MLB

Free-agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts is being pursued by multiple teams hoping to pry him away from the Boston Red Sox, and a National League franchise is reportedly pulling ahead of the other suitors.

According to Jon Morosi of MLB Network, the Arizona Diamondbacks are considered to be "among the most serious" potential landing spots for the four-time All-Star. Morosi noted that Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen was a top executive with the Red Sox when Bogaerts made his MLB debut in 2013.

On Sunday, Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reported that there are "eight to 11 teams with interest" in the 30-year-old shortstop, naming the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. Abraham also stated that the Red Sox have not made a competitive offer to retain Bogaerts.

The Diamondbacks are looking for an upgrade after relying on Geraldo Perdomo, who did not make an offensive impact last season. Nick Ahmed played only 17 games because of a shoulder injury that required surgery. Arizona finished 74-88 and missed the playoffs for the fifth straight year.

The Phillies on Monday reportedly reached an agreement with Dodgers free-agent shortstop Trea Turner on an 11-year, $300 million deal, which all but rules them out on Bogaerts. The shortstop market has boomed recently, as Corey Seager's 10-year, $325 million deal with the Texas Rangers set the benchmark last offseason.

In addition to Bogaerts, there are multiple top-notch shortstops remaining on the open market, including Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Jose Iglesias.

A two-time World Series champion, Bogaerts has been one of the faces of the Red Sox franchise for the last 10 years. He earned his fifth Silver Slugger Award last season after hitting .307/.377/.456 with 15 home runs and 73 RBI. He was also a finalist for a Gold Glove Award for the second time in his career.

Wherever Bogaerts lands, he will undoubtedly be a difference-maker.

The Philadelphia Phillies may not be the only National League team who signs an impact shortstop this offseason.

After Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Phillies agreed to an 11-year, $300 million deal with a no-trade clause with Trea Turner, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported the Cardinals are also involved in the shortstop market and are interested in Dansby Swanson.

Signing Swanson could help St. Louis in multiple ways, as Morosi suggested such a move could also help the front office use another position player to land a catcher in a trade. He mentioned Sean Murphy of the Oakland Athletics or Danny Jansen of the Toronto Blue Jays as possible targets.

With Yadier Molina retiring after the 2022 campaign, the National League Central team could use a backstop.

As for Swanson, he would bolster an already formidable infield that includes Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado.

The free-agent shortstop is in the middle of his prime at 28 years old and coming off a season that saw him earn his first Gold Glove and All-Star selection. He slashed .277/.329/.447 with 25 home runs, 96 RBI and 18 stolen bases all while playing excellent defense, underscoring his ability to impact the game in a number of ways.

He was also responsible for nine defensive runs saved above average, per FanGraphs.

It is a testament to the shortstop market this offseason that Swanson, who has played for the Atlanta Braves his entire career, is likely the fourth-best option in a free agency class that also features Carlos Correa, Turner and Xander Bogaerts.

Yet he is a difference-maker in the field and at the plate, which is surely what a Cardinals team looking to take the next step after three straight losses in the National League Wild Card round is pursuing this offseason.

As the newest member of the team can vouch, the Philadelphia Phillies clearly have the pedal firmly to the metal as they continue their pursuit of a World Series championship.

This particular member is none other than Trea Turner. On Monday, the speedy, powerful shortstop agreed to join the defending National League champions on a deal that ESPN's Kiley McDaniel reported is worth $300 million over 11 years:

Source: Turner is getting 11 years, $300 million with a full no trade clause https://t.co/mvpDfFLrHb

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) December 5, 2022

An additional report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post clarified that the 29-year-old Turner's contract also includes no opt-outs.

It's thus much in the mold of the 13-year, $330 million contract that Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies in March 2019. Just as that was the beginning of a wonderful partnership, the same should prove to be true of Turner's own union with the Phillies.

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Trea Turner and the Phillies Are Perfect for One Another

Contrary to Jacob deGrom's landing with the Texas Rangers, Turner's pact with the Phillies is the early leader in the clubhouse for the least surprising move of the 2022-23 offseason.

There were whispers about Turner—who debuted with the Washington Nationals in 2015 before landing with the Los Angeles Dodgers via trade midway through 2021—and the Phillies joining forces as far back as June. It therefore rang true when Jon Morosi of MLB Network on Nov. 30 tabbed the Phillies as the team to beat in his market:

The #Phillies have emerged as favorites to sign Trea Turner. My latest report here. @MLBNetwork pic.twitter.com/PVjw5f6NhP

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) November 30, 2022

As to why Turner and Philadelphia are such a good fit, well, how much time do you have?

Though it didn't keep them from coming within two wins of the franchise's first World Series title since 2008, the Phillies were among MLB's biggest stragglers at shortstop in 2022. Led primarily by rookie Bryson Stott, the players they tried at the position produced just a .651 OPS, 12 home runs, 10 stolen bases and 0.6 rWAR.

For his part, Turner's 162-game averages over the last three seasons include an .877 OPS, 27 homers, 31 steals and 5.7 rWAR. Check and mate.

Albeit on a temporary basis, the Phillies also needed a means to deepen their lineup while they await Harper's recovery from Tommy John surgery. Signing Turner did that, especially if manager Rob Thomson uses him in the leadoff spot so 46-homer slugger Kyle Schwarber can bat in the middle of the order.

Once Harper is back on the field—which should be sometime around the All-Star break—the Phillies stand to have perhaps the most dynamic offense in the NL.

They were indeed the only team in the Senior Circuit to hit 200 home runs and steal 100 bases in 2022. Turner is a proven contributor on both fronts. And given how well his elite sprint speed jibes with the larger bases and pickoff limitations coming to MLB in 2023, it's possible he hasn't yet peaked as a base stealer.

In addition to all the reasons the Phillies have to be excited right now, let's also acknowledge the things that must have Turner himself feeling elated.

The money, obviously, but also more personal matters as well. There seems to be plenty of mutual fondness between the Turners and the Harpers, and every indication is that the Turner clan also just plain digs the East Coast.

No opt out in Turner deal. But it works great for him as he’s on the East Coast in Philly (his wife is from New Jersey) with spring in Florida (he’s from Lake Worth)

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 5, 2022

So, what's not to like?

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This Is a Huge But Worthwhile Risk

Well, for one thing, that's a whole lotta years and a whole lotta dollars for someone who isn't exactly young and whose skill set isn't devoid of red flags.

Next year will be Turner's age-30 season, so his new deal will carry him all the way through his age-40 season in 2033. No matter what happens, the Phillies will invariably be saddled with his decline years.

There's a prospect that those will come sooner rather than later, if for no other reason than the aging curve for speed is about as ominous as one would think:

Trea Turner is turning 30, and his obviously elite skill is his speed. Except, speed always declines at a certain point. What does that mean for Turner's free agency?

-> https://t.co/KsnohKUtxm pic.twitter.com/d5Ni5MArq7

— Mike Petriello (@mike_petriello) December 5, 2022

The more Turner's speed dries up, the more he'll have to use other means to produce value.

Which brings us to still more red flags, including his hit-or-miss metrics at shortstop and what befell the quality of his contact last season. To wit, the 88.9 mph he averaged on batted balls was his lowest mark since his rookie campaign.

And yet to focus on how Turner might struggle to provide return on investment in the long run is to ignore the massive rewards the Phillies could reap in the short run.

Their championship window is, after all, wide-open right now. And save for Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins and José Alvarado, who are slated for free agency after 2023, the Phillies' core players are locked up for more than one season. That's the prop they need to keep said window open.

When it does start to close, Jayson Stark of The Athletic noted how Turner's contract seems explicitly designed to allow the Phillies to get the pieces they need to stop or at least slow that process:

The #Phillies strategy with Turner was very similar to how they approached the Bryce Harper talks in 2019.

They proposed a lower AAV over more years to give them more flexibility to build a roster around both players.

Both were open to that structure. Obviously!

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 5, 2022

Even now, the $27.3 million average annual value of Turner's deal is plenty reasonable. It'll become even more so with each passing year, especially in the context of rising luxury-tax thresholds.

In the meantime, still another bonus of Turner's pact is that the Phillies denied one of their biggest enemies a huge puzzle piece. Sans Turner, the Dodgers have no choice but to look elsewhere for a shortstop. And with less hope of finding a discount, to boot.

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Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson Are Now On the Clock

If Turner is worth $300 million over 11 years, what does that mean for Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson?

Nothing but good things, in all likelihood.

While the general expectation at the outset of the offseason was that Turner would secure a rather large bag, nobody forecast his contract at double-digit years with a guarantee of $300 million. That includes us, as we had him slated for eight years and $272 million.

As such, it now seems instructive to revisit our projections for the three star shortstops who are left:

• Carlos Correa: 9 years, $270 million
• Xander Bogaerts: 8 years, $240 million
• Dansby Swanson: 6 years, $140 million

Those look a little light right about now, particularly where Correa is concerned.

Correa, 28, isn't just younger than Turner. He's also more accomplished, having racked up the most rWAR of any shortstop since 2015 and the most postseason home runs of any shortstop this side of Derek Jeter. He was also ineligible for a qualifying offer and, unlike Turner, is therefore not tied to draft-pick compensation.

As he did when he signed a three-year, $105.3 million deal with the Minnesota Twins in March, Correa could once again defy expectations by accepting a short-term, high-AAV contract. But if he and agent Scott Boras want to use Turner's deal as a model, it's hard to imagine he will settle for less than 11 years, $300 million.

In any case, Turner's contract already has this offseason's market positioned to be one that no shortstop will ever forget.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

The Boston Red Sox have "been in touch" with the representatives for star slugger Aaron Judge, according to MassLive.com's Chris Cotillo.

However, Cotillo cautioned that Boston "is not one of the most aggressive teams showing interest in the reigning American League MVP."

The New York Yankees and San Francisco Giants are considered to be at the top of Judge's list. MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported Monday that "other teams remain on the periphery" and that "no prominent mystery team has emerged."

That doesn't mean Boston is out of the race.

But Cotillo's report came off as a sort of preemptive damage control so the Red Sox could say, "Hey, we tried," with the biggest MLB free agent. That's because a deal of the magnitude Judge will command would run counter to how the franchise has operated in recent years.

The Sox traded Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2020 instead of extending his contract, and the same thing might be happening with third baseman Rafael Devers. The New York Post's Jon Heyman reported Nov. 9 that "there is plenty of work to do to complete a deal" with either Devers, who is due to hit the open market in 2024, or free-agent shortstop Xander Bogaerts.

Fans would be thrilled to see Judge prowling the Fenway Park outfield for 81 games a year, but they'd also be right to question why Boston would play hardball with Betts, Bogaerts and Devers and then turn around and meet Judge's massive asking price.

ESPN's Jeff Passan reported last week that the Yankees offered Judge an eight-year contract worth around $300 million, and The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported it will take a nine-year deal to get his signature.

As things stand, Boston is projected to open 2023 with a starting outfield of Alex Verdugo, Enrique Hernández and Rob Refsnyder. Judge would clearly offer a massive upgrade.

Under a different front office, there might have been a chance for that to become reality, but it's certainly not how chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has operated since replacing the free-spending Dave Dombrowski in October 2019.

The shortstop market was always going to be a focus of Major League Baseball's free agency period this offseason, and that was certainly the case Monday.

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan reported the Philadelphia Phillies agreed to an 11-year, $300 million deal with a no-trade clause with shortstop Trea Turner. It is a head-turning deal with the security of a number of years and the no-trade clause, and he joins a team that reached the World Series just last season.

Turner's resume includes a World Series title with the Washington Nationals, a batting title, a Silver Slugger and two All-Star selections, so he will surely be a key piece in Philadelphia's already formidable lineup.

The question now is where Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson end up.

While all three are impressive players who will be major additions for whichever teams sign them, Correa is likely the headliner at 28 years old with accomplishments that include a World Series crown, Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove and two All-Star selections.

If Turner landed $300 million, that could be just a starting point for Correa.

The best fit for the former Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins shortstop is the Chicago Cubs. There is already known interest in place, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the National League Central team "jumped into the Correa sweepstakes" last offseason before he joined the Twins and "are also exploring the market" this offseason.

Chicago went to three straight National League Championship Series and won a World Series from 2015 through 2017 and should be looking to become competitive again in one of the sport's biggest markets.

Correa would allow Nico Hoerner to move to second base, provide elite defense up the middle of the diamond, doesn't come with draft pick compensation and is in the middle of his prime. He could be the face of the next true contender in the Windy City, and the team has reportedly demonstrated plenty of interest.

As for Bogaerts, his ideal fit would be with the San Diego Padres.

While that may seem like something of a wild-card pick considering Fernando Tatís Jr. is the team's shortstop, John Tomase of NBC Sports highlighted the versatility signing Bogaerts would sign for a lineup that would become arguably the top in the entire league.

"Bogaerts could easily move incumbent Ha-Seong Kim to a utility role while allowing Tatis to become a full-time outfielder, once his PED suspension ends.

"Imagine a lineup built around [Manny] Machado, Tatís, [Juan] Soto and Bogaerts. That's as good a top four as any offense in the game, and Padres GM A.J. Preller has a bit of a fantasy approach to lineup construction; ie., go get the best players and figure out how they fit later."

That leaves Swanson, who is something of a consolation prize just because of how talented the shortstop market is this offseason.

He was still an All-Star and Gold Glover just last season and is in the middle of his prime at 28 years old. Enter the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are always in win-now mode and seemingly need a shortstop after losing Turner to the Phillies.

Swanson may be a bit cheaper than the other options, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month "the Dodgers seem to view him as a very viable and interesting option."

He would reunite with former Atlanta Braves teammate Freddie Freeman and immediately bolster the team's chances at competing for a World Series against the likes of the San Francisco Giants, Phillies and others.

Japanese free-agent pitcher Koudai Senga has drawn interest from the Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network.

The soon-to-be 30-year-old had a 1.89 ERA across 23 appearances for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks last season in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. Across 11 professional seasons, he has a 2.42 ERA in 275 games while averaging 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings.

He filed for international free agency in October and has become one of the top players still available on the market.

Michael Mayer of Metsmerized provided a breakdown of Senga's repertoire:

Kodai Senga has been up to 102 mph, throws a ghost forkball, slider, curve & cutter. 1.89 ERA in 148 innings this year.

Senga’s agent noted Kodai would like to play in a big market on a win now team and is versed in/wants to learn more about analytics.

pic.twitter.com/EUd4RmxucB

— Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) November 14, 2022

Scouts also got a chance to see him against American hitters as he helped Japan beat the United States in the gold medal game at the 2020 Olympics.

Senga is drawing significant interest around the majors, with the Angels hoping to pair him with fellow Japanese star Shohei Ohtani. The Red Sox could offer Senga a major market, while the Blue Jays could be close to contention after finishing 90-72 last season.

These teams will still have to compete with others who have already made a move for Senga.

Morosi previously reported the Red Sox and New York Yankees had already spoken with Senga's representatives, while the New York Mets and San Diego Padres met with the pitcher himself, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Chicago Cubs have also monitored him, per Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.

With aces Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander already signed, it could force teams to be more aggressive in pursuing Senga.

The Philadelphia Phillies got their man.

Superstar shortstop Trea Turner reportedly agreed to an 11-year, $300 million deal with the team on Monday, per multiple reports:

Source: Turner is getting 11 years, $300 million with a full no trade clause https://t.co/mvpDfFLrHb

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) December 5, 2022

Turner gets $300 million over 11 years with a full no-trade clause, per source.

— Mark Feinsand (@Feinsand) December 5, 2022

Turner gets full no-trade clause as well. https://t.co/sdw743jRXg

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 5, 2022

According to Spotrac, the Phillies will now head into the 2023 season with a projected tax payroll of $217 million.

With the addition of Trea Turner, the #Phillies now carry 5 players with a tax salary of $20M or more.

They currently project to a $217M opening day tax payroll.https://t.co/RwV5iRuIHy

— Spotrac (@spotrac) December 5, 2022

The defending National League champions will have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. Here's what the lineup could look like once superstar Bryce Harper is able to return from offseason Tommy John surgery—expected to be sometime around the All-Star break as a designated hitter and later in the season as the right-fielder:

1. Trea Turner, SS
2. Kyle Schwarber, DH
3. J.T. Realmuto, C
4. Bryce Harper, RF
5. Nick Castellanos, LF
6. Rhys Hoskins, 1B
7. Bryson Stott, 2B
8. Alec Bohm, 3B
9. Brandon Marsh, CF

That is arguably the scariest lineup in baseball once Harper returns, assuming the Phillies can stay healthy. The Phillies could already mash, but adding the 29-year-old Turner—who hit .298 with 21 homers, 100 RBI, 101 runs, 27 stolen bases and an .809 OPS—will give the Phillies another dynamic player at or near the top of the lineup.

Add in the one-two punch of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola atop the rotation, and the Phillies are building a powerhouse.

There will be questions to be answered, like filling out the rotation behind Wheeler, Nola and Ranger Suárez. The bullpen was a huge issue in the World Series against the Houston Astros and needs to be improved. Teams with great pitching tend to fell teams with great hitting come October.

But the Phillies won't have many weaknesses at the plate. Turner's addition makes them a major threat heading into the 2023 campaign, and his addition is one of the signature signings of free agency this winter.

The Philadelphia Phillies have added one of Major League Baseball's most dynamic players in All-Star shortstop Trea Turner.

Per ESPN's Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan, Turner will sign an 11-year, $300 million contract that includes a full no-trade clause.

Trea Turner and the Phillies have agreed on a 11-year, $300M contract, per @kileymcd and @JeffPassan pic.twitter.com/hTxUIcKFmL

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 5, 2022

Turner has been one of the best players in MLB since his first full season with the Washington Nationals in 2016. He finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting, behind Los Angeles Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager, despite playing just 73 games.

The Dodgers made Turner and Seager teammates midway through the 2021 season when they acquired him, along with Max Scherzer, from the Nationals in exchange for four players.

While the trade made the Dodgers stronger on paper for the rest of 2021, it was also a shrewd bit of roster management by the front office. Seager was set to become a free agent at the end of the year, while Turner had one more year of arbitration left.

Seager wound up leaving to sign with the Texas Rangers. Turner took over as the Dodgers' starting shortstop in 2022. He turned in an excellent season with a .298/.343/.466 slash line, 21 homers, 100 RBI and 27 stolen bases.

Per FanGraphs, Turner finished ninth among all NL players with 6.3 wins above replacement. He has been worth at least 4.2 fWAR in each of the past four full seasons (excluding the 2020 season that was shortened to 60 games because of the COVID-19 pandemic).

Since the start of 2018, Turner ranks seventh in MLB with 24.9 FanGraphs wins above replacement. The two-time All-Star has a .303/.359/.491 slash line with an average of 20 homers and 29 stolen bases per season during that span.

Turner's combination of speed and power, along with above-average defense at shortstop, makes him one of the most valuable players in baseball every year.

Even if Turner's speed becomes a lesser part of his game as he starts to age, his power and glove will allow him to hold significant value in the latter years of this deal.

The Phillies will be counting on Turner to be a key player as they pursue the postseason in 2023 and beyond. It's an aggressive move for the front office, but one that seems likely to pay huge dividends given his unique skill set.

Fresh off an appearance in the World Series, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski isn't resting on his laurels.

It's not a surprise to see a team run by Dombrowski continue to make aggressive moves. It has been his modus operandi dating back to his time with the Detroit Tigers and again with the Boston Red Sox.

There's no arguing with the results, as his teams have made the World Series four times since 2006, winning with the Red Sox in 2018.

Turner fills a huge need for the Phillies at shortstop. Bryson Stott was a huge upgrade for their defense during their postseason run, but he hit only .234/.295/.358 in 127 games during the regular season.

Among 27 shortstops with at least 450 plate appearances in 2021, Stott tied for 20th in FanGraphs wins above replacement (1.4). Turner was No. 3 (6.3), behind only Francisco Lindor (6.8) and Dansby Swanson (6.4).

The Phillies will enter 2023 with a nucleus of Turner, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins. They need more depth in the starting rotation, but that offense is more than capable of letting them compete with the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves atop the NL East.

The New York Yankees announced Monday they signed general manager Brian Cashman to a four-year extension through 2026.

The New York Yankees today announced that the club has re-signed Brian Cashman to a four-year contract through the 2026 season to continue serving as Senior Vice President and General Manager. pic.twitter.com/IPLP31HwVc

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) December 5, 2022

The 2023 MLB season will mark Cashman's 26th year as GM of the Yankees and his 38th year with the organization overall.

Cashman's future with the Yanks was called into question entering the 2022 season on the heels of New York getting eliminated by the rival Boston Red Sox in the 2021 American League Wild Card Game.

While 2021 represented the Yankees' fifth consecutive playoff berth and 20th playoff appearance in Cashman's first 24 seasons as GM, postseason failures were piling up, with the Bronx Bombers failing to reach or win a World Series since 2009.

With plenty of pressure on the Yankees to contend in 2022, they got off to a red-hot start and were on pace to challenge the all-time MLB single-season wins record during the first half. However, injuries began to mount, and the Yankees hit the skids after the All-Star break, which left them battling to hang onto the American League East lead.

Ultimately, the Yankees went 99-63 and won the AL East. They beat the Cleveland Guardians 3-2 in the American League Division Series, but they were then swept by the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series.

Bob Watson, who helped assemble the Yankees' World Series-winning team in 1996, resigned following the 1997 season, which led to Cashman's elevation to GM.

The Yankees won the World Series in each of Cashman's first three seasons at the helm, and they reached the World Series in 2001 and 2003 but lost to the Arizona Diamondbacks and Florida Marlins, respectively.

The Yankees returned to the World Series in 2009 and beat the Philadelphia Phillies, giving Cashman his fourth ring as GM and the Yankees their 27th world title in franchise history.

Despite his accomplishments, it was far from a slam dunk that the 55-year-old Cashman would be back in 2023. However, the Yankees decision-makers clearly felt he did enough to keep his job.

Now, the focus shifts toward trying to re-sign AL MVP Aaron Judge, as well as making other moves to improve the roster in free agency.

Pitchers like Jacob deGrom come around once in a generation, but it only took the New York Mets a few days to find a suitable replacement.

On Monday, the first big story from MLB's winter meetings broke when Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander has agreed to terms on a two-year, $86 million deal with the Mets with a vesting option for a third year.

That's right in line with the three-year, $130 million deal Max Scherzer signed with New York last offseason in terms of average annual value (AAV). The future Hall of Famers are slated to share the starting rotation for the next two years as the Mets chase a World Series title.

Shelling out roughly $86 million for two players is uncharted territory when you consider Scherzer's deal last winter set an AAV record. To put that combined figure into perspective, it's more than the Miami Marlins ($83.0M), Cleveland Guardians ($66.5M), Pittsburgh Pirates ($66.2M), Oakland Athletics ($48.4M) and Baltimore Orioles ($44.9M) spent on their entire rosters in 2022, according to Spotrac.

It's risky to put so much on the shoulders of two players—even players as accomplished as Scherzer and Verlander—but it was the right move for the Mets, and it puts them in a great position for the remainder of the offseason and in the years to come.

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Father Time Has Been Kind

The easy argument against what the Mets have done is that they are pinning their title hopes on a 39-year-old (Verlander) and a 38-year-old (Scherzer) who both have more than 2,500 innings on their arms and could fall off dramatically in the coming years.

That said, these two have proved to be exceptions to the rule of late-30s decline.

After pitching a grand total of six innings in 2020 and 2021 because of Tommy John surgery, Verlander returned to go 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 185 strikeouts in 175 innings in 2022, winning his third AL Cy Young Award unanimously to close out an epic run in Houston.

What a run by Justin Verlander in Houston:

61-19, 2.26 ERA, 0.83 WHIP in 102 starts
2 Cy Young Awards
1 Cy Young runner-up
300-strikeout season
ALCS MVP
3rd no-hitter
3,000th strikeout
2 World Series titles

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) December 5, 2022

Meanwhile, Scherzer missed time in 2022 with an oblique strain, but he was every bit the elite starter we've grown accustomed to, finishing 11-5 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 173 strikeouts in 145.1 innings.

Both players have terrific stuff, but their understanding of how to keep hitters off-balance and their ability to limit walks have truly helped them succeed beyond their prime years. They have the chance to put the finishing touches on their respective legacies together.

Career strikeouts:

12. Justin Verlander (3,198)
13. Max Scherzer (3,193)

History, every night.

— Paul Hembekides (Hembo) (@PaulHembo) December 5, 2022

For as much as their ages might seem like an issue, the list of pitchers who have enjoyed significant success at age 38 or older is longer than you might think.

Randy Johnson won his fourth straight Cy Young and had a 10.7-WAR season at 38. Roger Clemens won his sixth Cy Young at 38 years old and his seventh Cy Young three years after that, although a PED cloud hangs over his accomplishments. Nolan Ryan won strikeout titles at ages 40, 41, 42 and 43.

Those guys are the exception rather than the rule, but isn't that also what Verlander and Scherzer have been throughout their careers given their sustained success? Count the ZiPS projection system among those who are bullish on Verlander's next two years.

Given how volatile pitching performance can be, it might be safer to bank on a pair of late-30s superstars to continue to produce at a high level than to roll the dice on younger options with a shorter track record of success.

So why not just re-sign Jacob deGrom? We have some thoughts on that...

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Letting Jacob deGrom Walk Was the Right Move

It's never easy to let a franchise icon walk, but the reality is that Jacob deGrom was the riskiest player on this year's free-agent market.

His injury history includes terms like "forearm strain" and "stress reaction in shoulder" that would make any medical staff cringe, and he has made just 26 starts and pitched 156.1 innings over the past two seasons.

He's several years younger than Verlander, but at age 34, he would similarly be classified as "old" relative to the average player's prime and career length.

For a team like the Mets with the ability to spend and the desire to win now, spending $6 million more in AAV on a two-year deal with Verlander made far more sense than locking in a five-year, $185 million commitment, which deGrom received from the Texas Rangers.

The Mets have Scherzer and Verlander lined up to hit free agency at the same time following the 2024 season, and they've gone all-in on this veteran core for the next two years without mortgaging their future flexibility.

With James McCann, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar also set to come off the books after the 2024 campaign, the Mets can look to backload any additional long-term deals they sign this winter, balancing their payroll situation without flying too far past the luxury-tax threshold in the next two years.

That's good, because as exciting as a Verlander-Scherzer one-two punch sounds, the Mets have more work to do before Opening Day.

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What's Next for the Mets?

Even with Scherzer coming back and Verlander in the fold, the starting rotation is not a finished product.

Here's the projected starting staff, courtesy of Roster Resource:

• RHP Justin Verlander
• RHP Max Scherzer
• RHP Carlos Carrasco
• RHP Tylor Megill
• LHP David Peterson

Megill started strong last season but missed three months with a shoulder strain and finished with a 5.13 ERA in 47.1 innings.

Peterson has a 4.26 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 222 innings over the past three seasons. While he has shown flashes of being a solid starting option, he probably fits best as a swingman or rotational depth on a team with World Series aspirations.

The Verlander signing likely takes them out of the market for Carlos Rodón, but a number of second-tier arms could be a fit, including a potential reunion with Chris Bassitt.

The 33-year-old reportedly seeks a deal longer than three years, though the Mets' early interest in such a contract was described as unenthusiastic.

Chris Bassitt has been seeking a contract of longer than three years. It doesn’t sound like the Mets are enthusiastic about going four or five years on Bassitt, who turns 34 in February.

— Mike Puma (@NYPost_Mets) December 4, 2022

The late bloomer is likely trying to secure as much guaranteed money as possible this winter, so he could be the perfect target for a backloaded deal. Maybe something like a four-year, $70 million contract that pays him $15 million in 2023 and 2024, and $20 million in 2025 and 2026, would make sense for all involved.

A similar offer might also make sense for Jameson Taillon, Nathan Eovaldi or Japanese right-hander Koudai Senga.

Beyond the starting rotation, the Mets are also in the market for an outfielder.

Familiar face Brandon Nimmo might take a nine-figure payday to bring back. While that's not out of the question and could also work better with some backloading, the Mets have been linked to Andrew Benintendi as well. One of the youngest players on the market, Benintendi could prefer a short-term deal with an opt-out, giving him a chance to revisit the market in a year or two.

Short-term deals with significant AAVs that don't clog the books could be the name of the game for the Mets. That approach, along with some strategic backloading, could allow them to make more major moves before the winter is over.

This is how you aggressively build a World Series contender without digging the organization into a hole that will take years to recover from once the window of contention with the current core closes.

For now, circle the June 19-21 series between the Mets and Astros in Houston as one of the must-see matchups of the 2023 season.