American League

The Houston Astros receive their first chance to back up the tag as the American League favorite in Game 1 of the ALDS versus Tampa Bay on Friday. 

Houston has odds of -125 (bet $125 to win $100) to advance out of the American League and are +200 (bet $100 to win $200) to win the World Series, per Caesars. 

The Rays already have one road win from the AL Wild Card Game, but beating Justin Verlander at Minute Maid Park is a much tougher task. 

In his 26th playoff appearance, Verlander will be opposed by Tyler Glasnow, who is making his playoff debut. 

James Paxton and Jose Berrios will toe the rubber for New York and Minnesota, respectively. They face a challenge controlling the opposing lineups, as the Yankees and Twins were the two best home-run hitting teams in the regular season. 

                         

Friday ALDS Schedule

Game 1: No. 5 Tampa Bay at No. 1 Houston (2:05 p.m. ET, FS1) 

Game 1: No. 3 Minnesota at No. 2 New York Yankees (7:07 p.m. ET, MLB Network) 

Games can be live-streamed on Fox Sports Go and MLB.com At Bat app.

                  

Tampa Bay at Houston

The 18th and newest member of the 3,000-strikeout club has a 6-2 mark in the last two postseasons. 

In his last two ALDS Game 1 starts, Verlander conceded four earned runs over 11.1 innings. 

The only time in which he allowed more than three runs in a playoff game for Houston was Game 5 of the ALCS versus Boston, when the Red Sox put up four. 

Against Tampa Bay in 2019, the 36-year-old is 2-0 with two runs allowed in 12.1 innings with 13 strikeouts. Tommy Pham was the only Tampa Bay hitter to record two hits off Verlander, both of which were doubles. 

Pham went 2-of-4 in the AL Wild Card Game, and he could provide the visitors with a spark from the No. 2 hole. Leadoff hitter Yandy Diaz is 2-for-4 in his career versus Verlander, with a double in 2019. 

If the Rays can hit Verlander early, it may open an opportunity for Glasnow to settle into a rhythm against Houston's experienced postseason bats. 

In 12.1 innings since returning from a four-month injury layoff, Glasnow conceded a pair of earned runs on five hits. Those numbers are promising, but they also came against three teams out of playoff contention. 

In their 2018 playoff opener, the Astros put up seven runs and hit four balls over the fence, including one each from Alex Bregman and George Springer. 

The two sluggers combined for 80 home runs and 216 RBI in the regular season, and they are among the most successful playoff hitters in recent memory. 

Bregman has a pair of two-hit games in ALDS Game 1s from 2017 and 2018, while Springer had two hits last season. 

Additionally, Josh Reddick has is 4-of-7 in ALDS openers, and four Houston players reached base twice in each year.  

If the Astros replicate their strong start at the plate, they should hand Verlander enough of a cushion to work with to earn their third straight 1-0 ALDS lead. 

                  

Minnesota at New York

James Paxton could be the perfect hurler to neutralize Minnesota's bats. 

In his last eight appearances, the Yankees' Game 1 starter has given up two home runs: one to Seattle and the other to Texas. 

The southpaw did not let a single ball fly over the fence in his last three home starts, and he held opponents without one in nine of his 15 games on home soil. 

That could present a roadblock to the Minnesota offense that produced a single-season record of 307 home runs. 

The Twins enter Yankee Stadium with 33 runs from their six-game road swing to end the regular season, but earlier in the campaign, they faced some difficulties in the Bronx. 

New York limited Rocco Baldelli's club to 11 runs in a three-game set in May. In their two victories, the Yankees allowed four Twins players to cross home plate. 

In those two games, the Twins were held to a single home run and struck out on 18 occasions. 

Paxton has eight outings with eight strikeouts or better, and in those games, opponents hit five home runs, four of which were by Boston on July 26. 

In contrast, opponents hit 10 home runs off Berrios in August and September. He has given up two or more dingers in four road appearances. 

If the 15-game winner performs at a similar rate Friday, the Yankees could extend Minnesota's playoff losing streak to 14. 

                   

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Baseball Reference.  

After six months of fighting their way into the postseason, the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics will square off in the American League Wild Card Game to keep their hopes of winning a championship alive. 

The Rays earned their first postseason berth since 2013 thanks to a 96-66 record. The win total is tied for the second-most in franchise history and one shy of the most. This is also their second consecutive 90-win campaign. 

The Athletics are in the AL Wild Card Game for the second straight year. They are hoping for better results after losing 7-2 to the New York Yankees in 2018. Manager Bob Melvin led his team to a 46-23 record after the All-Star break, including 18 wins in September. 

 

2019 AL Wild-Card Schedule

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 2

Start Time: 8:09 p.m. ET

Location: RingCentral Coliseum (Oakland, California)

Network: ESPN

      

Pitching Matchup

Charlie Morton (TB) (16-6, 3.05 ERA, 194.2 IP, 240 K's) vs. TBD

      

Prediction

Playing at home has been a huge advantage for the A's this season. They finished the regular season 52-27 in Oakland, their most wins since 2013. 

Key differences between this year's Athletics and the group that was bounced in the Wild Card Game last year is relief pitching and offensive depth. 

The 2018 A's were carried by relievers Blake Treinen and Lou Trivino. That duo combined to allow just 31 earned runs with 182 strikeouts in 154.1 innings. Both players were inconsistent this season before injuries forced them to be shut down in September. 

Making up for their drops in performance, Liam Hendriks emerged as one of the AL's best closers. The 30-year-old right-hander was named to his first All-Star team and finished with a 1.80 ERA and 124 strikeouts in 85 innings. 

General manager Billy Beane patched together a starting rotation by acquiring Homer Bailey at midseason and signing Brett Anderson.

One notable absence for the A's this postseason is Frankie Montas, who is ineligible due to a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. The Dominican Republic native emerged as their ace with a 2.63 ERA and 103 strikeouts in 96 innings. 

Making up for the lack of starting depth is an offense that packs a lot of punch at the top. Mark Canha, Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Ramon Laureano and Matt Chapman all have OPS+ totals above 125, putting them at least 25 percent better than the league average. 

From that group, Laureano is the only who didn't hit at least 25 homers during the regular season. 

The Rays have an excellent way to counter Oakland's power with Charlie Morton. The right-hander turned into one of the best free-agent bargains of 2019 after agreeing to a two-year deal worth $30 million in December. 

Morton finished fourth among AL pitchers with 6.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement and set a career high with 240 strikeouts. The 35-year-old matches up well against the A's best hitters, four of whom bat right-handed. He limited righties to a .562 OPS with just four homers allowed in 351 at-bats. 

Tampa Bay's offense doesn't pack as much pop as the A's, but it isn't lacking for production. Austin Meadows was an All-Star in 2019 and posted a .922 OPS with 33 homers to lead the team. He was one of nine Rays to hit at least 10 homers this season. 

Willy Adames and Ji-Man Choi should present matchup problems for the A's predominantly right-handed pitching staff. Adames has an OPS 250 points higher against righties (.820) than lefties (.568). Choi has a .373 on-base percentage and hit 16 of his 18 homers off right-handed pitchers. 

Playing on the road doesn't seem like it will be an intimidating factor for Tampa Bay. The team's 48-32 record away from Tropicana Field was the second-best in MLB (behind the Minnesota Twins' 55-25 mark). 

Given how evenly matched both teams appear on paper, the Rays get a slight edge because their starting pitcher is better than anyone the A's will be able to throw out in a must-win scenario.

Prediction: Rays 4, A's 2

Ever since the Houston Astros took them down in the 2017 American League Championship Series, the New York Yankees have been looking to close the gap on their new blood rivals. Forget the Boston Red Sox. It's the 'Stros who stand in the way of a pennant and the Bombers' first trip to the World Series in a decade.

Let's be more precise: It's Justin Verlander who the Yankees need to conquer in a Game 1 or a Game 7 setting. So far, no one on their staff has been able to outperform this ageless velocity machine, a fact that continues to haunt the Yankees with the postseason just around the corner.

With no disrespect to the Los Angeles Dodgers—or any other National League team—one Yankees veteran recently said a showdown against the Astros "would be the real World Series."

No translation is necessary here. The feeling in the Bronx is that the American League champ will end up running the table in October. True or not, real or perceived, Verlander's presence hangs over the Yankees like a guillotine.

But two recent developments have bolstered the Yankees' belief that a Verlander killer has finally emerged.

The first is James Paxton's surge since the start of August. He's 8-0 with a 2.57 ERA, averaging almost 11 strikeouts per nine innings. The 6'4" left-hander—nicknamed Big Maple in honor of his Canadian roots and imposing stature on the mound—has so thoroughly dominated hitters lately that one major league executive said, "That's the kind of stuff that you ride [to the World Series]."

Option two is Luis Severino, out all season with shoulder and lat issues but finally ready to take the ball on Tuesday against the Los Angeles Angels. It will be his first appearance since a disastrous showing in last October's division series against the Red Sox, which left the organization with a number of unanswered questions. 

Severino never got a chance to address his second-half regression in 2018 or the nagging belief that he was tipping his pitches. Instead, he experienced pain in his lat early in spring training and was on the injured list before Opening Day.

So far, however, Severino has demonstrated renewed arm strength, not to mention unwavering confidence that whatever went wrong last summer is no longer relevant.

The Yankees have always loved the 25-year-old for that can-do attitude fueled by a 98 mph four-seam fastball. No Yankee starter throws harder than Severino, and he not only dominated but also demoralized hitters on his best days in '18. That's the version the Bombers are expecting to see Tuesday and for the next six weeks.

If so, manager Aaron Boone has a powerful set of choices if and when the Yankees face the Astros. No one in the Bronx has to be reminded of the battle plan: beat Verlander and inflict collateral damage on the rest of Houston's rotation.

Again, this is no slight against Gerrit Cole or Zack Greinke, but it's Verlander who's left his imprint on the Yankees.

He beat Severino in Game 6 of the ALCS in 2017, throwing seven shutout innings en route to the Astros' 7-1 victory that set up their pennant-winner the next night.

The Yankees were just nine innings away from the World Series when they took the field at Minute Maid Park, having swept Houston in the Bronx in Games 3-5. But there was Verlander in Game 6, delivering high-90s heat with that big, old-fashioned delivery—just like he did in Game 2, when he struck out 13 over nine innings of one-run ball.

What stung even more was knowing Verlander could've been a Yankee at the trade deadline that summer. All Hal Steinbrenner had to do was give general manager Brian Cashman the go-ahead to acquire the ace the 2017 squad lacked.

But George Steinbrenner's youngest son runs the Yankees with greater restraint than his father ever did, instructing Cashman to stand down and closing the spigot just as his team was on the verge of a breakthrough.

The Yankees have been paying for Steinbrenner's caution ever since.

Even in the midst of a sterling 2019 season with a projected finish of 106 wins, the Yankees are still in search of a standout at the front of their rotation. When Verlander beat them again in June, this time outpitching J.A. Happ in a 9-4 victory, first baseman Luke Voit could only shake his head and say, "The guy is just incredible."

No American League pitcher keeps opponents to a lower batting average (.166) and permits less traffic on the bases (.077 WHIP). No wonder the Yankees are betting so heavily on Severino and Paxton. They represent the best—and perhaps only—chances to match Verlander with the season on the line.

Of course, Boone isn't anywhere close to deciding who would get the ball first in the division series, let alone the ALCS. The Yankees need to see for themselves that Severino is pain-free, has the stamina to pitch deep into games again and has finally fixed the tip-pitching habits that ruined him in 2018.

But the reports along the Severino injury-rehab trail have been encouraging, similar to their epiphany that Paxton isn't Sonny Gray after all—a nice guy with tremendous stuff who just couldn't pitch in New York.

The Yankees are about to find out if either hurler has what counts most in the Bronx: an October heart to match Verlander's.