Mets vs. Braves: Which Team Is Better Built for a Deep Run in MLB Playoffs?
There's a pretty huge series set to go down over the weekend in Atlanta, where the top two teams in the National League East will meet for one last bout over the division title.
This makes now as good a time as any to look at how Atlanta and the New York Mets are situated not just for this weekend's three-game set, but for the road ahead to what may be a subsequent showdown in the National League Championship Series.
The Mets have the upper hand right now, but barely. With their record at 98-58 and Atlanta's at 97-59, the two teams are separated by just one game in the NL East standings. As both will have just one more series left after this one wraps on Sunday, it's now or never for them to state their cases for the division crown and the perks that come with it.
Regardless, this won't be the last time both clubs have their eyes on the same prize.
Atlanta is looking to win the World Series for the second time in as many years. The Mets are hoping to return to the Fall Classic for the first time since 2015 and, even more hopefully, to snap a championship drought that dates to the days of Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden in 1986.
A Brief Outlook for an Outsized Series
With the Mets having won nine out of 12 and Atlanta having won 10 out of 15, both clubs are coming into this series hot.
Thankfully, it doesn't sound as if the weather is going to cool either of them down. There had been concerns of Hurricane Ian impacting the series, but less so now:
Meanwhile, here are the probable starters for this weekend's action at Truist Park:
- Friday, Sep. 30: RHP Jacob deGrom vs. LHP Max Fried
- Saturday, Oct. 1: RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Kyle Wright
- Sunday, Oct. 2: RHP Chris Bassitt vs. RHP Charlie Morton
With NL Rookie of the Year front-runner Spencer Strider out with oblique soreness, Fried, Wright and Morton are the three best starters Atlanta has right now. A good trio, to be sure, but one neither as decorated nor as hot as deGrom, Scherzer and Bassitt. The first two have five Cy Young Awards between them, and all three have pitched to a combined 2.44 ERA since deGrom made his season debut on Aug. 2.
Despite Starling Marte's absence with a fractured finger, the Mets have also been the better offensive team in September. Even as Atlanta has held strong with a 108 wRC+ and 4.7 runs per game, Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar have led the Mets to a 125 wRC+ and 5.3 runs per game.
So even with home-field advantage for the weekend, Atlanta has its work cut out for it in securing at least a tie for the division lead by winning two out of three. For their part, the Mets can drop their magic number to one with two wins and to zero with a clean sweep.
Of course, what's at stake in this weekend's series is not so much the NL East title as the aforementioned perks: a trip directly to the National League Division Series by way of a bye in the first round of the playoffs, and home-field advantage therewithin.
As the difference is between having to win just seven games as opposed to nine, the shorter road to the World Series is not to be discounted. Extra rest is also never a bad thing, and whichever team gets it will be able to line its pitching up as it wants for the NLDS.
Why Atlanta Is Made to Go Far
Even if Atlanta doesn't pull off an at-the-buzzer comeback to win its fifth straight NL East title, the Mets aren't the only team that's advised not to underestimate the defending champs' chances of going through them on the way back to the World Series.
Of all the reasons, the big one is, well, the big one: This Atlanta offense can score runs the easy way.
Even noting that its 234 home runs are the second-most in MLB after the Aaron Judge-led New York Yankees isn't really giving Atlanta's offense proper credit. It is downright consistent in hitting the long ball, as its 122 games with at least one home run lead MLB.
As Atlanta well knows from last year, hitting the ball over the fence is also a good way to win playoff games in general. Between 2012 and 2021, the team that won the home run battle within a given game also won the game itself 59.3 percent of the time.
Of late, the best sign for Atlanta has been the sudden reemergence of Ronald Acuña Jr. The 2019 NL Rookie of the Year is 10-for-his-last-39 with four homers.
Strider's health permitting, Atlanta could also have four top-of-the-rotation types to throw at the opposition in the postseason. With an MLB-low 1.57 ERA in September, its bullpen is likewise situated to one-up even last year's "Night Shift" crew.
As for the question of whether there's enough playoff experience in Atlanta's dugout, well, there is no question. There are some newcomers and an extraordinary class of rookies, sure, but most of the same guys who were there to win it all in 2021 are still there in 2022.
Why the Mets Are Made to Go Far
Because they've hit 73 fewer home runs—or one 2001 Barry Bonds' worth—than Atlanta, the Mets will be punching above their weight if the next three games and any future head-to-head contests devolve into slugfests.
For that matter, the Mets might not want to count on offense being the thing that gets them through October. Their offense's best asset is its second-ranked .332 on-base percentage, and recent history suggests this asset is due for a decline in October:
It's a good thing, then, the Mets can take comfort in their pitching's propensity for punchouts.
Mets hurlers rank first in MLB with 538 strikeouts since deGrom's return in August. He and Scherzer have 151 of those just between themselves, with closer Edwin Díaz pitching in another 32 over just 18.1 innings.
Though not quite as important as home runs, strikeouts are still another thing that tends to correlate with success in the playoffs. In the last 10 postseasons, teams that won the strikeout battle in a game also won the game 54.8 percent of the time.
Perhaps the best reason to believe in the Mets as a playoff threat, however, lies in how they've already proved themselves against the best of MLB.
Whereas Atlanta is only 33-34 against other winning teams, the Mets are 41-31. That includes a 38-23 performance against the six clubs they could encounter in the NL playoffs: Atlanta and the Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres and St. Louis Cardinals.
Having posted a winning record against other winning teams in the regular season isn't a guarantee of a deep playoff run, but it does help. Of the 44 teams that have played in the World Series since 2000, only 12 made it after posting a losing record against winning teams.
So You're Saying We Can Only Pick One?
As much as we want to, we recognize that it would be an anticlimactic hedge if we were to say that, when it comes to which of them is the better bet for a deep playoff run, there's no wrong answer between the Mets and Atlanta.
If we must pick one, let's just say that FanGraphs' odds of these teams making it to the World Series look about right:
- Mets: 28.2 percent
- Atlanta: 15.9 percent
Atlanta's problem isn't necessarily in its construction. Its mastery of home runs is the real deal, and its pitching is arguably even better than what it had last year.
The odds nonetheless do seem to be against Atlanta, and not just because it is presently at a disadvantage for the NL East crown and the oh-so-valuable first-round bye. It's also just not that often that a World Series winner returns to the Fall Classic the next year. It hasn't been done since the 2008-09 Phillies, who were the first to do it since the 1998-2001 Yankees.
As for the Mets, this weekend's series is a chance to draw what would likely be a viable blueprint for success in October: Let deGrom, Scherzer and Bassitt set the tone, get just enough offense and then turn things over to Díaz.
Simple, perhaps, but it may not be long before there's no doubting its effectiveness.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.
