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Are Russell Wilson's Best Days Behind Him?

Nov 18, 2022
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 13: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos walks off the field after his team's 17-10 loss to Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 13: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos walks off the field after his team's 17-10 loss to Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Russell Wilson is a nine-time Pro Bowler who has been victorious in 65 percent of his career starts and is thus well on track to become a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. But basically all of the quarterback's achievements came during a 10-year run with the Seattle Seahawks.

This year, as a member of the Denver Broncos, he's seen it all come crashing down.

Remarkably, following a fourth consecutive mediocre performance in a 17-10 Week 10 loss to the Tennessee Titans, and with a divisional matchup against the desperate Las Vegas Raiders on the Week 11 horizon, Wilson is the NFL's eighth-lowest-rated qualified passer. Only four quarterbacks have thrown fewer touchdown passes per attempt, and only oft-maligned Carolina Panthers signal-caller Baker Mayfield has a lower qualified completion rate.

From an advanced standpoint, the 11-year veteran is also a bottom-10 quarterback in terms of both DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders. And despite a strong arm and a clutch reputation, he hasn't been any better than his baseline numbers on deep balls or third downs.

On top of all that, he came under fire this week from former Broncos offensive lineman Tyler Polumbus, who said Wilson is "using audibles from the Seahawks."

"The guys don't know the audibles," Polumbus added on Denver's FM 92.5. "He's using code words that the guys don't know."

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 17: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos calls a play at the line during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on October 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 17: Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos calls a play at the line during the first quarter against the Los Angeles Chargers at SoFi Stadium on October 17, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Naturally, the Broncos—who were the focus of much hype entering 2022—are practically toast at 3-6, wasting a relatively cheap season ($17 million cap hit) in their new franchise quarterback's prime.

Is it the transition to a new offense with green coaches? Is it that the oft-beaten-up signal-caller is hitting a wall on the verge of his 34th birthday? Maybe a little of Column A, a little of Column B?

Regardless, it's fair to wonder if the one-time Super Bowl champ will ever be the same.

If a bright side exists, it's that Wilson has led three fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives in 2022. If not for those, the Broncos would be winless.

So it's not as though he's lost everything that made him special in Seattle. But it's still not even close to enough, and it's not as though he enjoyed substantially more support there than he has in Colorado.

Per Pro Football Reference, nobody has been under more pass-rushing pressure than Wilson this season, and only Justin Fields and Joe Burrow have taken more sacks. But only a handful of quarterbacks were pressured more than him last season in Seattle, and his under-pressure numbers were similarly ugly in 2020, 2019 and 2018.

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 13: DeMarcus Walker #95 of the Tennessee Titans sacks Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 13: DeMarcus Walker #95 of the Tennessee Titans sacks Russell Wilson #3 of the Denver Broncos during the fourth quarter at Nissan Stadium on November 13, 2022 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

In fact, during his time with the Seahawks, Wilson was sacked more frequently than any other quarterback who made at least 60 starts over that 10-year period—and by quite a wide margin.

Meanwhile, only three qualified quarterbacks have benefited from more yards after the catch per completion than Wilson has this season—although that number can sometimes be indicative of smart quarterback play as well.

Regardless, while he surely misses standout wide receivers Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf from his previous home, the drop-off to Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy doesn't explain much, and there doesn't appear to be a drop-off at all regarding pass protection.

Plenty of quarterbacks have excelled well into their late 30s, if not early 40s. But few or any took as much abuse as Wilson has during the last 11 years. He could simply be hitting a wall in his mid-30s, just as Ben Roethlisberger, Dan Marino and Joe Montana did.

The new environment is undoubtedly a factor, but did that slow down an even older Tom Brady when he jumped from New England to Tampa Bay? Peyton Manning didn't miss much of a beat in his transition from Indianapolis to Denver, and just last year we witnessed a Super Bowl-level move from Detroit to the Los Angeles Rams for Matthew Stafford.

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 18: Head coach Nathaniel Hackett of the Denver Broncos speaks to Russell Wilson (3) on the field during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday, September 18, 2022. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 18: Head coach Nathaniel Hackett of the Denver Broncos speaks to Russell Wilson (3) on the field during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday, September 18, 2022. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

So that alone doesn't excuse Wilson's play in 2022. You have to wonder if we're seeing a version of what happened to Donovan McNabb, who, like Wilson, was a Pro Bowler in his age-33 season with the Philadelphia Eagles, was a mess in his age-34 campaign with Washington and was out of the league soon after that.

Sure, maybe this adjustment has been more difficult than expected because Wilson was so ingrained in the processes in Seattle, where he had one head coach the entire decade he was there.

The callout from Polumbus hints at that, and it's fair to assume he'll become more acclimated with time. It doesn't help that Denver head coach Nathaniel Hackett is new to that role as well, or that offensive coordinator Justin Outten is also working with that title for the first time in his career.

There were bound to be growing pains, but the gap between what we're seeing and what's expected of Wilson is quite massive. And in the next three years alone, he's slated to cost the Broncos $112.8 million, per Spotrac. As his cap hits grow, it will become more difficult for management to surround him with better or even similar talent.

"I've been down before," Wilson said in a Monday press conference. "It doesn't mean that we can't come out on the other end of it all."

He's right, but he hasn't been down to this extent and at this age. Eventually, you don't "come out on the other end of it all," and the reality is it's possible we've seen the best of one of this generation's most impressive quarterbacks.


Statistics via Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted.