No. 4 Illinois Routs No. 2 Michigan 76-53 as Ayo Dosunmu Sits with Injury
Mar 2, 2021
Illinois guard Andre Curbelo (5) chases a loose ball as Da'Monte Williams (20) defends Michigan guard Chaundee Brown (15)in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Ann Arbor, Mich., Tuesday, March 2, 2021. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)
No. 4 Illinois has snapped No. 2 Michigan's winning streak at seven.
The Fighting Illini, who have now won 10 of their last 11 outings, defeated Michigan 76-53in Ann Arbor on Tuesday.
Illinois stomping Michigan in Ann Arbor without Ayo is very much on brand for this season.
Trent Frazier dropped 22 pointsfor Illinois, which moves to 19-6 on the season and 15-4 in Big Ten play.
For the Wolverines (18-2, 13-2), Eli Brooks notched 11 points.
Notable Performers
Trent Frazier, Illinois: 22 PTS, 4 REB, 2 STL
Andre Curbelo, Illinois: 17 PTS, 6 REB
Kofi Cockburn, Illinois: 12 PTS, 7 REB
Eli Brooks, Michigan: 11 PTS, 2 STL
No Ayo Against No. 2? No Problem.
Everything could have changed for Illinois when their leading scorer, Ayo Dosunmu, went down with a facial injury against Michigan State last week.
Instead, they've been thriving.
In place of Dosunmu, who averaged 21 points and 6.3 rebounds per game in the Illini's first 22 outings, Da'Monte Williams has gotten the start at guard, having returned to the starting lineup after playing off the bench since Jan. 19. Guard Andre Curbelo has stepped up to provide scoring depth on the bench, with 27 points over the past two games heading into Tuesday. Kofi Cockburn—who leads the team in boards—led the offense in both outings.
Dosunmu was considered day-to-dayleading up to Tuesday's tip. He didn't end up taking the court, but the Illini managed—as has become the norm.
By the end of the night, the scoring had spread throughout the lineup. Trent Frazier, who only grabbed six points in the first half, ended the night as the game's leading scorer with 22 points.
Curbelo tallied six more points to end with 17, while Cockburn came alive in the second half to finish with 12.
In a preview of what could wind up being the Big Ten championship game, the win gives Illinois major momentum entering the Big Ten tournament and looking ahead to March.
Michigan Just Can't Match Illinois
Where the Illini have largely relied on the major contributions from Dosunmu this season, the Wolverines' strength has come from balanced scoring. Freshman star Hunter Dickinson leads the team with an average of 14.8 points per game, while Isaiah Livers is close behind with 14.5 points.
Franz Wagner has also stepped up as of late, setting or tying his season high in three of the last four games for the Wolverines, bringing his average to 13.3 points per game.
The scoring was certainly balanced in the first half, but not as they would have liked.
With Wagner and Dickinson in foul trouble, it was up to Livers and Eli Brooks, who posted five points each. Austin Davis was there with four points, but the Wolverines were no match for an Illini group that ran out to an 11-point advantage at the break.
The Illini defense limited the group to just one bucket from deep and a total of 32.1 percent shooting from the field in first 20 minutes.
The Wolverines lost terribly to their opponent on the glass, giving up42 rebounds and while only grabbing 26 boards. It was costly as the Illini tallied22 second-chance points.
It took until 4:08 remaining in the game for any Michigan player to record more than 10 points. Brooks ended the night with 11 points.
Michigan has no answers defensively right now and they look like a tired team. Certainly don’t have their legs beneath them tonight. Credit Illinois for hitting some big shots. This game might be over already.
The loss is a blow to Michigan's near-perfect season, and it could make them vulnerable when a resurgent Michigan State squad comes to town at the end of the week to close the season ahead of the Big Ten tournament, where it's incredibly likely that a championship game could end up being a rematch of Tuesday's affair.
What's Next?
Illinois will head to Columbus to face No. 7 Ohio State in the final game of the season Saturday.
Illinois better save some of this insane defense for Ohio State.
Michigan will play Michigan State on Thursday and Sunday to finish the year before the Big Ten tournament.
Big Ten Tournament 2021: Schedule and Bracket Predictions for Conference Tourney
Mar 2, 2021
Michigan guard Franz Wagner (21) makes a layup as Iowa center Luka Garza defends during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
The Big Ten men's basketball tournament should be the most exciting conference tournament in Division I.
Four of the top 10 teams in the AP Top 25 reside at the top of the conference, and it has the potential to produce a pair of No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament.
Over the last few weeks, the contests between those teams have delivered some of the best games of the regular season.
If no upsets occur, the Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes, Illinois Fighting Illini and Iowa Hawkeyes could feature in a semifinal round worthy of a Final Four.
However, the Michigan State Spartans and Indiana Hoosiers could break up the Big Ten hierarchy by winning games that get them into the NCAA tournament.
According to ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi, Michigan State and Indiana reside on the "first four out" line and need to do work in the next week-and-a-half to join eight other Big Ten squads projected to be in the Big Dance.
First Round: Wednesday, March 10 (6:30 p.m., 9 p.m., Big Ten Network)
Second Round: Thursday, March 11 (sessions start at 11:30 a.m. and 6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)
Quarterfinals: Friday, March 12 (sessions start at 11:30 a.m. and 6:30 p.m., Big Ten Network)
Semifinals: Saturday, March 13 (1 p.m., 25 minutes following first game, CBS)
Final: Sunday, March 14 (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Bracket Predictions
Iowa Earns Rematch with Michigan in Final
Iowa just finished an up-and-down week in which it lost to Michigan by 22 points and beat Ohio State by 16 points.
The Hawkeyes could be viewed as the top threat to Michigan's run to the Big Ten tournament crown since the Buckeyes are on a three-game losing streak.
Iowa has the best scoring offense in the Big Ten, ranking fifth in Division I at 84.7 points per game, and its defense has gotten better over the last few weeks.
Since February 10, the Hawkeyes held every opponent in their five victories under 70 points. Michigan was the only team to eclipse that mark in the 79-57 triumph in Ann Arbor. Prior to that stretch, Iowa allowed eight opponents to score more than 70 points over 13 victories.
If Iowa's offense continues to thrive and its defense gets better, it could be on a collision course with U-M to square off in the championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Michigan controlled that Feb. 25 meeting by containing National Player of the Year favorite Luka Garza with freshman star Hunter Dickinson and by outshooting the Hawkeyes. Garza was limited to 16 points and four rebounds; he is averaging 24.3 points and 8.4 rebounds per game.
The Wolverines shot 47.1 percent from three-point range compared to Iowa's 31.6 percent and erupted for a 47-point second half. Iowa is third in Division I in three-point percentage; Michigan is 11th.
If the Hawkeyes adjust in those two facets of the game, they could earn their best victory of the season right before the NCAA tournament begins or at least make the matchup much closer than the first affair.
Michigan State Makes Deeper Run than Indiana
Michigan State and Indiana will be compared to each other on a constant basis ahead of Selection Sunday.
Both teams need to put together a string of decent results in the next week-and-a-half to feel secure about their positions in the field of 68.
The two sides play Tuesday in East Lansing, but the games that will determine their Big Ten tournament seeding happen later in the week. Michigan State has to play Michigan on Thursday and Sunday (at home), while Indiana finishes the regular-season against the Purdue Boilermakers.
If the Spartans fail to beat Michigan twice, they could slip out of ninth place. While that may not be an entirely good thing, it would help the Spartans avoid another meeting with the Wolverines in Indianapolis.
In that case, Tom Izzo's team could catch some of the struggling Big Ten teams as the No. 10 or No. 11 seed in the bracket.
Illinois is currently short-handed with Ayo Dosunmu out with a facial injury, Ohio State is struggling, and the Wisconsin Badgers have lost three of their last four.
If two of those teams are aligned with the Spartans, it could present a much more favorable matchup, giving Michigan State another chance or two to earn a quality win.
If Indiana ends up as the No. 9 seed through a win over Michigan State, it could end up on Michigan's side of the bracket and have to face the Wolverines in the quarters.
Even if Michigan State beats Indiana, there is a situation in which it could fall back to the No. 10 or 11 seed since it has the two intrastate games after Tuesday.
Of course, Michigan State should want to win each of its remaining games, but losses to Michigan may not be the worst thing to set it up for a better Big Ten tournament run.
Luka Garza, No. 9 Iowa Pull Away from No. 4 Ohio State for Upset Win
Feb 28, 2021
Iowa's Luka Garza, left, posts up against Ohio State's Zed Key during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Sunday, Feb. 28, 2021, in Columbus, Ohio. (AP Photo/Jay LaPrete)
Unlike Ohio State, Iowa didn't falter after losing to Michigan.
The No. 9 Hawkeyes, who dropped Thursday's game to No. 3 Michigan 79-57, defeated No. 4 Ohio State on Sunday, 73-57.
The fourth-ranked Buckeyes fell to Michigan a week ago and have now dropped three straight.
Let’s just say Iowa has reacted to its blowout loss at Michigan better than OSU has to its narrow loss at MSU
As expected, Luka Garza paced Iowa, which improved to 18-7 overall and 12-6 in the Big Ten.
For Ohio State (18-7, 12-7), E.J. Liddell had a team-high 15 points.
Notable Performers
Luka Garza, Iowa: 24 PTS, 11 REB
Joe Wieskamp, Iowa: 19 PTS, 6 REB
E.J. Liddell, Ohio State: 15 PTS, 3 REB
Justice Sueing, Ohio State: 12 PTS
Iowa Manages Without Jack Nunge
The star on this Iowa team is obviously Luka Garza, who is a contender for every national player of the year award as he entered Sunday with an average of 24.3 points on 54.8 percent shooting from the field. Everyone knows it, and that helped Ohio State to limit him to just 16 points in their last outing.
But Garza had backup, as Iowa got 18 points each from Jordan Bohannon and Jack Nunge and 17 from Joe Wieskamp in a four-point loss.
Nunge suffered the second season-ending knee injury of his career when the Hawkeyes lost to Michigan. While he was only averaging 7.1 points per game, the sophomore had proved to be an important piece of Iowa's depth throughout the season.
In the first half, the Hawkeyes barely had to look beyond Garza, who had 15 points with seven rebounds, while Wieskamp posted 13 points. The rest of the lineup was quiet, with Bohannon tallying three points as the only other starter to score.
Bohannon set a school record for assists in the opening frame.
Iowa didn't really have to look to its bench as Garza and Wieskamp dominated for 43 of Iowa's 73 points.
With its recent success, Iowa appears to be headed toward the No. 3 seed in the Big Ten tournament. It is locked into that spot as long as it beats Nebraska and Wisconsin next week.
From there, a deep run in the conference tournament could easily lead to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
E.J. Liddell Is Getting Hot, But OSU Is Getting Cold
Ohio State's leading scorer, sophomore E.J. Liddell, has done all he could to keep the Buckeyes in the conversation for a No. 1 seed. In the last four games, he has scored at least 18 points, and he tallied a double-double when he dropped 23 against Michigan to go with 10 rebounds.
But he wasn't pleased after that outing against Michigan.
"A loss is a loss no matter who you lose against," he said (h/tAdam Jardyof Buckeye Xtra). "I hate losing no matter how much it's by. This one just stung a little different because I felt like I could've done more. Just things didn't go my way tonight."
On Sunday, he scored 13 points in the first half, but there was no one else there to help him as the Buckeyes trailed by 14 at the break.
E.J. Liddell is 6 for 10. Everyone else is 6 for 21. And I'm pretty sure Joe Wieskamp leased an apartment in Columbus during that first half.
Duane Washington Jr. scored five points as the team's second-leading scorer at halftime. The team hit just 38.7 percent of shots from the field compared to Iowa's 51.6 percent shooting and 35.7 percent from deep. Ohio State hit just 20 percent of its three-point attempts in the opening half.
In the second half, Liddell recorded just two points, but even an increased role fromJustice Sueing, who had 12 on the day, wasn't enough for the Buckeyes to pull through.
The loss could have major implications heading into March—maybe Liddell is heating up, but Ohio State is getting stone cold at the wrong time. The Buckeyes' road isn't getting any easier when they take on conference rival and fifth-ranked Illinois, with Big Ten and NCAA tournament seeding on the line.
What's Next?
The Hawkeyes are back in action Thursday against Nebraska before closing the season Sunday against No. 23 Wisconsin on Sunday.
Ohio State's regular season ends on Saturday with its third ranked opponent in four games as the Buckeyes host No. 5 Illinois.
Iowa center Luka Garza (55) is defended by Michigan center Hunter Dickinson (1) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game, Thursday, Feb. 25, 2021, in Ann Arbor, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
No. 3 Michigan took another major step towards to Big Ten title on Thursday with a79-57 victory overNo. 9 Iowa in one of the biggest matchups of the season.
Two of college basketball's elite big men went at each other at the Crisler Center as Michigan's Hunter Dickinson posted 14 points with Iowa's Luka Garza putting up 16 in a loss that may have ended the Hawkeyes' bid to win the Big Ten.
The Wolverines already held a two-game lead over Iowa atop the conference standings. Now they're 17-1 (12-1 Big Ten) with four games left to play—including a contest with No. 5 Illinois that may end up deciding the league title.
Iowa (17-7, 11-6 Big Ten), has just three games left in the regular season and needs some outside help if the Hawkeyes are going to steal the banner from Michigan.
Jordan Bohannon, G, Iowa Hawkeyes: 13 points, 2 rebounds
Dickinson Dominates Garza
Dickinson and Garza appeared to swap roles Thursday.
The Michigan star played anything like a freshman while Iowa's Naismith Player of the Year candidate looked completely lost. As much as Wolverines' second-half defense was responsible for shutting down the Hawkeyes, it was Dickinson's play in the first half that completely stymied any attempt by Garza to find a rhythm.
At 7'1", 255 pounds, Dickinson was too much of a physical presence for the 6'11" Garza to maneuver around. That made most of Garza's post moves irrelevant. Anytime the Iowa senior put his back to the basket, Dickinson refused to back down, using his length to disrupt his opponent's shot attempts.
Garza shot just 3-of-11 in the first half with only two makes in the paint and no rebounds.
Instead, it was Dickinson running the floor, cutting into the lane and easily finishing layups off the glass that helped balance the Wolverines' offense.
That played out exactly the way I expected it to. Luka Garza couldn’t function against Hunter Dickinson, Michigan didn’t need to double and that neutered Iowa’s offensive potency. Really, really impressive win for Michigan, who keeps doing things like this.
The only hiccup with UM head coach Juwan Howard's plan came 2:30 into the second half when Garza had Dickinson on the move as he coasted into the lane, causing the big man to pick up his third foul. Howard benched Dickinson, but the damage to Iowa was already done. Because Garza didn't require a double-team with Dickinson on the floor, the rest of the Hawkeyes offense continued to lag behind their star. By the time Dickinson picked up his third foul, Michigan was able to maintain the lead without him by clamping down on their man-to-man defense.
The Hawkeyes shot just 30 percent from the floor in the second half as Franz Wagner and Dickinson kept the Wolverines rolling to their sixth straight win.
Injuries and Interruptions Hurt Iowa
Garza's play was by far the biggest factor in the loss, but it's hardly the only reason the Hawkeyes fell behind.
Playing a marquee game on the road already presented enough challenges without worrying about Garza against Dickinson. It became much tougher to focus on the other areas of the floor with such a turbulent first half.
The first 20 minutes of play saw the refs pause the action to check the monitors on four separate occasions—three of them coming in the first 14 minutes. For an Iowa team that already couldn't get rolling on offense, the disruptions only made matters worse.
Michigan's offense didn't look nearly as fluid as it did vs. Ohio State over the weekend, but the Wolverines dominated the offensive glass & Hunter Dickinson has been awesome at both ends of the floor. Luka Garza only 3-for-11 from the field; Dickinson with 8 points (and 2 fouls)
The challenge grew after Iowa sophomore forward Jack Nunge left the court with a leg injury early in the first half. The Indiana native is averaging 7.5 points and 5.6 rebounds this year. That he was unable to return to the bench is concerning not just for how the Hawkeyes played on Thursday, but their postseason chances.
Junior guard Connor McCaffrey followed Nunge to the trainers' table in the second half after his ankle rolled awkwardly. The son of head coach Fran McCaffrey initially had trouble walking off the floor but was able to jog a few minutes later. He wouldn't return to the game, regardless.
Everything appeared to work against Iowa's favor on Thursday. How the team moves forward from here will say plenty about their chances in March.
What's Next
The Wolverines travel to Bloomington, Indiana to face a Hoosiers team looking to avoid its first three-game losing streak this year. Tipoff is set for noon ET on Saturday. The Hawkeyes, meanwhile, face another intense matchup, visiting No. 4 Ohio State in a 4 p.m. ET battle on CBS.
Illinois' Ayo Dosunmu Out Indefinitely After Suffering Facial Injury
Feb 25, 2021
Illinois' Ayo Dosunmu (11) dribbles during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Indiana, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021, in Bloomington, Ind. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
Illinois guard Ayo Dosunmu is sidelined indefinitely after suffering a facial injury in Tuesday's loss to Michigan State, the school announced Thursday (h/t Jeff Borzello of ESPN).
Dosunmu was fouled by Michigan State freshman Mady Sissoko, who was ejected after he was assessed a flagrant-2 foul. Dosunmu stayed in the game.
Brian Hamiltonof The Athletic reported that the star suffered a broken nose on the play and has been fitted for a mask.
"Ayo is eager to play," head coach Brad Underwood said, per Borzello. "We are hopeful for his return to our lineup."
The star, who was named a Bob Cousy Award finalist and is a legitimate contender for both the Naismith and Wooden awards, has averaged 21.0 points per game with 6.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists, leading the team in scoring and assists.
If Dosunmu is sidelined for much longer, it could have major consequences for the Fighting Illini heading into March.
Illinois just hit its stride, winning seven games straight before the loss to Michigan State on Tuesday. In the process, the group improved to 16-6 and second in conference and also catapulted to the No. 5 spot in the country.
While the group should be able to manage against Nebraska on Thursday night, it's almost imperative that Dosunmu returns for the final stretch of the year, as Illinois faces No. 23 Wisconsin, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Ohio State to round out the regular season.
Ayo Dosunmu, No. 5 Illinois Upset by Unranked Michigan State in Big Ten Action
Feb 23, 2021
Michigan State forward Aaron Henry (0) is fouled by Illinois guard Jacob Grandison (3) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
A gloomy season for Michigan State's basketball team found a major bright spot on Tuesday as the Spartans knocked off No. 5 Illinois, 81-72, at the Breslin Center.
With the Spartans (12-9, 6-9 Big Ten) set to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten, its unquestionably the biggest win of the season for an MSU team fighting to stay above .500 on the year. Head coach Tom Izzo's team led by as much as 19 while the Illini (16-6, 12-4 Big Ten) never touched the lead after the first five minutes.
Double-digit scoring outings from Aaron Henry (20 points), Joshua Langord (15 points) and Rocket Watts (13 points) paced Michigan State while Illinois got 30 points and 15 reboundscombined from Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn.
Spotty shooting from Illinois aside (40 percent from the field), the Illini committed too many mistakes—many at the worst time—to give themselves a chance to get back into this one. It wasn't just the 11turnovers as it was the extra possessions Illinois gave up.
Nothing highlighted those errors more than a foul called on Illinois' Trent Frazier early the second half.
With the Illini trailing by 11, Frazier fouled Watts on a three-point attempt just before the shot clock expired. That Watts only made one of his three free throws matters less than Frazier's actions. Instead of letting a 28.6 percent three-point shooter take a hurried shot to beat the clock, he fouled a player who shoots 80 percent from the line and gave MSU a chance to set their defense.
Those are not the type of mistakes you expect to see from a Final Four contender.
Illinois may still be headed for a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday, but it now has glaring losses on its resume, including two more against unranked schools in Maryland and Missouri. The schedule doesn't get any easier for head coach Brad Underwood's team, either.
After hosting unranked Nebraska on Feb. 27, they play their final three games of the Big Ten season all on the road No. 23 Wisconsin, No. 3 Michigan and No. 4 Ohio State.
Michigan State previously earned wins over No. 6 Duke and No. 15 Rutgers. Both now pale in comparison to the victory over Illinois, which should provide a strong boost of momentum heading into the Big Ten Tournament—likely the only way into the NCAA Tournament the Spartans have left.
Inconsistent Michigan State Entering Now-or-Never Stretch for March Madness Bid
Feb 23, 2021
Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo directs guard A.J. Hoggard (11) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against Rutgers, Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2021, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
Michigan State's frustrating route through the 2020-21 season has reached its defining stage. Depending on the Spartans' results in the next two weeks, they'll either be preparing for the NCAA tournament or watching from home.
The next six games include four Top Five clashes, both Illinois and Ohio State once and rival Michigan twice. There's no definite number of wins required, but anything worse than a 3-3 record may leave Tom Izzo's team on the wrong side of the March Madness bubble.
It's an irregular position for the blue-blood program, which has undergone a dramatic perception change in just 60 days.
Early on, the Spartans seemed destined for the NCAA tournament. History established that belief, considering MSU would've made its 23rd straight trip to March Madness last year. Despite losing Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman, the team returned nearly everyone else in 2020-21, added Marquette transfer Joey Hauser and won six straight games to begin the season.
While the path to 6-0 had aesthetic flaws, MSU kept winning and climbed as high as No. 4 in the AP Top 25. And, hey, because of the pandemic-affected offseason, the retooled rotation needed a little time to develop as a unit, right?
Even after an unsightly three-game skid to Northwestern, Wisconsin and Minnesota, the Spartans relieved some nerves. They edged Nebraska and destroyed No. 15 Rutgers to reach 8-3.
But then the losses started piling up.
It started with a 17-point second-half collapse at home to Purdue. Following an extended pause due to coronavirus health and safety protocols, the Spartans returned with a horrendous 67-37 result at Rutgers and fell to Top 15 teams Ohio State and Iowa.
While victories over Nebraska and Penn State provided a chance to breathe, neither win accomplished much for MSU's overall outlook. Any positive feelings from those wins disappeared in the 88-58 loss to Iowa—the worst home loss of Izzo's 26-year tenure—and another letdown to Purdue.
That meandering path brings us to today, where the Spartans are 11-9 thanks to a weekend upset of Indiana.
Following the win, per Matt Charboneau of the Detroit News, Izzo labeled the next six games a "wicked stretch." Along with the featured games with Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan, the Spartans also travel to Maryland and host Indiana.
Had they lost to Indiana, we probably wouldn't be having this conversation. Instead, MSU is facing two diverging paths: Indiana was a nice victory in a bad season, or it kick-started a surge.
In his latest NCAA tournament forecast, B/R's Kerry Miller lists Michigan State as the fourth team out. BracketMatrix shows the Spartans included in zero of the 100 projections tracked.
Michigan State's 2-8 record against Quadrant 1 competition is the reason for this predicament. However, the resume is surviving because of 3-1 and 6-0 marks against Quadrant 2 teams and Quadrant 3/4 opponents, respectively. Now, the Spartans only have potential quality wins remaining.
Recent history says MSU could struggle and disappear from the bubble conversation anyway. Nobody should be surprised if the Spartans lose all four games to Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan. Slow starts, mediocre three-point shooting, turnovers and shaky defense have plagued them, and a victory over bubble-dwelling Indiana still showed everything but mediocre shooting.
"One game isn't going to make it all better," Izzo rightly told reporters after the Indiana win.
Yet the potential for something better is apparent, too. Given that beating Indiana put MSU back on the radar, imagine what upsetting a Top Five opponent would do.
Michigan State hosts Illinois and Ohio State this week. Even in an empty Breslin Center, home court is home court.
If the Spartans can manage a split, for example, it provides a route to 14-12 with victories over Maryland and Indiana—and that assumes two losses to Michigan. They can finish the regular season with eight Quadrant 1 and 2 wins and zero bad losses, which is respectable for a bubble team.
While, in theory, Michigan State could win the Big Ten tournament and secure an automatic bid, the reality is that's unlikely. Winning four or five games on consecutive days is hard enough, and MSU will have played these six games in 13 days.
Rather than viewing this wicked stretch as a miserable ending to rough year, however, the Spartans have an opportunity.
One win doesn't lessen the frustration of the last two months. But three or four victories would be a good start.
Is Our Baylor-Gonzaga Obsession Causing Us to Sleep on the Michigan Wolverines?
Feb 18, 2021
Wisconsin's Aleem Ford defends Michigan's Isaiah Livers during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Sunday, Feb. 14, 2021, in Madison, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)
The 2020-21 men's college basketball season is now 13 weeks old, and it has been Gonzaga at No. 1 and Baylor at No. 2 in the Associated Press Top 25 for each of those 13 weeks. In fact, the last time any other team received a first- or second-place vote was on Jan. 11, when Pac-12 expert Jon Wilner had Texas ahead of Baylor.
The Bears and Zags were supposed to square off Dec. 5, but that game was postponed because of positive COVID-19 tests within Gonzaga's program. Ever since that game didn't happen, though, there has been this mounting sense of inevitability that they will meet in the national championship.
And that infatuation with those two undefeated teams has led to a lot of people overlooking a 14-1 Michigan squad every bit as capable of winning it all.
In fairness to those still in Rip Van Winkle mode on the Wolverines, there has been a significant "Out of sight, out of mind" factor at play here.
Michigan didn't crack into the AP Top 10 until early January, suffered an 18-point loss at Minnesota less than two weeks later and then went more than three weeks between games (Jan. 22 - Feb. 14) because of an athletics-department-wide COVID-19 pause.
Sunday's win at Wisconsin was the first time this season that the Wolverines played a game while ranked in the Top Five, and they trailed by 14 late in the first half of that one.
However, the way Michigan rallied from that deficit should serve as evidence that we need to be taking this team more seriously as a national championship threat.
A few weeks ago, I combed through schedules to get a sense of how greatly teams have been impacted by COVID-19 pauses. The general consensus from others in the national media was that we should be expecting rust and sloppy play in a team's first game in several weeks, but that's not what the data suggested. Teams generally picked up right where they left off on offense and allowed roughly four more points than projected on defense. Which makes sense. A lengthy gap between games/practices is more likely to cause some lapses in defensive communication and rotation than it is to cause someone to lose his shooting stroke.
And in the first half of Michigan's game against Wisconsin, those initial defensive difficulties were on full display.
The Badgers—who entered the afternoon having averaged 63.2 points over their last nine games—shot 14-of-26 from the field and 5-of-7 from three-point range en route to 39 points. The low point was probably when 7'1" freshman center Hunter Dickinson got switched onto 6'0" senior guard D'Mitrik Trice and tried to guard him one-on-one at the top of the key. It predictably resulted in a Trice bucket.
Save for the Dec. 31 road game in which Maryland outrageously shot 9-of-11 from three-point range while scoring 44 points, it was the worst first half of defense Michigan has played all year.
But it only took those 20 minutes for Michigan to snap back to dominance.
After the intermission, Wisconsin shot just 7-of-28 (25.0 percent) from the field. Even several of the shots that went in were on low-percentage attempts. Both Micah Potter and Jonathan Davis hit two-pointers from maybe a foot inside the three-point line, which all the analytics say is the worst shot in basketball. Davis also made an acrobatic, driving, fadeaway floater over the outstretched arm of backup center Austin Davis—the type of shot that goes in maybe once every five times.
When he isn't occasionally getting put on skates while trying to step out to guard the perimeter, Dickinson has made a massive positive impact on defense. His block rate (1.7 per game; 3.8 per 100 possessions) isn't anything special, but his presence in the paint alters several shots per game while also forcing the opposition to settle for long twos.
He's not alone in the paint-protection department. Franz Wagner, 6'9", and Isaiah Livers, 6'7", block a combined 2.1 shots per game, forming this sort of Bermuda Triangle in which easy buckets do not exist.
Wisconsin was 0-of-1 on layups in the second half on Sunday. In its last game before going on the pause, Michigan held Purdue—a team that more or less views the area outside the paint and inside the three-point line as a no-fly zone—to 11-of-31 on what ESPN's play-by-play log labeled as layup attempts.
Missing 20 layups in a game is just ridiculous, but that's Michigan's defense for you.
And while star scorers get all the spotlight, defense is the name of the game in the NCAA tournament.
The 2019 national championship was Texas Tech vs. Virginia, who ranked first and fifth, respectively, in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. The 2018 title game was Villanova (No. 11 in AdjDE) vs. Michigan (No. 3). The year before that was No. 1 (Gonzaga) vs. No. 11 (North Carolina).
Every now and then a team will make it to the title game despite a defense that merely ranks in the top 50, but no team has ever won it all while ranking lower than 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency—where Michigan is currently ranked eighth.
The Wolverines are also seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency and currently have a difference between offensive and defensive effective field-goal percentage that is borderline historic.
They are sitting at 56.8 percent on offense and 43.1 percent on defense, which is a difference of 13.7 percent. In KenPom history (which dates back to 2001-02), there have only been three major-conference teams to end a season with a difference greater than 13 percent: 2006-07 Florida (14.4 percent) won the national championship, 2007-08 Georgetown (14.8 percent) was upset in the second round by some kid named Stephen Curry and 2017-18 Michigan State (14.2 percent) inexplicably forgot how to score* in a 55-53 second-round loss to Syracuse.
*It was one of only two games in the past 11 seasons in which a team both grabbed at least 25 offensive rebounds and scored fewer than 60 points. In the other, Kent State—which wasn't a good shooting team in the first place—missed all but one of its 24 three-point attempts at Oregon State. That Michigan State loss to Syracuse remains one of the most baffling results in recent NCAA tournament history.
Not exactly scientific proof of success there, but as long as they don't save what would be by far their worst offensive performance for the tournament and as long as they don't run into one of the greatest shooters in basketball history, you've got to like the Wolverines' chances.
The fly in the ointment is we don't know if Michigan is ready to beat Baylor or Gonzaga—let alone Baylor and Gonzaga in the span of two days, which is theoretically what it would take to win it all this year—because it has yet to face Illinois, Iowa or Ohio State in Big Ten play.
As far as the latest Bracket Matrix update is concerned, Michigan has only played three games against projected single-digit seeds: two wins over No. 5 seed Wisconsin and one win at No. 6 seed Purdue. Compare that to the other projected No. 1 seeds (Baylor, Gonzaga and Ohio State), who have a combined 9-0 record against teams in the projected Nos. 2-4 seed range and at least six games each against single-digit seeds.
Those opportunities to prove themselves are fast approaching for the Wolverines, though.
The next four games on the schedule—vs. Rutgers, at Ohio State, at Indiana, vs. Iowa—are all of the Quadrant 1 variety, and we assume they are going to try to fit in a game against Illinois somewhere along the way. (Tuesday, March 2, looks like it would be the most mutually agreeable date, but that's just a guess.)
If you haven't been paying much attention to Michigan up until this point, now is the time to start. Juwan Howard has something special brewing in Ann Arbor.
Kerry Miller covers college football and men's college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter,@kerrancejames.
Panic Meter Steadied, but Iowa Is Trapped in Familiar Pre-NCAA Tournament Slump
Feb 17, 2021
Iowa center Luka Garza (55) drives to the basket during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Michigan State, Tuesday, Feb. 2, 2021, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Iowa is used to this feeling. And that's exactly the problem.
After a 12-2 start to the 2020-21 season, the Hawkeyes encountered the dreaded Franuary slide. They recently endured a 1-4 spell, dropping into the danger zone at 7-5 in Big Ten play and 13-6 overall. In early February, they fell outside of the AP Top 10 for the first time all season.
At that moment, Iowa's schedule still contained Rutgers, Michigan State, two matchups with No. 21 Wisconsin and one clash opposite both No. 4 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan. The most concerning part was history has showed it might not get better.
Now, let's back up: What exactly is Franuary?
Hawkeyes fans, maybe skip this painful section. Iowa's coach is Fran McCaffery, who's guided the program for 11 years now. Throughout his tenure, losses have often piled up after the calendar flipped to a new year—January and February.
For example, the 2013-14 team opened with a 19-6 record but was 20-12 at the end of the conference tournament. Two years later, Iowa plummeted from 19-4 to 21-10. Then in 2018-19, the Hawkeyes cratered to 22-11 after a 20-5 start. They never advanced past the opening weekend of the NCAA tournament in those seasons.
Even after accounting for the Big Ten's competition level, that's a miserable trend to have experienced.
Iowa coach Fran McCaffery
Fortunately for Iowa supporters, the 2020-21 team has avoided the worst-case fate of missing March Madness. Recent wins over Rutgers and Michigan State have steadied Iowa's perception.
Because of the quality opponents left, the Luka Garza-led roster is destined for the 68-team NCAA tournament field. B/R's Kerry Miller shared he "can't imagine a scenario" in which the Hawkeyes miss out. Eamonn Brennan of The Athletic and ESPN's John Gasaway have labeled Iowa as a lock too.
On one hand, that invites a sigh of relief. Can't win a national title unless you're in March Madness, and Iowa will be.
Conversely, the "lock" status does little to disguise the reality that Iowa has serious concerns to address. The Hawkeyes have five regular-season games and the Big Ten tournament to sharpen their offense and find a functional defense.
And, again, all while taking on high-level competition.
Wisconsin is a defensive-oriented squad that will challenge Garza, whose production has dipped lately, opening the National Player of the Year conversation. However, his contributions are the foundation of Iowa's upside.
Ohio State has a similar offense-driven profile to Iowa, but the Buckeyes have performed at a much higher level recently. It's an opportunity for Joe Wieskamp, Jordan Bohannon, CJ Fredrick and others to showcase the Hawkeyes' depth of scoring while trying to avoid, well, disastrous mistakes on defense.
Iowa coaching staff screaming frantically to get to the open shooter in the corner, Pat McCaffery runs the other way, easy three for Indiana. Iowa has like 8 defensive lapses every game that are oh so very bad. pic.twitter.com/UxlfoJRsJP
Michigan boasts a top-10 offense and defense, per KenPom.com. Winning a championship means beating a team of the Wolverines' caliber in March Madness, so staying competitive here is vital.
In fairness, the definition of success for the Hawkeyes during this upcoming stretch is subjective.
Wins and losses are the obvious metric, and some viewers—both fans and analysts—judge primarily on outcomes. Others will monitor Iowa using the eyeball test or a numbers-based approach, and still more will combine all three. This is all an inexact science; there's no perfect way to evaluate performance.
Do the Hawkeyes need a 5-0 or 4-1 finish to quiet concerns? What happens if they're 3-2 or 2-3 down the stretch? Iowa has KenPom's top-ranked offense in the nation but is just 108th on defense; what sort of rise defensively is adequate? How does that compare to the eye test?
No matter how you analyze, Iowa has improvements to make, little time to actualize them and zero easy wins. Even 7-10 Penn State is a feisty opponent despite its record.
Locking in that March Madness bid is most important. Iowa will have a chance to make a run at a national title.
But if the Hawkeyes' familiar slide continues in this final stretch, 2020-21 will be yet another season that opened with great promise and broke down in Franuary.
2021 Big Ten Men's CBB Tournament Relocated to Indianapolis from Chicago
Feb 9, 2021
Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren addresses the media in Indianapolis, Thursday, March 12, 2020, after it was announced that the remainder of the Big Ten Conference men's basketball tournament will be cancelled. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
The 2021 Big Ten men's college basketball tournament has been relocated to Indianapolis after originally being scheduled for Chicago, the conference announced Tuesday.
"The decision to relocate the tournament to Indianapolis was based on multiple factors. First and foremost was the health and safety of student-athletes, coaches, officials and conference constituents," the Big Ten said in a statement. "Hosting both the men's and women's basketball tournaments in the same city allows for cohesive testing and medical protocols for both events, as well as centralized accommodations surrounding the competition venues."
The Big Ten women's basketball tournament was already slated to be held in Indianapolis, which will become a central hub for college basketball in March. The city and its surrounding areas are set to host the 2021 men's NCAA tournament.
Indianapolis also serves as the home of Big Ten headquarters. The conference says it plans to hold the 2023 men's conference championship in Chicago.
For players on contending Big Ten teams, this could mean spending nearly a month in a bubble-like environment in the Indianapolis area. The Big Ten tournament is set to take place March 10-14, and the NCAA championship game will not take place until April 5.
