Preview/Prediction

We are running out of games, and the reality is starting to set in. 

The good news, of course, is that we still have the College Football Playoff and a slew of fascinating, meaningful bowl games to play. But time is running out, and we cannot (and will not) waste the opportunity.  

For those of us who love picking football games against the spread, the next week offers up the most delightful lineup of football games we'll get all year. Given the uncertainty surrounding these matchups, it's also one of the more challenging times to sort through lines. And I love the challenge. 

After delivering Part 1 and Part 2 of Locks of the Week in the lead-up to this final installment, Part 3 focuses on games on or after Wednesday, December 29. 

Yes, that includes the College Football Playoff and New Year's Six bowls.  

So, let's get after it. More winners ahoy. 

             

Outback Bowl: Arkansas (-1) vs. Penn State 

Amid a myriad of fascinating football tussles, this game remains slightly underrated. Sure, the two teams have nine combined losses, but I am still all about the Outback Bowl. 

And Arkansas is indeed the play. 

The Hogs are about as seasoned as any team in the sport. They played Alabama, Georgia, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and others—finishing the regular season 7-3-1 against the spread. They are balanced, and they have responded well in key matchups under head coach Sam Pittman. I would expect nothing different here. 

Penn State has also played a difficult schedule in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions closed out the regular season by losing five of the final seven games. Granted, the matchups were tough and oftentimes close.

The losses of safety Jaquan Brisker and wide receiver Jahan Dotson, both standouts for Penn State who opted out, are also massive.

Hogs win one of the best games of the bowl season.

   

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State (+2.5) vs. Notre Dame 

The theme of this game is somewhat simple: defensive coordinators.  

For Notre Dame, it made its defensive coordinator the new head coach. Marcus Freeman quickly replaced Brian Kelly after he left for LSU. Although it's hard to predict how a team will react in a situation like this, from afar it feels like the transition went as smoothly as possible.

Oklahoma State, meanwhile, said farewell to defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Under Knowles, the Pokes built one of the best defenses in CFB. His departure is certainly an element to consider, although it's one I believe Oklahoma State can overcome.  

The biggest losses in this game are that of Kyren Williams and Kyle Hamilton. Notre Dame's leading rusher and all-world safety opted out of the game, which feels significant given how difficult points will be to come by.

As long as OK State cleans up the turnovers—something that plagued the team in the Big 12 Championship Game—it should be in for a much better effort. 

Pokes cover. Pokes win. 

   

Citrus Bowl: Kentucky vs. Iowa (Under 44) 

This is not going to be a pleasant football game. 

Well, let me rephrase. If you love punting, sputtering offenses and more punting, this is going to be a delightful football game. If you don't love that, well, it's still football. 

Iowa's offensive issues are well established by now. The Hawkeyes finished the regular season with the nation's No. 97 scoring offense. Oh, and running back Tyler Goodson, the team's most explosive player, opted out of the bowl game for the NFL. 

Iowa's defense is a different story. The Hawkeyes finished the year with the nation's No. 14-ranked scoring defense despite being blown out by Michigan in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Kentucky, while not as statistically dominant, had a great year defensively. The Wildcats finished with the nation's No. 31-ranked scoring defense. That ranking is likely to get better here.

The game is likely to be close, somewhat ugly and competitive. I would also be surprised, unless special teams or defense finds ways to manufacture points, if the scoreboard is active.

I would be very surprised if this game hit 40 points total. Simple as that.

   

Cotton Bowl: Alabama (-13.5) vs. Cincinnati 

I'm going to level with you. I don't feel particularly good about betting against Cincinnati.

As I've said time and time again, however, feelings and emotion often get in the way of good gambling. And while I would love to see Cincinnati flip the entire sport on its side with an upset win, I just don't see it happening. 

Make no mistake about it. The loss of wideout John Metchie III is a big one for Nick Saban. I just get a sense that the athletes at so many positions up and down the depth chart are likely to separate as this game goes on.

Cincinnati certainly has talent. Desmond Ridder is a really good QB. The Bearcats have a great running game. Their cornerbacks, Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner and Coby Bryant, are both future NFL players.

But the problem in this game is that Bryce Young, this year's Heisman winner, plays for Alabama. And if he plays a game even remotely close to the one he had against Georgia, there is no college football team capable of stopping him.

   

Orange Bowl: Michigan (+7.5) vs. Georgia 

I bet Georgia to win the national championship before the season began. I have tickets ranging between 5/1 and 7/1, and I felt good about these tickets for the majority of the season.

Then, the SEC Championship Game happened. Then, a defense that looked historic for almost an entire year looked mortal. 

Could Georgia still win the title? Absolutely. The defense, while bad for one day against Bryce Young, still is chock-full of talent. The offense, while inconsistent in that game, has plenty of pieces as well.

But Michigan has all of the necessary ingredients to keep this game within a touchdown. No, it doesn't have Young at QB. It does, however, have an offense with loads of weapons, especially at running back.  

It also has Aidan Hutchinson, the best player on the field and perhaps the best player in the sport.

Ultimately, I believe Georgia wins this game. The Bulldogs, despite the most recent outcome, are immensely talented. Michigan should be able to do enough offensively to keep this game close, and I'll certainly play the Wolverines as more than a touchdown underdog. 

That hook feels plenty valuable. Will find out if that's the case soon enough.

   

Odds via DraftKings and accurate as of Tuesday.

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Game week. There is nothing like it. 

And after a few dormant weekends, the College Football Playoff is finally (almost) here.

On New Year's Eve, No. 1 Alabama will play No. 4 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl in the first matchup. Then, No. 2 Michigan will play No. 3 Georgia in the Orange Bowl to bring in 2022.   

The winners of these two games, of course, will play in the national championship on January 10. (It's in Indianapolis, so get used to everyone in attendance complaining about how cold it will be. It's inevitable.) 

As we embark on another playoff, however, we are searching far and wide for those willing to attach themselves to bold claims. College football's mini-playoff might not have an abundance of games to predict, although that doesn't mean there won't be surprises.   

What will those surprises be? We asked Bleacher Report readers for their bold predictions heading into the playoff, and they delivered. They always do. 

Here they are, in all their boldness.

The Great Harbaugh Bulldozer 

User: @Motorcitysports1 

Suggestion: Michigan puts up over 250 rushing yards against Georgia, wins by 10 points.

The comments, to be clear, were very pro-Michigan. That's a change from the regular season when they were, well, not.

This was not the only person to proclaim a Michigan triumph. There were many, with various tidbits along the way, that were plenty bold. 

But this one stands out for a few reasons. For starters, the Wolverines beating Georgia by double digits would be a big deal. Michigan is currently a 6.5-point underdog. Many Michigan fans would likely take an outright win, although flexing for style points is never a bad thing. 

But the boldness in this prediction for the stat nerds out there—raises hand—is the idea that the Wolverines will run for 250 yards. 

Georgia allowed 150-plus rushing yards just one time this season, and only four teams reached 100 total rushing yards against the Bulldogs. Michigan is poised to challenge this history, having rushed for 250 (or more) yards five times this year. But it would be somewhat remarkable to see this rushing offense, as tremendous as it is, have that kind of success. 

That's why they call them bold predictions. That's why I love them.

Cincinnati Shocker

User: @ChikoStick 

Suggestion: Cincinnati beats Michigan in the national championship.

A Cincinnati-Michigan championship would be fascinating for a slew of reasons. But a Cincinnati title would be one of the more thrilling endings in the history of the sport.

This is bold. Let's be clear about that.

Sure, there are only four teams left, and we're running out of championship options. But at +1600 to win the national title now, Luke Fickell's team could cap off a brilliant year with a most unlikely outcome. 

Considering the Bearcats are nearly a two-touchdown underdog this week, even reaching the championship game would be a shocking result. Being able to overcome another CFB blue blood after a semifinal victory would be perhaps the boldest of bold predictions. 

Maybe this is indeed the year. Given the amount of discussion that Cincinnati generated this season—and even in 2020—it would be only fitting to see the Bearcats shock the world one last time.

And to do it against Wolverines coach Jim Harbaugh, who has spent seven years trying to conquer CFB since arriving at Ann Arbor, would be that much more thrilling. Not for the many Michigan fans feeling themselves in the comments, but certainly everyone else.

Cincinnati would be an underdog in that matchup as well, and likely a sizable one at that. I doubt the Bearcats would have it any other way.

Upcoming Forecast: ‘Bama Blowouts 

User: @jrvalleroy 

Suggestion: Bama wins another natty with two double-digit wins. Not that bold, but it's what will happen.

It's not terribly bold, has a solid serving of overconfidence and states something far less outrageous than some of the predictions mentioned. But I can't help but consider what the past six weeks have looked like and how much things have changed. 

Alabama should have lost at Auburn. The Crimson Tide certainly deserve credit for outlasting the Tigers and keeping their playoff hopes alive. And Nick Saban certainly deserves credit for fixing his team's offensive line and clobbering Georgia the following week.

Back on Thanksgiving, however, this prediction would have sounded outrageous. It's Alabama, and nothing should ever be simply tossed aside given Saban's dominance since he arrived. But the Crimson Tide looked mortal for much of the year. Beating Georgia changed everything. 

If Alabama beats Cincinnati by double digits and follows it up with a double-digit win over Georgia or Michigan, it will be Saban's greatest coaching accomplishment ever.

That is not hyperbole. That is not bold. That is very real. 

To lose the talent Alabama lost this offseason and still reach this point—let alone dominate the CFP—would be truly unbelievable. 

The Outcome No One Wants

User: @buckwild21 

Suggestion: Michigan gets at least 1 W because of a forfeit. 

Let's begin with a disclaimer. It doesn't matter the team or situation; the hope is that the remaining College Football Playoff games will go off without issue and the champion will be decided without issue. That should go without saying. So much of this is larger than the games themselves.  

However, the possibility of COVID-19 impacting the CFP certainly exists. In fact, the College Football Playoff management committee had to announce contingency plans if one or more teams are impacted by positive tests. 

While semifinal games have a small window to be rescheduled, a team could forfeit that game if it is unable to field the appropriate number of players before or on January 7. 

The same goes for the national championship, which could ultimately be vacated if both teams are unable to play. It could also be a forfeit if only one team is impacted. 

Given the surge in cases, the fact that the committee had to announce these potential plans well in advance speaks volumes. They are prepared for whatever happens, and the teams will be as well.  

While we can argue and debate the victors and the upsets and the storylines within the storylines, one thing isn't up for discussion: We want the sport and the people making it all possible to be safe. 

We want the games to go off cleanly. We want a tremendous season to end on an incredibly high note.

Bold Take: No One Will Watch 

User: @BooogerMcFarland 

Suggestion: Psssh, there are no bold predictions: Bama vs. UGA. The only bold prediction is that the championship will have the lowest ratings.

If the chalk holds, and it very well could, Alabama and Georgia will play a football game for the second time in a six-week span. Getting a rematch is not exactly a bold projection, as is pointed out in the comment. But the reaction to this game could be somewhat fascinating. 

(Well, if you're into that sort of thing.) 

Alabama-Georgia Part 1 was watched by more than 15 million viewers, making it one of the most watched football games of 2021. (Ohio State and Michigan delivered the highest ratings of any football game this year, for those who were curious.)

Would Part 2 likely turn some people away? Probably. 

Would it also gain some people who want to see CFB's champion crowned? Probably. 

People don't necessarily love a rematch in any sport, and the first installment wasn't exactly an all-timer. In fact, the game really dragged in the second half when Alabama pulled away. 

But the stakes, of course, would change plenty. You would still have a Heisman-winning QB going up against a defense ripe with future NFL players. And you still have Saban trying to recement his GOAT status. Whether people care about that is another question entirely.

Ratings for last season's national championship game between Alabama and Ohio State were down significantly from the previous year. My guess is that an Alabama-Georgia rematch would likely do better numbers, although I understand the fatigue surrounding both the Crimson Tide and the possibility of a rematch.

I know one thing: I will watch. Very bold of me to say. 

                    

Odds and betting information courtesy of DraftKings.

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