Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez Traded to Mariners; Reds Get Brandon Williamson, More

The Seattle Mariners acquired 2021 All-Star Jesse Winker and 2018 All-Star Eugenio Suarez from the Cincinnati Reds on Monday.
Cincinnati will reportedly receive right-hander Justin Dunn, southpaw Brandon Williamson (Mariners' No. 7 prospect, per MLB.com), outfielder Jake Fraley and a player to be named later.
Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was among the first to report details of the deal.
The cost-cutting in Cincinnati began during the 2021 offseason, with Trevor Bauer leaving as a free agent and Raisel Iglesias getting dealt to the Los Angeles Angels. The process continued this winter as the Reds traded Tucker Barnhart to the Detroit Tigers and waived Wade Miley rather than pick up his $10 million option.
Cincinnati also traded former All-Star Sonny Gray to the Minnesota Twins on Sunday.
According to The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal, the Mariners are also sending a player to be named later to Cincinnati and that the Reds are "high on that player." For now, this deal won't go down well in Southwestern Ohio.
Winker is coming off his best season, hitting .305/.394/.556 with 24 home runs and 71 RBI in 110 games. That performance led to his first career All-Star selection.
The 28-year-old is eligible for arbitration for two more years, so he isn't merely a short-term rental for Seattle.
Because he spent his career in Cincinnati to this point, Winker's production has flown under the radar a bit. Since debuting in 2017, he's 14th in MLB in wOBA (.379) and 29th in wRC+ (132). While the 2021 season represented a personal best, it wasn't a total outlier.
Winker could have a massive impact in the Pacific Northwest.
The Mariners' late push for a playoff berth fell short, but a 90-72 finish got fans excited for what's to come.
Seattle already acquired Adam Frazier from the San Diego Padres and signed Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million prior to the MLB lockout. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been reasonably aggressive to end a 20-year postseason drought.
A lineup that includes Winker, Frazier, Mitch Haniger, Ty France and J.P. Crawford has real potential. The unit will be truly formidable if Suarez rebounds and Jarred Kelenic takes a step forward in his development.
With the franchise's shifting priorities, Suarez was an obvious candidate to go in Cincinnati since he'll earn $11 million annually over the next three seasons.
The eight-year veteran struggled on offense last season, sending his trade value downward. He finished with 31 home runs and 79 RBI but registered 171 strikeouts and a .198/.286/.428 slash line. That was the continuation of an ongoing trend.
Suarez appeared in 57 games in 2020 and posted a .202/.312/.470 slash line. He also hit 15 homers while driving in 38 runs. His 189 strikeouts were MLB's highest in 2019, and he was whiffing at an even higher rate (29 percent) in the abbreviated 2020 campaign, per FanGraphs.
The 30-year-old can reasonably argue bad luck played a factor in his poor performance at the plate in 2020. His .214 batting average on balls in play was nearly 100 points lower than his career mark (.310) at the time.
Perhaps Suarez would have righted the ship in a traditional 162-game campaign. He had an .883 OPS over 23 games across September, per Baseball Reference. Some of his outlying numbers provided reason for optimism in 2021 too.
According to Baseball Savant, Suarez had a 13.8 percent barrel rate in 2019. That number ticked upward slightly in 2020 (14.4 percent). His hard-hit rate improved from 40.8 percent to 44.7 percent. His expected averages, on the other hand, told a more concerning story:
- 2018: .280 XBA, .522 XSLG, .377 WOBA, .381 XWOBA
- 2019: .251 XBA, .509 XSLG, .381 WOBA, .361 XWOBA
- 2020: .218 XBA, .475 XSLG, .326 WOBA, .328 XWOBA
There was no such turnaround in 2021. His .215 expected batting average ranked in the fifth percentile, and his weighted on-base average fell to .306.
Buying low on Suarez is a sensible gamble for the Mariners. There seemingly isn't anywhere for his performance to go but up. He'll probably continue to strike out a lot, but his batting average and slugging percentage will surely regress to the mean. Perhaps a scenery change can accelerate the process.
Should his production fail to improve, however, that $33 million he's still owed will quickly become a significant sunk cost.