San Diego State players and coaches celebrate after a 62-58 win over Boise State in an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb 27, 2021, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
Are you a trendsetter? Then beat the crowd and jump on the San Diego State bandwagon before it's full.
San Diego State's Tourney History
The Aztecs aren't quite March Madness newbies. They made six consecutive tournament appearances from 2010 to 2015, twice reaching the Sweet 16 as top contenders. However, they've never gone further, and the last try didn't end well.
Last year could have been their golden opportunity. At a dominant 30-2, they ranked No. 6 in the nation before COVID-19 shuttered the campaign. Having once again ended the regular season atop the Mountain West Conference, they'll get another chance to finally reach the Final Four.
This Year's Best Players
It's a team effort for the Aztecs, who possess a deep rotation headlined by upperclassmen.
Seniors Jordan Schakel and Matt Mitchell, both California natives, lead the way in scoring. Inserted into the starting lineup in late January, 5'8" guard Terrell Gomez can also pile up points in bunches. Nathan Mensah provides pivotal interior defense to an otherwise undersized squad.
This isn't the team to watch if scouting future NBA talent, but it's a well-rounded, well-oiled machine.
Why They're Going to Win
San Diego State has the makings of a trendy sleeper pick. Going with the small-conference squad is always fun, but the Aztecs also possess an elite defense and an efficient offense that won't get overmatched on the grand stage.
Don't you want to get in on the ground floor before everyone pretends they were there all along?
David Gaines, 1st Black Coach of California Division 1 Program, Dies at Age 80
Sep 5, 2020
Basketballs fill a net before a second round women's college basketball game between Iowa and Missouri in the NCAA Tournament, Sunday, March 24, 2019, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)
Former Detroit Mercy and San Diego State head men's basketball coach David "Smokey" Gaines died Saturday at the age of 80.
"Our father, David 'Smokey' Gaines transitioned to his eternal resting place this morning. Sunrise: February 27, 1940 - Sunset: September 5, 2020," a Facebook post from Davita Gaines-Stewart said.
Mark Zeigler of the Los Angeles Times noted Gaines suffered a stroke in 2018 and died from complications with liver and brain cancer.
Former San Diego State basketball coach (and Harlem Globetrotter) David "Smokey" Gaines dies. https://t.co/5FaO5qzbBL
Before he was a college basketball coach, Gaines was a sixth-round draft pick of the Detroit Pistons but chose to try out for the Harlem Globetrotters instead. He played for the Globetrotters for four years and was inducted into their "Legends Ring" in 2006.
What's more, Gaines spent part of one season on the Kentucky Colonels of the American Basketball Association.
Current ESPN announcer and then-Detroit Mercy head coach Dick Vitale hired Gaines as an assistant coach on his staff in 1973, and Gaines took over as the head coach four years later when the Pistons hired Vitale. Gaines coached Detroit Mercy for two seasons, going 47-10 and making the NCAA tournament in the second year.
Gaines also coached San Diego State for eight years as the first Black coach of a Division I program in California.
He went 112-117, coached baseball Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn and won a Western Athletic Conference Coach of the Year during the 1984-95 campaign when he led the Aztecs to the NCAA tournament.
San Diego State's One Shining Missed Chance
Apr 3, 2020
San Diego State forward Matt Mitchell (11), right, and Nolan Narain (12) celebrate during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Colorado State Tuesday, Feb. 25, 2020, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)
It was a moment made for March. Sam Merrill, the Mountain West's reigning player of the year, had played 112 minutes of basketball in less than 72 hours. His Utah State Aggies' NCAA tournament hopes were hanging on winning this conference tournament title game against the San Diego State Aztecs. With the score tied, an exhausted Merrill dribbled the ball near midcourt as the clock ticked under 10 seconds.
In November, before the college basketball season began, Utah State had been picked to win the Mountain West. The Aggies were No. 17 in the preseason AP poll. San Diego State, meanwhile, didn't receive a single vote. But it had been the Aztecs' season. They started the year 26-0, climbed to No. 4 in the country and wrapped up the Mountain West regular-season title by the second week of February, with four games left to go. They entered the conference tournament with a 28-1 record and with their eyes on a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
Now, Merrill was trying to carve out any space between himself and KJ Feagin's smothering defense. He tried a couple of crossovers, but Feagin kept a hand in Merrill's pocket. With five seconds left, and Feagin still in his face, Merrill rose up from 25 feet and faded away. He stumbled backward and fell as he watched his shot sail through the net.
The Aztecs had a chance to answer, but star player Malachi Flynn's half-court heave rimmed out. As the buzzer sounded, Aggies bounced across the floor in ecstasy. San Diego State players, stunned, put their hands on their heads and sulked. After the game, in the locker room, Flynn tried to shoulder the blame, but teammates wouldn't let him. By the time their plane had touched down in San Diego that night, they'd resolved to use the loss as an extra incentive to make a deep run in the NCAA tournament. It had stung, but it was a reminder that, moving forward, the season could end at any moment.
"At the time, when you lose that game, you're not thinking it's your last game," said Flynn, a redshirt junior. "We wanted to win, don't get me wrong. But win or lose, we were going to get a really good seed in the tournament, and we were going to have a chance to go far. But I guess the end always comes before you're ready."
Four days later, the sports world came to a complete stop. That Wednesday night, San Diego State coach Brian Dutcher was watching ESPN when he saw the news that Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz had tested positive for the coronavirus. He watched live as the NBA suspended its season. He and his players had already prepared themselves to play the tournament without fans. When he shared that news, he told them that he'd been part of a lot of great firsts in his career, and his next one would be to lead a team to the Final Four without fans for the first time. It was a journey that could have culminated in Atlanta this weekend. But that night, he was less sure of what to say. He pulled out his phone. His fingers hovered over the keyboard.
When compared to the other costs of the coronavirus, sports cancelations can seem trivial. Many have died. Many more have been infected or affected, physically, financially or emotionally. Dutcher knew his players would find perspective, but he also didn't want to dismiss their disappointment or pain. This San Diego State team had been special. It had been the last unbeaten program in college basketball for a month. It had set a school-record 26-game winning streak and had been the first team in the country to notch 30 wins. And it was about to have a chance to make a Final Four run without leaving the state of California.
The NCAA wouldn't make an official announcement until the next day, but Dutcher knew what Gobert's diagnosis meant. He texted his players to warn them: The season was likely over. He asked them to come by his office one by one the next day.
Though stunned in the Mountain West Conference title game, the Aztecs felt the loss would fuel a long NCAA tournament run that the school was denied.
"I didn't spend any time feeling sorry for myself," Dutcher said. "I felt awful for the players. As a coach, you have the chance to go to another tournament. But so many of our players had never been to the tournament. For them to go 30-2 and not have a chance to go to the Dance was really sad."
By the time the players started streaming into his office early Thursday afternoon on the West Coast, the news was official. The Aztecs had accomplished so much more than anyone outside Southern California had expected before the season began, but they wouldn't have the chance to make history.
"It hurt," Flynn said. "It hurt a lot. We'd heard all year that we weren't playing the best competition, that we weren't as good as our record. It gave us an edge. The last loss gave us another edge. We were ready to prove how good we were. We would have proved it."
Two years ago, Malachi Flynn typed a paragraph on his Notes app, took a screenshot of it and hit send on the tweet announcing he would transfer. In high school, he'd received scarcely any Division I interest. But he'd developed into an elite scorer in two years at Washington State and wanted to continue to develop at a school where he could also win. Brian Dutcher was the first coach to come visit him in Pullman. As they watched film, Dutcher told Flynn how far he and the Aztecs could go together. They'd made the NCAA tournament seven of the previous 10 seasons, and they'd do that—and then some—with Flynn in the fold.
When Dutcher left Pullman and flew to Tacoma to meet with Flynn's family on his own, Flynn was convinced. After sitting out last season because of transfer rules, Flynn became one of four key fresh faces for the Aztecs this season. The team also picked up Feagin (Santa Clara) and Yanni Wetzell (Vanderbilt) as grad transfers, and added Trey Pulliam from the junior college ranks. Dutcher had assembled a Frankenstein's monster of a roster, and he hoped it'd be just as scary.
"All of them wanted to win more than anything," Dutcher said. "That's what made this team special. They sacrificed what they were. Trey had started almost every game in junior college. KJ had averaged 18 points a game. Malachi had taken like 700 shots in two seasons. They all sacrificed something individually so that together we could be something special."
Dutcher first started sensing that his team could be special after coming from behind to beat BYU on the road in the second game of the season. Then, when the Aztecs played in the Las Vegas Invitational during Feast Week in late November and beat Creighton and Iowa by double digits, he was convinced. So were his players. "We beat these really good teams in hostile environments before we'd even really formed our identity," said Wetzell, a forward. "Then we kept winning and we really found ourselves. We had a really good shot of going all the way with this team."
They entered 2020 with a perfect 13-0 record. They began conference play by going 15-0 and beating their opponents by an average of 14.5 points. Before the championship game against Utah State, the Aztecs only lost once, to top-100 team UNLV by three points. They were one of only four teams to finish in the top 15 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency on kenpom.com. And they also had one big advantage going into the Big Dance. After missing 19 games because of a blood clot in his lungs, 6'10" center Nathan Mensah was expected back in the lineup in time for the tournament.
"It might have been our year," Dutcher said. "I thought we had a chance. A really good chance. It's the NCAA tournament, so you can't predict what will happen. But our metrics were high. And no one adds a piece like Nathan—a rim protector with a 7'4" wingspan—during the tournament. People wouldn't have been able to bully us. We were going to be the bullies."
Brian Dutcher developed a belief that his San Diego State team could be special when it posted a handful of impressive wins over the likes of Creighton and Iowa soon after the season began.
But his team's last moment together wasn't cutting down the nets after a championship or even a regional. The Aztecs didn't get the chance to qualify for the Elite Eight for the first time in school history. Instead, the last time they met together was on that Tuesday, March 10, after practice. That's when Dutcher told them they'd play the NCAA tournament without fans. By the time the everything was canceled two days later, the university had also axed all spring sports, barred meetings of more than 10 and moved classes online.
"We were a Final Four team," junior forward Matt Mitchell said. "At the very worst, we were going to the Elite Eight. We were strangers at the beginning of the year, but we got on the same page so quickly. We would have come together in the tournament and stuck like glue."
Instead, players had to say their goodbyes in passing as they slipped in and out of Dutcher's office or met on campus for meals. Even in the best years, your time to shine in college basketball is only ever a single moment. But you transfer schools and move hundreds of miles and practice thousands of hours and sweat through dozens of games for that one fleeting moment anyway. What happens when it's denied?
By the next week, when the NCAA tournament had been scheduled to tip off, San Diego State's team had separated. With practices canceled, many packed their bags and headed home to be with their families as they finished their courses online. Others remained behind.
Matt Mitchell is from nearby Riverside and can drive home whenever he's ready. For now, he's been running around campus with his almost two-year-old pit bull and lab mix, named Belle, and playing a board game based on an episode of the dystopian television show Black Mirror. Yanni Wetzell and his roommate (and teammate), Nolan Narain, have also stayed in town. Wetzell, who is from New Zealand, and Narain, a Canadian, were hoping to see their families for the first time in months at the NCAA tournament. Instead, they're thousands of miles away and wondering, like so many, if returning home would risk harming their loved ones.
In order to get the guys out of their house and to continue to feed them, every day a coach will meet the players who are still in town at a restaurant to buy them dinner. Last week, when Wetzell saw Dutcher at Chipotle, he asked his normally clean-shaven coach if the store had run out of razors. The players can't eat together because of California's lockdown, but seeing friendly faces—from the safe distance of six feet—has been a salve.
But the food does come with a catch. On the first day that the coaches announced the new meal plan, Mensah casually mentioned in a group text that food would be for returning players only. It was the beginning of a series of jokes that haven't relented, in part aimed at trying to convince Flynn to return for another season at San Diego State.
ALBUQUERQUE, NEW MEXICO - JANUARY 29: Malachi Flynn #22 of the San Diego State Aztecs drives against Corey Manigault #1 of the New Mexico Lobos during their game at Dreamstyle Arena - The Pit on January 29, 2020 in Albuquerque, New Mexico. (Photo by Sam
Flynn, the breakout star of the team, finished the season averaging 17.6 points and a nearly 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Once an unheralded recruit, Flynn is now a projected second-round draft pick. With the NBA season suspended, neither he nor any other draft hopefuls know what the next few months will hold. Dutcher has encouraged him to put his name in for the draft to get feedback from NBA teams, and his teammates support him, too. But they want him back to finish what this team started.
"It definitely gives you something to think about it," Flynn said. "You grow up wanting to play in the NCAA tournament. You see guys go from good players to household names. It happens every March. And you want that chance, too. It's why you go to a school like San Diego State. I think we were getting ready to go to a Final Four, and after that happens, anything can happen. It sucks 'cause everyone can say that. But what we did this season speaks for itself."
He has found some relief from the otherwise relentless wondering. He went home to Tacoma last week and located something he's been hunting since the season abruptly ended. Through a friend of a friend—he won't say who and he won't say where, for fear that the whole operation would shut down if he's discovered—he has gained access to an indoor basketball court. He goes every day and either has the place to himself or brings along his brother Isaiah. One day, he hopes, life will return to normal and he'll be able to make decisions about his future with a calm heart and a clear mind. For now, though, it feels good just to play again.
ESPN's Jay Bilas joins David Gardner on the How to Survive Without Sports podcast to discuss the NCAA's decision to cancel the tournament, how the NBA draft process could change and if the NCAA has already passed the tipping point of letting players profit from their names and likenesses.
Undefeated San Diego State Loses in Stunning 66-63 Upset to Unranked UNLV
Feb 22, 2020
UNLV guard Amauri Hardy (3) shoots over San Diego State forward Nolan Narain (12) during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Feb. 22, 2020, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)
The last unbeaten team in Division I men's basketball fell Saturday as UNLV beat No. 4 San Diego State 66-63 in San Diego's Viejas Arena.
The Aztecs entered the game with a perfect 26-0 record and 15-0 mark in Mountain West Conference play, but San Diego State shot just 38.9 percent from the field (8-of-27 from three-point range) en route to its first loss of the year.
Elijah Mitrou-Long led the Runnin' Rebels with 19 points off the bench, and Amauri Hardy added 17. Bryce Hamilton added an 11-point, 10-rebound double-double.
Malachi Flynn paced the Aztecs with 24 points, nine rebounds and six assists. Matt Mitchell scored 13 points, and Jordan Schakel added 10 points and nine boards.
UNLV and San Diego State were tied at 11 early in the first half, but the Runnin' Rebels unleashed a 26-14 run to take a 37-25 lead into halftime.
Mitrou-Long, a graduate transfer from Texas, scored 11 points during that stretch, including a four-point play. He capped the half's scoring with this steal-and-score:
UNLV opened a 14-point lead in the second half, but San Diego State chipped away at the lead and found itself down 58-51 following a KJ Feagin three-pointer.
SDSU played great defense on the other end, but Mitrou-Long worked some magic and hit a running jumper as the shot clock expired to give UNLV a nine-point edge:
However, Flynn scored eight points and dished an assist in a 12-4 run to pare UNLV's edge down to 64-63 with 17 seconds remaining. He hit a step-back three and found Aguek Arop for an easy two during that stretch:
Mitrou-Long responded with two free throws, leading to SDSU having a chance to tie the game. However, a deep Flynn three was off the mark.
SDSU still had a chance for the win after Mitchell intercepted a deep inbounds pass in SDSU's half of the court, but his half-court heave at the buzzer did not connect.
UNLV moved to 15-14 overall and 10-6 in conference, good enough for a three-way tie for fourth. SDSU is 26-1 overall and 15-1 in-conference.
Video: Watch Kawhi Leonard's Jersey Be Retired by San Diego State
Feb 1, 2020
FILE- In this March 12, 2011, file photo, San Diego State's Kawhi Leonard gestures after hitting a 3-point basket during the first half of an NCAA college basketball championship game against BYU in the Mountain West Conference tournament in Las Vegas. Nine years after Leonard helped lead San Diego State to national prominence, the Aztecs will honor the greatest player in program history by hoisting his No. 15 jersey into the rafters at Viejas Arena, high above Steve Fisher Court on Saturday, Feb. 1, 2020. ((AP Photo/Julie Jacobson, File)
Before Kawhi Leonard was an NBA champion and on the short list of the league's best players, he was the leader of the San Diego State Aztecs.
Now his No. 15 jersey will never be worn again at the school.
— San Diego State Men's Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) February 2, 2020
San Diego State retired his jersey as part of Saturday's game against Utah State at Viejas Arena. He is the first player in Aztecs history to have his jersey retired, and he earned the distinction with just two collegiate seasons.
Leonard arrived at San Diego State as a 4-star prospect in the class of 2009, per 247Sports' composite rankings, and won the Mountain West Freshman of the Year behind 12.7 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.4 steals per game. He also led the Aztecs to the NCAA men's tournament for just the sixth time in program history that season.
While his freshman campaign was impressive, he took a significant leap in 2010-11.
Leonard averaged 15.5 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 1.4 steals per game and was named second-team All-American and first-team All-Mountain West Conference. He also led the Aztecs to 20 straight victories to start the season and a spot in the Sweet 16.
They lost to the eventual national-champion Connecticut Huskies, but they also won a March Madness game for the first time in program history.
San Diego State made the NCAA tournament the four seasons after Leonard left as well, advancing as far as the Sweet 16 in 2014. It is now a national title contender with an undefeated record and the No. 4 ranking in the Associated Press Top 25.
It is not hyperbole to suggest Leonard helped set the program on its course, considering the success it enjoyed while he was there and in the subsequent years compared to before his arrival.
He was honored accordingly Saturday.
Undefeated San Diego State Aztecs Are a Legitimate Threat to Run the Table
Jan 10, 2020
FILE - In this Jan. 4, 2020 file photo, San Diego State guard Malachi Flynn (22) brings the ball down the court against Utah State during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game in Logan, Utah. San Diego State basketball is the hottest ticket in town again. The undefeated Aztecs, who have climbed to No. 7 in The Associated Press poll, are playing as well as they did during their two Sweet 16 seasons during the last decade, including when Kawhi Leonard was the big star. This time it's a trio of transfers powering the Aztecs (15-0, 4-0 Mountain West Conference), who along with Auburn remain the nation's only undefeated teams. (AP Photo/Eli Lucero, File)
Brian Dutcher has been patiently waiting for decades to lead San Diego State men's basketball to this point.
There are longtime assistants, and then there's Dutcher, who spent 27 seasons as Steve Fisher's right-hand man—nine years at Michigan followed by 18 with San Diego State.
Now in his third season as a head coach, the 60-year-old who was at least partially credited with bringing together the Fab Five in the early 1990s has a fabulous squad of his own, legitimately threatening to carry an undefeated record into the 2020 NCAA tournament.
And perhaps even through it.
There are two undefeated teams remaining in men's college basketball, and we certainly mean no disrespect to 14-0 Auburn by homing in on 16-0 San Diego State here. But Auburn has to play at Florida next weekend, and it has two games against Kentucky in February. Throw in two games each against Tennessee, Alabama and Georgia, plus the SEC tournament, and we're going to have plenty of opportunities in the next two months to try to figure out just how legitimate the Tigers are.
They're good, but it's extremely unlikely they'll run the table.
San Diego State, though?
It could (maybe even should?) be 32-0 on Selection Sunday, and there would still be people questioning whether the Aztecs are for real. Those people will cite the lack of competition in the Mountain West Conference and the fact that SDSU has never been to the Final Four as reasons to cast aspersions on this year's team.
You'll probably recognize it as the way folks used to talk about Gonzaga before it finally almost won a national championship.
Fittingly similar to that Gonzaga team from a few years ago, San Diego State has built this juggernaut on the backs of transfers. Where the Zags had Nigel Williams-Goss (Washington), Jordan Mathews (California) and Johnathan Williams III (Missouri) in the starting lineup all season long, the Aztecs have Malachi Flynn (Washington State), Yanni Wetzell (Vanderbilt) and KJ Feagin (Santa Clara) leading the team in minutes played.
KJ Feagin
Feagin has been nowhere near the player Dutcher and Co. thought they were getting. He shot 49 percent from three-point range as a sophomore and averaged 17.5 points per game as a junior, but he is sitting at 33.9 percent from the field through 16 games and has been held to seven points or fewer in each of his last seven games against Division I opponents.
But while offensive rating, PER and basically any advanced stat you can find paints the picture of a guy who is doing more harm than good, Feagin has been—as the San Diego Union-Tribune's Mark Zeigler put it—SDSU's Mr. Intangible.
"We'll get done with a game and not think he played particularly well, like most fans, because the ball didn't go in," Dutcher told Zeigler. "Then I'll go back and watch the tape and say, 'Wow, what a great play defensively. Wow, what a great drive and kick.'"
If he ever flips the switch and starts making shots at a respectable clip again, San Diego State's championship potential grows even stronger.
Despite Feagin's shooting and turnover woes, the Aztecs are having an atypically efficient season on offense. They entered play Thursday ranked 33rd in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, which is their best ranking since finishing the 2010-11 season in 28th place. (That was the year Kawhi Leonard led them to a No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament and a trip to the Sweet 16 before running into Kemba Walker and UConn, the eventual national champs.)
That's because four Aztecs are averaging at least 10 points per game, led by Flynn, who has been the best player in the country that not enough people are talking about.
The former Cougar is averaging 16.1 points and 4.9 assists per game with a 3.3 assist-to-turnover ratio and more steals per game (1.7) than turnovers (1.5). He was outstanding on back-to-back nights against Creighton and Iowa while propelling San Diego State to a surprise championship in the Las Vegas Invitational, and he has continued to thrive in Mountain West Conference play.
Oddly enough, his worst performance of the season also featured one of his top highlights.
— San Diego State Men's Basketball (@Aztec_MBB) December 8, 2019
Flynn shot 3-of-13 from the field against San Jose State in what is still his only game this season with more turnovers than assists, but his three-pointer with less than one second remaining was the difference in a 59-57 rock fight.
If he misses that shot and San Diego State loses a home game to annual Mountain West bottom-feeder San Jose State, the Aztecs never become "a thing." They weren't even ranked at the time of that Dec. 8 game, and they certainly wouldn't have climbed all the way to their current position of No. 7 in the latest AP poll.
Despite Flynn's stats and heroics, there's some sort of unofficial/unconscious rule in college hoops that we're only allowed to fall in love as a nation with one non-major conference player per season. And sadly for Flynn's National Player of the Year marketability, Dayton's Obi Toppin locked down this year's honor during the Maui Invitational. Just let it be known that Flynn has been especially impressive, too.
As always, though, the biggest key to San Diego State's success has been its defense.
Over the final 11 years of Fisher's tenure, the Aztecs often couldn't hit water in the ocean on offense. But they still averaged nearly 26 wins per year and had a streak of six straight NCAA tournament appearances during that time because they consistently made life miserable for the opposing team's offense. San Diego State ranked in the top 60 in adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjDE) in each of those years, including four seasons in the top seven.
That discipline on defense has persisted under Dutcher, as the Aztecs currently rank 14th in AdjDE with a rating of 88.2—their best in KenPom history. They've held half of their opponents to 52 points or fewer and have yet to allow more than 73 points in a game.
That's quite the turnaround from last season when six of their first 14 opponents put up at least 81 points.
SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher
Even in their worst defensive effort of this season in terms of points allowed and points allowed per possession, they still beat Iowa with defense, holding star big man Luka Garza to nine points and eight rebounds—which are still season-worst marks in both categories for Garza.
If the Aztecs can slow that guy down, what can't they do?
Framed another way, if Iowa—ranked fifth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency—couldn't figure out this defense, what hope is there for the rest of the Mountain West Conference?
Maybe Air Force has a prayer. The Falcons host the Aztecs on Feb. 8 and currently boast the nation's seventh-best effective field-goal percentage. They have made at least 13 threes in four of their past eight games. But they are a train wreck on defense, so it's likely San Diego State will just win in a higher-scoring blowout than usual.
Road games against New Mexico (Jan. 29) and Nevada (Feb. 29) theoretically could cause problems for the Aztecs, but both of those teams have already lost to San Jose State in 2020. If those are the biggest hurdles standing between Dutcher's guys and an undefeated regular season, it's hard to envision them tripping at any point.
KenPom gives SDSU a 7.5 percent chance of going undefeated, but it also puts its win probability at 68 percent or greater for each remaining game. At any rate, San Diego State has already won its four toughest games of the season—at BYU, at Utah State and the games against Iowa and Creighton in Las Vegas.
You might be thinking, You seriously expect us to trust anyone this season? Need I mention Stephen F. Austin and Evansville beating Duke and Kentucky, respectively?
Fair point, but here's a counterpoint: Without anything resembling a major-conference juggernaut this season, isn't this the ideal setup for an undefeated mid-major national champion?
If the Aztecs do run the table, they are a shoo-in for a No. 1 seed, as they're currently No. 2 in the NET rankings. Perhaps they'll get hosed like Wichita State did in 2014, drawing a way-better-than-its-resume Kentucky as a No. 8 seed in the second round, but they wouldn't need to face a No. 1-3 seed until at least the Elite Eight.
And, who knows, in this marginally-more-unpredictable-than-usual season, the rest of the bracket could come crumbling down like it did for that Leonard-led Aztecs team in 2011, when the regions aside from San Diego State's sent their No. 4, No. 8 and No. 11 seeds to the Final Four.
Even if things hold to form and they run into a Duke, Gonzaga or Kansas in the Final Four, the Aztecs could win.
If you don't believe me, make it a point to watch this team as soon and as often as you can. Saturday's game against Boise State is on ESPN3. They'll play on ESPN2 against Fresno State on Tuesday. And if you get CBS Sports Network, just about every other SDSU game will be on that channel.
If nothing else, you'll be able to impress your friends with your random Aztecs knowledge when they make their way to the Elite Eight for the first time in program history.
