Angels Manager Nevin: 'I Love Aaron Judge Like a Son, but' Shohei Ohtani Is MLB MVP
Sep 18, 2022
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 17: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels looks on as he hits an rbi double against the Seattle Mariners during the first inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 17, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
For Los Angeles Angels interim manager Phil Nevin, there is no debate: Shohei Ohtani is the American League MVP.
"I've said it before: He's the most valuable player of our game right now," Nevin told reporters Saturday. "Until somebody can come in and do the things he does on both sides, I don't see it going any other way. I love Aaron Judge like a son, but I'll continue to say it: [Ohtani] can take over a baseball game like nobody can."
Nevin spent the previous four seasons as a coach with the New York Yankees, so he has insight into the brilliance of Aaron Judge, who is having perhaps the finest power-hitting performance of the post-steroid era.
Judge enters Sunday's games leading MLB with 57 home runs and 121 runs batted in. His homer total is the second-highest since the sport began instituting a performance-enhancing-drug policy, behind only Giancarlo Stanton's 59 dingers in 2017. The slugger has 17 games remaining in the season to surpass Roger Maris' Yankees record for homers in a season (61).
Ohtani, the sport's two-way superstar and reigning AL MVP, has arguably surpassed his performance from a year ago. He's hitting 266/.356/.536 with 34 home runs and 89 runs batted in, ranking fourth in the AL in homers while also pitching like a Cy Young contender. The righty has a 13-8 record with a 2.43 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out 196 batters in 148 innings pitched.
What Ohtani is doing, being a superstar at the plate and on the mound, is unprecedented. That said, the Angels are once again languishing out of the playoff race, while Judge's Yankees are leading the AL East and have the second-best run differential in baseball.
While most of the sport has generally acknowledged baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport, it's hard to see Ohtani being able to overcome Judge's equally historic season with the voters.
Red-Hot Mike Trout is Hitting Homers Again—and It's Time For Angels to Trade Him
Sep 14, 2022
CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 12: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels celebrates his two-run home run in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 12, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Mike Trout may well hit 20 home runs in his last 20 games of 2022 at the rate he's been going. The Los Angeles Angels shouldn't need to be told to enjoy it while it lasts.
Instead, what they may really need to hear is that these next 20 games should also be Trout's last in an Angels uniform.
Trout himself has much to show for his 12 years with the Angels. The 31-year-old is a surefire future Hall of Famer whose credentials include 10 All-Star selections, three American League MVPs, a pair of contracts totaling over $500 million and enough statistical accolades to fill his own section on Baseball Reference's Stathead tool.
In that, one of the top entries would be Trout's recent home run barrage between Sep. 4 and 12. Though he fell short of tying the all-time record of eight games in a row, homering in seven straight games is still darned impressive.
Of course, the problem here is not how much Trout has to show for his time with the Angels, but how little the team has to show for it. His dozen years in Anaheim have coincided with just one playoff appearance and, as of now, seven losing seasons. At 61-81, the Angels need just one more loss to make it eight.
Per his announcement in August, Angels owner Arte Moreno has apparently determined that this problem need not be his anymore. He's looking to sell the team, which naturally puts many aspects of its future up in the air.
The Trout aspect, however, need not be a conundrum. The Angels should try to sell high on him in a trade this winter, for their sake and especially for his.
The Injuries Are Only Hurting Trout's Playing Time
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - SEPTEMBER 06: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels celebrates after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Detroit Tigers at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 06, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Meg Oliphant/Getty Images)
As superhuman as Trout has looked for the bulk of his Angels tenure, the injuries he's sustained in the last six seasons give it away that he's merely an exceptional human.
There was the thumb surgery in 2017 and the foot surgery in 2019, followed by a calf strain that cost him all but 36 games in 2021. He more recently missed over a month of this season with a rib injury that the Angels found out was actually part of a rare back condition.
Yet it ought to be a part of Trout's legend that none of these injuries have been evident when he's been able to play. He's hit at .298/.429/.630 with a 185 OPS+ since 2017, with 162-game averages of 50 home runs and 17 stolen bases.
What he's doing this year is especially remarkable, as his 35 home runs rank second to Aaron Judge's 57 among American Leaguers even though he's taken only 420 plate appearances.
Mike Trout is going to end up finishing second in MLB in homers without qualifying for the batting title.
Add in a .367 on-base percentage and what defensive runs saved rates as above average defense in center field, and you get the main components of Trout's 5.3 rWAR. Far from his twice-achieved peak of 10.5, but still elite among AL hitters if put on a 162-game scale:
Aaron Judge, NYY: 10.3 WAR/162
Mike Trout, LAA: 8.6 WAR/162
Andrés Giménez, CLE: 7.7 WAR/162
Yordan Álvarez, HOU: 7.6 WAR/162
Julio Rodríguez, SEA: 7.1 WAR/162
Despite his injuries and the shortened season of 2020, Trout's 81.4 career rWAR still ranks ahead of Hall of Fame center fielders such as Joe DiMaggio (79.2) and Duke Snider (65.9), and he may well pass Ken Griffey Jr. (83.8) by the end of 2022.
So, yeah. Trout really is still extraordinary. It shouldn't be necessary to spell it out, and yet it feels like it is. Not just on account of how much time he's lost to injuries, but also how tragically irrelevant the unending blah-ness of the Angels has rendered his exploits.
About this, it's high time something was done.
This Winter Might Be the Angels' Last Best Chance to Sell High
ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 24: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim looks on as owner Arte Moreno talks during a press conference at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on March 24, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images)
Even setting aside the fact that Moreno has put a "For Sale" sign on the Angels, Trout would be a logical trade candidate for the 2022-23 offseason to multiple extents.
Starting with how...
The Clock Is Ticking on His Prime
Though Trout's injuries have strictly limited his availability to this point, it's just a matter of time before his ability also begins to fade.
His back condition is a big enough red flag. Trout may be making good on his declaration that the initial panic over the diagnosis was "a little exaggeration," yet Angels trainer Mike Frostad's warning that the star will have to manage the condition "through the rest of his career" still reverberates.
Trout's age likewise invites skepticism. When he turned 31 on Aug. 7, he might well have been officially declared a middle-aged baseballer. There's no scarier cautionary tale about the road ahead than Griffey, who basically devolved into a replacement-level player after his age-30 season in 2000.
To this point, Trout has indeed made a bargain of his nearly $200 million in career earnings. But that's the past. The notion that he can likewise make a bargain of the nearly $300 million he's owed through his age-38 season in 2030 is frankly far-fetched.
There's thus sense in the Angels moving Trout before he and his contract become truly immovable, especially considering that...
The Organization Is Broken
Mainly because of Trout and (speaking of immovable players) Anthony Rendon, the Angels have no less than $70 million in guaranteed dollars on their books from now until 2026. For a team whose payrolls have maxed out in the $180 million range, that's a heavy weight.
The team's farm system, meanwhile, is just awful. B/R's Joel Reuter ranked it as the worst in baseball after the draft in June, and it likewise landed at the bottom for MLB.com even after the team added young talent at the Aug. 2 trade deadline.
When a team is this utterly screwed, it's time to rebuild. And this may still be the case under new ownership, because...
Their Next Owner Might Not Be a Miracle Worker
With regard to the inevitable sale of the Angels, the best-case scenario is a situation akin to Steve Cohen's purchase of the New York Mets. He's been throwing his weight around basically ever since he took control of the Mets in Nov. 2020. Uncoincidentally, the Mets are now World Series contenders in 2022.
But is a get-good-quick situation the most realistic scenario for the Angels? Perhaps not.
Moreno's decision came so late that he may be hard-pressed to close a sale before Opening Day of 2023. There also just aren't many prospective buyers out there with pockets as deep as Cohen's. To wit, Forbes puts the net worth of the reportedly interested Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong ($7.2 billion) more than $10 billion below Cohen's ($17.5 billion).
Rather than a Cohen-style rebuild, the Angels may be in for more of a traditional rebuild under their next owner. As in, one that would require substantial time.
Though Trout could hypothetically make like Miguel Cabrera on the Detroit Tigers and serve out his remaining contract in Anaheim while his stardom fades into nothing, let's just say...
Trout Deserves Better
When news of Moreno's decision to sell the Angels came down, Trout skillfully straddled the line between civility and uncertainty with his public remarks.
“I’m still trying to process it,” he told reporters. “I found out when you guys found out. Looking back, I’ve been here my whole career. Had some great times with Arte. He took care of me, my family. I appreciate all he has done for me. I guess he’s moving on.”
Trout's fondness for Moreno is about what you'd expect given that A) he's the only owner he's ever played for and B) said owner has signed him to not one, but two historic contracts.
And yet, Trout has at times been vocal with his frustration with all the losing. Though he's never seemed like the type who would request a trade, there's long been just cause for him to do so. And with the Angels simultaneously in a death spiral and up for sale, there's even more cause for him to want out now.
Rather than effectively dare Trout to demand a trade, Moreno and the Angels should see the writing on the wall and be the ones to get the ball rolling. If he'd rather stay put, he can either say so or ultimately exercise his no-trade clause.
Otherwise, a trade would be a door to an amicable split and an opportunity to win that simply won't exist in Anaheim anytime soon.
Let's Speculate on Possible Homes for Trout
PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 22: California Angels Mike Trout takes in a game during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Philadelphia Eagle on December 22, 2019, at Lincoln Financial Filed in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
As for what a Trout trade might look like, relevant precedents include the 2017 blockbuster that sent Giancarlo Stanton to the New York Yankees and the 2021 blockbuster in which the St. Louis Cardinals landed Nolan Arenado.
As the former was basically a straight-up salary dump, the Angels would be better served putting their own spin on the latter to get both much-needed salary relief and young talent.
Because of their status as fringe contenders, the Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox might be long shots despite their big budgets and common needs in center field. The Philadelphia Phillies are a better fit, and Trout's fondness for the city's football team probably wouldn't hurt their cause.
Yet with the Phillies' payroll already at an all-time high of $228.7 million, the more practical Eastern landing spots for Trout are perhaps in New York. That's where the Yankees (Judge) and Mets (Brandon Nimmo) stand to lose their primary center fielders to free agency. Other pending free agents project to further heighten each club's payroll flexibility.
It's harder to fathom Trout going elsewhere in Southern California, especially to the archrival Los Angeles Dodgers. But to the San Diego Padres? Maybe. Their payroll situation isn't much better than that of the Phillies, but a foursome of Trout, Juan Soto, Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. is the kind of thing that general manager A.J. Preller would fancy.
Granted, this whole thing is a "maybe." There should be no mistaking that all we're doing is indulging a little fantasy about what the Angels should do. If Moreno doesn't want to trade Trout even while he has one foot out the door, well, that's his prerogative.
All we're saying is that Trout is still too good for the purgatory that the Angels have been and will continue to keep him in if they do nothing. The best time for him to leave was yesterday. The next-best time is soon.
Video: Angels' Mike Trout Homers in 7th Straight Game; 1 Game Shy of Tying MLB Record
Sep 13, 2022
CLEVELAND, OHIO - SEPTEMBER 12: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels celebrates his two-run home run in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field on September 12, 2022 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Los Angeles Angels slugger Mike Trout is on the verge of history.
Trout launched a home run for the seventh straight game on Monday, going yard in the fifth inning against the Cleveland Guardians:
SEVEN STRAIGHT GAMES WITH A HOME RUN. 😱 @BRWalkoff
Monday's home run was the 35th of the season for Trout. The three-time AL MVP entered the game slashing .280/.369/.629 as one of the lone bright spots for the Angels this year. Los Angeles entered the day with a 61-79 record and is set to miss the playoffs for the eighth straight season.
Angels' Shohei Ohtani Leaves Game vs. Astros Because of Apparent Blister on Hand
Sep 11, 2022
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 14: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels leads off first base against the Minnesota Twins in the third inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 14, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
Los Angeles Angels phenom Shohei Ohtani exited Saturday's game against the Houston Astros with an apparent blister on his hand.
Ohtani went through his normal warmup process and tossed a few pitches heading into the sixth inning before coming out of the game. He was replaced by Jimmy Herget.
The 28-year-old allowed one run on six hits and struck out seven batters in five innings.
Shohei Ohtani comes out of the game as a pitcher with an apparent hand blister. pic.twitter.com/Bj0dp99cE2
Losing the Japanese star for any period of time is concerning for the Angels, especially because of his ability to be effective both on the mound and at the plate.
However, L.A. is third in the AL West with a 60-78 record and has no chance to make the postseason, according to FanGraphs. So, it's best for the club to give Ohtani some rest when needed.
Entering Saturday's game, Ohtani was slashing .267/.356/.535 with 33 home runs, 86 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 133 games. He was also 11-8 on the mound with a 2.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 136 innings across 23 starts.
When sidelined, the Angels can turn to Mike Trout, Jared Walsh and Jo Adell to lead the offense. On the mound, they can look to Reid Detmers and Tucker Davidson, though they'll also likely call someone up from Triple-A.
ANAHEIM, CA - APRIL 27, 2022: The Los Angeles Angels logo in the dugout prior to a game against the Cleveland Guardians at Angels Stadium on April 27, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Two teenage prospects sued the Los Angeles Angels in the Dominican Republic over allegations the team "reneged on verbal agreements to sign them," according to ESPN's Jeff Passan.
Keiderson Pavon is claiming he agreed to a $1.8 million contract with the Angels when he was 14, per Passan. Willy Fanas, meanwhile, said L.A. agreed to a $425,000 contract when he was 15.
Passan also shared a video that purportedly shows Pavon with an Angels scout who says the young player is "signed," which is met with a celebration in the dugout.
However, the Angels hired Perry Minasian as their new general manager to replace Billy Eppler in November 2020. With a new front office in place, the organizational approach toward Pavon and Fanas changed. They claim the team said it wouldn't be tendering their contracts.
Neither the Angels nor MLB commented on Passan's story.
Passan also laid out how the lawsuit could have a ripple effect across the league:
"The potential consequences of the civil actions, which were filed in May 2021 and have not previously been reported, are enormous beyond the millions of dollars in damages Fañas and Pavon are seeking. Hundreds of early deals are agreed to by teams and players each year but the practice would be far less prevalent if a judge deems them legally binding, four high-ranking team executives told ESPN."
MLB and the MLB Players Association agreed in March to begin working toward a formal international draft to replace the current system for signing prospects from abroad. The proposal ultimately fell through in July.
Supporters of the international draft pointed to the widespread corruption surrounding top amateur prospects outside of the United States.
Even if the lawsuit's outcome doesn't carry clear implications for MLB, Passan's report will likely increase the calls for a draft or another plan to create a formal framework that paves the way for young international players.
Golden State Warriors Group Reportedly Interested in Buying Angels from Arte Moreno
Sep 2, 2022
ANAHEIM, CA - APRIL 27, 2022: The Los Angeles Angels logo in the dugout prior to a game against the Cleveland Guardians at Angels Stadium on April 27, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Chris Bernacchi/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
The Los Angeles Angels are in for a shakeup soon after owner Arte Moreno announced last week that he will explore selling the team.
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the team is drawing interest from multiple potential suitors, including a group that isn't far away.
"A Golden State Warriors group—plus groups from Hollywood, Orange County and Japan (Shohei Ohtani connection!)—are showing interest in the Angels," Heyman wrote.
Heyman added that the sale of the Angels is "expected to fetch $2 billion-plus" even though the market is somewhat crowded with the Washington Nationals also up for sale.
After Moreno's announcement that he'd pursue selling the franchise, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times named Warriors governor Joe Lacob as an "intriguing candidate" to purchase the team. This isn't Lacob's first time being linked to pursuing an MLB franchise, as Shaikin noted he "has looked into buying the Angels, [Los Angeles] Dodgers and Oakland Athletics at various times during the past two decades."
Shaikin asked Lacob directly if he intends to go after the Angels and he responded in an email, "Can’t answer this question that fast. We look at good opportunities."
Lacob purchased the Warriors in 2010. Under his leadership, the team developed into a successful franchise. Golden State won its fourth NBA championship in eight years this past season.
The 66-year-old has a personal connection to the Angels franchise, telling the San Francisco Chronicle in July, "I became an Angels fan and worked at Anaheim Stadium for seven years as a peanut vendor."
Shaikin noted that Lacob faces some competition from Los Angeles Rams governor Stan Kroenke. He apparently won't have to compete with another NBA executive, as Shaikin reported that Steve Ballmer of the Los Angeles Clippers and Mark Cuban of the Dallas Mavericks are both uninterested in pursuing the Angels.
Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani: Handicapping the AL MVP Race Down the Stretch
Aug 31, 2022
New York Yankees' Aaron Judge, right, drops his bat after hitting a three-run home run as Los Angeles Angels catcher Max Stassi, center, watches along with home plate umpire Alan Porter during the XX inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Aug. 30, 2022, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
The New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels have played some good baseball over the last two nights, yet arguably more compelling has been the anything-you-can-do-I-can-do-better contest between the American League's leading MVP contenders.
First, there was reigning AL MVP Shohei Ohtani hitting a go-ahead home run for the Angels on Monday:
Though the AL MVP race was already on before the Judge vs. Ohtani show started in Anaheim, it really feels on now.
DraftKings has Judge (-1000) as the favorite, with Ohtani (+550) as really the only player whose odds are within shouting distance. With only one month left in the 2022 Major League Baseball season, neither player can afford to weaken his case for the award.
The Case (So Far) for Aaron Judge
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 22: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees reacts after hitting a home run during the third inning against the New York Mets at Yankee Stadium on August 22, 2022 in the Bronx borough of New York City. (Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images)
It's just not every year that a guy hits 51 home runs, much less before the end of August. The notion of Judge carving out his niche in history is thus no longer in the realm of hyperbole.
As he's on pace to hit 64 home runs, Roger Maris' American League record of 61 from 1961 is well within Judge's reach. Simply hitting nine more would allow him to secure only the ninth 60-homer season in MLB history, and only the third to take place outside of the league's steroid era of the 1990s and early 2000s.
In the meantime, Judge is already one of just eight players to ever pair 50-plus home runs with an OPS+ north of 190, denoting that he's more than 90 percent better than the average hitter in 2022. And with a 15-homer lead over Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, he's threatening the largest gap for a league-wide home run title winner since Jimmie Foxx beat Babe Ruth by 17 in 1932, as noted by Benjamin Hoffman of the New York Times.
As for what other numbers the 30-year-old has going for him, how about AL-leading marks for the following:
76 Walks
104 Runs Scored
113 Runs Batted In
71 Extra-Base Hits
312 Total Bases
.667 SLG
1.064 OPS
7.7 rWAR
5.6 WPA
The most telling of these figures might be Judge's 5.6 WPA. That stands for "win probability added," and Judge's lead in that category ought to be as self-explanatory as the phrase itself.
Among his exploits this year are four game-tying home runs and 15 go-ahead home runs. The latter collection includes three walk-offs, tying him with Mickey Mantle for the Yankees' single-season record.
Far from a bat-only player, Judge has also been a godsend for the Yankees on defense. Quantifiably so, in the sense that his metrics are in the black. And also not-so-quantifiably, in the sense that the 6'7", 282-pound right fielder has frequently taken one for the team by starting 60 times in center field. That's allowed the Yankees to hide the hole at that position.
With the Yankees sitting comfortably atop the AL East at 79-51, Judge has already done much to move the needle for the team's quest to win its first World Series since 2009. And while said quest has been sidetracked with a 18-28 record since July 9, it's not Judge's fault.
He's indeed done his utmost to keep the losses from piling up, as his wRC+ (which operates similarly to OPS+) has gone up while his at-bats per home run have gone down:
Seriously, what more could you ask from an offensive player?
The Case (So Far) for Shohei Ohtani
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 29: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels hits a two-run home run against the New York Yankees during the fifth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 29, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Ooh, I know. How about if the same offensive player was also an elite pitcher?
That was the book on the 28-year-old Ohtani en route to his unanimous MVP victory in 2021, and so it is once again in 2022. Per his 148 OPS+, he's the fifth-best hitter in the American League. Per his 152 ERA+, he's also the Junior Circuit's fourth-best starting pitcher.
From these perspectives, Ohtani hasn't actually backslid even though his home run output has slipped from 46 last year to 29 thus far in 2022. And considering that his '21 campaign was seriouslydiscussed as one of the greatest in history, that he's basically doing it all over again is not to be underrated.
If WAR is the best way to measure the totality of Ohtani's contributions, it's a good enough reflection that his 7.2 rWAR only puts him half a win off Judge's pace. Yet there's also a good argument that WAR isn't the best measure of Ohtani's total value, as he pays an arguably unfair positional penalty for taking his at-bats exclusively as a designated hitter.
Further, Ohtani's clutchness rivals Judge's more than many might realize.
A higher rate (12 of 29 for 41 percent) of Ohtani's home runs have given the Angels either a tie or the lead than Judge's (19 of 51 for 37 percent) have for the Yankees. He's also one of baseball's best jam-escapers on the mound, ranking second in the AL with an 82.6 left-on-base percentage and first with a .461 OPS with runners in scoring position.
As was the case in 2021, the catch with Ohtani's latest MVP pursuit is that it's going to waste on an Angels team that's nowhere to be found in the AL playoff picture. They went as high as 11 games over .500 on May 15, but they've since dropped 61 out of 93.
But just as Judge has continued to fight the good fight amid the Yankees' recent struggles, so has Ohtani on both sides of the ball for the Angels. His wRC+ has likewise gone up, while his ERA- (basically ERA+, except lower is better) has gone down:
To label Ohtani as any kind of responsible for the grim state of the Angels is the opposite of fair. Indeed, it's entirely possible that neither team would be in a different spot right now if Ohtani was on the Yankees and Judge was on the Angels.
It All Comes Down to September
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 29: Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees hits his 50th home run against the Los Angeles Angels during the eighth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on August 29, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Then again, where the Angels and Yankees would be right now if Ohtani and Judge had switched places at the outset of 2022 might not be the best thought experiment.
As posed by Yankees broadcaster Michael Kay on Twitter, there's also the relatively simple question of where both clubs would be without their biggest stars:
I’ve been covering baseball for 36 years and the season @TheJudge44 is having is one of the best I’ve ever seen. Take hm off the @yankees and they’d have trouble making playoffs. Take Ohtani off @Angels and they still would be on the outside looking in. Most valuable?
Kay might not be wrong about the Yankees being more of a fringe playoff contender sans Judge. His 7.6 rWAR accounts for 26.4 percent of the offense's total output of 28.7. Likewise, the Bronx Bombers would be missing a quarter of their 205 home runs without him.
That Ohtani is nonetheless seen as having a shot—both in the betting odds and in variouspockets of The Discourse as well—at the AL MVP speaks to the ongoing appreciation for and fascination with his unprecedented two-way talent. It also helps that he's not letting up, as August has seen Ohtani post a 1.030 OPS at the plate and a 2.20 ERA on the mound.
Ohtani's AL MVP chances would surely look that much better if he stays hot as Judge cools in September, for which there's a non-zero chance of happening.
Take what befell Giancarlo Stanton amid his own hunt for 60 home runs in 2017. He had 51 through the Miami Marlins' 132nd game, but then pitchers stopped challenging him with fastballs and his pace slowed accordingly. He finished with "only" 59 home runs.
Yet it's almost as if Judge had been anticipating similar treatment.
Though he's already seen his share of fastballs dry up in August, that hasn't stopped him from slugging nine home runs this month. As much as Judge likes fastballs, he also knows to take a hanging breaking ball (i.e., this one or this one) when offered.
As long as Judge continues to stay in his approach, there won't be any avenues for imminent danger to creep up on his pursuit of home run history. His lead position in the AL MVP race will likewise remain safe, and it's not a given that there will be an opening for Ohtani even if Judge cools enough to fall short of the fabled 60-homer plateau.
Judge has, after all, already established himself as the kind of competition that Ohtani didn't have as he ran away with last year's AL MVP race. Though Marcus Semien and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. both topped 40 home runs, both of them finished roughly two WAR shy of Ohtani for a Toronto Blue Jays squad that missed the playoffs.
So, barring an as-yet-unknown force capable of shrinking Judge down to size, the AL MVP is his to lose.
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Breaking Down Possible Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout Trades Under New Angels Ownership
Aug 25, 2022
ANAHEIM, CA - SEPTEMBER 25: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels gets a bump from Arte Moreno before being given the Angels Most Valuable player award before playing the Seattle Mariners at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on September 25, 2021 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
Reports began to surface on Tuesday afternoon that Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno is exploring a possible sale of the franchise that he has possessed since 2003.
And if the article that ESPN's Buster Olney wrote on the matter is indicative of how things have been going in Anaheim over the past two decades, this is most welcome news for Angels fans.
Olney reports that even though the Angels' operations department reached a consensus that trading away Shohei Ohtani prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline was the best course of action for the long-term outlook of the franchise, Moreno immediately put the kibosh on parting with the two-way generational talent.
"It was an example of Moreno single-handedly steering his team, again—and probably in the wrong direction, again," Olney wrote.
The irony, of course, is that one of his anonymous peers told Olney, "He's had enough...he's got a s--tty team that's going to be bad for a long time."
Moreno made this bed with his propensity for egregiously over-paying on long-term deals with hitters already at or near the end of their primes—see: Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews Jr. and Anthony Rendon—but now he wants someone else to sleep in it.
And when that to-be-determined new billionaire inherits this mess, they will need to make a couple of massive decisions in a hurry, because this franchise is at (and possibly already past) a critical crossroads.
The Angels haven't made the postseason since 2014 and last won a postseason game in 2009. Their current winning percentage (.419) is on pace to be their worst since going 47-68 (.409) in the lockout-shortened 1994 campaign. The franchise record of 95 losses in a single season (happened in both 1968 and 1980) is at least in some danger of being broken.
And if you're thinking, "Well, things are bad now, but maybe they're building toward something in the near future," buddy, do I have some bad news for you.
Shortly after the draft one month ago, our Joel Reuter rated the Angels farm system as the worst among the 30 franchises. MLB.com put out updated farm system rankings on Tuesday and also had the Angels in dead last. ESPN was a little more optimistic in putting the Angels at 27th in its post-trade deadline farm system rankings, but still, not great!
But could a couple of offseason trades possibly rescue them from their October-less abyss?
They Could Trade Away Shohei Ohtani
DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 21: Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Shohei Ohtani (17) delivers a pitch during an MLB game against the Detroit Tigers on August 21, 2022 at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
As previously mentioned, the best time to deal the hitting/pitching unicorn was at the trade deadline. Maybe the haul wouldn't have quite matched what the Washington Nationals got for Juan Soto, but many teams surely would have paid a pretty penny for (at least) 1.5 years of Ohtani's services.
L.A..'s return on an Ohtani trade this offseason would be considerably lower. He only has one year left before hitting free agency. He is arbitration-eligible for that one year, but the cost for that one year is certain to skyrocket well beyond the $5.5 million that he's making this season from that two-year, $8.5 million deal he signed after an extremely disappointing 2020 campaign.
After winning AL MVP in 2018 and finishing top 10 in 2019, Mookie Betts avoided arbitration with a record-setting one-year, $27 million deal in January 2020. Ohtani won AL MVP last year and is well on his way to a top-two finish this year, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he gets $30 million in 2023 (before signing a long-term deal with an average salary that eclipses $40 million).
In other words, he would be a mighty expensive one-year rental, and getting some team to give up a bunch of top prospects for him might be tough.
With David Price, Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel, Joey Gallo, Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson all hitting free agency, the Los Angeles Dodgers have well over $100 million coming off the books this offseason—and could decline club options on Danny Duffy, Daniel Hudson and Justin Turner to clear up over $25 million more. They have money to burn.
Moreover, they have a bunch of top prospects, as evidenced by the fact that they were one of the top suitors for Soto.
They might not want to part with the likes of Diego Cartaya and Bobby Miller to get a guy who they could just throw a whole bunch of money at next offseason, but the Angels could also dangle Ohtani to the Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs—How awesome would it be to pair Ohtani with Seiya Suzuki in Chicago?—to force the Dodgers' hand.
They Could Trade Away Mike Trout
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JULY 10: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels reacts after striking out against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 10, 2022 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
Trading away Trout would be complicated on multiple levels, not the least of which is his full no-trade clause.
I have to believe he'd be willing to waive that clause if it means going to a team that might actually be competitive again before he is completely past his prime. But if Trout is dead set on staying in Anaheim, cashing his paycheck and enjoying his Octobers off, there's nothing the new ownership can do about it.
The second complication is his recent injury history.
Out of 832 possible games since the beginning of 2017, Trout has played in just 562, or 67.5 percent. He missed most of last season with a calf injury and a good chunk of the current campaign with a costovertebral dysfunction. And let me assure you, back issues do not tend to get better as you enter your mid-30s.
And the third complication is the sheer number of dollars and years left on his contract.
Even if the recent injuries don't concern a possible trade partner, Trout is 31 and under contract through 2030 at $37.1 million each year. That's eight more seasons for a combined cost of just under $300 million.
To be fair, Trout at that price almost looks like a bargain with the way teams have been spending lately. If Corey Seager is worth $325 million for 10 years and Francisco Lindor is worth $341 million for 10 years, $300 million for eight years of a three-time MVP and nine-time top-five MVP vote-getter doesn't seem too shabby.
The trick, of course, is convincing a deep-pocketed team that the potential reward is worth the risk.
A Trout trade may need to resemble what the Rockies did with Nolan Arenado in February 2021, in which they agreed to eat $50 million and accepted a platter of prospects devoid of star potential. But at least the Angels could afford to lock up Ohtani for the long haul if they pass the Trout buck elsewhere.
They Could Trade Both Stars Away
DETROIT, MI - AUGUST 19: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels comes up to bat with Mike Trout #27 on deck for the first inning of a game against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on August 19, 2022, in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images)
The unfortunate part of this option is the Angels will still be paying Anthony Rendon $38.6 million in each of the next four years. You can't properly hit the reset button while stuck with a bad contract—as the Washington Nationals are finding out the hard way with Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin.
But even though the Angels couldn't go full 2013 Houston Astros with a tank job, trading away Trout would save $300 million over the next eight years, while trading away Ohtani would provide a much-needed boost to a woeful farm system.
That means increased financial flexibility and better long-term potential.
Now, the on-field product for the next few years would be a hot mess, and they'd be throwing away a whole bunch of marketability by parting with what are arguably two of the three biggest names (along with Aaron Judge) in the entire sport.
But if you're most likely going to lose Ohtani after next season and your on-field product is already as bad as it has been in decades, why not just steer into the skid and start targeting 2027 for a championship push?
Buying a team and immediately gutting its star power is a rough way to make a first impression on your new fanbase, but it might be the best approach for the new ownership.
They Could Do Nothing and Hope to Re-Sign Ohtani
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - MAY 09: Shohei Ohtani #17 and Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels celebrate a home run against the Tampa Bay Rays in the sixth inning at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 09, 2022 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)
They would need to find a new owner like the Mets' Steve Cohen who seems to enjoy spending as much money as possible to chase a title, but the Angels could always just roll with what they've got and try to apply the fantasy baseball "stars and scrubs" auction draft strategy to real life moving forward.
Let's assume Ohtani is going to cost $40 million per year on a long-term deal. It might be more than that, considering he's possibly headed for both MVP and Cy Young votes this season and should probably be paid like two great players in one, but humor me here.
The Angels are already on the hook for $75.7 million between Trout and Rendon in each of the next four years. Adding $40 million for Ohtani would take them over $115 million for the trio.
That's a lot of money on a small number of players.
But the league average payroll these days is nearly $150 million. The Angels have ended each of the last five non-pandemic-shortened seasons north of $165 million. And in that L.A. market, they could surely eclipse $200 million and still turn a profit—especially if it means added revenue from postseason tickets for a change.
Let's not forget, the Angels started out 27-17 with a plus-53 run differential and looked like a legitimate World Series contender just three months ago—before Rendon got hurt and before Taylor Ward cooled off drastically. They've been the worst team in the majors since then with a 25-55 record, but standing pat and hoping for the best in 2023 might not be the worst idea.
The risk in both this approach and the "Trade Trout; Re-Sign Ohtani" route is that he may have no interest in staying with the Angels beyond next season. But all four options have both their risks and rewards, and I would roll the dice with doing nothing.
It could end disastrously. Ohtani might walk next offseason, leaving the Angels with nothing more than a compensatory pick. Trout and Rendon might never be everyday players again, and this could be an expensive basement-dweller for years to come.
When you can take one last ride with three of the best players (when healthy) of the past half-decade, though, you neither look that gift horse in the mouth nor try to sell it for 80 cents on the dollar. Try to win it all in 2023 and hope that convinces Ohtani to stay.
Or go ahead and trade away Trout and Ohtani in hopes of substantially expediting the impending rebuild. Either could work, and if Moreno actually does sell, it's up to a TBD billionaire to make that difficult call.
Rod Carew Says Arte Moreno Exploring Sale of Angels Is 'Happy News'
Aug 23, 2022
COOPERSTOWN, NEW YORK - JULY 24: Hall of Famer Rod Carew attends the Baseball Hall of Fame induction ceremony at Clark Sports Center on July 24, 2022 in Cooperstown, New York. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno is exploring a sale of the team after 20 years of ownership, and Baseball Hall of Famer Rod Carew was "happy" to hear the news because he hopes his relationship with the franchise "can be restored" under new leadership.
Well this is happy news. I have renewed hope that my relationship with the @Angels organization can be fully restored https://t.co/9m5f5WCe6m
This isn't the first time Carew has talked about his dicey relationship with Angels ownership.
In January, Carew posted a throwback photo of himself in a Twins uniform, writing on Twitter that he was "all smiles" thinking about the 12 years he spent with the club from 1967-78.
The 76-year-old was then asked about how he views his allegiance to the Angels, whom he played for from 1979-85, in comparison to his time with the Twins. He said that L.A.'s current leadership group does not want him involved with the club.
I love Angels fans as much as Twins fans. I ‘grew up’ in Minnesota, but my home is in California to this day. I have friends at both organizations who I cherish. The only difference is the Angels’ leadership does not want me to be involved with their club and the Twins do https://t.co/qc6gQIyvRn
Carew was one of the best players in the 1970s, earning the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 1967, the AL MVP in 1977, seven batting titles and 18 All-Star selections over his 19-year major league career.
The Panama native finished his career hitting .328/.393/.429 with 92 home runs, 1,015 RBI and 353 stolen bases in 2,469 games.
In 834 career games with the Angels, Carew hit .314/.393/.392 with 18 home runs, 282 RBI and 82 stolen bases. Six of the infielder's All-Star selections came while he was a member of the Halos.
It's unclear why the Angels wouldn't want Carew involved with the club, and considering they haven't made the postseason since 2014, it might be time to give him some sort of role.
It's been a disappointing season for the Halos, who fired manager Joe Maddon in June and replaced him with Phil Nevin in the interim. The club is fourth in the AL West with a 52-70 record and is on pace to miss the playoffs for the eighth straight season.
Shohei Ohtani Exits Angels vs. Tigers Because of Stomach Virus
Aug 21, 2022
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MAY 02: Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Angels warms up before the game against the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on May 02, 2022 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
The Los Angeles Angels announced star Shohei Ohtani left Sunday's game against the Detroit Tigers with a stomach virus.
He pitched the first four innings, allowing three earned runs. He was also the designated hitter, and Kurt Suzuki replaced him in the No. 3 spot in the lineup.
Ohtani fully delivered on his promise as a two-way player in 2021. He hit 46 home runs and slugged .592 while going 9-2 and posting a 3.18 ERA and a 3.52 FIP in 23 starts.
Even though the Angels lost 85 games and missed the playoffs for the seventh straight season, Ohtani was honored as the American League MVP.
The 28-year-old's MVP defense hit a snag early into the 2022 campaign as he suffered a minor groin injury that forced him to exit a 6-5 win over the Chicago White Sox on May 1.
Angels trainer Mike Frostad downplayed the severity of the situation, though:
Playoff expansion opened the door a bit wider for Los Angeles to snap its postseason drought. Following a sustained slide that resulted in the ouster of manager Joe Maddon, the team has only fallen further out of contention.
Angels fans know all too well the limits of one star player toward his team's overall success. Mike Trout is the greatest talent of his generation yet has one playoff appearance to this point in his career.
The playoffs will not happen this year either, but Ohtani's absence will only make winning games more difficult as the team plays out the string.