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B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Conference Championships

Dec 1, 2022
ATHENS, GA - NOVEMBER 26: Stetson Bennett #13 of the Georgia Bulldogs scrambles in the first half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Sanford Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATHENS, GA - NOVEMBER 26: Stetson Bennett #13 of the Georgia Bulldogs scrambles in the first half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Sanford Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

No matter how many years we do this, the end of the college football season doesn’t get any easier. It comes quickly, and you can never quite brace for it.

Although we still have much work to do before we hit the dreaded offseason, conference championship weekend is upon us.

When it comes to Locks of the Week, our weekly CFB picks against the spread, the task of picking winners becomes more daunting. We have fewer options, although make no mistake about it: We will make the most out of what we have.

Last weekend, we delivered another winning week. A solid 6-3 showing brought us to 69-49-4 for the season. We have momentum again, and it’s coming at the opportune time. (Oh, and you better believe we’ll be making picks throughout the entire bowl season and the College Football Playoff.)

Before we get to this week’s picks, we must first explore what went right and wrong about last week.

The Good: Oregon State (+3) vs. Oregon: It didn’t look good deep in the third quarter. The Beavers were down 31-10, and the game felt like it was slipping away. Then, Oregon State mounted a massive comeback and ultimately won the game outright. Wonderful game and win.

The Bad: LSU (-10) vs. Texas A&M: Well, I can only blame myself. The point spread felt too good to be true, and it ultimately was. I took the obvious play, and I paid the price dearly for it. LSU delivered a dreadful performance, and this pick was dead from the jump.

With that, here are the conference championship weekend picks.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.


TCU vs. Kansas State (Over 61.5)

FORT WORTH, TX - NOVEMBER 26: TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) takes the snap from center during the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Iowa State Cyclones on November 26, 2022 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
FORT WORTH, TX - NOVEMBER 26: TCU Horned Frogs quarterback Max Duggan (15) takes the snap from center during the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the Iowa State Cyclones on November 26, 2022 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Against Iowa State last week, the Horned Frogs scored 62 points by themselves. That is not to say they'll do so again in the Big 12 Championship Game, although points will be plentiful.

When these two teams met during the regular season, they totaled 66 points. They did so even though Kansas State scored zero points in the final 30 minutes of that game.

That likely won’t be the case this week, as both teams enter this one blazing hot. TCU has yet to lose a game this season. With a win here, the Horned Frogs will be playoff bound. (Heck, the same could be true even with a close loss.)

Meanwhile, Kansas State has covered the spread in each of its last three games. More notably, the Wildcats have hit the over in four of their past six.

This feels like a game that will be competitive until the very end. There will be lots of touchdowns, and Kansas State will likely push for the upset.

Regardless of where they come from, bring on the touchdowns.


Georgia (-17.5) vs. LSU

ATHENS, GA - NOVEMBER 26: Head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs reacts in the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Sanford Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATHENS, GA - NOVEMBER 26: Head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs reacts in the second half against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Sanford Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

The Bulldogs don’t need to win this game. Let’s begin there.

No matter the outcome, Georgia should be in the College Football Playoff. If that situation sounds familiar, it should. The Bulldogs were in this exact situation last year against Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and they promptly lost to Bryce Young. (They also proceeded to win a national championship.)

We can question Georgia’s motivation in this game if we want. It’s fair and reasonable to do so. But it’s also unfair to compare this LSU team to Alabama last year. For starters, it doesn’t have Young, who was magical.

Simply put, Georgia is better in so many places. And as we assess LSU’s loss to Texas A&M last week, we must also come to terms with the reality that we (and the committee) might have overrated the Tigers throughout the year.

LSU is solid, and Brian Kelly has done a wonderful job. But Georgia, motivated or not, will show it’s that much better than the Tigers.


Clemson (-7.5) vs. North Carolina

CLEMSON, SOUTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 26: Adam Randall #8 of the Clemson Tigers stands on the field during warm ups before their game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Memorial Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Clemson, South Carolina. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)
CLEMSON, SOUTH CAROLINA - NOVEMBER 26: Adam Randall #8 of the Clemson Tigers stands on the field during warm ups before their game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Memorial Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Clemson, South Carolina. (Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images)

Although the winner of this matchup will be the ACC champion, the game itself has lost some juice. No playoff team will emerge from the ACC Championship Game, regardless of the result. Still, Clemson is in a solid position to recover.

The Tigers are coming off a 31-30 loss to South Carolina, a game in which they were favored by 14.5 points to win. North Carolina, meanwhile, has lost two consecutive games. They were favored by a combined 28 points in those games.

Sure, UNC quarterback Drake Maye should find success against a Clemson secondary that has struggled. On the flip side, Tigers quarterback DJ Uiagalelei is coming off an ugly performance.

But the talent on the Clemson sideline is in a position to overwhelm North Carolina in so many positions. That should ultimately be the difference.

It won’t be pretty, and it probably won’t be easy on the eyes. But it will be effective.


Michigan vs. Purdue (Under 52)

PISCATAWAY, NJ - NOVEMBER 05: Head coach Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines before a game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PISCATAWAY, NJ - NOVEMBER 05: Head coach Jim Harbaugh of the Michigan Wolverines before a game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SHI Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Piscataway, New Jersey. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)

Like the SEC Championship Game, it’s reasonable to question just how motivated Michigan will be in the Big Ten title game coming off its emphatic win over rival Ohio State.

Like Georgia, Michigan should be in the playoff regardless. Even a loss to Purdue won’t change that. Rather than tackle motivation, however, I am tackling intent. Well, and maybe a smidge of motivation.

After last week, Michigan is ready for the playoff. As such, I don’t expect we will see an elaborate passing attack, which there were glimpses of last week. I also don’t expect to see wideouts (or running backs) running freely through the open field like we saw on Saturday.

Seriously, Ohio State. Woof.

Instead, we’ll see ball control from Michigan. We’ll also see the Wolverines’ defense, which played a superb game last week, deliver a worthy encore.

This isn’t a huge number. It feels about right. Michigan will win by double digits and flirt with a cover, although the total will be safe.

Michigan 31, Purdue 17.


Tulane (-3.5) vs. UCF

CINCINNATI, OH - NOVEMBER 25: Tulane Green Wave wide receiver Duece Watts (2) and cornerback DJ Douglas (12) celebrate after defeating the Cincinnati Bearcats during a college football game on November 25, 2022 at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OH - NOVEMBER 25: Tulane Green Wave wide receiver Duece Watts (2) and cornerback DJ Douglas (12) celebrate after defeating the Cincinnati Bearcats during a college football game on November 25, 2022 at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Do not sleep on this glorious football game.

The American Athletic Conference Championship Game will deliver us one team that will play in a marquee bowl. That team will ultimately be Tulane.

These two teams met earlier this year, and Central Florida won as a small underdog. Since then, UCF has looked a bit wobbly. The Golden Knights lost to Navy as a big favorite and then flirted with a loss against South Florida as an even bigger favorite.

While they did win at Tulane—and they’ll be playing on the road again—this does not look and feel like the same team. Tulane, meanwhile, has won and covered the spread in both of its games since that point.

The Green Wave enter with a sparkling 10-2 mark against the spread this fall. While it won’t be easy, Tulane will add to that total with a conference championship victory.


Other Games On the Card

ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO - OCTOBER 22:  Quarterback Logan Fife #10 of the Fresno State Bulldogs passes against the New Mexico Lobos during the first half of their game at University Stadium on October 22, 2022 in Albuquerque, New Mexico.  (Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images)
ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO - OCTOBER 22: Quarterback Logan Fife #10 of the Fresno State Bulldogs passes against the New Mexico Lobos during the first half of their game at University Stadium on October 22, 2022 in Albuquerque, New Mexico. (Photo by Sam Wasson/Getty Images)

Fresno State (+3) vs. Boise State

The Bulldogs are one of the hottest teams in college football, and that hot streak will continue through the Mountain West Championship. Quarterback Jake Haener is healthy, playing well and ready to lead Fresno State to a mild upset.

UTSA (-9) vs. North Texas

On the topic of hot teams, enter UTSA. The Roadrunners have won nine consecutive games, and they have the offense to push North Texas in the Conference USA Championship Game. The point spread is robust, although that’s for good reason.

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Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.

B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 12

Nov 17, 2022
NORMAN, OK - NOVEMBER 5: Wide receiver Drake Stoops #12 of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates a nine-yard touchdown catch against the Baylor Bears in the third quarter at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Norman, Oklahoma. Baylor won 38-35. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)
NORMAN, OK - NOVEMBER 5: Wide receiver Drake Stoops #12 of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates a nine-yard touchdown catch against the Baylor Bears in the third quarter at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Norman, Oklahoma. Baylor won 38-35. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

When Thanksgiving rolls around, the end of the college football season comes into focus.

Conference championship games are now just weeks away, and the College Football Playoff will be decided in short order.

Enjoy it. All of it.

That message cannot be relayed enough in the weeks ahead. Cherish each and every game—and betting opportunity—because they are dwindling.

As for our CFB picks against the spread, well, we hit a speed bump last week. While we’ve been on fire in recent weeks, our Week 11 performance was not one to remember. For the year, however, we’re still a solid 60-41-4.

This week, we’re getting back on track. Before we do, however, here’s what went right and wrong with the previous picks.

The Good: Oregon State (-14) vs. Cal

The Beavers have been good to us this year, and they were once again. Taking on a feisty Cal team, Oregon State cruised to a 38-10 win. On a Saturday that had very few sure things, this was an exception.

The Bad: Baylor (-3) vs. Kansas State

Dreadful. Not much else to say. Baylor was crushed by Kansas State at home. The oddsmakers took a bath on this one, and so did I. It was so bad that I’ve decided to give Baylor another shot. More on that in a moment.

Here are this week’s picks.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.

Baylor (+2.5) vs. TCU

WACO, TX -NOVEMBER 12: Blake Shapen #12 of the Baylor Bears throws under pressure from Felix Anudike-Uzomah #91 of the Kansas State Wildcats in the first half of the game at McLane Stadium on November 12, 2022 in Waco, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
WACO, TX -NOVEMBER 12: Blake Shapen #12 of the Baylor Bears throws under pressure from Felix Anudike-Uzomah #91 of the Kansas State Wildcats in the first half of the game at McLane Stadium on November 12, 2022 in Waco, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

This could be a very bad idea. Let’s get that disclaimer out of the way right now.

I faded TCU last week, and it did not go well. In fact, fading TCU this year has been a not-so-sound strategy. The Horned Frogs have lost only once against the spread all season.

So, why do this?

For starters, the public is going to be all over TCU this week. Coming off a win against Texas, there's now a real chance that the Horned Frogs could make the playoff. The average gambler is going to look at this line and think to themselves “FREE MONEY.”

Heck, they might not be wrong. Although let's hope they are.

The other piece of this equation is the performance Baylor delivered last week. The Bears lost to Kansas State 31-3 at home, never putting up much of a fight. It was a lackluster performance, which we stated above.

Still, Baylor is much better than advertised. And while TCU deserves credit for overcoming Texas, the offensive line in that game was nothing short of a mess. Having to travel for a second consecutive week could present an interesting challenge.

This one pains me. I would very much like to see TCU make the playoff, but I can’t shy away from one of the more fascinating spreads we will see all year.


Arizona State (+8) vs. Oregon State

PULLMAN, WA - NOVEMBER 12: Arizona State Sun Devils defensive lineman Blazen Lono-Wong (97) during warmups before the game between the Washington State Cougars and the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday, November 12, 2022 at Martin Stadium in Pullman, WA. (Photo by Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PULLMAN, WA - NOVEMBER 12: Arizona State Sun Devils defensive lineman Blazen Lono-Wong (97) during warmups before the game between the Washington State Cougars and the Arizona State Sun Devils on Saturday, November 12, 2022 at Martin Stadium in Pullman, WA. (Photo by Oliver McKenna/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Speaking of fascinating point spreads, here’s another.

The Beavers were one of the few teams that won us money last week, which we appreciate. At the same time, this feels like a delicate road game at just the right time.

Arizona State has had a peculiar season. At 3-7, there has been much more bad than good. But one of those three wins came against Washington at home. Given the Huskies’ win against Oregon this past weekend, that result has aged quite nicely.

The Sun Devils’ schedule has certainly been a challenge, and it doesn’t get much easier this week. Oregon State has been solid at 7-3, although the Beavers have yet to beat a top-tier team. (They were close against USC back in Week 4.)

However, timing is everything. With a matchup against Oregon looming, this feels like a potential lookahead game for Oregon State.

Although the Beavers will find a way to win, the ultimate result could wind up being far closer than expected.


Liberty (-9.5) vs. Virginia Tech

EAST HARTFORD, CT - NOVEMBER 12: Liberty Flames head coach Hugh Freeze leads the team out onto the field prior to the start of the game as the Liberty Flames take on the UConn Huskies on November 12, 2022, at the Rentschler Field in East Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
EAST HARTFORD, CT - NOVEMBER 12: Liberty Flames head coach Hugh Freeze leads the team out onto the field prior to the start of the game as the Liberty Flames take on the UConn Huskies on November 12, 2022, at the Rentschler Field in East Hartford, Connecticut. (Photo by Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Last week was not kind to Liberty. Coming off a win over Arkansas, Hugh Freeze’s team responded with an outright loss to UConn as roughly a two-touchdown favorite.

Also, shoutout to Jim Mora Jr. and those Huskies.

For the Flames, this was a setback. They won six straight heading into that matchup, although it was not to be. A week later, and I expect things to get fully on track.

It is odd seeing Virginia Tech as a double-digit underdog in a game like this, although it isn't wrong. The Hokies have lost seven games in a row, and they haven’t exactly played a gauntlet of unbeatable teams. A program that was so incredibly stable for so long has fallen on hard times, and it will show here.

Granted, it's a lot of points to lay against an ACC team. Many will see it as too much.

But with the Arkansas win and the UConn letdown in the rearview, Liberty gets back on track with a massive win.


SMU (+3.5) vs. Tulane

DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 05: Houston Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune (#3) runs up field during the college football game between the SMU Mustangs and the Houston Cougars on November 05, 2022, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX.  (Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
DALLAS, TX - NOVEMBER 05: Houston Cougars quarterback Clayton Tune (#3) runs up field during the college football game between the SMU Mustangs and the Houston Cougars on November 05, 2022, at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas, TX. (Photo by Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

At the moment, this SMU offense is on fire.

Sure, the Mustangs endured a rough stretch in the heart of the season, but the schedule did them no favors. SMU’s losses this year came against Maryland, TCU, UCF and Cincinnati. Not too shabby.

Entering this week, the Mustangs have won three consecutive games, covering the spread in all three. During that time, they’ve scored 163 points. The 77-point outing against Houston helped boost those numbers.

From a matchup standpoint, all of those points could present an issue for Tulane. The Green Wave were unable to keep pace with UCF last weekend, losing by a touchdown as a short favorite. It wouldn’t shock me to see the same type of game unfold here.

Even coming off a loss, Tulane has lost only twice outright and against the spread this season. It’s been a magical year.

After Thursday night, it will be slightly less magical (although still darned good). SMU covers and pulls the mild upset.


Oklahoma (-7) vs. Oklahoma State

NORMAN, OK - NOVEMBER 05: Oklahoma Sooners QB    Dillon Gabriel (08) during a game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Baylor Bears at Gaylord Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma on November 5, 2022. (Photo by David Stacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NORMAN, OK - NOVEMBER 05: Oklahoma Sooners QB Dillon Gabriel (08) during a game between the Oklahoma Sooners and the Baylor Bears at Gaylord Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma on November 5, 2022. (Photo by David Stacy/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

It’s hard to recall a year when Bedlam, one of the greatest rivalries in college football—albeit one that is historically lopsided—has been as understated as this. It isn't a mystery as to why.

Oklahoma has lost five games, which it doesn't do all that often. Oklahoma State, which began the season with a ton of promise, has dropped two of its last three games. (Still, the Pokes are ranked once again.)

Despite their five losses, the Sooners are still a sizable favorite in this game. While that might seem illogical considering Oklahoma just lost to Baylor and West Virginia in back-to-back weeks, it isn’t scaring me.

Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who wasn’t superb a week ago, should be much better here. And while the Sooners haven't been anywhere close to what we thought they might be, this feels like an opportunity to provide a little joy in an otherwise down year.

Despite last year’s loss, Oklahoma still leads this series 90-19-7. The Sooners add another win to an impressive all-time mark.


Other Games on the Card

CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - NOVEMBER 12: Kedon Slovis #9 of the Pittsburgh Panthers throws a pass in the first half during a game against the Virginia Cavaliers at Scott Stadium on November 12, 2022 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA - NOVEMBER 12: Kedon Slovis #9 of the Pittsburgh Panthers throws a pass in the first half during a game against the Virginia Cavaliers at Scott Stadium on November 12, 2022 in Charlottesville, Virginia. (Photo by Ryan M. Kelly/Getty Images)

Army (-10.5) vs. UConn

We rode the UConn wave last week against Liberty, which was very good to us. This week, we’re backing Army, which is second in the nation in rushing yards. On the other side, the Huskies are allowing 4.2 yards per carry.

Iowa State (-3.5) vs. Texas Tech

Yes, the Cyclones have lost six of their last seven games. However, the fact that the oddsmakers feel strongly about them here is noteworthy. The high temperature on Saturday is forecasted to be 20 degrees, and a team from Texas might not like that.

Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Duke

The Pitt defense has allowed only 16 points in the past two weeks, and it will now head back home for Duke. Pittsburgh is simply more explosive, which will ultimately show here.


Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).

Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.

B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 11

Nov 10, 2022
FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS - NOVEMBER 05: K.J. Jefferson #1 of the Arkansas Razorbacks warms up before a game against the Liberty Flames at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on November 05, 2022 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)
FAYETTEVILLE, ARKANSAS - NOVEMBER 05: K.J. Jefferson #1 of the Arkansas Razorbacks warms up before a game against the Liberty Flames at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on November 05, 2022 in Fayetteville, Arkansas. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Oh, what a glorious sport this is.

On the field, college football is creating magic each and every week. Week 10 was particularly beautiful when you add up the intrigue and significance.

At the betting window, it was magical as well. A strong season stayed strong on Saturday, as our CFB picks against the spread went 7-2. For the year, we are now a lovely 58-36-3.

As always, we do not take greatness for granted. We appreciate the quality weeks, and then we move on. Week 11 is ripe with opportunity.

Before we get to the picks, here is what went right (and wrong) last weekend.


The Good: Notre Dame (+3.5) vs. Clemson

There were a bunch of games that felt right, although this one didn’t have much drama about it. The Irish absolutely dominated at home, and this bet never really felt threatened after Notre Dame scored its first touchdown.

The Bad: Tulsa (+7.5) vs. Tulane

We got cute, and Tulane made us pay. One of the best teams against the spread covered once again. Tulsa stayed in the game throughout, although we were constantly chasing points. It didn’t work out, although it wasn’t too far off.

With that out of the way, time for more winners.

All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.


Texas (-7) vs. TCU

MANHATTAN, KS - NOVEMBER 05: Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (5) is all smiles late in the fourth quarter of a Big 12 college football game between the Texas Longhorns and Kansas State Wildcats on November 5, 2022 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MANHATTAN, KS - NOVEMBER 05: Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (5) is all smiles late in the fourth quarter of a Big 12 college football game between the Texas Longhorns and Kansas State Wildcats on November 5, 2022 at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, KS. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Let’s begin with the obvious. Texas has gotten in the habit of blowing big leads, and TCU has mastered the art of falling behind and then coming back to win. Something has got to give this week, and I believe it will.

The oddsmakers are showing a great deal of faith in Texas, which is likely to generate some strong opinions.

On one hand, TCU is unbeaten and has lost just one game against the spread all season. On the other, it has flirted with disaster the past month, falling behind (but rallying) in four consecutive games.

Texas, meanwhile, has walked its own highwire act. Most recently, the Longhorns beat Kansas State on the road, although the win (and cover) did not come without drama.

Here’s the primary reason why I like Texas: TCU has the nation’s No. 70-ranked rushing defense, allowing nearly four yards per rush. Against running back Bijan Robinson, the best running back in football, that’s a problem.

Texas derails TCU’s unbeaten season, and it does so in a double-digit win.


Arkansas (+3) vs. LSU

AUBURN, ALABAMA - OCTOBER 29: Head coach Sam Pittman of the Arkansas Razorbacks during their game against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on October 29, 2022 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)
AUBURN, ALABAMA - OCTOBER 29: Head coach Sam Pittman of the Arkansas Razorbacks during their game against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium on October 29, 2022 in Auburn, Alabama. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)

Oh, we’re not done with top-10 teams that could be in for a rough weekend.

LSU, fresh off its dramatic, emphatic win over Alabama, is a small favorite over a team that just lost outright to Liberty at home. (Liberty fans, I mean no disrespect. But even you must admit this point spread is pretty wild.)

For starters, the hangover potential for this team is enormous. The Tigers just beat Alabama, something they rarely do, and the celebration could linger well into this week.

Here’s another element to consider. It’s Week 11, and LSU has played two true road games this season. That’s it. The first road game was a near loss at Auburn; the second was a 10-point win over Florida.

The road experience, at least thus far, has been a mixed bag at best.

Arkansas, of course, is not without issues. Losing to Liberty as a double-digit favorite isn’t ideal, although Hugh Freeze’s team has been superb this year.

This week, the Hogs bounce back. This is the Sam Pittman special, and Arkansas, despite a fair number of ups and downs, throws chaos into the conference once more.


Wake Forest (-3.5) vs. North Carolina

RALEIGH, NC - NOVEMBER 05: Sam Hartman #10 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons drops back to pass during the second half of their game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Raleigh, North Carolina. NC State won 30-21. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)
RALEIGH, NC - NOVEMBER 05: Sam Hartman #10 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons drops back to pass during the second half of their game against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Raleigh, North Carolina. NC State won 30-21. (Photo by Lance King/Getty Images)

Do you sense a trend this week? I promise, it’s not intentional. While chaos is something we appreciate and celebrate in these parts, it’s not something we force.

This is a game and line I like a great deal. In fact, I’m kicking myself for not backing Virginia against UNC last week. The Cavaliers were a seven-point underdog, and they nearly upset the Tar Heels.

A week later, and the Demon Deacons are live coming off back-to-back losses on the road. This week, Wake Forest will play in front of the home crowd. When you consider that Wake is 4-1 against the spread at home, it puts the matchup in perspective.

Although I love watching Drake Maye throw footballs for UNC, this will be a fascinating temperature check. To date, North Carolina’s best win is either Duke or Pittsburgh. (That is a polite way of saying I have concerns.)

Wake Forest wins a football game with a basketball score.


Oregon State (-14) vs. Cal

SEATTLE, WA - November 4: Oregon States #6 (RB) Damien Martinez during a college football game between the University of Washington and the Oregon State Beavers on November 4, 2022 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - November 4: Oregon States #6 (RB) Damien Martinez during a college football game between the University of Washington and the Oregon State Beavers on November 4, 2022 at Husky Stadium in Seattle, WA. (Photo by Jesse Beals/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Give Cal credit. The Bears have hung tough against some quality teams.

After nearly upsetting Notre Dame earlier in the year, Cal put a scare into USC on the road last weekend. This outcome came just a few weeks after the Bears were competitive against Washington.

With that out of the way, this will likely be an ugly football game. Oregon State has not lost against the spread at home, and the Beavers seem to thrive when playing in Corvallis.

This week, Oregon State will attempt to bounce back from a close loss to Washington that was played in difficult conditions. This will be a much different challenge against a much different team.

While Cal has played admirably, the weight of five consecutive losses—coupled with back-to-back weeks on the road—finally catches up. The Beavers take down the Bears with ease. Nature in reverse.


Baylor (-3) vs. Kansas State

MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 13: Baylor Bears Heac Coach Dave Aranda on the sidelines during the first half of the college football game between the Baylor Bears and the West Virginia Mountaineers on October 13, 2022, at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, WV. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MORGANTOWN, WV - OCTOBER 13: Baylor Bears Heac Coach Dave Aranda on the sidelines during the first half of the college football game between the Baylor Bears and the West Virginia Mountaineers on October 13, 2022, at Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, WV. (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Somewhat quietly, Baylor has revived a season that was heading in the wrong direction. After three consecutive wins, including a thrilling three-point win at Oklahoma a week ago, the Bears are rolling.

On the other side, Kansas State has now lost two of the last three games. In fairness to the Wildcats, they have been competitive in every game this year.

It feels like, however, that these two teams are heading in different directions. And although K-State is still ranked in the top 15 of the AP Poll, it’s Baylor that is favored to win.

For the Bears, the formula is simple: recreate last week’s game plan.

Baylor ran for 281 yards against Oklahoma, and running back Craig Williams did the heavy lifting. After watching Texas run for 269 yards last week, the strategy to recreate this production should be pretty direct.

Either way, Baylor stays hot with a victory.


Other Games on the Card

Cincinnati (-5.5) vs. East Carolina

I love what the Pirates have done, but this feels like the perfect spot for a Cincinnati team trying to make a statement. The Bearcats beat a very good team by more than a touchdown.


UCLA vs. Arizona (Over 78)

It's a lot points, although I am here for it. We were on the UCLA over last week, and the Bruins cashed in against Arizona State. This week, we're doing the same at a higher number. Final score: UCLA 55, Arizona 31.


UConn (+14.5) vs. Liberty

Is this a tad scary? Absolutely. But UConn is riding a wave right now thanks to Jim Mora Jr., and we're hopping on. Liberty will have a football hangover after last week, and it shows.


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CFB Odds 2022: Over/Under Season Win Totals for All 131 FBS Teams

Jun 4, 2022
PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) drops back to pass during the Rose Bowl game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Utah Utes on January 1, 2022 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) drops back to pass during the Rose Bowl game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Utah Utes on January 1, 2022 at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The over/under regular-season win totals for all 131 Division I-FBS college football teams dropped Saturday, per Collin Sherwin and Nick Simon for DraftKings Nation.

Per DraftKings Sportsbook, Alabama, Clemson, Georgia and Ohio State all lead the way with over/unders of 10.5.

None of those are big surprises. Georgia won last year's national title, and Alabama was the runner-up. Ohio State is still led by Heisman Trophy candidate and quarterback C.J. Stroud and figures to contend for the Big Ten title yet again.

Clemson won 10 games (including playoffs) last season in what was considered a down year for the team. The ACC isn't expected to be a powerhouse conference, so Clemson could very well eclipse its Vegas mark of 10.5 wins.

On the opposite end, a host of teams bring up the rear at 2.5 wins, including UConn, Temple and Vanderbilt.

As far as new faces in new places go, Lincoln Riley's USC Trojans have an over/under total of 9.5 wins. The Trojans are expected to make a big leap under the former Oklahoma coach, who went 55-10 with the Sooners. He'll have some work to do with USC, which went 4-8 last year.

Oklahoma, which is now led by former Clemson defensive coordinator and linebackers coach Brent Venables, also has a 9.5-win total.

Elsewhere, Mario Cristobal's Miami Hurricanes have an 8.5-win total after going 7-5 last year. Cristobal left Oregon for his alma mater in December.

The LSU Tigers are now led by former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly. The sportsbooks don't have particularly high hopes for LSU in Kelly's first year with the team holding a seven-win total after the Tigers went just 6-7 the year before.

Former Fighting Irish defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman took over for Kelly, and the sportsbooks gave his team an 8.5 over/under win total.

Other schools high on the ledger include Boise State and Michigan with 9.5-win totals.

This year's college football season will begin August 27.


For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.

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2021 Heisman Trophy Odds: Ole Miss' Matt Corral Made New Favorite in Latest Lines

Sep 22, 2021
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 06: Mississippi Rebels quarterback Matt Corral (2) runs with the ball during the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game against the Louisville Cardinals on Sept. 6, 2021 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - SEPTEMBER 06: Mississippi Rebels quarterback Matt Corral (2) runs with the ball during the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game against the Louisville Cardinals on Sept. 6, 2021 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler and Alabama's Bryce Young have been pushed aside in favor of Ole Miss star Matt Corral as far as Heisman Trophy bettors are concerned. 

The Rebels' quarterback is now the odds-on favorite to claim college football's top individual honor, with DraftKings Sportsbook listing him at +200 (bet $100 to win $200). Young (+225), Rattler (+1600) and Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder (+1600) have the next-best odds behind him. 

Through his first three games this season, Corral has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 997 yards, nine touchdowns and no picks. He's also rushed for 158 yards on 33 carries with five touchdowns. 

The redshirt junior didn't receive any Heisman votes in 2020 despite passing for 3,337 yards and 29 touchdowns for a 177.6 rating. That might have to do with his 14 interceptions—including six against Arkansas in Week 4—along with Ole Miss finishing 5-5.

Through four games last season, Corral had seven interceptions on his resume. If the same thing happens this year something will have gone terribly wrong. 

The No. 13 Rebels travel to No. 1 Alabama this week with an early opportunity to stun the college football world and solidify Corral as a force under center. The Crimson Tide will have plenty to say about that. 

Nick Saban's program leads the all-time series 52-10-2 with a five-game win streak over its SEC rival. Corral will try to snap that run of success on Saturday.

His Heisman odds will certainly get much better if he's able to do so. 

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College Football Playoff 2021: OSU vs. Alabama Championship Game Odds, Info

Jan 2, 2021
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith holds up his most outstanding offensive player trophy after their 31-14 win against Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith holds up his most outstanding offensive player trophy after their 31-14 win against Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl NCAA college football game in Arlington, Texas, Friday, Jan. 1, 2021. (AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)

For six years, Alabama head coach Nick Saban has probably yearned for an opportunity to meet Ohio State again in the College Football Playoff. Now, he'll have his chance.

The Crimson Tide and Buckeyes are on a collision course for the CFP National Championship Game on Jan. 11 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.

           

When: Monday, Jan. 11, at 8 p.m. ET

Watch: ESPN and ESPN app

Odds: Alabama -6.5 (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

            

This is a rematch of the 2015 Sugar Bowl, when Ohio State upset Alabama en route to becoming the first team to win the College Football Playoff.

That the Buckeyes made the playoff at all was the source of some controversy as the CFP selection committee picked them ahead of a one-loss TCU and Baylor. In what might be a good omen, their inclusion this year was somewhat contentious, too, since they played only six games in the regular season and needed the Big Ten's intervention to qualify for the conference championship.

Ohio State answered its skeptics—with Dabo Swinney among them—Friday night.

https://twitter.com/ReggieBush/status/1345202055409897472

Almost from the outset, a Clemson-Alabama championship battle seemed inevitable. This version of Ohio State will give the Crimson Tide a run for their money.

Alabama took down Notre Dame 31-14 in the Rose Bowl in the first of two CFP Semifinals. The final score is somewhat deceiving because the Fighting Irish's second touchdown came inside the final minute.

The Tide dominated and showcased how quickly their offense can strike. Only one of their five scoring drives took more than three minutes off the clock as they gobbled up yards in big chunks.

Imagine having to draw up a defensive game plan that needs to account for both DeVonta Smith and Najee Harris.

However, Alabama doesn't have the same kind of lights-out defense that has often been a hallmark of the Saban era. Georgia gained 414 yards, which was before the offense started really firing with JT Daniels under center. Kyle Trask went 26-of-40 for 408 yards and three touchdowns in a losing effort in the SEC title game.

Justin Fields looked a bit sluggish in Ohio State's final two games against Michigan State and Northwestern. He was back to his best against Clemson, throwing for six touchdowns.

Fields had a pair of long heaves find the end zone, and those are the kind of plays you need to make in order to topple Alabama.

Fresh off running for 331 yards and two touchdowns against Northwestern, Trey Sermon had another monster game. He carried the ball 31 times for 193 yards and one score.

Ohio State's early underdog status isn't surprising, though.

In retrospect, Clemson's profile might have been somewhat inflated since two of the Tigers' biggest wins (No. 7 Miami on Oct. 10 and No. 2 Notre Dame on Dec. 19) don't look as good with the benefit of hindsight. That's not to downplay Friday's win, but don't let it color your judgment to a significant degree.

And for as good as the Buckeyes offense is, Alabama's might be even better.

Smith is the best individual offensive player in the country and deserves to be bringing the Heisman Trophy to Tuscaloosa. John Metchie III has stepped up nicely for the injured Jaylen Waddle, catching 44 passes for 782 yards and six touchdowns in the regular season. If you gear up too much to stop the pass, then Harris will carve you up on the ground.

No matter what side of the fence you fall on, one thing is looking clear.

The last two CFP championships were pretty one-sided. This year's installment could trend closer toward Alabama and Clemson's back-to-back clashes in 2016 and 2017, which were decided by nine combined points.

           

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Colorado Reaches Historic Agreement to Make PointsBet Official Betting Partner

Sep 8, 2020
Colorado Buffaloes helmets sit in the end zone in the first half of an NCAA college football game Friday, Sept. 1, 2017, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Colorado Buffaloes helmets sit in the end zone in the first half of an NCAA college football game Friday, Sept. 1, 2017, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

The University of Colorado announced Tuesday it has made PointsBet its official betting partner, becoming the first NCAA school to sign an agreement with a sportsbook.

The two sides agreed to a five-year deal, which covers sports betting, fantasy sports, casino games and free-to-play contests. 

"We're thrilled to have PointsBet as a partner and for the benefits this sponsorship will provide for our student-athletes for years to come," CU Athletic Director Rick George said. "We are impressed with their commitment to raising awareness around responsible gaming. And we're particularly excited whenever we can partner with sponsors who call Colorado home."

The partnership will provide financial support for Colorado's new Scripps Leadership and Career Development Program which "helps prepare student-athletes for success beyond their playing days."

"This isn't a deal just to get PR, this is a long-term view for both parties, and both parties had to get very comfortable with one another," CEO of PointsBet's U.S. business Johnny Aitken said, per Eben Novy-Williams of Sportico. "It is centered around education and those career pathways, and being in-state, the trust factor is heightened because we're just miles away, not a plane flight away."

The deal comes after the state of Colorado legalized sports betting in May. The Denver Broncos have also taken advantage with three sponsorship deals with sportsbooks before any other NFL team even had one, per Ryan O'Halloran of the Denver Post.

PointsBet, which is building its North American headquarters in Denver, will have advertising at the Colorado Buffaloes' football stadium and basketball arena, sponsor promotions during games and be featured on radio broadcasts of games.

Sportsbooks Pause Betting on College Football After Big 10, Pac-12 Postponements

Aug 12, 2020
The Big Ten logo is seen on the field before an NCAA college football game between Iowa and Miami of Ohio, Saturday, Aug. 31, 2019, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
The Big Ten logo is seen on the field before an NCAA college football game between Iowa and Miami of Ohio, Saturday, Aug. 31, 2019, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Due to the uncertainty around the 2020 college football season, sportsbooks have stopped taking bets on games for the time being.  

Per ESPN's David Purdum, bookmakers are trying to "determine the best approach to a season in flux" in the wake of the Big Ten and Pac-12 announcing they will be postponing all of their fall sports, including football, until the spring, at the earliest. 

Purdum did note that Caesars Palace's rules "stipulate that bets on the national championship are valid as long as a winner is declared in 2021."

"When weird stuff happens, like all of this, you can't plan for it," Jeff Davis, director of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, told Purdum. "Some of this is going to be handled on a case-by-case situation."

Jeff Stoneback, BetMGM director of trading, told Purdum they will offer refunds to people who bet on teams that don't play: "If you've got LSU and they're declared the winner, you'd get paid. If you have USC, we'll give you a refund."

While there remains a lot to be decided among other conferences, the Big 12 board of directors announced on Wednesday its plan to move forward with a fall sports schedule.

The conference also released a revised football schedule that runs from Sept. 26 through Dec. 5, followed by the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 12 or 19. 

Per ESPN's Andrea Adelson, the SEC and ACC said in separate statements they intend to play a fall football season.  

2020 College Football Odds: Clemson, Ohio State, Alabama Favorites to Win CFP

Jun 8, 2020
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 29: A Clemson Tigers player holds up his helmet before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the College Football Playoff Semifinal Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium on December 29, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - DECEMBER 29: A Clemson Tigers player holds up his helmet before the game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the College Football Playoff Semifinal Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic at AT&T Stadium on December 29, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images)

The LSU Tigers defeated the Clemson Tigers 42-25 in the 2020 College Football Playoff National Championship Game, but Clemson is favored to come out on top in the 2021 title game, according to Caesars Palace's latest odds.

Clemson (+250, bet $100 to win $250) is favored ahead of Ohio State (+300), Alabama (+500) and Georgia (+700). Reigning undefeated champion LSU, who tied an NFL record with 14 players getting drafted in April, has +1800 odds.

While LSU saw Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Joe Burrow go No. 1 overall to the Cincinnati Bengals, Clemson is bringing back Trevor Lawrence. However, Clemson was handed a big blow when wide receiver Justyn Ross was announced last week as out for the season with a congenital spinal issue.

Clemson's loss to LSU marked its first since dropping the 2018 title game 24-6 to Alabama.

The 2020 college football season is scheduled to begin Aug. 29, but the possibility remains for a delayed or shortened season because of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.