Carlos Correa

Though the Houston Astros tried to extend star shortstop Carlos Correa during spring training, their best offer only got as good as six years and $125 million. By rejecting it, Correa effectively chose to bet on himself to have a huge walk year ahead of free agency.

So far, so very good.

Through 58 games, Correa is hitting a sturdy .290/.375/.500 with 11 home runs. Baseball Reference puts his wins above replacement at 2.8, which is fourth among American League position players and second to Fernando Tatis Jr. among shortstops.

At this rate, Correa would be worth well more than $125 million even as he shares the upcoming free-agent market with fellow 20-something star shortstops Trevor Story, Corey Seager and Javier Baez. He might even have it in mind to rise to the same $340 million stratosphere that Tatis (here) and Francisco Lindor (here) reached this spring. 

Correa was actually one of the first people to speak to Lindor after he agreed to his 10-year, $341 million deal with the New York Mets. Understandably, the whole thing had him excited.

“I love it,” Correa said. “It’s a great contract. He deserves every penny of it. I congratulated him. He pushed the market for every shortstop coming after him, and it’s always great to see a great player get rewarded like that.”

It perhaps bodes well for Correa that, just as Lindor was when he signed on the dotted line, he'll be coming off his age-26 season this winter. And at least for now, it's hard to argue that Correa is any less deserving of a mega-deal.

Carlos Correa's Resume

• 26 years old
• No. 1 overall pick in 2012
• MLB debut on June 8, 2015
• American League Rookie of the Year for 2015
• All-Star and World Series champion in 2017
• Career stats: 662 G, 2,839 PA, 118 HR, 33 SB, .277 AVG, .355 OBP, .482 SLG, 128 OPS+, 29.6 rWAR

How Correa Went from Cold to Hot

Coming into 2021, the story of Correa's major league journey was a tale of two careers.

In the beginning, he was an obvious superstar by way of a 137 OPS+ and shortstop-high 18.5 rWAR over 361 games between 2015 and 2017. But between 2018 and 2020, the "superstar" label didn't fit him quite as well as he mustered a 111 OPS+ and 8.4 rWAR in 243 games.

Specifically including back problems that cost him games in 2018 and 2019 and a broken rib that cost him additional time in the latter, injuries didn't help Correa's cause in the latter trio of seasons. He was otherwise just inconsistent offensively.

So it went in the early weeks of this season, but not so much lately:

• Through May 11: .239/.290/.403, 5 HR
• Since May 12: .367/.486/.644, 6 HR

If the question is what changed for the Puerto Rico native, there's actually a specific answer relating to his hitting mechanics. At the behest of hitting coaches Alex Cintron and Troy Snitker, he's done away with his leg kick in favor of a "gather step."

As Correa explained: "I’ve been stepping before lifting the leg, and it’s keeping me a lot shorter, giving me more time to see the ball and drive it. From the moment I did it, it started paying off. I’ve been doing it since then.”

You can see the difference when comparing this home run against the Los Angeles Angels from April 6:

To this one against the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday:

It's subtle, but Correa now has a slight toe tap before he goes into his leg kick, which itself is also less exaggerated. Such a change wouldn't necessarily work for other hitters, but it's clearly working for him.

Even beyond his surface-level results, there's how Correa's walk-to-strikeout ratio has improved from 0.35 through May 11 to 1.50 since May 12. His hard-hit rate has also improved from 43.1 to 47.4 percent.

Per his 142 OPS+, Correa is ultimately having a better offensive season than all but three other shortstops. And in spite of the bumps he hit between 2018 and 2020, his 128 OPS+ since 2015 is tied for the best among players with 500 or more games at shortstop.

Let's Also Not Forget About Correa's Defense

After the Astros drafted Correa back in 2012, Baseball America's report on him mentioned there was "some concern he'll outgrow shortstop as he matures physically."

Because Correa had yet to fill out his 6'4" frame, that seemed fair enough at the time. And while he initially rated well by defensive runs saved in 2015 and 2016, he was in the red for ultimate zone rating and outs above average.

But instead of moving Correa to third base, where his size and arm strength would have been a natural fit, the Astros made it a priority to improve his defense at short during spring training for the 2018 season. In particular, they wanted him to be quicker at the crack of the bat.

Three-plus seasons later, those efforts are still paying off.

Though UZR remains relatively skeptical of Correa's glovework, since 2018 he's tied for third in DRS and fourth in OAA among shortstops. Apropos of first-step quickness, the latter specifically points to how much better Correa has gotten at coming in on the ball.

So good was Correa on defense in 2020 that he was named as a finalist for what would have been his first Gold Glove. Because he's once again among the top shortstops for both DRS and OAA, he's bound to be in that conversation again come the end of 2021.

Could Anything Hurt Correa in Free Agency?

All told, Correa is positioning himself to enter the open market with credentials as both an outstanding offensive and defensive shortstop. Between that and the established market for young star shortstops, he's going to be a shoo-in for a $340 million mega-deal, right?

It's certainly possible, yet the potential pitfalls ahead of Correa aren't invisible.

For starters, him maintaining his current offensive performance will require a level of consistency that he simply hasn't had in recent seasons. Even now, the glass-half-empty perspective of his 2021 output is that he was bad for longer (34 games) than he's been good (24 games).

If Correa does regress down the stretch, the 155 OPS+ that he had in 2017 will keep its place as his offensive peak. That's not the best look, given that 2017 was also the year in which the Astros carried out their infamous sign-stealing scheme. And according to numbers compiled by Astros fan Tony Adams, Correa wasn't an innocent bystander in all that.

If these things don't keep Correa from a $340 million contract, things that could include his history with injuries and inconsistency. Even assuming that MLB and the MLB Players Association circumvent a work stoppage with a new collective bargaining agreement, the law of supply and demand could also bite Correa. As in, this winter might contain more young shortstops looking for big bucks than teams willing to spend big bucks on a young shortstop.

There is, however, no denying that Correa's stock is in better shape than that of his presumed competition on the winter market. Story (elbow) and Seager (hand) are on the injured list, while Baez has a league-high-tying 80 strikeouts and a .276 OBP. 

Plus, it's likely that teams will be more willing to spend money this winter than they were during the 2020-21 offseason after losing billions amid the league's shortened and fan-less 2020 season. Things are already getting back to normal now, and there's seemingly little reason to expect that things won't be all the way back to normal come 2022.

So if any of this winter's top free-agent shortstops is going to join Tatis and Lindor in the $300 Million Club, chances are it will be Correa. He'll just need to remain healthy and productive through the end of the season, and then wait for the calls to start coming in.

Houston Astros manager Dusty Baker said the New York crowd's constant heckling may have played a role in Jose Altuve's hitless performance in Tuesday's 7-3 loss to the Yankees.

"The fans were extremely hard on Altuve tonight," Baker told reporters. "He's exerting a lot of effort, maybe too much effort."

Tuesday marked the Astros' first game in Yankee Stadium with fans since they were punished for their sign-stealing scandal in January 2020. Baker, who's been an MLB player or coach since 1968, was happy the jeers didn't turn into anything more serious.

"At least there wasn't any violence. They can say whatever they want," he said. "It sounded like a packed house tonight even though it wasn't. We expected that reception, so we'll get more of the same tomorrow and the next day."

Altuve, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa, all three of whom were part of Houston's 2017 championship team that used video to steal signs and then relayed the information to hitters via the use of loud banging noises, were the main focus of the Yankees fans.

(Warning: Video contains NSFW language.)

The Astros eliminated the Yanks in the 2017 American League Championship Series before beating the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series to capture the franchise's first title.

Although general manager Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were both suspended for the 2020 season as a result of the scandal and were ultimately fired by the organization, no players involved in the scheme faced any punishment from MLB.

Yankees slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who hit a home run in Tuesday's win, was surprised at how hard the fans brought it during the series opener.

"That was intense," Stanton said. "I wouldn't want to be on the other side of that. They brought some heavy."

Manager Aaron Boone added: "The energy that was created, we haven't seen that since 2019, so it was a fun game to be a part of."

The Yankees and Astros, who are both contenders in the AL once again, continue their series Wednesday and Thursday.

New York Yankees fans weren't about to miss their chance to heckle the Houston Astros prior to Tuesday's game.

After all, it was Houston's first trip to the Bronx with fans in attendance since news of its sign-stealing scandal broke, and Yankees fans chanted "you're a cheater" at Carlos Correa during batting practice:

Major League Baseball fined the Astros $5 million, stripped them of their first- and second-round draft picks in 2020 and 2021, and suspended general manager Jeff Luhnow and manager AJ Hinch for one year after it was discovered the team implemented a sign-stealing system during its championship run in 2017.

Houston ultimately fired Hinch and Luhnow.

Yankees fans in particular likely have strong feelings about the scandal seeing how Houston stunned their team in a seven-game battle in the 2017 American League Championship Series. 

They certainly let Correa know how they feel.

The Houston Astros haven't ruled out re-signing Carlos Correa after failing to work out an extension with the 2017 All-Star before Opening Day.

"We respect Carlos," Astros owner Jim Crane said to Mark Berman of Fox 26 in Houston. "He’s been a great asset, a great spokesman for the team. He’s gonna test the market, and we’re fine with that. We’re still interested. … The door’s always open here."

Correa confirmed he had turned down offers of six years for $120 million and five years for $125 million, telling reporters on April 1 that he and the team "were not close at all."

"There were not really any negotiations," he said. "It's another year with the Houston Astros. I'm going to go out there, give it my best and try to bring another championship to this city."

Those comments came mere hours before ESPN's Jeff Passan reported the New York Mets and Francisco Lindor agreed to a 10-year, $341 million extension. That Houston's best offer was so far below that doesn't bode well for the likelihood of Correa re-signing in the offseason.

Nobody can accuse the Astros of being cheap. Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, they've had a 10-top Opening Day payroll for four straight seasons, sitting fifth to get the 2021 campaign underway.

Going above and beyond on new contracts isn't something the franchise has done with great regularity, though.

Houston didn't seem to make much of a push to keep Gerrit Cole, who got a record-setting nine-year, $324 million contract from the New York Yankees. George Springer just bolted, too, after having signed a six-year, $150 million pact with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Jose Altuve penned a seven-year, $163.5 million extension with Houston ahead of the 2018 season, but Correa's next deal is likely to far surpass that given what Lindor received.

Of course the Astros would like to keep the 26-year-old beyond 2021, but that's not the same thing as being willing to pay his market value in free agency.

Houston Astros shortstop Carlos Correa told reporters that long-term contract talks with the team "didn't get close at all," per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.

Correa and the Astros agreed to a one-year, $11.7 million contract that led to the two sides avoiding arbitration for this year. However, Correa will no longer be under team control after this season, allowing him to enter free agency for the first time in his career.

The Astros reportedly offered Correa a six-year, $120 million contract in March, per Jon Heyman of WFAN Sports Radio and MLB Network, but the 26-year-old turned the deal down.

Correa has been a core member of the Astros' resurgence ever since the team broke the franchise down and built it back up in the early 2010s. The No. 1 overall draft pick in 2012 won the 2015 American League Rookie of the Year and also made the 2017 All-Star Game.

During the latter year, the Astros won their first and only World Series title. Correa hit a career-high .315 with a .941 OPS that season. He also hit five playoff home runs.

Injuries have prevented Correa from reaching his true potential in the bigs. The Puerto Rico native sat 192 games from the 2017-19 seasons, but he did play 58 of a possible 60 games last year.

Correa hit .264 with five home runs and 25 RBI during the pandemic-shortened season but dominated in the playoffs once again, hitting six homers in three rounds.

Contract extension negotiations between the Houston Astros and Carlos Correa have gotten off to a considerably poor start as far as the franchise shortstop is concerned. 

Speaking to reporters on Thursday from spring training, the former Rookie of the Year and 2017 All-Star said the team's initial six-year, $120 million offer was well below the value of his play—and he's unsure if Houston is willing to discuss the type of deal he's looking for. 

"The way things are looking, I don't know right now," Correa said. "The first offer, I thought it was really low."

The shortstop noted the offer came through a few weeks ago and the two sides haven't spoken about a new deal since.

Correa will play out the season on a one-year, $11.7 million deal before becoming an unrestricted free agent. He told reporters he's preparing for the 2021 campaign as though it'll be his last in Houston based on the way extension talks have gone. 

"I understand the business and I know how it goes." Correa said. "If they don't see me here long term, then another team will."

Based on the terms offered, Correa would be looking at an average annual salary of $20 million, and while it's unclear what the veteran is seeking, Spotrac pegs his market value at $17.7 million per year. That could make sense given the loaded shortstop free-agent class next year. 

Aside from Correa, Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Jose Iglesias and Marcus Semien are all scheduled to reach free agency. Currently only Lindor ($22.3 million) earns more than $20 million per season. 

The 26-year-old slashed .264/.326/.383 with five home runs and 25 RBI over 58 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season after suiting up for just 75 games in 2019 due mostly to a rib fracture suffered while receiving a message in his home.

His best season to date came in 2017 when he slashed .315/.391/.550 with 24 home runs in 109 games during a year now tainted by Houston's sign-stealing scandal. If Correa can come close to those numbers in 2021, he shouldn't have a problem receiving the type of money he's seeking. 

But at this point, it's on him to prove he's worth the financial commitment after a few down years in a still young career.