Odds & Betting

If you're looking for the biggest return your investment, you probably shouldn't put money on Tiz the Law for the 2020 Kentucky Derby.

The Belmont Stakes winner is the heavy favorite heading into Saturday despite having drawn the No. 17 post. Honor A.P. and Authentic follow somewhat closely behind before a sizable gap separates the rest of the field.

          

2020 Kentucky Derby Lineup

1. Finnick the Fierce (SCR)

2. Max Player (15-1)

3. Enforceable (22-1)

4. Storm the Court (25-1)

5. Major Fed (26-1)

6. King Guillermo (SCR)

7. Money Moves (15-1)

8. South Bend (36-1)

9. Mr. Big News (45-1)

10. Thousand Words (9-1)

11. Necker Island (42-1)

12. Sole Volante (26-1)

13. Attachment Rate (46-1)

14. Winning Impression (47-1)

15. Ny Traffic (18-1)

16. Honor A.P. (7-1)

17. Tiz the Law (1-1)

18. Authentic (8-1)

Odds via KentuckyDerby.com

           

Based on those odds, a $1 bet on Tiz the Law would net a total payout of $2.00. Throw enough down and you can collect a tidy profit. That's basically the Floyd Mayweather approach.

A winning bet with a marginal return is better than a losing bet. Sure, you could parlay a $100 bet on Winning Impression into lucrative gains. More likely than not, the outcome of that bet is you being out $100, though.

Honor A.P. certainly doesn't qualify as an underdog since he's the second-favorite, but his 7-1 odds represent a safer bet with a slightly higher payout. Plunk down $10 and you'd be adding another $70 to your wallet were he to win.

Honor A.P. was second in the San Felipe and Shared Belief Stakes but prevailed in the Santa Anita Derby in June. He has history on his side, too, since five horses over the last 40 years have gone on to a first-place finish in the Kentucky Derby after starting from the No. 16 post.

Authentic's fortunes aren't quite so rosy. Two horses during the previous four decades have captured a Derby title after drawing the 18th gate. For whatever reason, being the third-favorite on the morning line has been similarly unlucky.

The 3rd choice in the Derby wagering hasn’t won the Derby since Strike the Gold in 1991. Authentic is the 3rd choice on the ML at 8-1.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 1, 2020

Nothing ventured, nothing gained is a time-tested adage, but it generally hasn't applied at Churchill Downs of late.

CBSSports.com noted the betting favorite won the Kentucky Derby for six straight years prior to 2019, and it would've been seven years in a row had Maximum Security not gotten disqualified.

Tiz the Law pulled away down the final stretch at Belmont Park, and he did it again at Saratoga Race Course to take the Travers Stakes last month.

The three-year-old is the strongest horse in the Derby field, and he has won all but one of the six graded stakes races in which he entered.

A wager on Tiz the Law won't exactly let you retire early. He still gives you the best chance of walking away with something.

Improbable received a favourable draw for Saturday's Preakness Stakes, with the colt starting from the No. 4 gate and earning 5-2 odds to lead the field. 

The 13-strong race is missing a number of top names, leaving an even field to battle for supremacy at Pimlico Race Course.

Kentucky Derby winner Country House will miss the meeting due to illness, with Maximum Security also absent due to injury.

                           

Date: Saturday, May 18.

Start: 6:48 p.m. (ET), 11:48 p.m. (BST)

Where: Pimlico Race Course, Baltimore, Maryland.

                        

Post Positions And Latest Odds

Your #Preakness144 odds and post positions. pic.twitter.com/E4uf89wsKg

— Preakness Stakes (@PreaknessStakes) May 15, 2019

                                                                          

Preview

The Preakness represents a huge opportunity for the riders in this year's race, with the top three horses from the Derby missing out from the second leg of the Triple Crown.

However, Improbable will set off from gate No. 4 in his bid for glory, and the Bob Baffert-trained colt was the pre-race favourite at the Run For The Roses after the withdrawal of Omaha Beach.

This year's race is difficult to call. What fans do know is there will be no Triple Crown winner this term after Justify's success last year.

War of Will travelled well at the Derby before being impeded by Maximum Security. The move saw the winner disqualified, with War of Will finishing seventh.

With the raw pace of Maximum Security missing from the Preakness, Saturday's race could develop into a straight shootout between the two most fancied in the field.

War of Will assistant trainer Kim Carroll said the horse is ready for the next challenge and is unaffected by the events in Kentucky, per HorseRacingNation.com.

"He loves what he does," said Carroll during race preparations on Tuesday. "The only thing he didn't like [today] was that I didn't gallop him. But he wasn't [acting up]. He's totally professional, and all class; I never want to get off him. His mind is in the right place. He'll be excited to go out tomorrow again. He's so good at what he does. He's ready and he's going to show us what he's got."

The Preakness' official Twitter account shared an image of War of Will working out on Wednesday as he readies himself to cross swords with Improbable:

#WarofWill putting in work for #Preakness144. pic.twitter.com/QdsdBwux8q

— Preakness Stakes (@PreaknessStakes) May 15, 2019

War Of Will was handed a tricky post at No. 1, but with the two favourites drawn close together, any advantage should be negligible.

Baffert is a master at preparing for this race. He will believe Improbable has the temperament to take the win after his fourth place at the Derby.

Justify ran the perfect race last year, and Baffert will be preparing his horse to repeat the feat on Saturday.

The 2019 Preakness Stakes carries much less intrigue than we thought it would two weeks ago. 

Kentucky Derby winner Country House will not compete at Pimlico Race Course and neither will Maximum Security, who was disqualified after leading wire-to-wire at Churchill Downs. 

In fact, Improbable is likely to be the only top-five finisher from the Kentucky Derby to participate in the Preakness Stakes. 

With few clear-cut favorites expected to be in the field, Saturday's race could be one of the most open competitions we have seen during the second leg of the Triple Crown.  

                   

Entry List and Odds

Improbable (7-4) 

War of Will (3-1) 

Bourbon War (8-1) 

Alwaysmining (8-1) 

Anothertwistoffate (9-1) 

Owendale (10-1) 

Win Win Win (12-1) 

Signalman (14-1) 

Warrior's Change (16-1) 

Bodexpress (16-1) 

Market King (20-1) 

Laughing Fox (20-1) 

Odds via OddsChecker

                      

Dark-Horse Favorites

Win Win Win 

Win Win Win is one of two low Kentucky Derby finishers competing in the Preakness field. 

Win Win Win ended up ninth at Churchill Downs two weeks ago and he is not expected to be one of the betting favorites ahead of Saturday. 

The horse's Kentucky Derby finish will scare away some bettors, but he does have a solid record of results this year. 

Win Win Win took second at the Blue Grass Stakes and third at the Tampa Bay Derby, both of which were won by Kentucky Derby participants. 

The horse trained by Michael Trombetta should not be affected by the quick turnaround, as he has raced in four of the five months in 2019. 

If you want to back Win Win Win, you will point to the impressive finishes from the two pre-Derby races as reasons he can succeed at Pimlico. 

Since there is no dominant horse in the Preakness field, Win Win Win could benefit from an early boost to the front of the pack to pick up a high finish. 

                       

Laughing Fox

Laughing Fox is one of the handful of horses making his Triple Crown debut at the Preakness. 

Even though he has some of the longest odds to reach the winner's circle, Laughing Fox has experience against stiff competition that he could benefit from Saturday. 

At the Arkansas Derby, Laughing Fox finished fourth behind Omaha Beach, Improbable and Country House. 

Omaha Beach was the Kentucky Derby favorite before he scratched, Improbable is likely to be the Preakness favorite and Country House ended up as the Derby champion. 

On the same day as the Kentucky Derby, Laughing Fox won the Oaklawn Invitational, and although it is not as major of a race as the first leg of the Triple Crown, something has to be said about coming into the Preakness off a victory. 

Laughing Fox's trainer Steve Asmussen has won three Triple Crown races, including the 2007 and 2009 Preakness Stakes. 

With a trainer who will get him properly prepared and good form going into Saturday, Laughing Fox could be a surprise top finisher. 

                         

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from HorseRacingNation.com.