Waldman MLB Betting Article

Time to bet on some baseball.
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Time to bet on some baseball.
The Seattle Mariners have shown interest in free-agent outfielder Michael Conforto, according to MLB Network's Jon Morosi.
The Athletic's Will Sammon reported on Nov. 9 the New York Mets might be open to reuniting with Conforto, who spent his first seven seasons with the team.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post listed the New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs as having weighed a move as well.
The 29-year-old missed the entire 2022 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. His value had already taken a hit before that following a down year in 2021. He had 14 home runs, 55 RBI and a .232/.344/.384 slash line to go along with a 100 OPS+, per Baseball Reference.
Assuming he takes a short-term contract to leave himself free to collect a bigger payday in 2024 or 2025, Conforto would be a worthwhile gamble this offseason. Between 2015 and '20, he had an .843 OPS and a 128 OPS+, so a team might be getting an impact hitter at a fraction of the cost.
The Mariners are well positioned to take just such a risk.
Seattle will have reigning American League Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez patrolling center field, and it already acquired Teoscar Hernández to be the everyday right fielder. Assuming he rebounds at the plate, Conforto would be a clear upgrade over Jarred Kelenic.
Since he's still only 23, it might be too early to write Kelenic off altogether, but a .168 average and a .338 slugging percentage illustrate how much he has struggled through his first two seasons.
After winning 90 games and ending their lengthy playoff drought, the Mariners will want to keep making progress in 2023. Whether it's Conforto or another option, finding a veteran outfielder to take Kelenic's place in the lineup is an obvious way to fortify the offense for that pursuit.
The Seattle Mariners are banking on a bounce-back season from 2021 All-Star Teoscar Hernandez.
Per ESPN's Jeff Passan, the Mariners have acquired the 30-year-old outfielder from the Toronto Blue Jays. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported the Mariners will deal relief pitcher Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko in exchange for Hernandez.
Swanson will provide a boost to Toronto's bullpen. The right-hander was excellent with a 1.68 ERA, 70 strikeouts and just three homers allowed over 53.2 innings in 57 appearances last season.
FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen ranked Macko as the 10th-best prospect in Seattle's farm system last season. The 21-year-old left-hander was a seventh-round draft pick in 2019. He struck out 60 with a 3.99 ERA in 38.1 innings in High-A but didn't pitch after May 21 with an unspecified injury.
The 2022 season was disappointing for Hernandez. He hit .267/.316/.491 with 25 homers and 77 RBI in 131 games. His 127 OPS+ was the third-highest mark of his career in a full season, but it was a step down from the previous two years.
In 193 games in 2020 and 2021, Hernandez had a .295/.345/.538 slash line with 84 extra-base hits. He made the American League All-Star team in 2021 and set career highs in homers (32) and RBI (116).
While he's coming off a down year, it's surprising to see a Blue Jays team with playoff aspirations move on from Hernandez without an obvious replacement in place. He is entering the final season of arbitration with a projected salary of $14.5 million, per Spotrac.
Adding Hernandez allows the Mariners to tinker with their outfield and designated hitter rotations. Newly minted AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez will continue to handle center field.
Jesse Winker in left field has been a below-average defender throughout their career. Winker had the ninth-worst defensive value rating among qualified players in 2022 (minus-12.8), per FanGraphs.
Mitch Haniger, who was Seattle's primary starter in right field, is a free agent. The acquisition of Hernandez would seem to indicate the Mariners are moving on from Haniger.
Hernandez can play both corner outfield spots, though he's also been below-average with the glove for most of his career. He has been an above-average hitter over the past five seasons with the Blue Jays. This is a great buy-low acquisition for a Mariners team looking to build after ending a 21-year playoff drought last season.
Seattle Mariners star Julio Rodríguez and Atlanta Braves star Michael Harris II were honored as the top rookies in the American and National Leagues on Monday.
Rodríguez topped the AL Rookie of the Year ballot in decisive fashion, collecting 29 first-place votes.
Harris had a somewhat slimmer 22-8 margin on teammate Spencer Strider for first-place votes in the NL Rookie of the Year voting.
Rodríguez was the heavy favorite in the American League after he established himself as a franchise cornerstone while helping guide Seattle to the playoffs for the first time since 2001.
The 21-year-old finished with 28 home runs, 75 RBI and a .284/.345/.509 slash line. Despite only appearing in 132 games, he was 21st in WAR (5.3) among position players and tied for 14th in wOBA (.366).
Beyond his contributions on the field, Rodríguez's youthful exuberance symbolized a new era for the Mariners. He's the organization's best young talent since Alex Rodriguez, and the comparisons to Ken Griffey Jr. are inescapable, though not embraced by the man himself.
"Quit comparing him to me," Griffey told The Athletic's Sam Blum in July. "Let that man create his own path."
The Mariners have already tied Rodríguez down with a 12-year, $209.3 million extension. He'll be calling the Pacific Northwest home for a long time, and there's no reason to believe the success he and the team enjoyed in 2022 represents a false dawn.
While the National League lacked a clear consensus pick, the Rookie of the Year battle was widely considered a two-horse race between Strider and Harris.
Strider wasted little time in becoming the ace of Atlanta's staff. In 131.2 innings the right-hander struck out 202 batters and posted a 1.83 FIP. According to Baseball Savant, he ranked in the 97th percentile in expected batting average (.179) and in the 96th percentile in expected slugging (.279).
Harris, meanwhile, provided an immediate impact after getting called up in May. The center fielder finished with an .853 OPS and a 135 OPS+ in 114 appearances. He helped the Braves lead the majors in slugging (.443) and isolated power (.190), per FanGraphs.
Atlanta acted quickly to reward both players for their efforts. Strider signed a six-year, $75 million extension, and Harris put pen to paper on an eight-year, $72 million deal.
The Braves have won five straight NL East titles, and their dominance of the division may not be winding down anytime soon.
Yordan Alvarez hit a game-winning, three-run home run with two out in the bottom of the ninth inning to help the Houston Astros overcome a 7-3 deficit to beat the Seattle Mariners 8-7 in Game 1 of the American League Division Series.
The Mariners tagged AL Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander for six earned runs and 10 hits through four innings to take a 6-2 lead.
Big hits included a Cal Raleigh RBI single, a Julio Rodríguez two-RBI double and a pair of Ty France RBI singles sandwiched around a J.P. Crawford solo home run.
The Astros and M's traded solo home runs courtesy of Yuli Gurriel and Eugenio Suárez, respectively, and Alex Bregman then cut the deficit to 7-5 in the eighth with a two-run blast.
The bottom of the ninth soon arrived, and the Astros got a pair of runners on base courtesy of a David Hensley hit-by-pitch and a Jeremy Peña single.
Alvarez then strolled up to the dish and smoked a Robbie Ray pitch 438 feet for the game-winner.
It was a shocking game all around, from the Mariners' dominance of Verlander to the Astros' unlikely late comeback.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and many others reacted to the Alvarez bomb, the remarkable Astros win and the Mariners' stunning collapse.
Game 2 of the Mariners-Astros series will take place in Houston on Thursday at 3:37 p.m. ET. Framber Valdez will pitch for Houston, and the M's will send out Luis Castillo.
Justin Hollander helped the Seattle Mariners clinch their first playoff spot since the 2001 campaign, and he was rewarded with quite the promotion.
Tim Booth of the Associated Press noted the Mariners announced they promoted Hollander to the role of general manager. He has been with the team since the end of the 2016 campaign and was promoted to assistant general manager before the start of the 2020 season.
Booth explained this doesn't change much in Seattle's front office since Hollander was already splitting most of the roster construction duties with president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto.
"I think it's probably more of a codification of our present roles than it is a gigantic change," Hollander said. "I get to have a cool title now."
Hollander started in Major League Baseball as a player development and scouting assistant with the Los Angeles Angels in 2008, and his career almost came full circle when he was a finalist for their GM role after the 2020 campaign.
However, Los Angeles hired Perry Minasian.
Hollander stayed with the Mariners as a result, and the move has paid off considering they are about to head to the postseason for the first time in 21 years.
With an offense centered around Julio Rodríguez, Eugenio Suárez, Ty France and others and Luis Castillo, Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert spearheading the pitching staff, there is reason for optimism with the postseason approaching.
The future is also bright after Seattle agreed to a five-year contract extension with Castillo to anchor the team alongside the 21-year-old Rodríguez for the foreseeable future, and it will be Hollander who is tasked with maintaining a contender around them after this promotion.
The longest active playoff drought in North American professional sports no longer belongs to the Seattle Mariners.
Thanks to Cal Raleigh's walk-off homer in a 2-1 victory over the Oakland Athletics on Friday the Mariners clinched their first postseason berth since 2001.
In the 21 years between playoff appearances, the Mariners have had nine winning seasons and hadn't won more than 90 games prior to this season since 2003 (93-69). The 2001 team tied the MLB record with 116 wins during the regular season, but lost to the New York Yankees in the ALCS.
The Mariners were the only team in the four major professional sports in North America (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) that had a playoff drought of at least 20 years coming into this season.
The Philadelphia Phillies are the only other MLB team that hadn't made the playoffs in at least 10 seasons entering 2022.
Seattle had an opportunity to ends its drought in 2021 with a surprising 90-72 record, but it was eliminated on the final day of the regular season when the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees clinched the American League's two wild card spots.
Rather than rest on their laurels for 2022, general manager Jerry Dipoto made aggressive moves both during the offseason and leading up to the trade deadline to make sure the Mariners were a playoff contender again.
The Mariners signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115 million contract in December. He turned in another strong season with a 3.58 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 209 strikeouts in 183.1 innings.
Dipoto took advantage of the Cincinnati Reds' offseason fire sale by acquiring Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez in March. Suarez proved to be one of the driving forces in the lineup with a team-high 31 homers.
The Mariners went back to the Reds prior to the trade deadline to acquire Luis Castillo to boost their starting rotation. The right-hander has been excellent since the move, posting a 3.34 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 10 starts with Seattle.
Castillo agreed to a five-year contract extension worth $108 million on Sept. 24. The deal will keep him with the Mariners through the 2027 season with a vesting option for 2028.
The biggest roster decision came at the end of spring training when top prospect Julio Rodriguez made the Opening Day lineup.
"It’s time for Julio Rodríguez to play in the big leagues," Mariners manager Scott Servais told reporters on April 4. "He’s just a fun kid, and the joy and the excitement he plays with is contagious. It's going to serve our team very well, and he's a really good player on top of it. It should be fun to see how that plays out."
It played out very well for the Mariners. The 21-year-old Rodriguez is arguably the front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year after making the All-Star team and posting a .280/.342/.502 slash line with 27 homers and 25 stolen bases through 129 games.
The Mariners made Rodriguez the face of their franchise in August by signing him to a contract extension that could end up being worth up to $470 million over 17 years. He has been on the injured list since Sept. 23, but could return to the lineup as soon as Monday.
Despite all of the talent on the roster, things didn't start out well for the Mariners this season. They were 29-39 after a shutout loss to the Los Angeles Angels on June 19. They have gone 57-31 in 88 games since that day.
Playing in the same division as the Houston Astros, who own the AL's best record, made it easy to overlook what the Mariners have accomplished. They have a lineup and pitching staff that ranks in the top eight in the AL in FanGraphs' value metric.
The American League is very deep heading into the postseason, but the Mariners are as dangerous as any team because of their offensive potential and the one-two punch of Ray and Castillo at the top of their rotation.
The Seattle Mariners agreed to a five-year contract extension with pitcher Luis Castillo on Saturday.
ESPN's Jeff Passan reported Castillo's extension is worth $108 million and can max out at $133 million with a sixth-year vesting option.
The Mariners acquired Castillo from the Cincinnati Reds in a July 29 trade. The 29-year-old has gone 3-2 with a 2.83 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 64 strikeouts in 54 innings over nine starts for the M's.
The Mariners have a bright future ahead of them. Superstar rookie outfielder Julio Rodríguez, who became the youngest player in MLB history to post 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases in a single season, signed a contract extension through 2034.
The 21-year-old should anchor the Mariners' lineup for a decade-plus while Castillo anchors the rotation for at least much of the next decade.
The present Mariners are pretty good themselves, as they appear destined for their first playoff appearance since 2001. They'll need to hold off the Baltimore Orioles, who are three games behind the M's for the final American League Wild Card spot, but time is running out for the O's with just a week-and-a-half remaining in the regular season.
Castillo has played a large part in the Mariners' second-half success, and he could also be a massive addition for the playoff run as well. At his best, Castillo is a shutdown ace capable of carrying the team.
He's helped create a deep and talented rotation in Seattle that also includes 2021 AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert, who is 13-6 with a 3.13 ERA.
For now, Castillo will have few turns in the rotation before the playoffs. His first start with his new contract will occur Sunday at the Kansas City Royals.
Seattle Mariners star Julio Rodríguez has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a lower back strain. The M's have called up outfielder Taylor Trammell from Triple-A Tacoma in a corresponding move.
Rodríguez has remained largely healthy throughout his rookie season; however, he exited Thursday's matchup against the Oakland Athletics with low back tightness after experiencing the same pain earlier in the month.
When healthy, the 21-year-old has been one of the best young players in the league. In 129 games, he's hitting .280/.342/.502 with 27 home runs, 73 RBI and 25 stolen bases. His performance led to a selection to the MLB All-Star Game, and he'll also likely finish toward the top of the Rookie of the Year voting.
When Rodríguez is sidelined, Dylan Moore and Jarred Kelenic see time filling in for him in center field. However, the former is more likely to play as the latter has only appeared in 41 games this season.
Moore has appeared in 94 games this season and is hitting .215/.361/.395 with six home runs, 19 RBI and 18 stolen bases.
The Mariners are second in the AL West with an 82-67 record and will need Rodríguez to remain healthy to lock up a playoff spot.