Preview/Prediction

Welcome back to TGIFighting, where we talk to top fighters, preview the weekend's combat sports action and make crotchety observations about the combat sports news of the day. Ready? Let's proceed.

                         

The fight week for UFC 266 has been one for the books. But this book has some dark chapters.

On the all-time Mount Rushmore of MMA drama kings, you've got Conor McGregor, Nick Diaz and two as-yet-unfilled spots. In the case of UFC 266, which goes down Saturday in Las Vegas, the drama is focused halfway down the main card, where Robbie Lawler (28-15 [1 NC]) is looking to get off a four-fight losing skid in a rematch against the inimitable Diaz (26-9 [2 NC]), who hasn't competed in more than six years.

Mercurial as ever at age 38, Diaz has thrown curveball after curveball, leaving a bewildered Lawler no choice but to take the road bumps in stride. For example, Team Diaz's demand early this week that the bout take place up at middleweight instead of welterweight prompted a lukewarm "it is what it is" from Lawler. 

With all this Diaz drama, it can be easy to forget that this fight carries huge stakes for Lawler, the former welterweight champion who is now 39 years old. The famously cool-headed headhunter has 20 knockout wins to his name, but last won a fight in 2017.

Here are five questions and answers from an exclusive conversation I had with Lawler last week. He was in a slightly more talkative mood for this one, weighing in on a variety of topics, fighting and non-fighting alike.     

                       

When the UFC called you about a rematch with Nick Diaz, what was your first reaction?

Lawler: Honestly, I was like, all right, let's go. I mean, it's pretty simple. Obviously he's a big name; the fans are more excited than I am for sure.

But I'm happy the fans are excited. They're excited to see two fighters get in there and go to battle. We're both fighters. That's who he is and that's who I am. He comes to fight, and when push comes to shove that's what we do.

     

Is there any one performance you think was particularly special among all your wins?

Lawler: Obviously the Rory MacDonald [22-8-1] fight was pretty good. [Note: Lawler defended his title in 2015 with a fifth-round TKO of MacDonald in a bout widely considered one of the best in UFC history.]

But to me the Bobby Voelker [33-14] fight in 2013 is up there. It was my second fight back in the UFC after competing in Strikeforce. I just felt like it was my coming-out party for the UFC, and I was clicking on all cylinders that day.

     

Your first bout with Diaz came all the way back in 2004. How have you changed over the years from a lifestyle perspective to evolve yourself over the course of such a long career?

Lawler: I'm always evolving, always trying to stay young. Always trying to eat better. You're always trying to do different things. But back in 2004 I fought with a little bit more emotion, and I wasn't so seasoned or technical in my skills.

As far as lifestyle, I've had to change my diet to fight at the highest level. I'd say one of the main things is breathing and meditation. It's breathing exercises and just focusing on what you want and being positive. It could be sitting there not thinking anything, just relaxing and feeling your body. I get extra massages, extra stretching.

     

What do you like to do after you've unplugged from fighting?

Lawler: I like to watch soccer with my son. He's 11 and his name is Glenn. What we've been doing lately is having Nerf wars. We watch The Office, watch movies. We like Marvel movies, we watch a lot of Marvel movies. We keep going back and watching them in order again and again.

     

Would you encourage him to follow in your footsteps and be a fighter?

Lawler: That's something that everyone has to choose for themselves. But yeah, if that's what he chooses, that's what he chooses. I want to give him all the possibilities to be great. Anything I can give him to make him good at whatever he wants to do. But fighting or whatever you want to do in life, that's something you have to choose for yourself. No one else gets a say in that, I don't think.

     

Nick Diaz: A Troubled Saga Continues

It's not cute anymore.

There was a time when Nick Diaz was endlessly entertaining, both in and out of the cage. In his prime, he was one of the best quotes in UFC history. And his brash fighting style, which included outlandish taunting and trash talk while in the heat of battle, made him must-see viewing.

But at a shopworn 38 years old and his last victory coming in 2011, the reclusive and erratic Diaz is not at the top of his game at UFC 266.

First, there was the mysterious weight-class change. That's not something fighters do when they're comfortable in their own skin. It's a testament to Diaz's popularity that UFC brass let him get away with it.

Then on Wednesday, Diaz no-showed media day, arriving hours after the allotted time and even then failing to meet the press.  

Diaz did have time to sit down with ESPN—not a shock, as it's the UFC's broadcast partner—where he opened up about not having any confidence (or, dare I say, courage) going into the fight.

"I always feel like I'm going to get trashed out there," he said. "Every fight I've ever done. 'How do you feel against Robbie Lawler?' I feel like I'm going to get the s--t beat out of me. … This should not happen. Whoever set this up is an idiot. I don't know why I'm doing this. I don't know why this happened."

Diaz tried to walk back those comments a bit at Thursday's news conference—he made it!—where he implied the remarks had been taken out of context. At least that's what I think he was trying to say.

"Either way, when I get somebody in front of me, I seem to be right back," Diaz said. "I've always trained with the best and I've always held my own with the best. ... I'm not so used to this much heat, to this much expectation."

Nick Diaz responds to concerns about his wellbeing after this week's ESPN interview diving into his mindset.#UFC266 | Full video: https://t.co/of8jnYBNpF pic.twitter.com/nHcayERK9o

— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) September 23, 2021

Fair enough, I guess. He also said he'd keep fighting after Saturday "especially if I get my ass whupped." Lots to unpack there, but that's a task for another day.

In Wednesday's ESPN interview, Diaz called out welterweight champ Kamaru Usman (19-1), maybe the best fighter in the world today and one who on paper is a terrible matchup for Diaz. Still, Diaz said he'd "beat the s--t" out of the champ. If he's worried about Lawler, why wouldn't he see Usman as a downright existential threat? I mean, he is. Who knows? As money talks, there's at least a reasonably hypothetical chance this could actually and sadly happen.

This isn't the first time in recent history Diaz's mindset has been questioned—including by Diaz himself. Speaking in 2019 to Ariel Helwani while he was with ESPN, Diaz's rambling, slurring interview, which ended early when Diaz walked off the set, touched off a wave of worry in the Twittersphere.

So, in short, everyone wants Diaz to do well and be his usual colorful self, even as the chances of that happening sink deeper and deeper into the Swamp of Sadness. If Diaz can win Saturday—or even fight a respectable fight—he'd do so against an ever-stiffening headwind.

     

Stone-Cold Lead Pipe Lock of the Week 

Looks like it's all Diaz-Lawler this week here at TGIFighting. So why not cap it off by naming Lawler the favorite in Saturday evening's co-co-main event? I'll certainly be taking the moneyline on Lawler, who seems to have an advantage off paper as well as on.

Lawler is a -140 favorite on DraftKings to handle Diaz; with everything going on this fight week and Diaz fighting off massive amounts of ring rust besides, there's plenty of value in this pick. If you're really discouraged by Diaz, go for the finish as well. Lock it in.

     

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After defeating the Los Angeles Sparks on Sunday night to knock L.A. out of the playoffs and ensure the New York Liberty qualified for the postseason, Dallas Wings head coach Vickie Johnson reminded reporters what to expect next. 

"Playoffs is a different season," she said. "Because one thing about our team is you don't know which team you're going to get. If you mess around and get the good team, it's dangerous." 

All eight teams start at 0-0. But right now, the Aces and the Sun are awarded two off games, having clinched the coveted double-byes. Connecticut and Las Vegas don't have to survive single-elimination because they won't have to compete in it. But for seeds three through eight, there's no room for error. Until September 26, it's lose and you're done. 

New York finished its regular season at home on a high note, defeating former franchise player Tina Charles and the Washington Mystics by double-teaming Charles to deny her space to work in the paint and by shooting over 51 percent from the field.

For both the Liberty and Wings to move past their opponents in the Mercury and the Sky, respectively, they'll have to play consistent defense and take care of the ball. It will be a tall order for two of the youngest teams in the league going up against two rosters with some of the most experienced veterans in the league in the Mercury's Diana Taurasi, Brittney Griner and Skylar Diggins-Smith, and the Sky's Candace Parker, Courtney Vandersloot and Allie Quigley. 

But even if the Wings and Liberty shock #WNBATwitter and advance, taller tasks lie ahead. Facing off against and beating the disciplined Lynx or possibly a Breanna Stewart-less (more on this later) Storm will only happen by playing hard, executing defensively and with experienced veterans leading the way. 

         

No. 7 Dallas Wings vs. No. 6 Chicago Sky

Big Question: Can Candace Parker Energize the Sky into the 2nd round?  

The matchup that matters: Copper vs. Ogunbowale: whoever can keep the other away from the rim best will swing the game. 

Prediction: The Sky win by 10 points through sharper ball movement and better defensive intensity than Dallas. 

        

The Chicago Sky have been here before. The Dallas Wings have not. However, the biggest question is whether Candace Parker can provide the Sky with what they've been missing the last two years.

After two straight playoff appearances that have ended in the first round, the Sky will be looking to make it third-time lucky in the first-round single-elimination game. On Monday, Courtney Vandersloot noted she believes Parker gives the Sky the best opportunity to finally make it to the later stages of the postseason. She asserts that Parker's their missing piece, and this is the stage to prove it. 

After finishing the season an inconsistent 1-2 and posting a league-worst rebounding percentage of 43.5 and the second-worst net rating of -12.6 in the final three games, the playoffs offer an opportunity to start from scratch. 

And while the Wings had the upper hand during the regular season, defeating the Sky twice out of three meetings, the key to the Sky moving on will be focusing on themselves rather than the questionable calls from the officials. In previous meetings against the Wings, head coach James Wade believed foul calls favored Dallas. He also thought the Wings would exaggerate movements on offense when his team was playing aggressively on defense.   

"Our job is to go out there and play," Wade said. "And, you know, and we just have to not worry about we have to control the things we can control. The only thing we can control is us."

For the Wings, Arike Ogunbowale must continue the growth she displayed in Dallas' win against the Sparks. She was more selfless with the ball, dishing three assists and shooting only 11 shots in the 87-84 win. 

          

No. 8 New York Liberty vs. No. 5 Phoenix Mercury

Big Question: Does a Rivalry Emerge in Phoenix? 

The matchup that matters: Jazmine Jones getting her revenge on Skylar Diggins-Smith. 

Prediction: The Mercury barely escape the Liberty, and while New York will be competitive, Phoenix will win a nail-biter that further cements one of the league's up-and-coming rivalries. 

        

Liberty coach Walt Hopkins often speaks at length about this team's playing identity, which offensively means shooting threes in droves but also defending the three-point line. As Howard Megdal pointed out for FiveThirtyEight, the Liberty gave up too many open threes during their eight-game losing streak in the regular season. That's not their defensive identity, which aims to force shooters into long-contested twos. 

The Mercury's identity is playing through their veteran Big Three, with support from Brianna Turner and Sophie Cunningham. Even with Diana Taurasi expected to play Thursday, the three-time WNBA champion still hasn't practiced with her team. If Taurasi plays with an ankle that isn't 100 percent, the Mercury will have to play hard and ride the intensity of their other star guard, Skylar Diggins-Smith.

The Liberty aren't the same team they were when the Mercury dominated them in August. Jazmine Jones will have some juice after sitting out one of those regular-season games, and the Liberty's secret weapon and traffic controller, Sami Whitcomb, will be available after she missed the previous two matchups with an ankle sprain.

Other than Natasha Howard, the Liberty are undersized, and they have little experience in the postseason aside from Howard and Whitcomb. Hopkins stressed that no matter how much success Griner has against them Thursday night, the Liberty cannot give up their defensive principles. 

"It's important not to overreact," he said Monday. "BG in one of those games [against the Liberty] had 13 points and yes there was some good passing and things like that, but it's something we're still trying to find that balance of being hyper-reactive to a really great player. To some extent they're gonna find ways to score, so try not to compromise your defense, you try to keep them guessing."

         

What Lies Ahead in Round 2?

Let's start out with what we know. Whether the Wings or Sky advance, the Minnesota Lynx, one of the most disciplined teams in the league, will be waiting for them. Sun head coach Curt Miller explained this in mid-August, noting he believed that the Lynx and his team were "the hardest-playing teams in the league."

There's a trickle-down effect in Minnesota, starting from its head coach, Cheryl Reeve, who has a glass ceiling of a team culture. Not a lot breaks it. And as Layshia Clarendon (who goes by they, she and he pronouns) noted after the Lynx's win against the Mystics on Sunday, Reeve is capable of making adjustments and getting her players to execute said changes. Clarendon explained that in the playoffs, that ability is integral.

"We have one of the best f--king coaches in the game of basketball that has the ability to make adjustments," they said. "And that's something, when you get into the playoffs, that you have to be able to do at halftime, you have to be able to do in the game, and I don't know if there's anyone better than Cheryl Reeve."

Speaking of Clarendon, he will be available for the Lynx's playoff run after coming off a right fibula injury. On Sunday against the Mystics, she played a physical 24.7 minutes, especially on defense. For the Lynx, having their top floor general healthy enough couldn't come at a better time. 

What isn't as certain, however, is what lies ahead for the Seattle Storm. As of now, the defending champs aren't sure if Breanna Stewart will be good to go for their single-elimination game against the higher seed that advances from the first round Sunday.

As of Monday, head coach Noelle Quinn said Stewart hasn't practiced yet and is still rehabbing from her foot injury. She'll be reevaluated Friday, and if she can practice before Sunday, her probability to play would shoot way up.

But the Storm aren't waiting for Stewie; they are trying to get better without her. Look for the Storm to use more of Mercedes Russell and Ezi Magbegor together, as they did against the Mercury in their season finale. Assistant coach Gary Kloppenburg told The Next's Em Adler that the defending champs are going to need Magbegor and Russell to step up.

"I mean, she knows our system so well, so you know I thought it [was] obviously difficult to lose [Stewart] defensively as well as offensively, but I feel like I think we can still impact these teams," he said. "We just have less depth, we have just one less rotation up front, so I think it's a lot on Ezi and Cedes to stay out of foul trouble."