Preview/Prediction

Welcome back to TGIFighting, where we talk to top fighters, preview the weekend's combat sports action and make crotchety observations about the MMA news of the day. Ready? Let's go!

     

B/R Exclusive: The Next Khabib? Islam Makhachev Has Sights on Lightweight Division 

Islam Makhachev isn't quite sure how many rounds he's sparred with Khabib Nurmadomedov, but he's got a rough estimate. 

"More than a thousand."

Simply put, Makhachev (19-1) is the latest monster to emerge from Russia's Dagestan region. The 29-year-old has long been favorably compared with teammate and mentor Nurmagomedov (29-0), who happens to be every normal person's pick for the best lightweight in MMA history.

With Nurmagomedov now retired, it's Makhachev's time to shine. This Saturday marks his coming-out party as he appears in his first UFC main event, where he'll take on heavy underdog Thiago Moises (15-4) in the culminating bout of UFC on ESPN 26.

"This is a big step in my career because it's a main event, five rounds," the soft-spoken Makhachev told me in an exclusive interview with Bleacher Report. "All the attention is gonna be on me, and I can show my skills. Moises beat some top guys. He has good striking, good jiu-jitsu. But I am going to show my skills."

If it bothers him to live in Nurmagomedov's shadow, he doesn't let on. It doesn't come as a surprise that they both have similar, grappling-oriented styles that involve sadistically breaking down an opponent's will to fight. Of his 19 wins, 11 have come by stoppage, with eight by submission.

Although Nurmagomedov's standup was a little more polished, Makhachev says it doesn't make much difference because, well, people can't seem to stop his ground game.

"It's normal, because all my life I'm training with him," he said. "We both like to pressure our opponents. We have the same style. ... My striking is good, but I have wrestling, I know. I have wrestling more than everybody. So I just choose the easy way, you know?"  

The similarities are further explained by the fact that both men trained under Nurmagomedov's father, Abdulmanap, who died last year because of complications related to COVID-19.  

"I think about him all the time," Makhachev said. "He always said I was going to be champion." 

It's not an abstraction or empty motivational sloganeering. Accordingly, Makhachev has a concrete blueprint. He's sharply aware of his place in the division and on the official UFC lightweight rankings, and he has an ambitious but realistic plan to get to the top of this crowded weight class—assuming he can take care of business.

"Now I am No. 9, but I think maybe after this fight I am gonna be like eight, seven," he said. "After that I think two more fights, and then in 2022 I fight for the title."

Makhachev is watching the top of the division closely, including last weekend's calamitous main event at UFC 264 between Conor McGregor (22-6) and Dustin Poirier (28-6, 1 NC), which ended with a doctor's stoppage TKO after McGregor broke his leg under decidely odd circumstances.

Nurmagomedov, who defeated McGregor in 2018 and Poirier in 2019, has been lobbing verbal grenades at McGregor ever since (more on that below). Makhachev doesn't join in exactly, but he doesn't object, either.

"Honestly, I don't like Conor too much," he continued. "Because he is a bad person, you know? It was very bad, what he said before the fight, about [Poirier's] family, about Poirier, about the fight."

If everything goes according to plan, and Makhachev proves equal to the hype, he may well get a shot at McGregor down the road. It all starts Saturday with the biggest fight of Makhachev's career.

     

Conor's "Behind the Music" Nadir Continues

If you're too young to remember Behind the Music, the VH1 docudrama's formula was pretty simple: band is really good, band gets famous, fame goes to their heads, they spin out of control, redemption story ensues.

Guess what segment we're on with the Conor McGregor episode.

After suffering perhaps the most ironic broken leg in the history of that particular injury, McGregor now faces at least six months on the shelf as UFC 264 opponent Dustin Poirier moves on with a TKO by doctor's stoppage and eyes a megawatt dance later this year or early next with lightweight champ Charles Oliveira (31-8, 1 NC).

Meanwhile, the MMA world is nowhere near finished piling on McGregor, be it for the loss or the incessant trash talk that sometimes gets a little too personal. And Team McGregor is not done firing back—far from it. Let's take a little walk back over the last week, shall we? It's a veritable cavalcade of haterade. 

- Tuesday: Former UFC bantamweight champ and current broadcaster Dominick Cruz wondered how McGregor can grow if he can't accept defeat. 

- Sunday, Monday and Tuesday: Nurmagomedov absolutely hammered the former double champ. He called McGregor "evil," and told ESPN's Brett Okamoto the Irishman is both a "bag of s--t" and "finished." He also said Poirier would beat him 100 times out of 100. This is what we in journalism circles refer to as cold-blooded. But after McGregor's sore loserdom, it's hard to argue he didn't put this target on his own back.

- Tuesday: WWE legend Kurt Angle added some levity to the proceedings, saying McGregor's gruesome leg break was nary a big deal.

- Tuesday: Speaking to W2W (h/t Fox Sports), McGregor coach John Kavanagh questioned broadcaster Joe Rogan's decision to interview McGregor in the cage, even as medical personnel were attempting to stabilize the leg.

- Wednesday: YouTuber Jake Paul entered the fray, calling McGregor a "piece of s--t" when speaking to TMZ and adding McGregor has "lost the sauce" in an interview with Real 92.3 LA's Big Boy's Neighborhood (h/t Hypebeast).

Dang.

If McGregor's career arc unfolds true to cliche, this is the part where he looks inward, realizes it's up to him and him alone, mends his fences and faults, recovers that lost spark and rises like a phoenix from the ashes to smite all his doubters. That's the happy version, anyway.

       

Tyron Woodley vs Jake Paul Fight Date Announced 

Are you a diehard MMA fan looking for hardcore MMA news? This is your section. Just kidding, this is where we talk about YouTube celebrities.

If you're looking for a veneer of seriousness, consider the side bet these two created, whereby the loser gets "I Love [Winner's Name]" tattooed on their body. Presumably, they meant the permanent kind. No word on font.

I can't see Woodley doing this, even if he loses. Someone review the contract carefully so he can't wriggle out through a loophole. 

     

Congrats to Lauren Murphy

Lauren Murphy (15-4) has scrapped and clawed her way to the top of the women's flyweight division. Her style isn't always pretty, but "Lucky" Lauren is tough as nails and knows how to grind out wins. 

She's on a five-fight win streak, which paid off this week when the UFC announced that the 37-year-old fan favorite will tangle with seemingly unbeatable champion Valentina Shevchenko (21-3), who is rapidly running out of challengers in the division. 

Will Murphy give her a solid knock? In all candor, it seems unlikely given the well-rounded game and pure firepower Valentina brings to the table. But just by virtue of getting here after 11 fights and seven years in the UFC, Murphy has already won. 

      

Stone Cold Lead Pipe Lock of the Week

Record to date: 14-4

Makhachev is a massive -850 favorite to handle Moises, per DraftKings. That's too big to be fun, even for this conservative betting space. Let's instead look elsewhere on the main card, where fast-rising Mateusz Gamrot (18-1, 1 NC) is a -210 favorite to defeat Jeremy Stephens (28-18, 1 NC). Stephens is the bigger name, but he's winless in his last five contests.

Gamrot is 1-1 but made good on his potential in his last bout, where he knocked out a solid opponent in Scott Holtzman (14-5) in the second round. Gamrot doesn't even have a Wikipedia page. That changes after Saturday. Lock it in.

The future stars of Major League Baseball will learn their fate Sunday night when the first round of the 2021 MLB draft commences.

This year's draft will be held in Denver in conjunction with the MLB All-Star festivities, making it an even bigger event than usual.

While the 20-round draft will run through Tuesday, most of the top prospects will come off the board Sunday night as part of the 29-pick first round.

Here is a full rundown of predictions for each of the 29 first-round picks, along with a closer look at some of the prospects who figure to hear their names called quite early in the night by MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred.

      

MLB 2021 First-Round Mock Draft

1. Pittsburgh Pirates: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (California)
2. Texas Rangers: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
3. Detroit Tigers: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Texas)
4. Boston Red Sox: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
5. Baltimore Orioles: Kahlil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (North Carolina)
6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (Oklahoma)
7. Kansas City Royals: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
8. Colorado Rockies: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (Georgia)
9. Los Angeles Angels: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
10. New York Mets: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
11. Washington Nationals: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
12. Seattle Mariners: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
13. Philadelphia Phillies: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (Pennsylvania)
14. San Francisco Giants: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
15. Milwaukee Brewers: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami Ohio
16. Miami Marlins: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (Georgia)
17. Cincinnati Reds: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian Academy (Florida)
18. St. Louis Cardinals: Bubba Chandler, RHP/SS, North Oconee HS (Georgia)
19. Toronto Blue Jays: Anthony Solometo, LHP, Bishop Eustace Prep (New Jersey)
20. New York Yankees: Joe Mack, C, Williamsville East HS (New York)
21. Chicago Cubs: Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State
22. Chicago White Sox: Jud Fabian, OF, Florida
23. Cleveland: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss
24. Atlanta Braves: Colson Montgomery, 3B, Southridge HS (Indiana)
25. Oakland Athletics: Michael McGreevy, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
26. Minnesota Twins: Will Taylor, OF, Dutch Fork HS (South Carolina)
27. San Diego Padres: Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina
28. Tampa Bay Rays: Chase Petty, RHP, Mainland HS (New Jersey)
29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Ryan Cusick, RHP, Wake Forest

            

Breaking Down Top Projected Picks

Marcelo Mayer

The Pittsburgh Pirates have the look of a team that is years away from contention, and as such, they can afford to take a chance on perhaps the highest-upside player in the entire draft at No. 1 overall.

Shortstop Marcelo Mayer is just 18 years of age, but the California high schooler has everything teams tend to look for in a cornerstone player.

In addition to being a solid defender, Mayer has a big bat and plenty of raw power that could result in him becoming a home run hitter at the big league level.

Baseball America provided a look at Mayer's sweet swing and the easy power he possesses to all fields:

Marcelo Mayer is headed to the Pirates No. 1 overall in our latest mock.

If that happens?

That'd make @EHSBALL the first high school EVER with two No. 1 picks (Adrian Gonzalez, 2000).

Mock: https://t.co/WW30io8ozD pic.twitter.com/bfHZoDYo0h

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) July 1, 2021

Meanwhile, MLB Network analyst Harold Reynolds compared Mayer and his offensive abilities to Atlanta Braves legend Chipper Jones:

Harold sees shades of Hall of Famer @RealCJ10 in #1 @MLBDraft prospect Marcelo Mayer! pic.twitter.com/FrkfDb0dSu

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) July 5, 2021

Jones is a Hall of Fame third baseman who was an eight-time All-Star, one-time National League MVP and one-time World Series champion.

Widely regarded as one of the greatest switch-hitters in MLB history, Jones hit .303 with 468 home runs and 1,623 RBI for his career.

Mayer is a lefty-hitting shortstop rather than a switch-hitting third baseman, but the size and power are undoubtedly there, and he has a chance to be the superstar player the Pirates desperately need if they take him first overall.

          

Jack Leiter

The Texas Rangers have lost some talented and accomplished starting pitchers via free agency and trade over the past couple of seasons, including Lance Lynn, Mike Minor and Corey Kluber.

Nobody selected in the 2021 MLB draft will be able to step in and help immediately at the big league level, but Vanderbilt ace Jack Leiter may be the most MLB-ready pitcher in the entire class.

Leiter, who is the 21-year-old son of three-time World Series-winning and two-time MLB All-Star pitcher Al Leiter, is entering the draft on the heels of a remarkable season at Vandy.

In 18 starts this season, Leiter went 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. He also compiled an impressive 179 strikeouts in just 110 innings.

The 6'1" righty possesses electric stuff, especially when it comes to his breaking pitches, as seen in these videos courtesy of the Rob Friedman, the Pitching Ninja:

Jack Leiter, Disgusting 81mph Breaking Ball. 🤮 pic.twitter.com/0KWfsgYP27

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 29, 2021

Jack Leiter, Nasty 77mph Curveball. 😨 pic.twitter.com/IpIScAvpSd

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 29, 2021

It seems likely that the top of the draft will largely be populated by high school players because of their upside, but passing up a talent like Leiter would likely be tough for Texas to do.

An ace pitcher could go a long way toward getting the Rangers back in the playoff conversation in the coming years, and Leiter undoubtedly has the potential to be precisely that.

Given what he accomplished at Vanderbilt and his pedigree as the son of a successful MLB pitcher, Leiter checks all the boxes to be one of the top selections in the 2021 draft.

        

Jordan Lawlar

Like Mayer, Jordan Lawlar is a toolsy high school shortstop who likely won't have to wait long before learning his landing spot Sunday.

The 6'2" Lawlar is a speedster with plus fielding skills and the ability to hit for a high average, as evidenced by his production at Jesuit Dallas in 2021.

During his senior season, Lawlar hit .412 with six home runs and 32 stolen bases on 32 attempts. He also showed great patience, walking 27 times despite having just 97 at-bats.

The one area in which Lawlar is lagging behind Mayer is clearly in the power department, but Baseball America still ranked him as the top player in the 2021 draft despite his power deficiency:

If Jordan Lawlar's power catches up?

He has the potential to be a regular all-star.

Lawlar is the top-ranked prospect in the BA 500.

Full scouting report: https://t.co/18ugc09Hdj pic.twitter.com/9Qso1D9U7E

— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) July 1, 2021

Baseball America noted that the sky is the limit for Lawlar if he is able to develop more power as time goes one, and there is reason to believe he can given his frame and measurables.

The Detroit Tigers own the No. 3 overall pick in the MLB draft, and they have a massive need for quality, high-ceiling hitters in their pipeline.

Much like the Pirates, it is going to take some time before the Tigers are in the playoff mix, and Lawlar is the type of player who could help lead the charge in the same vein as Mayer.

It may tempt the Tigers to take a soon-to-be-MLB-ready arm like Vanderbilt's Kumar Rocker, but given some of the young pitching talent they already have, going for the home run pick of Lawlar makes the most sense.

We're just past the halfway mark of the 2021 MLB season and a few days from the All-Star break. Fans are back in ballparks, and the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders.

This season feels like a victory in and of itself considering the 60-game season in 2021. However, the season has been marred by controversy. Between sticky stuff, a rise in injuries and the deeply rooted cultural issues that have been exposed, it's been hard to feel too great about baseball at times.

Some of the narratives can be put in the past as we head into the second half. Let's take a look at some of the biggest stories of the first half to try to preview the second, as well as some of the biggest questions that must be answered throughout the summer and fall.

         

Biggest Surprises

Surprising Trends: Sticky Stuff, Injuries, 7 No-Hitters

Maybe there is a correlation between all three of these trends: We know that doctoring baseballs increases the spin rate and makes pitches more difficult to track, so hitters are swinging out of their shoes trying to connect. Now that the league has cracked down on foreign substances, pitchers are trying to grip the ball differently, and some, like Tampa Bay Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, think this is contributing to a rise in injuries, especially soft tissue injuries.

The league was embarrassed when players and managers so brazenly made the pitch-doctoring secret public. St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Shildt went scorched earth after Giovanny Gallegos was told to remove his hat during a game in May. Players also went to the media to express their displeasure at how widespread the cheating was.

Commissioner Rob Manfred was forced to take action, but he overreacted by banning sunscreen and enforcing the ridiculous umpire checks. The commissioner instituted this policy after two months of data collection, which included balls checked by a third party, but he also did so just as the issue hit a peak.

The 2021 league batting average has hovered around .240 this season. Strikeouts are also up this season, but there has been a nearly year-over-year increase in whiffs for more than a decade as hitters try to exploit things like launch angles to hit home runs. It's a different game right now, and the entertainment value has suffered.

      

Surprising Teams: Giants, Red Sox, Twins

"Let the old guys play" has become the mantra for the San Francisco Giants, as an over-30 core of Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford—the only three players left from the World Series dynasty days—as well as Donovan Solano, Mike Yastrzemski and Kevin Gausman have led a resurgence by the Bay. The average age of the Giants this year is 29.7, but that hasn't slowed the team down. The Giants lead the NL West, ahead of the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers, and have been in first place for most of the season.

Team president Farhan Zaidi and general manager Scott Harris have done a remarkable job bolstering the pitching staff and improving the prospect pool after the previous regime was forced to part with a number of prospects with the team in win-now mode from 2010 to 2016. That is why the trade deadline is so intriguing. The Brandons are in the final year of their contracts, but parting with them now would mean the front office doesn't believe this iteration of the Giants can win. The club is ahead of schedule on the rebuild, and bringing in prospects at the deadline instead of major league reinforcements would lead to some distrust from the team.

There were no real expectations for the Red Sox at the start of the season, and maybe that was a good thing. Alex Cora returned, and the team started playing entertaining baseball. The Red Sox have the third-best OPS, and they run the bases well. Their defense might not be the flashiest or the most staunch, but they are proficient enough. Their starting pitching has been streaky, and this could be the area the club looks to shore up at the deadline. They have a great bullpen that prominently features two New York Yankees castoffs in Adam Ottavino and Garrett Whitlock, but an overreliance on the bullpen in the summer could hurt in October.

The Red Sox lead the Rays by 2.5 games, and the Toronto Blue Jays and Yankees are both nine games behind.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins have been surprisingly bad. Byron Buxton is on the injured list for a second time this season, but the offense hasn't been the problem. The starting pitchers aren't going deep into games, and the relievers can't hold runners—the Twins have an 8.81 ERA with runners on base.

They were one of the favorites to come out of the AL Central, but now they may have to trade someone like starting pitcher Jose Berrios to get something out of the season.

       

Biggest Questions

Questionable Storylines: Rise in Injuries, Awards Race, Trade Deadline

Some of baseball's biggest stars have suffered soft tissue injuries: Jack Flaherty, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Mike Trout are just a few.

USA Today's Gabe Lacques recently consulted with Conte Sport Performance Therapy to find out just how much of a rise in injuries we are seeing this season. Through May, there was a 160 percent increase in soft tissue injuries from 2019. Teams often use the 10-day injured list as a way to manage the roster. A player who is banged up and needs a few days off might go on the IL so another player can be called up in his place and the team won't have to play shorthanded.

But the type of soft tissue and muscle injuries we're seeing—like oblique strains and UCL tears—have increased.

The short season may have something to do with it, as we knew there would be aftereffects from 2020. Players who were unable to play last season are now trying to make up their at-bats and their innings, but there may be other factors as well since these injuries do tend to be overuse injuries, and throwing and hitting baseballs with such force causes stress on certain joints. Whether it's the ball, the pandemic or just certain ways today's game is played, the injury increase will need to be studied.

The AL MVP race is exceptionally intriguing this year, and Trout's calf strain has opened the door for more of a competition. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., at only 22 years old, has a legitimate chance to win the award, just like his dad did in 2004. He has the highest OPS in baseball (1.110), and he's been among the top offensive performers all season.

But Trout's teammate Shohei Ohtani is doing things we have never seen as a two-way player. He leads the league with 33 home runs and is 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA on the mound. He's been the Halos' best starting pitcher. He can defend when he does play in the outfield, and he's a threat to run on the basepaths. He's the most exciting player in a generation.

In the NL, Jacob deGrom might have a case at MVP and Cy Young. It's hard to argue that anyone means more to his team than deGrom does to the Mets.

There is a precedent set since Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw won both awards in 2014.

Speaking of Kershaw, the Dodgers have a hole in their rotation with him on the IL. The club received good news with a clean MRI on Friday, noting his elbow was just sore and that he could return after the All-Star break, but his absence exposes their lack of depth.

Major League Baseball and the MLBPA agreed to extend Bauer's administrative leave by another seven days, and there may be another extension as MLB and the Pasadena Police Department investigate allegations of sexual assault. Through his agents, Bauer has denied all allegations.

Los Angeles could be in the market for starting pitching at the July 31 trade deadline. Some of the top positional targets include Texas Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo, Colorado Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron and shortstop Trevor Story, and Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant.

A couple of the top pitchers on the market include Rangers right-hander Kyle Gibson and Atlanta Braves left-handed reliever Drew Smyly.

        

Questionable Teams: Yankees, Braves, Cardinals

The Yankees were World Series favorites behind only the Dodgers, but they've been inconsistent and disappointing. They have a lineup full of heavy hitters, but they're stiff on the bases, aren't great defensively and have little starting pitching depth outside of Gerrit Cole. Their bullpen is good but has been overtaxed at times.

General manager Brian Cashman has been looking for trade partners, but nothing has materialized. The AL East is deep, and the Yankees are in danger of missing the playoffs. Even the Seattle Mariners are ahead of New York in the AL wild-card standings. Something needs to change, and soon.

The Braves have to decide what they want to do, and selling at the deadline would probably be the smartest bet with the team playing uninspired baseball. Atlanta may not need a full rebuild, but a reset of sorts might help the Braves get back to the playoffs as soon as next season.

The Cardinals' pitching depth has taken a hit with Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Daniel Ponce de Leon injured. St. Louis is nine games behind the San Diego Padres in the NL wild-card race and 9.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central.