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Trevor Lawrence's Rise to Stardom Could Have Major Impact on AFC Playoff Race
Dec 20, 2022
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA - DECEMBER 18: Trevor Lawrence #16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars looks to pass against the Dallas Cowboys during the second half at TIAA Bank Field on December 18, 2022 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)
When the Jacksonville Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 pick of the 2021 NFL draft, the last month is what they envisioned.
During that span, Lawrence has catapulted the Jags from a major deficit in the AFC South to the edge of the playoff race. He's tallied a trio of 300-yard, three-touchdown performances while leading three fourth-quarter comebacks and also defeating a key division rival. He is the single most impactful reason that Jacksonville is winning games.
Lawrence's much-anticipated breakout stretch is here, and it might just result in an improbable postseason bid.
Four weeks ago, the Tennessee Titans held a commanding edge in the AFC South. At 7-3, they had a four-game lead over the 3-7 Jaguars, who had just lost their fifth straight game and were behind the reeling 4-6-1 Indianapolis Colts.
The Jaguars beat the Las Vegas Raiders to begin November, but the Raiders have struggled through most of this season. That result led more to criticism of Vegas than praise for Jacksonville.
But after an unsurprising loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and a bye week, the Jags' trajectory has done a complete 180. After three wins in their past four games, they're merely a game behind the Titans in the AFC South and quietly two back in the wild-card race.
Jacksonville's remaining schedule is favorable, with only the New York Jets, Houston Texans and Titans left to play. The Jags' path to the playoffs is firmly in their control.
That's largely a credit to Lawrence.
Lawrence opened this month-plus hot streak with 321 passing yards and three touchdowns in a stunning 28-27 win over the Baltimore Ravens. Jacksonville scored 18 points in the fourth quarter, recovering from a 19-10 deficit and sealing the victory with a touchdown and two-point conversion in the closing seconds.
They followed that up with an ugly loss against the Detroit Lions, but they responded with an emphatic win at Tennessee and comeback victory over the Dallas Cowboys. Lawrence accounted for 339-plus total yards and four touchdowns in both triumphs.
Those numbers only begin to tell the story, though.
Lawrence has settled into the quarterback-friendly offense that new head coach Doug Pederson installed this season. Stable coaching from Pederson has quickly minimized the potential long-term danger that then-Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer posed to Lawrence's development last year.
Smarter decisions have fueled Lawrence's ascent. Since the beginning of November, he leads the NFL with a 70.4 completion rate, per CBS Sports, and he has tossed only one interception in 223 attempts.
Lawrence is taking fewer risks compared to his frustrating rookie campaign. Pressure may still lead to mistakes, but he's more comfortable dealing with blitzes and has been clinical in clean pockets.
Plus, the Clemson product has regularly started to hit big passes on the move. Against the Cowboys, his 59-yard touchdown throw to Zay Jones kickstarted the 17-point comeback.
Because of his surge, the Jaguars are on the brink of stealing the AFC South from the Titans.
Tennessee has now lost four straight games, including its Week 14 letdown at home to Jacksonville. While the Titans also play the Texans, the upcoming Week 17 clash with the Cowboys is a bad matchup for a Tennessee offense that has cracked 20 points only twice since the Week 6 bye.
If the Jags at least match Tennessee during the next two weeks, they'll be headed for a winner-take-all showdown in the regular-season finale at home against the Titans.
Even if the Titans snap out of their extended slump, the Jags could impact the wild-card race, too. They could hand the Jets a crushing loss, practically eliminating them because of their disadvantages in tiebreakers.
The Jaguars can lose to Tennessee and still technically have a shot at a wild-card berth at 8-9. They'd remain in play if either the Miami Dolphins or Los Angeles Chargers lose out, the Jets fall to the Seattle Seahawks, the New England Patriots finish 1-2 (with a victory over Miami) and none of the Raiders, Cleveland Browns or Pittsburgh Steelers win out.
However, success for Jacksonville in 2022 will not be judged on whether a playoff trip happens. This season was all about adapting to a new coach, unlocking a better version of Lawrence and building around him.
Check, check and check.
Jacksonville isn't close to a finished product. Nearly every fourth-quarter lead still haunts seasoned fans who've endured late-game collapses throughout the franchise's history. Heck, the Jags squandered a handful of leads before Lawrence spurred this hot streak.
For the first time in a half-decade, though, the Jaguars have serious hope for the future.
They're a win over Houston away from defeating every AFC South opponent at least once, which hadn't happened since 2010. They're more competitive on a weekly basis, including against playoff-caliber teams. They're eager for the debut of suspended wideout Calvin Ridley, whom they acquired ahead of the trade deadline, in 2023.
And they have a young quarterback who is performing at the level of a legitimate star.
The future is bright in Jacksonville. Thanks to Lawrence's torrid month, that future might arrive a year early.
For each of the four regions, we will discuss one team in better shape than it was
The Red Sox Are the Biggest Loser of MLB's Wild Offseason
Dec 20, 2022
BOSTON, MA - OCTOBER 6: General Manager Brian OHalloran, President & CEO Sam Kennedy, Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom, and Manager Alex Cora of the Boston Red Sox address the media during a press conference following the final game of the 2022 season on October 6, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
The Boston Red Sox have been through such things as an 86-year championship drought, Chicken-and-Beer-Gate and Bobby Valentine's managing, so the phrase "low point" has no business being used in conjunction with the offseason they're having.
But "baffling point?" Or "befuddling point?" Now we're talking.
While other teams revel in their contributions to Major League Baseball's record-setting $3.5 billion offseason, the Red Sox are in a corner typically reserved for the Eeyores and Richie Tenenbaums of the world. Heavy losses will do that, and it feels like they've suffered even more of those this winter than they did during their pitiful 36-53 slide to last place in the American League East during the back half of the 2022 season.
Franchise shortstop Xander Bogaerts? He's gone to the San Diego Padres, and who can blame him? Especially now that, courtesy of ESPN's Joon Lee, it's out there that Boston set the stage for his exit with "a slap" of an initial offer.
Chaim Bloom has been re-living the Xander Bogaerts negotiations in his head
“There are a couple of regrets”
The decision to let Bogaerts walk have prompted questions about whether the ownership group is committed to winning
Fellow middle-of-the-lineup mainstay J.D. Martinez? He's now a Los Angeles Dodger. Lefty sidewinder Matt Strahm? A Philadelphia Phillie. Fellow hurlers Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can still technically return to Beantown, but rumors of interest in eachofthem elsewhere don't bode well in the context of all of the above.
Even Boston's less painful departures still hurt in other ways. The designations for assignment of Eric Hosmer and Jeter Downs, specifically, leave the Red Sox with even less to show for trades involving young lefty Jay Groome and some guy named Mookie Betts.
This Isn't for Lack of Trying (and That's Not a Compliment)
San Diego Padres' Xander Bogaerts, left, plays with his beard as general manager A.J. Preller looks on at a news conference held to announce that Bogaerts' $280 million, 11-year contact with the Padres has been finalized, Friday, Dec. 9, 2022, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)
The ironic part is that the Red Sox's offseason actually started on a positive note.
They began dealing before the '22 season was even over, inking Enrique Hernández to a $10 million extension in September. An encouraging move on its own, and that much more so, given what chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told the versatile 31-year-old.
"I'm not going to say he promised me," Hernández said, "but he promised me that we're going to be way better next year."
So it went in October, when there was buzz about the Red Sox extending Bogaerts and adding much-needed power. And into November, wherein Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that the Red Sox were showing a "strong willingness to spend." And even to earlier this month, when Bloom openly spoke of adding "seven, eight, nine, maybe more players."
It all sounded so good. And not even too good to be true, either.
Boston's projected 2023 payroll was at one point more than $80 million in average annual value short of next year's $233 million luxury-tax threshold. It's also not as if the Red Sox have been strangers to big spending in 20 years under John Henry, whose Fenway Sports Group empire is reportedly worth $9.8 billion.
And yet, here they are. Not just with a cringe-worthy list of departures but sans even one of the market's top-25 free agents or a single upgrade via the trade market. All because of hubris. Or maybe ignorance. Or some combination of the two.
It's all there in the Bogaerts saga. The supposed slap-like offer that Boston made him during spring training called for him to get another year and $30 million on top of the three years and $60 million he had remaining on his contract. At $90 million, the total guarantee was $50 million less than what the Red Sox had just given to Trevor Story.
Fast-forward to December, and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported Boston's final offer to be a whopping $120 million south of the $280 million he got from the Padres.
The Red Sox offer to Bogaerts was for 6 years and roughly $160M - a higher AAV (roughly $27M) than he got from SD ($25.5M), but with such a massive gap in term that it wasn’t close https://t.co/uqaU854bFu via @BostonGlobe
Even at the time, Boston seemed guilty of misreading the market. It was apparent that it was going to be hotter than expected when relievers Rafael Montero and Robert Suárez signed above-market deals in November. Once Jacob deGrom, Trea Turner and Aaron Judge greeted the winter meetings with deals worth a combined $845 million, even more so.
Now there's no longer any need to speculate. This quote from Bogaerts' agent, Scott Boras, on the Red Sox to Lee speaks volumes: "I can only say that the market for Xander was very different from what their models said. But that's happened before."
It's easy to put this on Bloom, and not undeservedly so, given Boras' subsequent shade about Bloom's player evaluations being "very defined." Yet ample blame must also be set aside for Henry and co-owners Tom Werner and Larry Lucchino. Bloom is their guy, after all, and one wonders if his valuations are so strict because his budget is, too.
What the Red Sox Have Done Isn't Nearly Good Enough
BOSTON, MA - DECEMBER 15: Masataka Yoshida #7 of the Boston Red Sox speaks during a press conference announcing his contract agreement with the Boston Red Sox on December 15, 2022 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
The Red Sox have, of course, not been totally derelict in their duty of improving the team.
Spotrac puts their free-agent spending at $73.2 million, which covers third baseman Justin Turner and relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely RodrĂguez. It's technically not counting Japanese star Masataka Yoshida, who inked a five-year, $90 million pact with Boston.
Heck of a lot of good it's done them, though. If FanGraphs' WAR projections for 2023 are any indication, the Red Sox are on track to be one of the AL's worst teams once again:
This right here highlights the major distinction between the Red Sox and other offseason losers like, say, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Though they've also suffered heavy losses while doing less than expected, they still project as a top-five team in the National League.
And this outlook might actually be too bullish on Boston, if for no other reason than it's contingent on the extremely unlikely possibility of the club getting 3.0 WAR from an older, more injury-prone Chris Sale.
There's likewise room for doubt as to whether Jansen will solidify Boston's bullpen from the top down. His reputation precedes him, but he's fresh off a career-high contact rate, and his slow tempo casts him as a bad fit for the upcoming pitch timer.
The Red Sox may therefore need their offense to do the heavy lifting in 2023, perhaps to a point where it'll need to be even better than the unit that finished fourth in the AL in scoring this past season.
This, also, is extremely unlikely.
The Red Sox will need Turner and Yoshida to be at least as good as Bogaerts and Martinez, who combined for a 127 wRC+ in 2022. Alas, the 38-year-old Turner is effectively an older and less powerful Martinez. And while Yoshida was a .326 hitter with decent power in Japan, seemingly nobody but the Red Sox believe he'll be an impact hitter in the majors.
Good Luck Trying to Salvage This Offseason
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 22: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox reacts during his at bat in the third inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on September 22, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
The silver lining should be that the Red Sox still have ample time to salvage their offseason, but what they don't have in as much abundance as time is options.
The free-agent market, as noted, has largely been picked clean. That basically leaves the trade market, which Bloom identified as "a really good route to adding impact to our club" to Chad Jennings of The Athletic.
In the wake of Xander Bogaerts leaving for San Diego, the Red Sox are shifting their focus to the trade market. “It’s something we are very, very actively exploring,” Chaim Bloom said. https://t.co/NNvb5Ejs6Q
And yet, it's doubtful that slugging first base prospect Triston Casas and hard-throwing righty Brayan Bello are going anywhere while they're slated to be a part of the big club in 2023. One supposes there's always Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran, but they have "value" like Wally has a full set of fingers.
None of this necessarily helps Boston's leverage in trade talks. Nor does the fact that the club's predicament is an open secret. It's hard to imagine them getting a favorable deal on anyone, particularly not on guys like Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds (who wants out) and Cleveland Guardians shortstop Amed Rosario (who seems redundant).
Rather than miraculously acquiring immediate upgrades, the Red Sox's best hope for redeeming their offseason concerns Rafael Devers.
Ideally, the Red Sox will extend him before free agency calls his number after the 2023 season. The two-time All-Star third baseman is only 26 and thus a relatively safe bet for the kind of lifetime contract that's suddenly en vogue around MLB.
But since the word from Lee is that Devers and the Red Sox are "galaxies apart" in negotiations—and, boy, does that track right now— it's hard not to ponder if trading Devers is the more practical thing to do.
Even setting aside the galactic gulf in contract talks, there's logic in selling high on him now while he's riding high after slamming 65 home runs across 2021 and 2022. Perhaps he'll remain that guy in 2023, but there's always the possibility of him running afoul of injuries or ineffectiveness and losing value accordingly.
This, to be sure, is the nuclear option for what offseason the Red Sox have left to work with. But, hey, the fact that anyone can even have this thought is on them.
When you go from teasing the construction of a "way better" team to desperately trying to avoid becoming an even worse team, you've messed up.
