Why Cubs Should Trade Yu Darvish to Highest Bidder Once Trevor Bauer Signs

The moment Trevor Bauer signs on the dotted line, multiple teams will be left scrambling to fill a void atop their starting rotation.
That's when the Chicago Cubs will have an opportunity to take control of the MLB offseason by dangling right-hander Yu Darvish. MLB Network's Jon Heyman reported Darvish "seems out there" in trade discussions, although a rival executive guessed it would take Babe Ruth to land him.
First, let's set the scene.
A year ago, teams that missed out on signing Gerrit Cole could shift their pursuit to a secondary market that included Hyun-Jin Ryu, Madison Bumgarner, Dallas Keuchel and a number of other quality options.
This year is a different story.
Even before Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman both accepted qualifying offers, the list of fallback plans was uninspiring, to say the least.
Masahiro Tanaka is 32 years old with nearly 2,400 career innings on his arm, and he's still pitching with a partially torn UCL. Adam Wainwright is 39 and unlikely to leave the St. Louis Cardinals.
Jake Odorizzi turned a stellar 2019 into a qualifying offer and then promptly tanked his value with a 6.59 ERA in four starts. Taijuan Walker returned from two lost seasons to post a 2.70 ERA in 53.1 innings, but his 4.56 FIP paints a less-than-promising picture of sustainability.
Tomoyuki Sugano is a wild card after eight stellar seasons with the Yomiuri Giants in the Japanese League, but his 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings speak to his average stuff, and the transition stateside is not always a smooth one.
James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, Anthony DeSclafani, Jose Quintana and Michael Wacha are part of a long list of intriguing veterans who have a lot to prove after disappointing seasons and will likely have to settle for one-year deals as a result.
Where does that leave a team in search of top-of-the-rotation help that is not able to reel in the offseason's biggest fish in Bauer?

That brings us back to the Cubs.
Even before Theo Epstein stepped down as team president, change was coming for the North Siders this offseason. Since winning the World Series in 2016, stagnation has set in on a largely unchanged roster. They were good enough to win a wide-open National League Central in 2020, yet no one was surprised when they were ousted by an upstart Miami Marlins team in the Wild Card Series.
The first steps toward a roster overhaul came at the non-tender deadline when Kyle Schwarber and Albert Almora Jr. were among the roster casualties, and more upheaval could be forthcoming.
"In conversations with other teams, the Cubs are signaling there will be significant turnover on the roster, with a willingness to move almost any veteran–as well as just about anyone from the core group of position players who won the 2016 World Series, including shortstop Javier Baez," ESPN's Buster Olney reported in mid-November.
Third baseman Kris Bryant is the most popular name on the rumor mill, and there's a good chance he will be traded at some point this winter, a year removed from free agency.
However, it's Darvish who the team should be preparing to flip.
Three years into a six-year, $126 million contract, Darvish is coming off the best season of his MLB career and a second-place finish in NL Cy Young voting. The 34-year-old went 8-3 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 93 strikeouts in 76 innings, throwing 10 quality starts in his 12 appearances while posting a 2.23 FIP that led all qualified NL starters.
Even if the Cubs fancy themselves contenders in 2021, now is the time to sell high.
Darvish made his pro debut in Japan at the age of 18, and he already had 1,268.1 innings under his belt when he joined the Texas Rangers prior to his age-25 season.
After eight seasons stateside, he's now at 2,428.1 innings, a total surpassed stateside by only six active pitchers, including Bartolo Colon and Felix Hernandez, who spent 2020 watching from the sidelines. The end of the line is in sight.
So, why would someone want to trade for him now?
For a team that is one great starting pitcher away from World Series contention, Darvish is an infinitely more appealing target than any of the aforementioned free agents. Even if he only has one more prime season left in the tank, it won't matter if he helps deliver a title in 2021.
With a $22 million salary, Darvish is the second-highest-paid player on a Cubs team that has cried poor the last several offseasons while treading water with a flawed roster. If it is truly intent on shaking things up, the financial flexibility a Darvish trade would create would be a huge step.
Some obvious hurdles remain, including a partial no-trade clause and the simple fact that the three years and $59 million remaining on his contract represent a significant investment at a time when teams are staring down unprecedented financial losses amid the coronavirus pandemic.
However, for teams like the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies, all of which unequivocally need at least one more impact starter, there is only one Trevor Bauer.
The moment he signs, the Cubs will have a chance to grab the reins of an uncertain offseason and drive the trade market.
Will they seize the opportunity?
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference.