Football

The Tennessee Titans will turn to rookie quarterback Malik Willis as the starting quarterback for Saturday's matchup with the Houston Texans, per ESPN's Adam Schefter.

Veteran Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out for the game with an ankle injury.

NFL reporter Paul Kuharsky reported Wednesday that Tannehill was likely done for the season, opening up the chance for Willis to make an impression down the stretch.

The 23-year-old has made two starts this season, going 1-1 in those contests. For the year, the third-rounder out of Liberty has thrown for 177 yards and an interception, completing a woeful 44.7 percent of his passes while taking six sacks. He's added 80 rushing yards.

"I think the previous experience helped a lot, as far as just knowing what it takes and knowing what your routine is going to be in order to prepare," Willis told reporters Wednesday. "It's different every week, who we play. But the way you prepare is the same mostly. It's just understanding what it takes and going out there every day. Now I get the reps a little more, and it's just about going out there and getting better."

Malik Willis on being more comfortable in the scheme and keeping a positive mindset. Wise words beyond his years from the #Titans rookie. pic.twitter.com/jrXS3kxIFb

— TURRON DAVENPORT (@TDavenport_NFL) December 21, 2022

It will be a trial by fire for Willis at a crucial juncture in Tennessee's season, with the 7-7 Titans holding onto a tenuous one-game lead in the AFC South over the suddenly hot Jacksonville Jaguars (6-8), winners of four of their last six.

The Titans, meanwhile, have lost four straight.

The Jags won the first matchup between the teams by a 36-22 score, with the division potentially coming down to the final week of the season when the two teams face off in Jacksonville for the second time. The division winner will claim the No. 4 seed in the AFC.

It may be a moot point if the Titans can't get past the Texans and a Week 17 matchup with the Dallas Cowboys. At least this week, Willis finds himself in the spotlight.

The Baltimore Ravens are closely monitoring the health of star quarterback Lamar Jackson, and for good reason. Jackson, who is dealing with a knee injury, has missed Baltimore's last two games. The Ravens are trying to keep pace with the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC North but have gone 1-1 without him, losing to the Cleveland Browns and squeaking by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Jackson's injury could also heavily impact his future in Baltimore, and not for the most obvious of reasons.

First, let's dive into what's immediately ahead and what's at stake.

Baltimore (9-5) sits a game behind Cincinnati in the AFC North, but it holds the first head-to-head tiebreaker. If the Ravens can win out at home against the Atlanta Falcons and Pittsburgh and in Cincinnati in Week 18, they'll claim the AFC North crown and host a playoff game.

It's unknown whether Jackson will make his return in Week 16.

John Harbaugh declined to say whether Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will return this week after missing two games with a knee injury.

Harbaugh said he is going to "climb behind the barricade" of not divulging injury information because of competitive reasons.

— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) December 19, 2022

Could the Ravens get past Atlanta without Jackson? Maybe, but they fell flat with Tyler Huntley under center against Cleveland. Baltimore ran the ball well but couldn't pass when it needed to. Huntley finished just 17-of-30 for 138 yards with an interception.

Unlike the Browns, Atlanta has been respectable against the run, ranking 11th in yards per carry allowed (4.3).

The Ravens cannot afford a slip-up against Atlanta, or any team, if they hope to guarantee themselves a playoff bid. Baltimore cannot clinch a playoff spot in Week 16 with a win alone. Every loss the Ravens accumulate opens the door for another team to push them out of the postseason.

This is exactly how things unfolded in 2021 when Jackson missed the final four weeks with an ankle injury (he missed a fifth during the season with an illness). The two-time Pro Bowler was injured early in Week 14, and Baltimore fell from 8-4 to 8-9 and missed the playoffs.

Things could shape up for an eerily similar run if Jackson cannot return before season's end.

Regardless of how things unfold in 2022, missing extended time late in back-to-back seasons will likely be a factor when the quarterback and the Ravens negotiate his next contract in the offseason.

Jackson is slated to become a free agent in March. According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, he seeks a fully guaranteed contract like the one Deshaun Watson received from the rival Browns.

"Fully guaranteed money is believed to be at the heart of the issue," Rapoport wrote in September. "Jackson is seeking as close to $230 million as possible, choosing to play on the fifth-year option of his rookie contract until he gets his desired deal."

Watson didn't play in 2021 and missed the first 11 games of this season while serving a suspension for violation of the league's personal conduct policy after 25 women filed lawsuits accusing him of sexual assault or misconduct.

Watson and the Browns faced questions about his character and his ability to be an elite franchise quarterback after a lengthy layoff when he got his deal. The only question around Jackson—who was, by the way, the unanimous 2019 MVP—is his durability. And that has only become a concern over the past two years.

Though it's not as if Jackson plays recklessly, his dual-threat play style exposes him to more contact than a traditional pocket passer might face. Some contingent of the Ravens front office might view his injury history as a reason not to guarantee the entirety of his deal.

Franchise owner Steve Bisciotti has gone on record as not being a fan of fully guaranteed deals.

"To me, that's something that is groundbreaking, and it'll make negotiations harder with others," Bisciotti told reporters in March.

In reality, though, Jackson's late-season absences tilt the leverage in his favor.

Baltimore has spent the better part of five seasons crafting an offense to suit Jackson and his unique skill set. The Ravens have eschewed a true No. 1 receiver because Jackson can dissect defenses using star tight end Mark Andrews and a handful of complementary guys. They've built a committee backfield instead of finding an All-Pro ball-carrier because Jackson is a proven 1,000-yard rusher.

J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are fine complementary backs, but neither has proved himself to be (or remained healthy enough to be) a true featured back.

Baltimore traded a Pro Bowl offensive tackle in Orlando Brown because with Jackson's ability to escape, the line doesn't have to be elite at every position.

The problem is that the team Baltimore has constructed doesn't work without Jackson—even if the Ravens want to pretend it can.

"I've got confidence in everybody," head coach John Harbaugh told reporters Monday when asked about the offense's struggles. "We have great coaches and great players at the highest level, battling every single day to get everything as good as it can be."

It won't be as good as it can be with anyone other than Jackson under center. Games without him have proved that. Huntley can escape the pocket, be a dual threat and run Baltimore's offense, but he doesn't see the field as clearly as Jackson.

Take this missed touchdown opportunity against Cleveland as an example:

Mark Andrews hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 6, but there have been opportunities. Snoop missed a shot over the top here in the red zone. pic.twitter.com/syBsUoxXhj

— Ryan Mink (@ryanmink) December 20, 2022

Over the past two weeks, Huntley has gone 25-of-42 for 226 yards and an interception. If the Steelers hadn't lost their starting quarterback, Kenny Pickett, to a concussion in Week 14, Huntley would probably be 0-2 this season. He went 1-3 as a starter in 2021.

It's not as if the Ravens will find a suitable replacement for this offense in free agency either. Impending free agents like Geno Smith, Mike White and Jimmy Garoppolo don't come close to mirroring Jackson's skill set.

Could Baltimore try its luck in the 2023 draft? Sure, a player like Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson might become a franchise quarterback, but it's a crapshoot. Why take such a huge risk at the game's most important position when a 25-year-old franchise quarterback is in the building?

The Ravens shouldn't take that risk, and Jackson knows it. This is why he can essentially tell the Ravens, "Give me the long-term contract I want or have fun trying to rebuild without me."

And the Ravens would have to rebuild a lot to be successful with a different quarterback. It wouldn't be cheap.

Consider the cost of signing a quality dual-threat back like impending free agent Kareem Hunt and acquiring a top-end receiver like, say, DK Metcalf. Hunt has a projected market value of $6.9 million annually. Metcalf just signed an extension worth $24 million annually. Now add in the cost of a quarterback like Smith, who has a projected market value of $36.1 million annually.

That's $67 million in annual salary just to start transitioning to an offense that can be high-level without Jackson.

Or the Ravens can pay Jackson $45 million-plus annually, guarantee his contract and continue to build their offense.

The alternative to paying Jackson what he wants or starting over is using the franchise tag and locking in the Louisville product on a year-to-year basis. That might be viewed as a prudent move, given Jackson's injuries, but it's not cap-friendly.

The 2022 tag value for quarterbacks was $29.7 million. That number will rise significantly in 2023—especially if Jackson is given the exclusive tag—and would carry a minimum 20 percent raise in 2024 if he is tagged a second time.

An exclusive franchise tag for Lamar Jackson in 2023 currently calculates to $45.4M (thanks in large part to Deshaun Watson's $55M cap hit).

A tag in 2024 would then be $54.4M.

2022: $23M
2023: $45.4M
2024: $54.4M
= $122.8M

Russell Wilson just locked in $124M over that span.

— Spotrac (@spotrac) September 6, 2022

Tagging Jackson for the next two years will likely cost Baltimore $100 million in guaranteed money. Giving Watson $230 million guaranteed for an extra three seasons doesn't seem as bad in comparison—especially with quarterback contracts consistently on the rise.

This is assuming Jackson won't refuse to play on the franchise tag, which he easily could. He can point to his injuries, as well as the torn ACL suffered by Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, and decide that it's less of a risk to sit for a year.

Watson got paid after sitting out a season, which leaves Baltimore with little leverage.

What are the Ravens going to do? Tell Jackson they're content to be an also-ran in a division poised to be dominated by Joe Burrow and the Bengals if he doesn't play? Threaten to start over and forge a more traditional offense while hoping for the best?

What the Ravens cannot do is point to their on-field success without Jackson and tell him that they don't need him. That success hasn't come, and they do.

While injuries are unfortunate and Jackson would undoubtedly rather be playing, his recent time off will work in his favor next spring. If Baltimore hopes to have the sustained success it has enjoyed with a healthy Jackson—three playoff appearances in his first three seasons—it'll have to pay the man what he wants.