Phillies' NLCS Game 1 Win Shows That Shelling Out $500M+ Can Be Money Well Spent
If ever there was a perfect illustration of the phrase "money well spent," it's what $527 million worth of Philadelphia Phillies stars did in Game 1 of the 2022 National League Championship Series.
Take a bow, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. And especially you, Zack Wheeler.
The three of them put their fingerprints all over the Phillies' 2-0 victory over the San Diego Padres at Petco Park on Tuesday night. Wheeler pitched seven shutout innings, while Harper and Schwarber provided the offense with solo home runs.
Anyone who's just now hearing about Schwarber's long ball should know that they might have literally heard it when it happened. Because when a ball leaves the bat at 120 mph and travels 488 feet, it makes quite the sound.
After scoring 31 runs in seven games against the 101-win New York Mets and 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers in the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Padres offense basically didn't show up on Tuesday. In addition to zero runs, it mustered just one hit.
Thus did the Phillies put San Diego on the losing end of the kind of game that it enjoyed on Oct. 9. They're now just three wins away from returning to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
Wheeler Continues to be a $118 Million Bargain
There was no shortage of surprised expressions when the Phillies originally signed Wheeler to a five-year, $118 million contract in Dec. 2019.
He was, after all, a guy with great stuff but not a whole lot to show for it. As a New York Met between 2013 and 2019, he lost two seasons to Tommy John surgery and otherwise pitched to an average 100 ERA+.
Brodie Van Wagenen, who was then the Mets' general manager, didn't seem terribly saddened to lose Wheeler. In response to the hurler's back-handed comments about the Mets in Feb. 2020, Van Wagenen clapped back by saying that the team had "helped him parlay two good half-seasons over the last five into $118 million."
Cut to now, and Van Wagenen is out of a job and Wheeler is arguably the best pitcher in Major League Baseball.
Baseball Reference's version of wins above replacement doesn't leave much doubt about it. Wheeler's 15.4 rWAR since the start of the 2020 season put him 2.1 up on the next-best hurler. That about tracks with his 2.82 ERA and 437.1 innings.
As of a couple weeks ago, what Wheeler's resume lacked was any kind of track record in the postseason, much less a successful one. No longer. His three starts in these playoffs have seen him yield only three runs over 19.1 innings.
An uproar was brewing on social media when Phillies manager Rob Thomson lifted Wheeler after he had thrown only 83 pitches over seven innings. Yet it wasn't without good reasons, as the 32-year-old was only activated off the injured list on Sep. 21 and his velocity had been declining throughout Game 1.
“It was going down a little bit. I think that was why we made that decision," Thomson said. "We had the guys in the bullpen to kind of be able to do that. I think we were all comfortable with it.”
No kidding. Seranthony Domínguez and José Alvarado tore through San Diego hitters in the eighth and ninth innings, striking out three and allowing no hits.
Harper and Schwarber Are a $409 Million Bargain in Their Own Right
Contrary to the signing of Wheeler, it wasn't necessarily a shocker when the Phillies inked Harper to a 13-year, $330 million contract in March 2019. Both the match and the contract had more or less been expected.
Still, everyone saw the risk. At the time, the deal called for the largest guarantee in North American professional sports. And all for a guy who'd had his ups and downs on either side of a spectacular MVP-winning season for the Washington Nationals in 2015.
Four years later, precisely none of that risk has actually materialized.
Harper's first three seasons in Philadelphia were largely excellent, and never more so than in his second MVP-winning campaign in 2021. A fluke thumb injury did sideline him for two months this summer and rendered him cold after he returned in August, but those hard times are clearly over.
Harper's blast Tuesday was his fourth of the playoffs. That's already more than he had in 35 games after he was activated off the IL, and it gives him nine postseason home runs for his career.
If there was a polar opposite of the red-hot Harper coming into Game 1, it was Schwarber. He had gone just 1-for-20 through the first six games of these playoffs, putting him at 1-for-32 over his last nine playoff outings overall.
What better way to bust out of a slump than with two well-struck absolutely obliterated hits? Between his 111.3 mph single and 119.7 mph home run, Schwarber is only the 11th player in the Statcast era to record two 110-plus mph hits in a postseason game.
In addition to the NL-leading 46 home runs that he hit in the regular season, call it further justification for the four-year, $79 million contract that he signed this past March.
Are the Phillies' hits typical of MLB's general success rate on nine-figure contracts? That's a firm no, as even "mixed" might be too kind a label for the returns on such deals.
But between Wheeler, Harper, Schwarber and, oh yeah, $115.5 million catcher J.T. Realmuto, there's no doubting that the Phillies wouldn't be where they are right now without their high-priced stars. Call it a sign that sometimes it does pay when you pay to win.
What's Next for the Phillies and Padres?
Philadelphia and San Diego will meet for NLCS Game 2 on Wednesday at Petco Park, with first pitch scheduled for 4:35 p.m. ET. FOX and FS1 will have the broadcast.
The pitching matchup for Game 2 will feature Aaron Nola (32 GS, 205.0 IP, 3.25 ERA) for the Phillies against Blake Snell (24 GS, 128.0 IP, 3.38 ERA) for the Padres.
Following an off day on Thursday, Game 3 will be in Philadelphia on Friday at 7:37 p.m. ET.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
