Carlos Correa

Major League Baseball's lockout will obviously have to end first, but the New York Yankees may yet plug their hole at shortstop with a big-name free agent.

The Yankees' one-year, $2 million deal with reliever Joely Rodriguez represents their one and only major league signing before the lockout, yet ESPN's Buster Olney reported that some agents believe the team will be "aggressive" when the market reopens.

Specifically, on their radar could be two All-Star shortstops: Carlos Correa and Trevor Story.

Notably, this runs contrary to a November report from Joel Sherman of the New York Post. That one claimed the Yankees won't be paying for a top-tier shortstop, in part because they don't want to block top prospects Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza.

And yet, the anticipation that the Yankees will be aggressive makes some sense.

Any team on a win-now mission—which they most definitely are—can't afford to be deficient at a position as important as shortstop. And unless Volpe or Peraza is going to blossom right out of the gate in 2022, deficient is what the Yankees are at shortstop as long as Gio Urshela is the default starter. He is, after all, a 30-year-old best known for playing third base.

As for whether Correa or Story suits the Yankees better, let's break it down by price and talent and then come to a conclusion.

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One of These Guys Is Much More Expensive Than the Other

Back in November, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reported the Houston Astros sought to retain Correa by offering him a five-year deal worth $160 million.

Even then, however, that was about half what Correa was hypothetically worth on the open market. And in the form of Corey Seager's 10-year, $325 million pact with the Texas Rangers, Correa now has an actual target to match or exceed.

Though Correa and Seager are both 27, the former is a seasonal age younger. Correa has also been significantly more productive, outproducing Seager by 12.8 rWAR since their respective debuts in 2015 and by 3.5 rWAR just in 2021. That's not counting Correa's work in the postseason, where he's already top-10 all-time with 18 career home runs.

So, never mind just 10 years and $325 million. In Correa's mind, a fair deal might be more like the $340 million contracts that fellow shortstops Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor signed earlier this year.

Story, meanwhile, is in a different spot.

Even if he's a two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger in his own right, it matters that Story isn't coming off a particularly good season. Though he was worth a respectable 4.2 rWAR for the Colorado Rockies, that came paired with the second-lowest OPS+ of his career (103).

It didn't help that, in a sort of recurrence of what happened to him in 2018, Story dealt with an elbow injury. And at 29, he's more middle-aged than young by baseball's modern standards.

By way of Javier Baez's six-year, $140 million deal with the Detroit Tigers, this winter's market does offer some precedent for what a risky 29-year-old shortstop like Story might expect in his next deal. If a similar offer doesn't materialize, it's perhaps not outside the realm of possibility that Story will choose to bet on himself in a one-year deal.

But while this means that Correa and Story present two entirely different investment outlooks for the Yankees, they do have at least one thing in common.

According to Roster Resource, the Yankees are already looking at a $226.4 million luxury-tax payroll in 2022. That's already over the $210 million threshold from 2021, and less than $15 million in average annual value from the MLB Players Association's preferred threshold of $240 million for 2022.

Put another way, there's no deal the Yankees can make with either Correa or Story that would keep them from running afoul of the luxury tax next season.

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These Are Two Really Talented Shortstops

To the extent that Correa leads not only Seager, but also Story and indeed all shortstops in rWAR over the last seven years, pretending like he has any peers at his position is a fool's errand.

It used to be possible to quibble about Correa's glovework, but not so much now. His defensive runs saved have consistently been in the black, and this year's Gold Glove and Platinum Glove triumphs are backed by a league-high 20 DRS and 12 outs above average.

This alone is something that the Yankees should cherish about Correa. Even going off his OAA readings, he'd still be a massive upgrade for a position that's tied for 26th with minus-12 OAA over the last two seasons.

Correa has been more up and down offensively, with red flags including subpar production in 2018 and 2020 and a career year in 2017 that comes with a nefarious explanation. That was the season of the Astros' banging scheme, from which Correa benefited more than most.

Even still, there's only so much you can do to explain away numbers like a career 127 OPS+ and 133 home runs.

In particular, the notion that Correa's excellence in 2017 was a product of the banging scheme doesn't hold up. He's topped a 130 OPS+ twice since then, including in 2021 as he operated with above-average walk, strikeout and hard-hit rates.

Correa even took a step toward becoming an ideal fit for Yankee Stadium. The right-handed swinger hit a career-high 48 fly balls to the opposite field. Had he actually been a Yankee, he'd have collected more home runs on those:

Correa does have some injuries in his past, but not in the last two years, as he played in all but 14 of Houston's regular-season contests. That might not be a coincidence, as he reportedly improved his conditioning and nutrition ahead of the 2020 season.

As for Story, the elbow injury that he sustained earlier in 2021 could explain why he landed in the red defensively with minus-four outs above average. It might not have helped that his arm was further taxed by a deeper starting position (145 feet from home) than usual.

Or, this might just be noise. Story did salvage nine defensive runs saved, after all, which is also a category where he has even Correa beat since debuting in 2016.

On the other side of the ball, Story's primary claim to offensive fame is a home run stroke that's produced a shortstop-high 158 long balls over the last six seasons. And even when accounting for Coors Field, he's the only other shortstop besides Correa who has four seasons with at least a 120 OPS+ out of the last six.

Though Story missed hitting that mark once again in 2021, he might not have if he hadn't been so unlucky. By Statcast's estimates, he missed out on more home runs than any other player this season. Further, he had nearly the same expected slugging percentage on balls in play as Correa:

• Correa: .610 xSLG
• Story: .602 xSLG

What's more, Story's swing might be even more tailored for Yankee Stadium than Correa's. The fellow righty swinger hit even more opposite-field fly balls in 2021, a handful of which would have cleared the short right-field porch in the Bronx:

In addition to power, Story also offers speed and a better bat-to-ball skill than you might think. He's third among shortstops in stolen bases over the last four years, and his lowest strikeout rates have come in the last two seasons.

So even though he figures to cost half as much as Correa, Story has upside as a shortstop who's at least as good.

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What We'd Do

With free agents, it's not all about dollars and ability. There's also the matter of fit, which is where Correa has question marks that Story doesn't. 

The big one, of course, is whether there are any lingering hard feelings in a Yankees clubhouse that's still populated by guys who remember how the Astros beat them and then won the World Series in 2017. One of them is super-slugger Aaron Judge, who said of the Astros: "You cheated and you didn't earn it."

That could make things awkward for Correa if he were to come to New York. Plus, some Yankee fans might understandably be miffed about Correa's recent disparaging remarks about Derek Jeter's defense. They kinda like that guy in New York.

Given that Jeter was his favorite player when he was growing up, you're not likely to hear anything like that from Story. And even if Story doesn't have anything resembling Correa's postseason credentials, it might mean something to the Yankees that the ones he does have aren't marred by scandal.

Nonetheless, we'd still sign Correa if we were the Yankees.

The choice here is essentially between a riskier contract and a riskier player, with Correa as the former and Story as the latter. Story makes sense if the Yankees' primary goal is to spend money wisely, but Correa is the better bet if their goals are entirely on the field.

That's where they should always be, but especially now. As much as the Yankees like to fancy themselves as an exceptional team, they simply haven't been in recent years. They've won a single American League East title in the last nine years, with a World Series drought that's been going since 2009. By traditional Yankees standards, this is intolerable stuff.

Besides, the Yankees are due plenty of payroll relief after 2022. All the more reason to get the best player money can buy now and worry about the rest later.

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Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

The 2021 Major League Baseball offseason continues to roll on in its own way. While the lockout has put a stop to free-agent signings and trades, other moves are unfolding. Minor-league deals are allowed, and some franchises are filling out their front offices.

The New York Mets, meanwhile, are still narrowing down their search for a manager. Buck Showalter appears to be the front-runner there, but there's no guarantee that he actually gets the job.

Hear Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro made a great impression with Mets higherups. Astros bench coach Joe Espada interviews tonight and Buck Showalter tomorrow. Showalter seems like safe choice due to successful MLB track record but hear it’s more “divided” than fans/media expect.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) December 16, 2021

Regarding trade candidates and unsigned free agents, the work stoppage has provided time for pre-lockout details to emerge. The hot-stove period of the offseason is usually a fast-moving entity, but we've had a chance to dissect what teams were thinking before the lockout and how they might move when it ends.

The Tampa Bay Rays, it seems, are keen on having financial flexibility once the market reopens.

"With so many unsigned free agents and the avalanche of player movement inevitable, the Rays—like other teams—have talked internally about being in the best position possible to react quickly to acquisition opportunities, as needed," ESPN's Buster Olney wrote.

Trading center fielder Kevin Kiermaier could be part of Tampa's plan. He was on the trade block last year, and according to Olney, the Rays have engaged in talks with at least one franchise.

"Managing payroll is a constant challenge for the Rays, given the front office's budget limitations, and before the trade deadline, Tampa Bay was engaged in talks with the Phillies (and perhaps other teams) about center fielder Kevin Kiermaier," Olney wrote.

The three-time Gold Glove-winner is a valuable piece of the Rays organization, but he's also set to earn $12.2 million in 2022, according to Spotrac. That's a large sum for a budget-conscious franchise like Tampa Bay.

Kiermaier's contract includes a club option in 2023 and a $2.5 million buyout. That adds another element to the trade picture. If Tampa doesn't plan on keeping Kiermaier past this season, dealing him now would make a lot of sense. The Rays could get something in return while reducing their payroll and avoiding the 2023 buyout entirely.

According to Olney, the Rays can best maximize their value by dealing Kiermaier during spring training.

      

Tigers Made 10-Year offer to Carlos Correa

A few big-name players remain on the free-agent market, including shortstops Trevor Story and Carlos Correa. Of the two, Correa appears to be the big draw.

"When free agency resumes, Story won't be the best shortstop available. That distinction goes to Correa, a 27-year-old All-Star and Gold Glover who'll be looking to top Seager's 10-year, $325 million haul," John Tomase of NBC Sports Boston wrote.

The Houston Astros made a five-year, $160 million offer to Correa before the lockout, according to Mark Berman of KRIV Fox 26, However, that offer pales in comparison to the 10-year, $325 million agreement Corey Seager reached with the Texas Rangers.

According to Olney, though, Correa has his own 10-year offer on the table. Per Olney, the Detroit Tigers made Correa a 10-year, $275 million offer before the work stoppage. Obviously, that's lower than Seager's deal, but it's a heck of a lot for a player with injury concerns.

Correa has been dealing with a lower-back injury, and some franchises have been in the dark about its specifics.

"What teams are being told was, is that they could only access that information if they made a significant offer," Olney told ESPN 97.5 in Houston.

It's unclear if Detroit was one of the teams to gain medical access, but the Tigers ultimately signed shortstop Javier Baez, not Correa.

There's a fair chance that Detroit's offer is the best Correa is going to receive this offseason. Therefore, a shorter deal that allows him to alleviate health concerns could be a prudent move.

"It's possible that he and the Astros could explore a shorter-term deal with a higher average annual salary—say for $35 million a year—with an opt-out after two years," Olney wrote.

Correa would only be 29 in two years and still likely to command a strong free-agent market. The question is whether he's willing to bet on himself for the next couple of seasons or is adamant about cashing in now.

The Detroit Tigers offered star shortstop Carlos Correa a 10-year, $275 million contract this offseason, according to ESPN's Buster Olney. 

However, it's unclear if the offer is still on the table as the Tigers have already signed Javier Baez (six years, $140 million) and Eduardo Rodriguez (five years, $77 million) this winter. 

Correa had been heavily linked to the Tigers due to his relationship with former Astros manager A.J. Hinch, who managed him for his first five seasons (2015 to '19).

It's important to note the deal Detroit offered Correa is $66 million less than what Francisco Lindor (10 years, $341 million) received from the New York Mets and $50 million less than what Corey Seager (10 years, $325 million) received from the Texas Rangers. 

Considering those numbers, it's reasonable to believe Correa is looking for more than $275 million on his next deal. 

In addition to the Tigers, Correa has been linked to several teams this winter, including the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox. Astros fans are holding onto hope that the team will re-sign him as well.

However, Houston reportedly offered Correa five years and $160 million before free agency. Olney reports that Astros owner Jim Crane has told his colleagues he won’t make the star shortstop an offer of more than six years, which reinforces the thoughts that Correa will sign elsewhere when the lockout ends. 

Correa is certainly deserving of a major contract. The 27-year-old had one of the best seasons of his career in 2021, slashing .279/.366/.485 with 26 home runs and 92 RBI. He also received his first Gold Glove award last season, further highlighting his success both at the plate and in the field.