the full-time closer in Toronto, while outfielders Trevor Larnach and Kyle Garlick could see additional playing time in place of Kepler.

Minnesota's bullpen depth will be tested as well with both Thielbar and Megill unable to pitch.

Thielbar is 1-0 with a 5.59 ERA over 22 appearances, while Megill is 1-1 with a 1.04 ERA in five outings.

At 30-23, the Twins hold a 4.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians for first place in the American League Central.

The Minnesota Twins discovered during Monday's game against the Detroit Tigers that shortstop Carlos Correa had tested positive for COVID-19.

Manager Rocco Baldelli confirmed the news to reporters after the 7-5 loss to Detroit.

Correa is hitting .279 (.751 OPS) with three home runs and 16 RBI in his first year with Minnesota, who signed him to a three-year, $105.3 million contract last offseason.

The 27-year-old played his first seven MLB seasons with the Houston Astros, making two All-Star Games, winning the 2017 World Series and earning the 2015 American League Rookie of the Year award. He hit .277 (.837 OPS) with 133 home runs and 489 RBI during his tenure there.

This season has gone well for the Twins, which sport a 29-20 record and sit first in the AL Central.

Correa previously landed on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to May 6) with a right finger contusion suffered after he fouled a ball off his hand during a May 5 at-bat against the Baltimore Orioles. He returned on May 18 against the Oakland Athletics.

The Twins have been snakebit with injuries, as Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Trevor Larnach, Luis Arraez, Kyle Garlick, Correa, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Dylan Bundy have all missed time.

Still, the team holds a comfortable lead over the rest of the AL Central field at the moment, foreshadowing potential hope that the Twins can run away with the division down the stretch provided they get healthier.

Without Correa, the Twins will turn to Royce Lewis or Jorge Polanco at shortstop.

The Minnesota Twins rotation suffered a significant blow on Wednesday as Chris Paddack underwent Tommy John surgery, putting an end to his 2022 season. 

Paddack was moved to the 60-day injured list last week. 

This marks the second Tommy John surgery of Paddack's career. He also had the procedure in July 2016 when he was the San Diego Padres' No. 8 prospect. 

The Padres traded Paddack, who made his MLB debut in 2019, reliever Emilio Pagan and starter Brayan Medina to the Twins in April in exchange for reliever Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker. The right-hander went 1-2 in five starts for Minnesota this season, posting a 4.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 20 strikeouts across 22.1 innings. 

The Twins were hoping Paddack would add some depth to their rotation, but the club has rotated through a number of pitchers due to injuries. In addition to Paddack, Bailey Ober is on the 10-day IL with a groin strain, Kenta Maeda is on the 60-day IL after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and Randy Dobnak is on the 60-day IL with a finger ailment. 

Minnesota's projected rotation entering the 2022 season included Paddack, Ober, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan and Chris Archer. Aside from those five, Dylan Bundy, Josh Winder and Devin Smeltzer have started at least one game for the team this year. 

Before joining the Twins, Paddack had a promising career with the Padres, posting a 4.21 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 310 strikeouts in 308 innings across 61 games. 

Paddack is on a one-year, $2.25 million deal this season and is eligible for two years of arbitration before becoming an unrestricted free agent following the 2024 campaign. Considering he also missed the end of the 2021 season with an elbow ailment, it's hard to imagine he'll receive much of a raise in 2023. 

Despite injuries to members of their rotation, the Twins have gotten out to a solid start this year, going 22-16, which is good for first in the AL Central. 

The Minnesota Twins announced Tuesday that they placed shortstop Carlos Correa on the 10-day injured list with a right middle finger contusion.

The stint on the IL is retroactive to May 6. Correa suffered the injury by fouling a ball off his hand during a May 5 game against the Baltimore Orioles.

Correa, a two-time All-Star and 2015 American League Rookie of the Year, is hitting .255 (.693 OPS) with two home runs and 11 RBI in his first year with Minnesota. The shortstop signed a three-year, $105.3 million contract with the Twins this offseason.

Correa spent the first seven seasons of his career with the Houston Astros. He hit .279 (.850 OPS) with 26 home runs and 92 RBI in 2021. Thanks in part to his efforts, the 95-67 Astros won the AL pennant.

Correa was an instrumental part of the Astros' success since 2017, which has included five playoff appearances, three American League pennants and a World Series title.

Without Correa, the Twins have turned to Royce Lewis at shortstop.