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Aaron Judge HR Prop Bets See Surge in Betting Interest as Yankees Star Nears Record

Sep 22, 2022
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 21:  Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees rounds first base after he hit a double in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Yankee Stadium on September 21, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 21: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees rounds first base after he hit a double in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Yankee Stadium on September 21, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge is one home run away from tying Roger Maris' all-time American League single-season record of 61 homers, and interest in betting on props has skyrocketed as he approaches the mark.

"Nearly nine times as much money was bet on Judge to hit a home run Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates as was bet on any other player offered at Caesars Sportsbook," per ESPN's David Purdum. "BetMGM reported there were more bets on Judge's home run prop odds than there were on the outcome of the Pirates-Yankees game."

Judge didn't hit a home run to tie Maris' 61-year-old record, but he has +195 odds ($100 bet to win $295) to do so Thursday at Yankee Stadium against the Boston Red Sox, per DraftKings Sportsbook. Right-hander Michael Wacha will get the start against the Bronx Bombers.

According to Purdum, DraftKings' most popular player prop Thursday is Judge hitting a home run, and in comparison to other players, interest in Judge hitting homers is far greater than other league stars.

"In September at sportsbook PointsBet, Judge has attracted over 13 percent of all home run wagers," Purdum wrote. "That's four times as many bets as the second- and third-most wagered players—Paul Goldschmidt and Shohei Ohtani—have attracted combined, according to PointsBet."

Judge has posted 60 home runs, 128 RBI, a .317 batting average and a 1.126 OPS en route to leading the 90-58 Yankees to a 6.5-game lead in the American League East. He has 14 more games to eclipse Maris' record, beginning Thursday with a four-game homestand against the Red Sox.


For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.

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Yankees Fans Caught on Video Dogpiling for Aaron Judge's No. 60 HR Ball in Stands

Sep 21, 2022
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 20:  Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees bats during the 6th inning of the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Yankee Stadium on September 20, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 20: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees bats during the 6th inning of the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Yankee Stadium on September 20, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

New York Yankees fans were fighting for a piece of history Tuesday.

When Aaron Judge launched his 60th home run of the season into the bleachers during the ninth inning of Tuesday's contest against the Pittsburgh Pirates, fans dogpiled on top of each other trying to get the ball:

It was part of an incredible inning for the Yankees, as Judge's solo homer cut the deficit to three before Giancarlo Stanton eventually provided the game-ending fireworks with a walk-off grand slam.

Mike Kessler was the one who emerged with the ball from Judge's homer that tied Babe Ruth for the second-most long balls in a single season for a Yankees player. Kessler told Brian Lewis of the New York Post he gave the ball to Judge in exchange for signed balls, a signed bat, a photograph and a meeting with the slugger.

"It bounced off someone's hand," he said. "I reached and grabbed it and just bear-hugged it. I just smothered it. It got off to the side. It was a mad pile."

Judge tied Babe Ruth and is now one home run behind Roger Maris for the most homers in a single season in Yankees history. He'll look to tie the mark in Wednesday's contest against the Pirates.

Aaron Judge's 60th HR Ball Traded for Meet-and-Greet, 4 Signed Balls, Signed Bat

Sep 21, 2022
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 20:  Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits his 60th home run of the season during the 9th inning of the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Yankee Stadium on September 20, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 20: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits his 60th home run of the season during the 9th inning of the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Yankee Stadium on September 20, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

Michael Kessler, the fan who caught Aaron Judge's 60th home run in the ninth inning of Tuesday's game between the New York Yankees and Pittsburgh Pirates, traded the historic ball for a gift package.

Per MLB.com's Bryan Hoch, Kessler swapped the ball for a meet-and-greet with Judge in the Yankees' clubhouse, four autographed baseballs and a signed bat that wasn't the one used to hit the homer.

"We were standing on top of the bleachers and then went down for his at-bat," Kessler told Hoch about catching the ball. "We were jumping up and down because I knew it was a home run. It hit the top of the bleachers and then bounced toward our section. I just went to grab it and bear hugged it."

Judge became the sixth player in Major League Baseball history to hit at least 60 homers in a season with his solo shot off Pirates reliever Wil Crowe.

Judge is tied with Yankees icon Babe Ruth for the second-most homers in a single season in American League history. His next one will tie Roger Maris for the AL single-season record.

At his current pace, Judge is on track to finish the regular season with 66 homers. If he hits that mark, it would tie Sammy Sosa's 1998 campaign for the third-most in MLB history.

The homer was critical because it helped spark New York's five-run rally vs. the Pirates. Giancarlo Stanton ended the game with a walk-off grand slam to keep the Yankees' lead over the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL East at 5.5 games with 15 left to play.

Judge and the Yankees will host the Pirates on Wednesday at 7:05 p.m. ET.

Yankees' Aaron Judge's Record-Setting HR Balls Expected to Auction for over $1M

Sep 21, 2022
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 18: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a double in the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 18, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 18: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a double in the ninth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 18, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

The fight for Aaron Judge home run balls is about to become its own spectacle with expected auction values set to explode as he chases the American League record and beyond.

SCP Auctions' David Kohler told TMZ Sports on Wednesday he expects the sale price could ultimately reach seven figures as Judge, who hit his 60th homer on Tuesday night, pushes toward history. Here are Kohler's projections for what future longballs by the New York Yankees superstar could fetch if they hit the auction block:

  • No. 61 to tie Roger Maris' AL/Yankees records: $200,000-$250,000
  • No. 62 to break those records: over $500,000
  • Final HR of the season: over $1 million

What's made Judge's home run barrage so impressive is the fact he's done it while leaving everybody else in the dust. Unlike the steroid or juiced-ball eras, where HR tallies jumped across the board, the Yanks outfielder is alone in his record-breaking pursuits.

Behind his 60 dingers, next on the MLB list is the Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Schwarber at 40 and no one else in the AL is higher than the Houston Astros' Yordan Alvarez at 37.

His latest home run on Tuesday night, which sparked a 9-8 comeback win capped by a Giancarlo Stanton walk-off grand slam, tied him with Babe Ruth for eighth on the single-season list.

"When you talk about Ruth and Maris and Mantle and all these Yankees greats, you never imagine as a kid getting mentioned with them," Judge told reporters. "It's an incredible honor and something I don't take lightly at all. We're not done."

Barry Bonds holds the all-time record at 73, which is likely out of reach barring a remarkable run over the final 15 games on the Yankees' regular-season schedule.

Nevertheless, it's been a special season for Judge, who often carried the club on his shoulders while it went through a few offensive lulls, especially coming out of the All-Star break. It's also put him in contention for the AL Triple Crown heading into the final weeks.

The 30-year-old California native said he's not focused on individual accomplishments as the Yankees attempt to lock down the AL East division title, though.

"I haven't really been thinking about numbers or stats and stuff like that," Judge said after Tuesday's comeback win. "I'm going out there trying to help my team win. At the time, it was a solo shot in the ninth, still down by a couple of runs. But this team, we've always had a never-say-die attitude. We fight until the end."

The Yanks close out a two-game series against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday before opening a four-game weekend clash with the rival Boston Red Sox on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.

Expect the ticket prices for those contests to look similar to the Home Run Derby, with more fans wanting to sit in the outfield bleachers than down the lines.

Adam Sandler Shares Heartwarming Message for Yankees' Aaron Judge amid HR Chase

Sep 21, 2022
NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 20: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees looks on prior to the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, September 20, 2022 in New York, New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 20: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees looks on prior to the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, September 20, 2022 in New York, New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge has been garnering a ton of attention lately, as he is on the verge of achieving history.

Actor and longtime Yankees fan Adam Sandler shared a heartfelt message to Judge on social media as the outfielder aims to become the sixth player in MLB history to hit 60 or more home runs in a single season:

With about two weeks left in the regular season, Judge has the chance to break Roger Maris' franchise record of 61 home runs. Entering Tuesday's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Judge leads MLB with 59 homers and 127 RBI. He also has a legitimate shot at achieving the Triple Crown, as he is tied for second in the American League with a .316 batting average.

Judge's historic season could lead to his first career AL MVP award. The 30-year-old is in line for a massive contract this offseason after turning down a long-term extension offer from the Yankees prior to this year.

Gerrit Cole Will Be Yankees' Game 1 Playoff Starter, Aaron Boone Says

Sep 20, 2022
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 13: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees throws against the Boston Red Sox during the fifth inning at Fenway Park on September 13, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS - SEPTEMBER 13: Gerrit Cole #45 of the New York Yankees throws against the Boston Red Sox during the fifth inning at Fenway Park on September 13, 2022 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Gerrit Cole is undoubtedly the ace of the New York Yankees rotation, but there was some speculation about whether he would be the team's Game 1 playoff starter in what has been an inconsistent season for the veteran hurler.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone put the speculation to rest during an appearance on The Show podcast with Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post, declaring the right-hander will be the Game 1 starter:

“Yeah, Cole would be. And we feel great about Nestor obviously too. And hopefully [Luis Severino] getting back here and getting a few starts under his belt here at the back end, put him in that mix too. We’ve got a couple weeks to go there and we’ve got to see how we get there and how we get in. Those things always affect how you line things up. But hopefully we’re in a position to line it up how we want.”

Cole enters Tuesday's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 12-7 record, 3.41 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 236 strikeouts in 182.1 innings across 30 starts. Those are respectable numbers for the five-time All-Star.

However, the 32-year-old has found himself struggling of late. In his last five starts dating back to an Aug. 26 win over the Oakland Athletics, Cole has given up eight home runs, including five over his last two starts alone.

In total, Cole has allowed 29 home runs on the season, and his HR/9 rate is 1.43. The 29 blasts are tied for the second-most in his career, and his HR/9 rate would be the second-worst of his career.

It's certainly not where the Yankees want Cole to be heading into October, and Boone previously told reporters that his ace was "frustrated" that seemingly every mistake he has made has led to a home run.

"I’m processing it, and to be honest, I don’t really have a good answer for you," Cole said when asked about why he's given up so many home runs this year, per WFAN Sports Radio 101.9 FM. "In some cases, it’s kind of remarkable. But I need to be better."

Cole has been New York's ace since he put pen to paper on a record-breaking nine-year, $324 million deal before the 2020 season, and he has started every Game 1 possible for the Pinstripes.

In 2020, he started Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Series against the Cleveland Guardians. In seven innings, he allowed six hits and two runs on 105 pitches and struck out 13 in a 12-3 win.

In Game 1 of the American League Division Series against the Tampa Bay Rays that year, he allowed six hits and three runs on 97 pitches while striking out eight in six innings. The Yankees won that game 9-3.

The only Game 1 Cole lost came in the 2021 American League Wild Card Series against the Boston Red Sox when he allowed three runs and four hits on 50 pitches in two innings in a 6-2 defeat.

Considering his track record in the postseason, it's no surprise Boone is confident in Cole as his Game 1 starter.

Report: Derek Jeter's Former Florida Mansion Rented to Tom Brady Set to Be Demolished

Sep 20, 2022
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 09: Baseball Hall of famer Derek Jeter waves to the fans as he is honored by the New York Yankees before a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on September 09, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 09: Baseball Hall of famer Derek Jeter waves to the fans as he is honored by the New York Yankees before a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on September 09, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

The Tampa, Florida, mansion that New York Yankees legend Derek Jeter rented to Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady in 2020 is set to be demolished, per Mary K. Jacob of the New York Post.

Built in 2011, Jeter purchased the home for $15.5 million in 2012. He rented it out to Brady during his first season with the Buccaneers and recently sold the home for $22.5 million in May, 2021, making it the most expensive home to ever be sold in the area, per Jacob.

The mansion has seven bedrooms, 12 bathrooms, a gym, movie theater, heated spa, two boat lifts and a salt-water pool. The 22,000 square-foot property also contains 345 feet of ocean views.

The current owner is listed under a trust, according to Jacob, and it's unclear what the plans for the property are after the mansion is torn down.

Yankees' Frankie Montas Placed on 15-Day IL With Shoulder Injury

Sep 20, 2022
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 09:  Frankie Montas #47 of the New York Yankees pitches during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on September 09, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - SEPTEMBER 09: Frankie Montas #47 of the New York Yankees pitches during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on September 09, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

The New York Yankees placed starting pitcher Frankie Montas on the 15-day injured list with a shoulder injury on Tuesday.

While the Yankees will be without Montas for now, the team did receive some good news regarding the injury. Per Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Montas' MRI revealed no major damage.

Montas told reporters on Saturday that he was going to undergo an MRI on his shoulder, but he was optimistic there wasn't anything seriously wrong.

The Yankees decided to have the right-hander examined after his Sept. 16 start vs. the Milwaukee Brewers in which he allowed four runs on four hits and four walks in 3.1 innings.

This marks Montas' second MRI in 2022. He had one in July while still playing for the Oakland Athletics that revealed shoulder inflammation but no structural damage. The 29-year-old spent two weeks on the injured list.

After dipping their toes into the Juan Soto trade waters, the Yankees made Montas their big in-season acquisition prior to the trade deadline. They sent four prospects to Oakland in exchange for the veteran pitcher.

Montas had a 3.18 ERA with 109 strikeouts in 104.2 innings through 19 starts with the A's prior to the trade.

Since the move to New York, Montas has struggled to a 6.35 ERA, 46 hits allowed and 33 strikeouts over 39.2 innings. He has only pitched at least six innings twice and has allowed at least four earned runs five times in eight starts.

Montas' issues are among several problems the Yankees have had since the All-Star break. They are 24-30 in 54 games during the second half after posting an MLB-best 64-28 record before the Midsummer Classic.

New York still leads the American League East by 5.5 games with 16 games remaining in the regular season. Its postseason chances depend on key players, including Montas, playing up to their potential.

Yankees' Aaron Judge Is Chasing More Than Just Home Run Immortality

Sep 20, 2022
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge hits an RBI single during the first inning of the team's baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge hits an RBI single during the first inning of the team's baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays on Saturday, Sept. 10, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)

Whether it's today, tomorrow or any other day between now and the end of the 2022 season, chances are that Aaron Judge is going to break the American League single-season home run record. When it happens, it'll rightfully be seen as a big deal.

In the meantime, let's not lose sight of the other big-deal-type things Judge is doing.

His pursuit of Roger Maris' 61 home runs from 1961 is merely his most visible conquest, as well as the one that's closest to completion. The 6'7", 282-pounder out of Linden, California, didn't add to his total Monday, but only because he and the New York Yankees had the day off. As if in need of something to hold him over, he hit his 58th and 59th homers Sunday.

And so, that's where the 30-year-old Judge is with 16 games to go. He's on pace for 65 long balls, essentially implying that only an ill-fated injury or a power outage the likes of which he's rarely experienced is going to keep him from at least tying Maris. Even one more would secure only the ninth 60-homer season in Major League Baseball history.

Yet even if the highly unlikely possibility of Judge falling short of 60 comes true, his 2022 season nonetheless stands to loom large in the annals of MLB history.


He Doesn't Need 60 to Make Home Run History

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts while rounding the bases after hitting a home run against the Minnesota Twins during the sixth inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 5, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)
New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) reacts while rounding the bases after hitting a home run against the Minnesota Twins during the sixth inning of a baseball game Monday, Sept. 5, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

Yeah, yeah. Sixty is a nice, round number and all, but the 59 home runs that Judge has now are good enough on their own to put him firmly in "No Slouch" territory.

That these 59 homers put him in a tie for ninth-most in a single season is good, but we can do better by noting that they're the sixth-most by a right-handed hitter. Better still? They're the most by an American League right-handed hitter, a front on which he surpassed Jimmie Foxx (1932) and Hank Greenberg (1938) on Sunday.

From here, we can get into how Judge's 11 multi-homer games are tied with Greenberg ('38) and Sammy Sosa (1998) for MLB's single-season record. And then maybe into how little help he's needed from the home run gods, as Statcast puts his expected output at 58.2.

Let's be real, though. If there's one statistic that really gets at how dominant Judge has been this season, it's the one that concerns how many more home runs he has than the next guy on the leaderboard. That's Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber with 39, a full 20 home runs below Judge.

To this extent, Judge is trying to achieve something that could previously only be associated with MLB's O.G. home run hitter, Babe Ruth. He achieved a 20-plus-homer lead on the next-best slugger four times during the 1920s, most recently in 1928.

Which is to say that if Judge hangs on to his lead over Schwarber, he'll have pulled off a home run feat that baseball hasn't seen in nearly a century.


Odds, Ends and Triple Crown(s)

TORONTO, ON - JUNE 19: New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) swings during the eighth inning of an MLB baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 19, 2022, at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Joshua Bessex/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JUNE 19: New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) swings during the eighth inning of an MLB baseball game against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 19, 2022, at Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Joshua Bessex/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Ah, but there's more to offensive production than just hitting home runs. So much more, in fact, that it actually is possible to make even Judge's 2022 season look like a ho-hum affair.

Take batting runs, which measures how much better or worse than average a batter was in a given season. Ruth in 1921 and Barry Bonds in 2001 are on top at 116, while Judge is...wow, outside the top 40 at 75. Runs created is even less kind, also putting Ruth in '21 and Bonds in '01 on top, but leaving Judge outside the top 100.

So, those things exist. And as arguments against the all-time-ness of Judge's ongoing offensive onslaught, they're not totally invalid.

And yet, they feel a little weaksauce next to, well, this:

Even setting aside the home runs for a moment, Judge's other counting stats are kinda absurd. He's currently only the 43rd player to ever put up 120-plus runs and RBI, 360-plus total bases and 80-plus extra-base hits in a season. Should he get to, say, 130, 130, 380 and 90, suddenly he'll be on a list with only 17 other players.

Likewise, rate stats like his don't usually go together either. The last time a qualified hitter had both an on-base percentage over .400 and a slugging percentage over .700 in a season was Bonds in 2004. In the American League? Mark McGwire in 1996.

Though you only have to go back to Jim Thome in 2002 to find the last time an AL hitter had an OPS of at least 1.100, it really should be Judge's 213 OPS+ pictured in that tweet. To be more than 110 percent better than the average hitter in a given season is not a common thing among AL hitters. As of now, it's only Judge and five others in that club.

Now, if only Judge's .316 batting average had but one more point on it. If it did, he'd be free of a tie with Xander Bogaerts for second place behind with Luis Arráez among AL hitters. And thus, he'd be in position to claim the Triple Crowns.

Yes, both of them.

There's the ordinary one that counts average, home runs and RBI, and then there's the triple-slash one that counts average, on-base and slugging percentage. Whereas Judge would be the first since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 to claim the former, he could become only the ninth hitter (h/t Jay Jaffe of FanGraphs) to claim both, and the first since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.

Whether Judge can finish the job is ultimately a matter of whether he can avoid cooling off. His .491 average for September puts him up on everyone, including Bogaerts and Arráez:

With his monthly strikeout rate down to a season-low 22.5 percent, Judge is helping himself by putting more balls in play. Which is good, because he's hitting by far a league-best .452 when he makes contact on a pitch.

In other words: Yeah, his dual Triple Crown chase is the real deal.


He's Making All This Count

New York Yankees' Aaron Judge celebrates after hitting a solo run home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Saturday, July 30, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge celebrates after hitting a solo run home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Saturday, July 30, 2022, in New York. (AP Photo/Mary Altaffer)

Even with Judge closing in on Maris and not one, but two Triple Crowns, it's no small testament to Shohei Ohtani that there's still a debate going on about who truly deserves the American League MVP for 2022.

It's indeed a fair one to the extent that, unlike Ohtani, Judge isn't both a top-five hitter and a top-five pitcher in the AL. He also has a smaller lead on Ohtani in rWAR (9.6 to 8.7) than he does in fWAR (10.4 to 8.7), and there's still another debate about whether WAR can adequately measure how much Ohtani truly matters to the Los Angeles Angels.

By that same token, though, it ought to be fair to ask whether WAR is also underrating Judge.

It matters not to WAR that the 88-58 Yankees are playoff-bound while the 64-83 Angels have already been eliminated from playoff contention on Monday. The unspoken implication there is that if Judge and Ohtani were to swap places, the Yankees would still be good and the Angels would still be bad. In the abstract, it's hard to argue with that.

Yet to take this stance is to be overly flippant about how Judge has been involved in the Yankees' success not merely abstractly, but often quite directly.

This, too, can be quantified, including by way of simple things like New York's records when Judge drives in a run (47-18) or hits a home run (37-11). Further, he has OPSes over 1.000 in high-leverage spots and late and close situations. Further still, his more specific feats include nine game-tying and 23 go-ahead knocks, including four walk-offs.

Whereas WAR cares not for clutch acts like these, other stats do. The most easily explained of the bunch is win probability added, which measures how much a player adds or subtracts to his team's chances of winning at any given moment. The bigger the moment and the more he comes through, the better.

Judge's WPA for the season is yet another league-leading mark at 7.3. And while that's not a historic figure in and of itself, he stands to join elite all-time company when he inevitably pairs it with 10 rWAR. Only six AL hitters have ever gone there, and none since Yaz in '67.

This will invariably come off as a tacit endorsement of Judge's case for the AL MVP, which...well, OK, maybe it is precisely that.

Yet it's more so meant as a full-throated endorsement for Judge's 2022 season to have a place in the inner circle of MLB's all-time seasons. Because no matter how you look at it, it's basically impossible to see it is as something other than truly special.


Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

Yankees' Aaron Judge: 'Not Too Difficult' to Ignore Noise Surrounding Maris HR Chase

Sep 18, 2022
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 18: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees crosses home plate after hitting a home run in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 18, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 18: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees crosses home plate after hitting a home run in the third inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 18, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

The New York Yankees' single-season home run record is well within reach for Aaron Judge, but he isn't having too much trouble tuning out the noise.

"It's not too difficult if your main objective and your main focus is to go out there and win a game," he told reporters after hitting his 58th and 59th long balls of the season in Sunday's 12-8 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. "I'm focused on doing what I can to be a good teammate, help the team win."

There was a time when the Yankees' single-season record of 61 home runs in a season set by Roger Maris in 1961 was also the top overall mark in baseball history.

However, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa each surpassed that total, with Sosa doing so three times and McGwire doing so twice. Yet it was Bonds who set the record with 73 long balls in the 2001 campaign.

It should be noted that Bonds, McGwire and Sosa have all been tied to performance-enhancing drugs, so Judge surpassing 61 homers would be all the more impressive because he never has been at this point of his career.

Judge has been doing this in the final year of his contract, and he could be one of the most highly sought-after free agents in the sport next offseason if he and the Yankees can't reach an agreement on a new deal.

For now, though, he said his focus is on helping the team win.

New York is now 88-58 and 5.5 games ahead of the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East. The division race is closer than it once was thanks to inconsistent play from the Bronx Bombers in the second half of the season, but they seem to have steadied things with a 9-4 record in their last 13.

And as long as Judge is in the middle of the lineup launching home runs, they will remain on the short list of the most realistic World Series contenders.