Cincinnati Reds

The stars have aligned for Trevor Bauer, who's now a free agent and the proud owner of a Cy Young Award.

Bauer was announced as the 2020 winner for the National League on Wednesday, edging out fellow finalists Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish. Now all he has to do is find a contract to his liking on the open market, which seems easy enough in theory.

And yet, exactly how much his Cy Young triumph will help his market is a fair question.

      

Trevor Bauer's Resume

• 29 years old
• No. 3 pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2011 draft
• Made his MLB debut on June 28, 2012
• Traded to Cleveland in December 2012
• In 2018, an American League All-Star and sixth in the Cy Young Award voting
• Traded to the Cincinnati Reds in July 2019
• In 2020, led the NL with 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 5.1 hits per nine innings

       

Why Bauer's Cy Young Award Might Not Move the Needle

A pitcher hitting free agency following a Cy Young-winning season? As with many things concerning the 144-year-old institution that is Major League Baseball, it's happened before.

It hasn't, though, since Roger Clemens hit the open market after winning his seventh Cy Young as a member of the Houston Astros in 2004. Bauer's situation is significantly different on two fronts: He isn't a 42-year-old borderline retiree, and teams don't evaluate free agents like they used to.

In the 2000s, especially, teams had few qualms about backing up the truck for players with star-caliber track records. It didn't matter so much if their more recent numbers didn't necessarily command huge paydays—looking at you, Barry Zito.

As Cy Young winners like Dallas Keuchel and Jake Arrieta can vouch, the free-agent market hasn't been as generous in recent years. That reflects how modern front offices care about youth, present ability and future projectability first, and everything else second.

For instance, take Gerrit Cole.

He didn't win the AL Cy Young Award for 2019, yet the market rewarded him as if he had. Because what really mattered was that he was a 29-year-old whose two most recent seasons consisted of a 2.68 ERA and a rate of 13.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Hence, the New York Yankees came running with a record-breaking nine-year, $324 million contract.

For Bauer, the bad news begins with the reality that he's nearly 30 and coming off his age-29 season, whereas his former UCLA teammate/rival entered free agency off his age-28 season.

The good news for Bauer, however, begins with how some of the numbers he posted in his walk year have a Cole-like sheen to them.

Though he didn't match Cole's record-setting strikeout rate of 13.8 per nine innings, Bauer was no slouch in whiffing 100 batters in only 73 innings. He also permitted only 17 walks and 41 hits, and his peripherals only further underscore his dominance.

To wit, Bauer's .219 xwOBA—which is based on strikeouts, walks and contact quality—is the lowest for a starting pitcher since Statcast debuted in 2015:

• 1. Trevor Bauer, 2020: .219
• 2. Clayton Kershaw, 2016: .226
• 3. Clayton Kershaw, 2015: .235
• 4. Chris Sale, 2018: .236
• 5. Gerrit Cole, 2019: .241

Bauer's pure stuff also rated as elite. The average spin rates on his fastball and curveball were in the 100th and 92nd percentiles, respectively. Overall, the 2,852 revolutions per minute that he averaged was the highest mark of any pitcher who threw at least 1,000 pitches.

Taken in tandem with his 2018 performance, all this paints Bauer as a true No. 1 starter. As in, a guy with sizzling stuff and an idea how to use it. Also as in, a pitcher worthy of a contract worth between $200 million and $300 million.

But in this case, there's more than one "yeah, but..." working against Bauer's outlook for a megadeal.

One is the right-hander's own mindset. Though he recently walked back his previous stance that he would only do one-year deals, he still attached strings to what he would be looking for as a free agent.

As he said on MLB Network Radio in September, via Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors:

"I want to be in a situation where I feel valued and I have the chance to conduct my career the way I want to conduct it. So, pitch every fourth day, and stuff like that. I want to challenge myself and have a chance to do those things. So if there’s a situation where it presents itself where it is a four-year or five-year deal, and I feel confident that's going to be a situation that's good for me, I would consider it."

There's also, of course, the complicated matter of just how confident teams will feel about Bauer even in a four- or five-year deal.

Though 2020 was obviously a good year for him, the 60-game schedule limited him to only 11 starts in the regular season, plus one more in the postseason. A sample size that small naturally begets questions about sustainability, the most pressing of which might concern the quantum leap that Bauer needed to become MLB's spin-rate king.

A sample size that small also doesn't absolve Bauer from the inconsistency that he's experienced throughout his career. Per ERA+, he was 96 percent better than the average pitcher in 2018 and 176 percent better in 2020. But in his other seven seasons, he peaked at just 9 percent better in 2017.

In other words, he's been fairly average when he hasn't been elite.

There's also no ignoring that Bauer is looking for a contract in what figures to be an unusually unforgiving market. With teams having reportedly lost about $3 billion amid the pandemic-ravaged 2020 season, saving as much money as possible will be the name of the game like never before.

Lastly, Bauer's agent, Rachel Luba, wasted no time in revealing that he would reject the Reds' qualifying offer. This was expected and certainly the right call, yet it's not exactly a good thing that he's now tied to draft-pick compensation.

All told, it's basically impossible to have a normal discussion about Bauer's value. So it's little wonder that predictions for what he might get in a multiyear contract fall all over the map, from as low as four years, $90 million (FanGraphs) to as high as five years, $135 million (The Athletic).

If winning the Cy Young is going to help Bauer's negotiations in any way, it might be in a marketing capacity. As evidenced by his social media presence on Twitter and YouTube, nobody can accuse him of being afraid of the spotlight. Between that and his shiny new award, teams might look at him and see a star whose appeal might transcend the game itself.

But in the event that teams are too skeptical of Bauer to meet his demands, it wouldn't be the biggest shock if he backed off pushing for the highest possible guarantee in favor of more of a Marcell Ozuna-like plan: In which he bets on himself with a one-year deal with the idea of trying again next winter.

Ultimately, Bauer's Cy Young Award might not change all that much. His free agency was always going to be complicated, and that still figures to be the case.

      

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

Rachel Luba, the agent for Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, announced Wednesday her client has declined the team's qualifying offer for 2021 and will become an unrestricted free agent. 

Here's her full statement:

Why wait for the QO to expire to state the obvious (plus @BauerOutage believes the QO is a ridiculous process so let’s just put it to bed)—

Trevor Bauer has rejected the QO but not the Reds, & he looks forward to speaking w/ them & all other interested teams thru Free Agency.

— Rachel Luba (レイチェル・ルーバ) (@AgentRachelLuba) November 4, 2020

Bauer is coming off a dominant 2020 season with the Reds. He posted a microscopic 1.73 ERA and 0.79 WHIP with 100 strikeouts in 73 innings across 11 starts during the coronavirus-shortened campaign.

The 29-year-old California native will likely win the NL Cy Young Award and hit free agency as one of the most coveted players available this winter.

"As far as free agency goes, I'm going to listen to every offer that comes in and make a decision where I want to play based on factors that are important to me," Bauer told reporters in September. "I want to win. I want to be happy. I want to enjoy playing baseball. I don't think any team is out of the running to sign me."

Although the right-hander's career numbers are more modest than his 2020 performance, they're still good enough to consider him a top-tier starter. He's compiled a 3.90 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 9.67 strikeout rate in nine seasons with the Reds, Cleveland Indians and Arizona Diamondbacks.

He ranks 16th in WAR (20.3) among qualified starting pitchers since 2014, when he became a full-time member of the Tribe's rotation for the first time, per FanGraphs.

Bauer should attract widespread interest in free agency, and the type of contract he signs could be a key bellwether for the type of financial outlook MLB clubs are dealing with after playing the entire 2020 regular season without fans in attendance. Some spectators were allowed for the latter stages of the playoffs.

ESPN's Jeff Passan reported the starter, who's suggested he may spend his entire career signing one-year contracts, would have been expected to receive between $40-45 million for 2021 before the pandemic, but the projection has dropped to $30-35 million "if that."

That's still a large sum but the drop may get Bauer to consider slightly longer deals, perhaps two or three years, while the MLB economy works its way back to full strength. He'd still find his way back to free agency in his early 30s with a chance for more major paydays, while securing his short-term future.

Bauer's tremendous 2020 season combined with the high number of contenders looking to upgrade their rotation should give him no shortage of options on the open market.

Nick Castellanos will reportedly remain with the Cincinnati Reds next season. 

Per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Castellanos didn't inform the Reds he was going to opt out by Friday's deadline. He will earn $14 million in 2021 by staying in Cincinnati. 

Castellanos' offseason will be very different from what he experienced last year. He was terrific down the stretch in 2019 after being acquired by the Chicago Cubs in a midseason trade. He hit .321/.356/.646 with 16 homers in 51 games. 

Despite those numbers and his age, the 28-year-old went unsigned until the Reds presented him with a unique offer. He inked a four-year deal worth $64 million in late January, but it came with player options after the first and second seasons. 

After a hot start in which he hit .366/.447/.878 in the first 12 games of 2020, his performance fell off. He posted a .192/.262/.395 slash line and struck out 58 times in 177 at-bats over his final 48 games. 

Cincinnati's offense was a disappointment. The group ranked 23rd in Major League Baseball in weighted runs created plus and 25th in FanGraphs offensive value (-31.1). 

The Reds pitching staff can carry the team to great success next season. Trevor Bauer's free agency could take a significant piece away from the starting rotation, but Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle are a strong trio to build around. 

If Castellanos hits closer to his career line of .274/.324/.472 next season, the Reds could be dangerous in a crowded National League Central after making the playoffs as a wild card in 2020. 

The Cincinnati Reds announced Wednesday that Dick Williams has resigned as the club's president of baseball operations.

Dick Williams resigns as Reds' President of Baseball Operations pic.twitter.com/Fi2PtURsRI

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) October 7, 2020

Williams had worked in the Reds' front office since 2006.

His departure comes after Cincinnati was eliminated from the 2020 MLB playoffs by the Atlanta Braves during the National League Wild Card Round last week.

Williams told Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he was planning to leave the organization to take a more hands-on role within his family business, North American Properties, regardless of how the postseason played out.

"This job can be thrilling and rewarding and maddening and crushing, sometimes all at the same time," he said. "More than anything, I was so proud to represent this unbelievable city of ours. It was the honor of a lifetime to be a small part of assembling teams that went out and battled for these fans."

Although the Reds made the playoffs just four times during his tenure with the organization, he's hopeful the foundation is now in place for long-term success.

"Serving in this role has been the honor of a lifetime," he said. "We never wavered in our quest for the ultimate prize. Ultimately, we didn't achieve as much success as I had hoped. I hope the contributions I have made in the recent past can help us continue our upwards trajectory and reach our goal in the near future."

Williams served in several different executive capacities during his 15 years with the club. He became the team's president of baseball operations in 2016 and was the general manager from 2016 through 2018. Nick Krall took over as GM in May 2018, and he is now in line to lead the front office.

The Reds are set to return most of the key contributors from their 2020 roster sans potential free-agent starting pitcher Trevor Bauer, and they have three tier-one prospects in the latest farm system rankings from Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter.

Cincinnati should enter 2021 as a top contender in the deep NL Central once again.

Since the moment the Cincinnati Reds were eliminated from the postseason by the Atlanta Braves, Twitter users from all corners of the baseball world jumped into Trevor Bauer's mentions in an attempt to convince him to sign with their favorite team. 

It doesn't appear as though the likely National League Cy Young-winner has made up his mind just yet. In fact, he appears willing to hear more offers than previously thought.

Asked in a tweet on Saturday if he'd be willing to sign with a Houston Astros franchise he's spent all season ridiculing for their cheating scandal, Bauer said he'd consider "all offers." 

I will consider all offers https://t.co/ysVteUoYJX

— Trevor Bauer (トレバー・バウアー) (@BauerOutage) October 4, 2020

Twice this year Bauer has shown off cleats mocking the Astros—first with a pair of "Free Joe Kelly" spikes after the Los Angeles Dodgers' reliever was suspended for throwing at the Astros, and later wearing a pair with trash cans painted all over them—and has worn numerous shirts mocking Houston's scandal. 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ pic.twitter.com/zKtAyPGWIh

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 19, 2020

He also called out the Astros hours after getting eliminated telling them to stay out of his mentions. 

To the fans in my mentions right now:@Reds fans: I love you all. Thanks for an amazing season! Wish you could’ve been at the ballpark!

Braves fans: Seems like y’all hate me and I wouldn’t be embraced here! What a shame... 😕

Astros fans: LOL, why are y’all here? Stay mad.

— Trevor Bauer (トレバー・バウアー) (@BauerOutage) October 1, 2020

Maybe this is another one of his troll attempts. Maybe it's Bauer working free agency. 

In any case, there may be no harder player to predict a landing spot for this offseason than the Reds star.  

The Cincinnati Reds clinched their first postseason berth in seven years thanks to their 7-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins.

SNUCK ON IN!

Up next: #RedsOctober pic.twitter.com/NLlXw7AhEl

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 26, 2020

 

Cincinnati has been building toward playoff contention dating back to the 2019 offseason when the front office acquired Sonny Gray from the New York Yankees. He anchored a rotation that turned into a formidable group with Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. 

Trevor Bauer was acquired in July 2019 as part of a three-team trade with Cleveland and the San Diego Padres. That gave the Reds four quality starting pitchers to build around. General manager Nick Krall remained aggressive last winter by signing Nicholas Castellanos and Mike Moustakas. 

Despite having those pieces in place, the Reds looked to be in trouble when they got off to a 19-25 start. They stormed back into the National League playoff race with 11 wins in their past 15 games to clinch one of the two wild-card spots. 

Now that the Reds know they will be playing in the postseason, there's an argument to be made they are one of the most dangerous clubs in the NL. Manager David Bell has arguably the deepest starting rotation in all of Major League Baseball to line up how he wants in a short series. 

Tyler Mahle’s 29.6 strikeout percentage is 35.8% better than the MLB average.

It’s the lowest of the #Reds four rotation mainstays:

Bauer - 36.0%
Gray - 31.8%
Castillo - 31.0%

— OnBaseMachine (@RedsFan_Brandon) September 25, 2020

Per FanGraphs wins above replacement, Cincinnati's starters lead the NL with 7.8; the Philadelphia Phillies are a distant second place with 6.4. The Reds staff is also the only team in the league averaging more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings (11.08) and leads the league with a 3.50 fielding independent ERA. 

The lineup has scuffled all season and currently ranks last in MLB in batting average (.211), tied for 22nd in on-base percentage (.312) and 17th in slugging percentage (.406). 

Despite those overall numbers, the Reds have hitters capable of getting hot at a moment's notice. Moustakas is slugging .548 in September. Jesse Winker is having his best offensive season with a .259/.385/.552 slash line. Joey Votto is hitting .230/.360/.514 this month. 

If those key players in the lineup continue to hit at that level, combined with the starting pitching they can throw out every night, the Reds are potentially a sleeping giant who will wake up on the postseason stage. 

Thom Brennaman has resigned from his position with the Cincinnati Reds broadcast team after he used an anti-gay slur during an Aug. 19 television broadcast.

Brennaman issued a statement to Evan Millward of WCPO Channel 9 in Cincinnati: "My family and I have decided that I am going to step away from my role as the television voice of the Cincinnati Reds. I would like to thank the Reds, Reds fans and the LGBTQ Community for the incredible support and grace they have shown my family and me."

"I am grateful for the forgiveness so many have extended to me, especially those in the LGBTQ community who I have met, spoken with and listened to almost daily over the last five weeks," Brennaman added. "With their continued guidance, I hope to be a voice for positive change."

The 57-year-old noted that he hopes to return to the broadcast booth in the future.

"I have been in this profession that I love for 33 years. It is my hope and intention to return," Brennaman wrote. "And if I'm given that opportunity, I will be a better broadcaster and a much better person.

Brennaman used the slur during the first game of a doubleheader between the Reds and Kansas City Royals when he thought he was off-air. 

After starting the broadcast of the second game, Brennaman was removed from the booth and was replaced by Jim Day. The Reds issued a statement that same night, saying they were "devastated by the horrific, homophobic remark made this evening by broadcaster Thom Brennaman."

The team also announced Brennaman had been immediately suspended and they would "be addressing our broadcasting team in the coming days."

The Reds issued a statement following Brennaman's announcement on Friday, noting they respected his decision:

pic.twitter.com/chXq4kWlk9

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 25, 2020

Fox Sports also announced Brennaman wouldn't be part of its NFL broadcast team this season. 

Brennaman has served as Cincinnati's primary play-by-play announcer since 2007. 

 

Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Trevor Bauer authored an eight-inning, one-run, 12-strikeout performance in a 6-1 home win over the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday.

When asked after the game whether he believed he had done enough to earn the National League's Cy Young award, he replied, "I don't know how you could see it any other way," per Bob Nightengale of USA Today.

Bauer is 5-4 with a 1.73 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 73.0 innings.

ESPN's Cy Young predictor isn't as high on Bauer's chances. He's 10th on the NL pitcher rankings, with Atlanta Braves southpaw Max Fried and Chicago Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish tied up top.

Bauer has the best ERA among all starters on that list and the second-best ERA overall behind only Chicago Cubs closer Jeremy Jeffress. He's also No. 1 in both strikeouts and shutouts.

However, his 5-4 record is unsightly compared to others. Fried is 7-0, and Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is 6-2.

Voters could also use team record against Bauer. He's on a mediocre 29-28 Reds team fighting for a playoff berth, while Fried, Darvish and Kershaw are playing on division leaders (or clinched winners, in Kershaw's case).

However, judging pitchers by wins and losses is a largely archaic method these days. Statistics such as XFIP, strikeout rate and SIERA have proved far more valuable.

The Cy Young is also given to the best pitcher in each league and not the most valuable, which brings with it an edge and bias toward players on better teams. In other words, the Reds' up-and-down season shouldn't be held against Bauer.

Bauer has been lights-out this year and has clear advantages over other pitchers in the field. While he may not be a shoo-in for the award, he can clearly make a case for being the NL's top starter.

Trevor Bauer isn't pitching against the Houston Astros on Saturday, but that's not stopping the Cincinnati Reds ace from trolling them.

Bauer took the mound for his start against the Chicago White Sox wearing cleats featuring trash cans in an apparent nod to the Astros' sign-stealing scandal.

Trevor Bauer's cleats tonight 👀

(via @reds) pic.twitter.com/inhY1OogmS

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 19, 2020

This isn't the first time Bauer has attempted to use his cleats to troll the Astros. Last month, Bauer attempted to wear cleats that said "FREE JOE KELLY," along with a superimposed meme of the Los Angeles Dodgers reliever mocking Astros players. Kelly was suspended earlier this season for purposely beaning Astros hitters in retaliation for their cheating.

Bauer has been an outspoken critic of the Astros and commissioner Rob Manfred, who allowed Houston players to go unpunished in exchange for their cooperation into MLB's investigation.

When Bauer unveiled plans to pitch in his Kelly cleats, MLB threatened to fine and perhaps suspend him. It appears the Reds star went through the proper channels to get these cleats approved, so we'll have to see what reaction comes from Houston's dugout. 

Thom Brennaman has spoken publicly for the first time since being suspended for using an anti-gay slur on the air during an Aug. 19 game between the Cincinnati Reds and Kansas City Royals. 

In an interview with Mark Fischer of the New York Post, Brennaman said he knows "there are a lot of people who are still very angry and I understand that."

Brennaman was heard saying (warning: NSFW language) "one of the f-g capitals of the world" on his microphone. He later apologized on the air before being replaced during the game by Jim Day. 

Speaking to Fischer, Brennaman couldn't recall the context that led him to using the slur:

"Everything happened so fast. And I'm watching literally everything fall apart at the seams while trying to announce a baseball game.

"I couldn't even tell you what happened, where it came from. … Look, I said it is all that matters. The rest of it is irrelevant. I said it. And I own it. And I'm the one who has to live with it."

On Aug. 19, the Reds announced Brennaman had been suspended from announcing games on Fox Sports Ohio and they would address their "broadcasting team in the coming days."

Fox Sports also announced Brennaman would not be used on NFL broadcasts for the 2020 season.

Brennaman had called Reds games for Fox Sports Ohio since 2007. He has also worked as national play-by-play announcer for Fox Sports' MLB and NFL games since 1994.