Fast-Paced Buffalo in Perfect Position to Play Spoiler in 2019 NCAA Tournament
Mar 22, 2019
TULSA, OKLAHOMA - MARCH 22: The Buffalo Bulls huddle up before the start of their first round game of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament against the Arizona State Sun Devils at BOK Center on March 22, 2019 in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
TULSA, Okla. ― If you're looking for a Cinderella story, Buffalo isn't it.
Although the program is a mid-major conference champion on the sport's biggest stage―the 2019 men's NCAA basketball tournament―there wasn't any doubt it would be here. The Bulls received a "save the date" card for the Big Dance months ago.
When the official invitation arrived, it featured Buffalo as a No. 6 seed. Nate Oats' team backed up the billing in its 2019 tourney debut with a 91-74 triumph over 11th-seeded Arizona State.
That, however, doesn't mean the Bulls are about to be considered a favorite. According to B/R Betting, the only top-six seed with lower odds to win the national championship before the tournament started was Mississippi State. And since March Madness has been relatively thin on upsets so far, Buffalo isn't moving from its place as an underdog.
Last year, the Bulls reveled in ruining Barack Obama's bracket. This March, they're built to wreck even more―and are doing it without a bunch of highly recruited talent.
Of their seven players with at least 500 minutes played this season, none was a 4-star recruit out of high school in the 247Sports composite rankings. The core of this Buffalo team is comprised of overlooked recruits.
CJ Massinburg, the MAC Player of the Year, netted 18 points in Friday's win. Nick Perkins and Jeremy Harris both scored 21, while Jayvon Graves added 13 points and Davonta Jordan had seven assists.
The Bulls are especially difficult to contain because of their superb efficiency at a blistering pace.
According to KenPom.com, they own the nation's 10th-fastest tempo. Buffalo takes 36.4 percent of its initial shots in transition―the fourth-highest rate, per Hoop-Math.com―and boasts a 61.0 effective field-goal percentage, which ranks 31st.
If the Bulls can run, they're dangerous. The rapid pace―which conflicts with third-seeded Texas Tech's methodical tempo and is the polar opposite of No. 2 Michigan's slow style―stresses defenses and creates open shots thanks to terrific ball movement.
And that is what's most important: Buffalo sees.
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Led by Jordan at 3.6 per game, five players average at least 1.9 assists. Friday, their ball movement was clinical. Buffalo regularly passed up contested drives for wide-open looks.
Showcasing that collective vision will be pivotal in Buffalo's hopes of spoiling March for Texas Tech in the second round and potentially Michigan in the Sweet 16. Those programs are first and second nationally in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
But as TNT broadcaster Steve Lavin noted, the Bulls' cooperative approach translates to the other end of the court.
Steve Lavin on Buffalo: “They seem to enjoy the thrill of a pass, they take pride in their passing. They look for one another. It’s a well-knit, cohesive approach. Really that carries over to the defensive side as well. They look to help one another.”
They entered Friday with the nation's 21st-ranked three-point defense and held Arizona State to a 3-of-22 clip from the perimeter. Only nine Division I teams have surrendered a three-point clip of 40 percent in a game fewer times than Buffalo's five, per Sports Reference.
And even if Texas Tech and/or Michigan play slow and don't shoot threes, the Bulls can succeed in a defensive battle.
In non-transition possessions, per Hoop-Math, Buffalo has ceded an effective field-goal percentage of just 47.2. Plus, the Bulls are 21st in transition defense and 64th in opponent turnover rate.
Buffalo is built to contend with the nation's best teams.
The clock has struck midnight on many of 2019's potential Cinderella stories, but that's of no concern to the Bulls. This spoiler is ready to take its rightful place in the spotlight.
The Buffalo Bulls Are Looking to Put Some Respect on Their Name
Mar 15, 2019
BR Video
The Buffalo Bulls basketball team is coming in hot after their shocking upset of Arizona in last year's NCAA tournament. They have spent most of this season as a top 25 team. Watch the video above for more about the Bulls' mission to earn more respect.
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Could Buffalo Become the Next Gonzaga of Men's College Basketball?
Jan 18, 2019
Buffalo guard CJ Massinburg (5) and head coach Nate Oats talk during the second half of an NCAA college Basketball game against Le Moyne, Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2018, in Buffalo N.Y. (AP Photo/Jeffrey T. Barnes)
Six years ago, Buffalo men's basketball wasn't even an afterthought at a national level.
The Bulls had never been to the NCAA tournament and had only once earned a share of a regular-season conference title (2009). They finished a couple of seasons in the KenPom top 100 but never sniffed the AP Top 25 or an at-large bid.
Sam Pellom is still the only player from the program to ever play in the NBA, and he went undrafted prior to brief stints with the Atlanta Hawks and Milwaukee Bucks almost 40 years ago.
In a sport with more than 300 teams, Buffalo was just a nameless face in the crowd.
But the Bulls are no longer anonymous.
Far from it, actually.
Since hiring Bobby Hurley as the head coach before the 2013-14 season—the team transitioned to Nate Oats two years later without missing a beat—Buffalo has won three MAC regular-season titles and three conference tournaments. After close calls against No. 5 seed West Virginia in the 2015 NCAA tournament and No. 3 seed Miami the following year, the Bulls finally broke through and destroyed No. 4 seed Arizona 89-68 in the first round this past March, securing the first tournament win in school history.
For most mid-major programs, that kind of five-year run would be the end of the story—a once-in-a-lifetime stretch of success fueled by a kid the recruiting services whiffed on and a head coach bound for greatness elsewhere.
For Buffalo, it was only the beginning, as this year's Bulls are arguably the best mid-major team not named Gonzaga.
And, no, we're not forgetting about Nevada. That's just how good Buffalo is.
Davonta Jordan
Forget about anonymous, Buffalo is a unanimous top-25 team in the latest AP poll, appearing on all 64 voters' ballots for the first time this season. The 16th-ranked Bulls are 16-1 overall with road wins over Syracuse and West Virginia. They are breezing through league play with a 4-0 record and an average margin of victory of 19.8 points.
Both on KenPom and in the NET rankings, this is a top-20 team. If they can keep that status for another two months, they won't be a plucky No. 12 or No. 13 seed but instead the fringe title contender that a No. 12 or No. 13 seed is hoping to upset in the first round.
So what has been the secret to their emergence?
Turnovers.
Or, rather, a lack of turnovers.
From 2002-13, Buffalo turned the ball over on at least 20 percent of its offensive possessions in each season, according to KenPom. And unless you're incredible at something else, it's hard to win with any sort of regularity when you're giving the ball away that often.
In each of the past six seasons, however, the Bulls' turnover rate has been below 20 percent, including a mark of 14.7 this year that ranks in the top 10 nationally. At Buffalo's pace of roughly 74 possessions per game, that's an improvement of four turnovers per game.
And when the Bulls do cough it up, at least they aren't setting up their opponents with fast-break opportunities. According to KenPom, Buffalo's steal rate on offense is 5.8 percent, trailing only Michigan for the best rate in the nation. From 2002-14, Buffalo's best steal rate was 9.5 percent, and it was typically hovering closer to 11.0. Cutting live-ball turnovers in half is a phenomenal first step to getting better.
Nick Perkins
It's more than just that, of course. This is Georgia Southern's sixth consecutive season ranking in the top 50 in offensive steal rate, but you don't see the Eagles in the AP Top 25—or even in the KenPom top 100. In addition to limiting careless mistakes, Buffalo has also made strides on defense, has always done a good job of crashing the offensive glass and has mastered the art of getting old and staying old, consistently having a bunch of key upperclassmen in the fold.
This year, that last bit is more pertinent than ever, as five of the Bulls' seven leading scorers are seniors.
CJ Massinburg is the top scorer and the name most college basketball fans probably know—he put up 43 points in the early win over West Virginia. But he, Jeremy Harris and Nick Perkins are each averaging better than 13 points and six rebounds per game for a team loaded with experience and ways to beat you.
No need to worry that the mid-major dynasty is going to disappear this offseason along with that quintet, though. There are several transfers sitting on the bench ready to make an impact next season, most notably among them Antwain Johnson from Middle Tennessee. And Oats and his staff are no strangers to building rosters from the transfer market. Three of this year's five top seniors began their careers at JUCO schools.
That's why it feels like we're looking at more than just a flash in the pan.
Buffalo will need to maintain this level of dominance for several more years—and reach a Sweet 16 or two—before people begin to seriously entertain the notion this could be an East Coast Gonzaga.
However, the bones are there for the Bulls to become an annual staple atop the MAC, given their proven ability to find players with some college experience who fit their system like a glove.
