Bracketology

At long last, it is Selection Sunday. And after a wild couple of days, at least Sunday played according to form, much to the delight of sleep-deprived bracketologists and sweating bubble teams around the country.

Georgetown and Oregon State stole bids by winning their conference tournaments Saturday night, but Cincinnati couldn't push the number of bid thieves to three. The Bearcats were pummeled by Houston in the AAC championship.

As a result, our final bracket projection is the same as it was this morning.

Thanks to all of you for following along throughout the week. I hope you enjoyed the madness before the Madness.

FINAL PROJECTION: Sunday 5:15 p.m. ET

           

    

Play-In Games:

West No. 16 Seed: Texas Southern vs. Norfolk State
South No. 16 Seed: Appalachian State vs. Hartford
Midwest No. 11 Seed: Syracuse vs. Drake
West No. 11 Seed: Utah State vs. UCLA

              

Sunday Morning Scrub

Among the top three seed lines, the only tough call is the final No. 2 seed.

It appears to be a toss-up between Texas, Oklahoma State and Houston. After the Longhorns won the Big 12 championship, they look like the best candidate for it. Oklahoma State has more Quadrant 1 wins, and Houston has the best metrics by far, but that Big 12 conference title is quite the bonus. It took a lot of thought, but Texas moves up to a No. 2, regardless of whether Houston wins the AAC title today.

The final No. 5 seed is even harder than the final No. 2 seed.

If Creighton had won last night, the Bluejays would feel like a lock for no worse than a No. 5. Not only did they lose to Georgetown, but they got pummeled. Colorado also would have had a great case if it had won the Pac-12 title, but it also fell short to a bid thief. Both of those teams have great metrics but now four rather questionable losses each.

Out of seemingly nowhere, LSU has emerged as the best candidate for that spot. After yesterday's win over Arkansas, the Tigers are 5-7 vs. Quadrant 1 with nothing worse than a road loss to NET No. 98 Georgia on their list of mistakes. They're also top-30 in both NET and KenPom. I like their chances of landing on the No. 5 line, regardless of what happens in today's game against Alabama.

LSU's vault from our top No. 7 to our bottom No. 5 bumps Oklahoma from a No. 6 to a No. 7.

The Sooners have been a tough nut to crack. They were No. 12 overall in the top-16 reveal, and they won at West Virginia later that day. Since then, though, they're 2-5 overall with a bad loss to Kansas State and merely two wins over Iowa State. They're also barely top-40 in NET or KenPom. The only real argument for them to be higher than a No. 7 is the committee was enamored with them a month ago. But loves fades, and so did Oklahoma.

Among the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, we have a swap in the ACC with Clemson sliding down as Georgia Tech moves up after its ACC championship win over Florida State. I try not to drastically move teams during conference championship week, but those were two exceptions to the rule.

Georgia Tech was on the bubble to enter the week, but beating Florida State to claim a major-conference title is huge. The Yellow Jackets should at least get the better seed in the 50/50 game to face a No. 1 seed.

And Clemson entered the week as my bottom No. 5 seed before losing to sub-.500 Miami. The problem for Clemson is the metrics were already bad because of its four blowout losses in January, but the lack of any losses outside of Quadrant 1 kept the Tigers looking good anyway. But that loss to Miami is like a moldy apple that hit their resume four days ago and now has gotten extra stinky.

The St. Bonaventure vs. VCU winner will be a No. 9 seed. The loser will be a No. 10 seed. Almost feels like the winner is getting penalized by needing to beat a No. 1 seed to reach the Sweet 16, but such is life.

I'm still constantly grappling with the Big Ten "bubble" teams, Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State. They're each safely in the field, but if they aren't all on the same seed line, it's tough to argue who should be in front or behind. They all have double-digit losses and a nice supply of quality wins. With the fewest losses and the most Quadrant 1 and 2 victories, Rutgers will likely be the highest seeded of the trio. And with a NET ranking all the way down at 70, Michigan State still looks to be the odd man out, landing on the No. 11 seed line.

Of course, No. 11 doesn't feel as safe as it did 24 hours ago, now that Georgetown and Oregon State have jumped into the field as No. 12 seeds, bumping both of the play-in games up to a No. 11. But I'm still confident the Spartans are in with a bit of room to spare.

And that brings us to the heart of the scrub: 10 teams for the final five spots. (Or four spots, if Cincinnati beats Houston.) In alphabetical order, those teams are Boise State, Colorado State, Drake, Louisville, Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Syracuse, UCLA, Utah State and Wichita State.

Of the 10, Louisville appears to be the safest. Duke isn't going to get in, but the Blue Devils were certainly a tournament-caliber team late in the year. Thus, Louisville's two wins over the Blue Devils and home wins over Virginia Tech and now ACC champion Georgia Tech should offset the lone bad loss to Miami.

The rest of the nine can be seen below, but the big overnight change was Syracuse replacing Colorado State as the last team in.

Believe me, I would much rather see a three-bid Mountain West than another blew-a-ton-of-chances major-conference team sneak in, but the more I compare Syracuse and Colorado State head-to-head, the less I like the Rams. The Orange have four wins over definite tournament teams, while CSU only has one. The Rams also have that unsightly 20-point loss to Saint Mary's.

We'll be taking a closer look at the Nos. 13-16 seeds shortly and will make sure there aren't any "illegal" first-round pairings or placements.

     

The Bubble

Fourth-to-Last In: UCLA Bruins (17-9, NET: 47, KenPom: 44)

The big question for UCLA is: Who did it actually beat? The best win of the season was a home game against a Colorado team that was without its starting center. The Bruins did sweep Arizona, but how much does beating ineligible-for-the-postseason teams actually matter? Outside of that, their best win was at Utah.

When they lost their Pac-12 tournament opener to Oregon State, it looked like an awful Quadrant 3 loss. But the Beavers proceeded to knock off Oregon and Colorado and turned that into not such a bad result for UCLA. However, it's kind of a backhanded compliment to UCLA's resume, because by winning the Pac-12 tournament, Oregon State may have forced the Bruins into a play-in game.

       

Third-to-Last In: Utah State Aggies (20-8, NET: 41, KenPom: 39)

Utah State was somewhat up a creek without a paddle two weeks ago after getting swept by Boise State. But while others on the bubble (and in the MWC) have been dropping games left and right, the Aggies swept Nevada and won one game each against Wyoming and Fresno State. Nothing fantastic in that bunch, but not losing is always a good thing.

They continued that not-losing trend by making quick work of UNLV in the MWC quarterfinals. That 74-53 victory over the Rebels looks good on its own, but it really looks good when compared to Boise State's loss earlier in the day.

The subsequent 12-point win over Colorado State was simply massive. There had been a lot of complaints brewing about Utah State's inability to win quality games away from home, but this should put an end to that narrative. If Neemias Queta and the Aggies don't get in now, the selection committee will be robbing us all of a good time.

        

Second-to-Last Team In: Drake Bulldogs (25-4, NET: 44, KenPom: 53)

Without fail, there's always a bubble team that loses in its conference tournament a week before Selection Sunday, left to sweat buckets day after day. As things currently stand, Drake would probably get in. The Bulldogs had two iffy losses at Bradley and Valparaiso, but they went 5-0 vs. Quadrant 2, won one game against Loyola-Chicago and battled well in the MVC championship loss to the Ramblers. But we'll have to wait and see what the bubble teams in the ACC, Big East, Mountain West, AAC and SEC tournaments can do later this week.

(Bonus note: If Drake slips onto the wrong side of the bubble, it would almost certainly have the option of becoming one of the four "at-large replacement teams" placed on standby in the event that an at-large team is unable to play its first tournament game. Not only will Drake be sweating until Selection Sunday, but it might be waiting until the following Saturday to find out if it gets to play in the tournament.)

         

Last Team In: Syracuse Orange (16-9, NET: 39, KenPom: 41)

It wouldn't be March without Syracuse smack dab on the bubble. The Orange have home wins over Clemson, North Carolina and Virginia Tech, as well as a now three-game season sweep of NC State after that 21-point win in the second round of the ACC tournament. But a lack of statement wins and a season sweep at the hands of Pittsburgh has left them in a perilous spot.

The three-point, buzzer-beating loss to Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals was a heartbreaker for the Orange, but it wasn't a bubble popper. Stomping NC State and giving Virginia a run for its money was a nice showing.

Saturday was brutal for the Orange, though. Bid thieves Georgetown and Oregon State knocked Syracuse right to the cut line.

        

First Team Out: Colorado State Rams (18-6, NET: 48, KenPom: 59)

The season-ending loss at Nevada brought the Rams back to the pack a bit, but it wasn't a terrible misstep. Three-point Quadrant 2 losses aren't great, of course, but it only cost them a couple spots on the overall seed list. That said, there's not a whole lot of meat on this resume. CSU split each of its season series with Boise State, San Diego State and Utah State; it lost at Saint Mary's and Nevada; and those were the only eight games played against the top two quadrants prior to the MWC tournament.

At least the Rams beat Fresno State in the MWC quarters, but another loss to Colorado State may have been the final straw. Well, Oregon State beating Colorado was Colorado State's final straw. The Rams likely would be in were it not for bid thieves.

       

Second Team Out: Wichita State Shockers (16-5, NET: 64, KenPom: 69)

Just a brutal loss to Cincinnati for Wichita State in the AAC semifinals.

Up until that point, the Shockers' worst loss was either the home game against Missouri or the road game against Memphis. Either way, not an egregious misstep. But in spite of that lack of bad losses, Wichita State has been on the bubble all week because they have a great home win over Houston, a solid road win over Ole Miss and no other victories against the NET Top 100. Just not a whole lot on the resume.

That Quadrant 3 loss bumped Wichita State down to our Last Team In. Georgetown's subsequent bubble-shrinking Big East championship then knocked the Shockers out of the field. We'll take a much closer look at Wichita State's resume in the morning, though.

       

Third Team Out: Ole Miss Rebels (16-11, NET: 52, KenPom: 47)

Ole Miss has perhaps the most "normal year" bubble resume of the bunch, boasting a healthy dose of both nice wins and questionable losses. The Rebels swept Missouri and won a home game against Tennessee. They were also swept by Georgia, lost at Vanderbilt, lost a home game to Mississippi State and went 0-2 in nonconference games against teams outside of Quadrant 4 (Dayton and Wichita State).

Ole Miss cruised to a second-round victory over South Carolina to set up a big opportunity against LSU on Friday, but the Rebels fell three points shy of knocking off the Tigers.

They still have a shot, though. Five losses to non-tournament teams isn't great, but they didn't suffer any egregious defeats. And it's not like anyone else on the bubble did much to help its case this week. If Georgetown and Oregon State both lose in their conference championships and Ole Miss shows up in a play-in game, I can't say I would be stunned.

         

Fourth Team Out: Saint Louis Billikens (14-6, NET: 45, KenPom: 48)

The Billikens have a respectable resume with home wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure and just the one awful loss (at La Salle). But if the selection committee is going to cut anyone some slack for poor play after a COVID-19 pause, Saint Louis should be near the top of that list. The Billikens went more than a month between games (Dec. 23 to Jan. 26) before suffering back-to-back losses, one of which was that La Salle game.

        

Fifth Team Out: Boise State Broncos (18-8, NET: 51, KenPom: 61)

Nothing like ending the regular season on a three-game losing streak, punctuated by a Quadrant 4 loss, am I right? Boise State looked like a near-lock to make the tournament after finishing off its mid-February sweep of Utah State, but back-to-back close losses to San Diego State followed by a terrible home loss to Fresno State leaves the Broncos with work to do.

Boise State probably would've gotten in with a win over Nevada in the MWC's No. 4 vs. No. 5 game. Instead, they lost to the Wolf Pack for the third time this season. Now, they sweat, hoping that the win at BYU from more than three months ago will be enough.

       

Others Still Under Some Consideration (in no particular order): Memphis, Richmond, Belmont, Seton Hall, Xavier

                 

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.

With just a little more than a week remaining until the selection show for the 2021 NCAA men's college basketball tournament, the No. 1 seeds picture is coming more into focus by the hour.

It might not seem like much, but the difference between a No. 1 and a No. 2 seed is massive.

For starters, there have been eight No. 15-over-No. 2 first-round upsets compared to just the one No. 16 UMBC over No. 1 Virginia shocker. Dating back to 1999, more than twice as many No. 1 seeds have reached the Final Four (33) than No. 2 seeds (16). And when it comes to winning the whole shebang, 14 No. 1 seeds have cut down the nets compared to only two No. 2 seeds in the past 21 years.

There are still quite a few variables between now and next Sunday, though, so which projected No. 1 seeds are safest? And which teams not currently on the No. 1 line have a reasonable path to get there?

For every team with any realistic hope, we've set their chances of securing a No. 1 seed.

Teams are presented in decreasing order of certainty to land a spot on the top line.

                  

Gonzaga Bulldogs (99.8 percent)

Gonzaga is the only remaining undefeated team (24-0) in men's college basketball. And while the West Coast Conference isn't anything special, Gonzaga also scored neutral-site victories over West Virginia, Iowa, Kansas and Virginia within its first seven games of the season. As far as the Bracket Matrix is concerned, that's two No. 2 seeds, a No. 3 seed and a No. 5 seed.

If the Zags are able to win the WCC tournament—which only requires two wins, as they have a bye into the semifinals—not only are they a lock for a No. 1 seed, but they would be a lock for the No. 1 overall seed. Even if they were to lose to Saint Mary's or Loyola Marymount in the WCC semifinals, it's hard to imagine they'll drop all the way to No. 5 on the overall seed list.

The only feasible "nightmare" scenario would be an immediate Gonzaga loss, followed by West Virginia beating Baylor in the Big 12 championship and Michigan losing to one of Ohio State, Illinois or Iowa in the Big Ten championship. In that situation, maybe the four teams playing in the Big 12 and Big Ten title games could bypass Gonzaga. However, I don't even think that would be enough do it.

        

Baylor Bears (98.0 percent)

Tuesday's road win over West Virginia probably cemented Baylor's spot as a No. 1 seed. There were some brief concerns raised during the close call against Iowa State and the subsequent loss to Kansas, but the Bears are now at least close to looking like the runaway freight train that they were prior to that lengthy COVID-19 pause.

Because of that most-of-the-season dominance, Baylor has seven Quadrant 1 wins and only the one loss at Kansas. Even if the Bears were to lose to Texas Tech on Saturday, they are so far ahead of the six- and seven-loss teams (Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State and Alabama) that it's hard to see anyone other than Michigan catching them from behind, regardless of what happens in the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC conference tournaments.

The one exception would be if Baylor loses to Texas Tech this weekend and loses its Big 12 tournament opener against either TCU or Kansas State. The Horned Frogs are No. 121 in the NET, so that would be a Quadrant 3 loss. The Wildcats are No. 204 in the NET, so that would at least temporarily appear as a Quadrant 4 loss, although Kansas State would almost certainly move into the top 200 if it beats Baylor. Either way, that type of bad loss could knock Baylor down to a No. 2 seed, provided enough of the other candidates for the top line take care of their own business next week.

However, Baylor's average margin of victory in three games against TCU and Kansas State this season was 32.3 points. Winning that quarterfinal shouldn't be a problem.

       

Michigan Wolverines (92.0 percent)

Between Baylor's road win over West Virginia and Michigan's 23-point home loss to Illinois, Tuesday night brought the national hierarchy back to: Gonzaga and Baylor on the top tier, Michigan alone on the second tier, and everyone else is fighting for fourth place.

While it feels like the Wolverines are securely on the top line, they aren't quite the lock that Gonzaga and Baylor are. That blowout loss to Illinois, taken in conjunction with the previous 18-point loss at Minnesota, leaves the Wolverines at least a little vulnerable to a leapfrog situation.

If they lose at Michigan State on Sunday and if they lose their first Big Ten tournament game (seeding isn't set, but it's looking like that could be a third consecutive game against Michigan State), that would be trouble.

It might not immediately knock the Wolverines off the top line, but it should eventually bump them behind the Big Ten tournament champion (assuming it's Illinois, Ohio State or Iowa). If an Alabama or West Virginia also wins out, it could bump Michigan down a peg.

          

Winner of Saturday's Illinois at Ohio State Game (70.0 percent)

Loser of Saturday's Illinois at Ohio State Game (15.0 percent)

Right now, there is minimal separation between the Illini and the Buckeyes. Illinois is 8-5 vs. Quadrant 1 and 13-6 against the top two Quadrants. Ohio State is 7-5 and 12-7, respectively. The Illini surged ahead a bit with that statement win over Michigan on Tuesday, but Ohio State previously won at Illinois and could get a significant leg up on Illinois by completing the sweep.

Put it this way: The winner of this game is definitely going to enter the Big Ten tournament as a projected No. 1 seed for the NCAA tournament, while the loser almost certainly will not.

That doesn't mean either side is guaranteed to remain in that position, though, as either one could lose in the Big Ten quarterfinals or win that tournament to acquire three more quality wins. But "second-best resume in the Big Ten" in the final few days before Selection Sunday is a good place to be.

If either Illinois or Ohio State wins the Big Ten tournament, lock it in as a No. 1 seed. If neither one wins it and either Alabama wins the SEC tournament or West Virginia, Kansas or Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 tournament, it's likely that both Illinois and Ohio State would be No. 2 seeds.

But here's why Saturday's game is huge: If Michigan wins the Big Ten, Baylor wins the Big 12 and someone other than Alabama wins the SEC, it's the Illinois at Ohio State winner would likely get that fourth No. 1 seed.

           

Alabama Crimson Tide (10.0 percent)

We've mentioned Alabama several times already, but the Crimson Tide are more of a potential party crasher than a major threat to secure a No. 1 seed.

That isn't because Alabama would be undeserving of a spot on the top line if it wins the SEC tournament. This team already has seven Quadrant 1 wins and seven Quadrant 2 wins. As of Thursday morning, those 14 victories against the top two quadrants are the most in the country. (Granted, Alabama has played 26 games, which is also the most among teams in the NET Top 15.)

It's more a problem of limited opportunity for the Crimson Tide.

Winning the SEC tournament would be an impressive achievement. As things stand, their path to a title might run through Kentucky, Tennessee and Arkansas. But based on the latest Bracket Matrix update, that's a non-tournament team, a No. 6 seed and a No. 4 seed. Meanwhile, Illinois, Ohio State, Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma State and West Virginia will likely need to go through at least two if not three legitimate Final Four candidates to win its conference tournament. That would push/keep that team ahead of Alabama on the overall seed list.

Alabama's best chance is to win the SEC tournament while Baylor and Michigan win the Big 12 and Big Ten tournaments. That would probably do the trick. But only twice in the past two decades (2007 and 2010) did the No. 1 seed win each of the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC tournaments, hence the 10 percent odds. 

        

West Virginia Mountaineers OR Kansas Jayhawks OR Oklahoma State Cowboys (9.0 percent)

Individually, it's probably more like 6.5 percent for West Virginia, 2.0 percent for Kansas and 0.5 percent for Oklahoma State. But if any of these three teams wins the Big 12 tournament, it will have a compelling case for a No. 1 seed.

Neither Kansas nor West Virginia has suffered a loss outside of Quadrant 1. They split the season series with each other, and they both swept Texas Tech. For each team, some of those near-the-bottom-of-Quadrant-1 results could slide down into Quadrant 2 within the next nine days. If either one wins the Big 12 tournament, though, it's going to be something like 9-7 vs. Quadrant 1 with no bad losses. That's pretty solid.

Oklahoma State does have a pair of questionable losses on its docket, as the Cowboys were inexplicably swept by TCU. However, they have eight Quadrant 1 wins and could add a ninth Saturday when they close out the regular season at West Virginia. Win that one and the Big 12 tournament, and you're talking about 12 Quadrant 1 wins in a year where no one else currently has more than eight.

Any of the three would be outstanding resumes.

However, in addition to the not-great odds of winning the Big 12 tournament, it's pretty unlikely that they would leapfrog Gonzaga, Baylor or Michigan even with that title. And while the fourth No. 1 seed is definitely in play, Illinois, Ohio State or Iowa would have the best case for it if any member of that trio wins the Big Ten tournament. There's also a chance the selection committee would prefer SEC champion Alabama over one of these potential Big 12 champions. 

          

Iowa Hawkeyes (4.0 percent)

The metrics have loved Iowa all season long, but it wasn't until the 15-point win at Wisconsin on Feb. 18 and the 16-point win at Ohio State on Feb. 28 that the Hawkeyes started to feel like a legitimate threat to claim a No. 1 seed. They now have a 6-5 record in Quadrant 1 games, plus noteworthy home wins over Rutgers, North Carolina and Michigan State.

The problem is that Iowa was swept by Indiana and lost at Minnesota. Neither of those teams is likely to make the NCAA tournament at this point, and three losses to non-tournament teams is a major red flag in this year's loaded race for the No. 1 seeds.

The Hawkeyes do still have a home game against Wisconsin on Saturday, in which they could pick up a seventh Quadrant 1 win and likely lock up the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten tournament. From there, their likeliest path to a title appears to be Wisconsin-Illinois-Michigan. Winning those three games on a neutral court would be huge for a team that's already ranked No. 6 in both NET and KenPom.

         

Florida State Seminoles OR Villanova Wildcats (2.0 percent)

As far as our crystal ball is concerned, the odds of Florida State or Villanova getting a No. 1 seed are the same as Baylor's odds of not getting a No. 1 seed.

Between the two teams, the best win of the season was Villanova's road win over Texas back in early December. Florida State has a few nice blowout wins on its resume, but that's the only victory either team has in the top half of Quadrant 1. They also each suffered a bad loss (Florida State vs. UCF; Villanova at Butler).

The two main things working in their favor are a limited supply of losses (four each) and the fact that—even in what is undeniably a down year for the ACC—sweeping both the regular-season and league-tournament titles in a major conference will always look good on the resume. Still, Florida State and Villanova need to win out and get a healthy amount of chaos in the other tournaments to have a shot at the top line.

         

The Field (0.2 percent)

This is a catch-all for Houston, Arkansas, Virginia, the Pac-12 champion and the third-tier teams from the Big Ten and Big 12. Maybe there's a mathematical chance for some member of that group to sneak up and grab the fourth No. 1 seed. But a whole lot of things would need to go haywire for that to happen.

               

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.

Without fail, fans of men's college basketball make some sort of "This is the weakest bubble ever!" complaint in late February or early March of every year.

In most seasons, it's just recency bias; we forget how nauseating it was to wade through the previous year's resumes in search of teams worthy of the final few spots in the field.

However, this year's bubble is openly inviting such proclamations by losing critical games over and over again.

Let's be sure to note off the bat that this was already destined to be the weakest bubble on record.

With the Ivy League opting out of the 2020-21 season, there's one more at-large spot available (37) than usual. Not only do more at-large spots need to be awarded, but there are also fewer major-conference candidates than usual with both Arizona and Auburn ineligible for the postseason. On top of that, the combination of the late start to the regular season and teams losing games to COVID-19 pauses means there are going to be teams who enter Selection Sunday with 20 or fewer games played, compared to 31 to 34 in a normal year.

Fewer games means fewer quality wins. Two years ago, several teams racked up at least a dozen Quadrant 1 wins. Texas and Indiana were both left out of the 2019 field in spite of a combined 11 Quadrant 1 victories. But as of Tuesday morning, no one in the country has more than eight Quadrant 1 wins this year, and there are several teams either in the projected field or darn close to it who have either zero or one top-tier victories all season.

Even with those caveats established, the past week of bubble flops has left us to wonder if some of these teams even want to play in the NCAA tournament.

In my bracket projection on the morning of February 23, the last seven teams in the field (in order from safest to least safe) were Drake, Minnesota, Colorado State, VCU, Indiana, St. Bonaventure and Seton Hall.

In the subsequent seven days, those teams went a combined 6-8 with three Quadrant 3 losses. The only one to pick up a Quadrant 1 win was St. Bonaventure, but in addition to it barely counting as Q1 (at NET No. 71 Davidson), the Bonnies also suffered one of the three bad losses.

Of the seven teams, the only one that didn't suffer at least one loss was Colorado State, which played a pair of Quadrant 4 home games against 5-19 Air Force.

Normally, a week that terrible from the teams on the good side of the projected cut line would be great news for the teams on the bad side of the projected cut line.

Except those teams didn't do much to help their case, either.

My first five out last Tuesday were Duke, Saint Louis, Wichita State, Michigan State and Syracuse. Four of those five suffered a loss, and the lone exception was Wichita State, which hasn't played since Feb. 18. (Michigan State actually did a lot to help its case with home wins over Illinois and Ohio State, but the Spartans also left a sour taste in our mouths with that 18-point loss to Maryland on Sunday.)

Even most of the "still under consideration" teams shot themselves in the foot. We had 12 teams in that group last week, and seven of them suffered a loss (or losses, in several cases) bad enough to effectively extinguish what little hope they had of making the tournament.

As a result of all that carnage, the limited few who didn't take a bad L benefited in a big way.

By simply not losing to Air Force—which is now 0-8 against the Mountain West Conference's top four teams with each loss by at least 11 points—the Colorado State Rams climbed up from a "play-in game" to a solid No. 11 seed. And Georgia Tech vaulted from somewhere around "10th Team Out" all the way up to "Fifth-to-Last Team In" with its wins over Virginia Tech (road) and Syracuse (home).

The Yellow Jackets are also now the third-highest rated ACC team on KenPom.com, which is rather remarkable when you consider the usual strength of that league and the fact that Georgia Tech opened the season with consecutive home losses to Georgia State and Mercer.

But Georgia Tech's rapid ascension from its woeful beginning speaks volumes to how the blue-blood programs keep hanging around the bubble in spite of their atypically bad seasons.

The conspiracy theorists in the crowd love to spew nonsense about the NCAA and/or selection committee wanting teams like Duke, North Carolina and Michigan State to get in for ratings and dollars, but that isn't what's happening. The bar for inclusion is just so low this year that—while some other team on the bubble is suffering a Quadrant 3 loss seemingly every night—all it takes is one home win over Virginia, Florida State or Illinois to drastically improve a team's resume.

Where this is ultimately headed is perhaps the most important conference tournament season ever.

In most years, if you put together a competent bracket projection five days before Selection Sunday and don't change anything within the major conferences throughout the week, it would still look fine. You should probably at least account for the couple of teams who surprisingly win several games to reach their conference championships, as well as the ones who immediately suffer a bad loss. However, there usually aren't drastic swings in projected seeding this late in the season.

This year, though, so much is still up in the air, as these final data points are going to carry more weight on the slimmed-down resumes.

That's most pertinent in the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West, otherwise known as the epicenter of the 2021 NCAA tournament bubble.

Each of those mid-major leagues has had four teams in the at-large conversation throughout the season—VCU, St. Bonaventure, Richmond and Saint Louis in the A-10; San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State in the MWC. Of the bunch, though, the only one safely in the field is San Diego State.

Richmond is the No. 8 seed in the A-10 tournament, meaning it will face No. 9 seed Duquesne first. If the Dukes happen to catch fire and knock off both Richmond and No. 1 seed St. Bonaventure while Saint Louis fails to even reach a conference championship game that VCU wins, hello one-bid A-10.

(Before you say there's no way Duquesne could pull that off, be sure to note that the No. 1 seed was eliminated by either the No. 8 or No. 9 seed in five of the last nine A-10 tournaments. That tournament almost always goes off the rails.)

And while the most likely scenario in the MWC is those four teams squaring off in the semifinals, it isn't exactly beyond the realm of possibility for Nevada, UNLV and Fresno State to knock off Boise State, Colorado State and Utah State in the quarterfinals of a tournament that San Diego State wins, possibly making that a one-bid league, too.

Throw in the ACC and Big Ten tournaments featuring a combined nine or 10 bubble teams, and things could get wild.

Just get ready to hear this refrain on repeat for what little time remains before the final bracket is revealed: We have to get to 68 teams somehow. And don't be surprised if and when the blue-blood programs benefit from that dilemma.

Well, most of the blue bloods. Barring a miraculous run to an SEC tournament title, even this year's bubble doesn't have enough room for 8-14 Kentucky.

               

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.