Elite 8 2021: Updated Odds and Predictions for Tuesday's NCAA Tournament Games
Mar 30, 2021
Gonzaga forward Drew Timme (2) dunks against Creighton in the second half of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Sunday, March 28, 2021. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)
The Gonzaga Bulldogs and Michigan Wolverines can join the Baylor Bears as No. 1 seeds to qualify for the Final Four on Tuesday.
Just like Baylor and the Houston Cougars on Monday, Gonzaga and Michigan are comfortable favorites against their Elite Eight foes.
Gonzaga will face what many believe is its first true test of the NCAA men's basketball tournament versus the USC Trojans and likely top-three NBA draft pick Evan Mobley.
Michigan can also end a deep run by a Pac-12 team on Tuesday by defeating the UCLA Bruins. Although the Wolverines are the smaller favorite of the two higher seeds, they may have the easier path to covering and winning inside Lucas Oil Stadium.
Tuesday Elite Eight Schedule
No. 1 Gonzaga (-8) vs. No. 6 USC (Over/Under: 153) (7:15 p.m. ET, TBS)
No. 1 Michigan (-7) vs. No. 11 UCLA (O/U: 135.5) (9:57 p.m. ET, TBS)
USC will be toughest team Gonzaga has faced to date in the NCAA tournament, and possibly the entire season.
Mobley is the best individual talent the Zags will go head-to-head with. They also played National Player of the Year favorite Luka Garza in December.
Mobley is more athletic than Garza, and his career has a much higher ceiling than the Iowa Hawkeyes big man.
The 7-footer has not been a dominant scoring force down low in the Big Dance because the guards around him have played so well.
That may have to change on Tuesday in Mobley's head-to-head matchup with Drew Timme, who is one of the front-runners for the tournament's Most Outstanding Player.
Timme has 52 points in his last two games, and he has been able to control paint matchups all season with his positioning.
Even if Timme matches Mobley's production down low, Gonzaga could be in good shape because of its strengths elsewhere on the court.
Mark Few's team held its three NCAA tournament foes to 71 points or fewer. Its perimeter defense could be the key to adding USC to that total.
The Creighton Bluejays shot 5-of-23 from three-point range in the Sweet 16, and the Oklahoma Sooners made just five of their 16 three-point attempts in the second round.
USC has been hard to slow down from beyond the arc. It continued its hot streak with 10 three-point makes in its win over the Oregon Ducks.
If Gonzaga limits the output of Tahj Eaddy, Isaiah White and Drew Peterson, it should gain the edge in the contest.
It may take a while for that to happen since USC has come out hot in its three games, but Gonzaga has shown an ability all season to pull away from all of its foes, and that should be the case in the second half.
Michigan (-7) vs. UCLA
UCLA's mismatch with Michigan should finally be the one that ends its Cinderella run.
Many thought the Bruins would not survive the Sweet 16 clash with the Alabama Crimson Tide, but the SEC champion dealt with some foul issues and was not as accurate from three-point range as it typically is.
Similar to the other No. 1 seeds left in the NCAA tournament, Michigan does not rely on a single asset to put away teams.
The Wolverines play complete team basketball, which was on display in the Sweet 16 win over the Florida State Seminoles.
Michigan has a handful of shooters that can get hot at any instant, a star freshman in the paint and a slew of tough defenders that have picked up the void left by the injured Isaiah Livers.
Look for Franz Wagner and Eli Brooks to be the X-factors once again on defense. The two have stepped up in Livers' absence to make life difficult on opponents.
In the second-round win over the LSU Tigers, Brooks and Wagner played strong defense down the stretch and also combined for 36 points.
If the Wolverines get that type of production from the duo on Tuesday, UCLA may not have a shot to be competitive.
Michigan has the defenders to shut down Johnny Juzang and the other UCLA guards, and Dickinson gives it an advantage down low.
Since the Wolverines returned from their program-wide shutdown on February 14, they have held opponents below 70 points in eight of their 10 wins.
Additionally, Michigan held three opponents beneath the 70-point mark in the four games Livers missed with a foot injury.
If the Wolverines continue at that defensive pace, they should slow down the No. 11 seed and set up a potential Final Four with four top-two seeds.
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Oregon State Announcer Mike Parker 'Fine' After Being Attacked in Indianapolis
Mar 30, 2021
Oregon State guard Ethan Thompson (5) passes around Loyola Chicago guard Lucas Williamson (1) during the first half of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Saturday, March 27, 2021, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
Oregon State men's basketball announcer Mike Parker said Sunday that he was attacked while walking through Indianapolis on Saturday prior to the Oregon State Beavers' 65-58 win over the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament.
According to Nick Daschel of The Oregonian, Parker said a man attacked him on Canal Walk downtown, leaving him with a torn shirt and abrasions on his elbow.
Parker further elaborated on his condition, saying: "I'm a little sore from the fall, but I'm fine. I had no issues during the game."
The 62-year-old Parker noted that he enjoys walking the cities he announces in, and he decided to do so Saturday just hours before the Beavers and Ramblers clashed for a spot in the Elite Eight.
Parker said he observed a man "probably in his mid 20s, kind of scraggly, talking strangely to an older gentleman," and the man then crossed a bridge and approached him.
The announcer said the man asked him what was in the bag he was carrying. When Parker said it was work papers, the man allegedly continued to press him and asked if there was a bomb in the bag.
Parker said the man ran after him and tackled him, almost causing him to fall in the water. Police officers on bikes in the area and were said to have come to Parker's aid.
The voice of Oregon State men's basketball, football and baseball said he told the officers he didn't want to press charges against the man and is unsure what happened to him.
Parker, who is a graduate of the University of Oregon, has been calling Oregon State athletics for 20 years, and he had one of the biggest calls of his career Saturday.
With their win over Loyola-Chicago, the Beavers became only the second No. 12 seed in NCAA tournament history to reach the Elite Eight.
It also marked Oregon State's first trip to the Elite Eight since 1982 and its first official Elite Eight appearance since 1966, as the 1982 Elite Eight team had wins vacated because of NCAA sanctions.
The Beavers fell short in their attempt to extend their Cinderella run to the Final Four, though, as they lost 67-61 to the second-seeded Houston Cougars on Monday.
The final two tickets to the 2021 men's Final Four will be handed out Tuesday night. Oddsmakers already have a hunch where they will go. Two top seeds are on the Tuesday slate...
No. 1 Baylor Beats No. 3 Arkansas to Advance to 1st Men's Final Four Since 1950
Mar 30, 2021
Baylor forward Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua (23) dunks on Arkansas forward Justin Smith (0) during the first half of an Elite 8 game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium, Monday, March 29, 2021, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
The No. 1 Baylor Bears are bound for the men's Final Four for the first time since 1950 after knocking off No. 3 Arkansas, 81-72, at Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday night.
Head coach Scott Drew twice brought teams to the Elite Eight at Baylor, only to be sent home one win away from college basketball's biggest stage. Finally, in his 18th year with the program, he's broken through. Along the way, the Bears became the second team to clinch a berth in the Final Four following a Houston victory earlier on Monday. Baylor is also the first No. 1 seed in the tournament to reach the Final Four.
No. 1 Michigan and No. 1 Gonzaga will attempt to do the same Tuesday.
The Bears will face No. 2 Houston in the national semifinal this Saturday.
The first Elite Eight game on Monday night saw Houston hold off a furious comeback bid by Oregon State. Baylor's MaCio Teague did the same nearly by himself.
The senior guard was absolutely electric against the Razorbacks, pouring in at least 22 points for the second time this tournament and knocking down backbreaking shots just when it seemed like Arkansas had swung the momentum its way.
At no point was that more apparent than when Teague drilled a three-pointer to put Baylor up nine with 4:48 to play as the Hogs' run continued. Under a minute later, it was Teague again in the corner knocking down a three to put the Bears up 11.
Baylor has no shortage of players who can take over games at any point—and this season has given plenty of examples of that. It was clear early in the first half someone on Baylor would be required to do so again if the Bears were going to reach the Final Four after Davion Mitchell found himself in early foul trouble.
Mitchell has been one of the best shooters and passers in the Bears offense all year. After picking up two fouls in the first half, BU coach Scott Drew didn't hesitate to keep him on the floor. That Mitchell ended the first frame with three fouls was a risk worth taking.
Teague made it so.
In a postseason performance where four Bears scored in double figures, it was who Teague shined brightest, scoring a game-high 22 points with three three-pointers and two blocks for good measure.
Not even an Arkansas comeback attempt could slow him down.
That's not hyperbole. Monday night in Indianapolis proved it.
When Drew arrived in Waco nearly two decades ago, Dave Bliss had just resigned amid allegations of numerous NCAA violations.
Drew won just eight games in his first season. It would be four more years before the Bears finished over .500 again, but Drew kept molding the program in his image. Recruiting the state of Texas hard, scouring for college transfers and learning how to coach in the Big 12 against the likes of Bill Self, Bob Knight, Lon Kruger and Bob Huggins.
It was an ever-evolving chess match, and Drew was always two moves behind. Until Monday. Until arguably the best team in Baylor history lifted Drew to the Final Four for the first time in his career.
And Drew had to coach his best for 40 minutes to get them there.
Against Arkansas and head coach Eric Musselman, the Bears fought off a furious comeback attempt in the second half after watching their 18-point lead cut down to just four points with under eight minutes remaining. Previous Baylor teams had folded in similar moments. Before Monday, Drew had twice fallen in the Elite Eight and on four occasions failed to escape the tournament's opening weekend.
Not once did the Bears seem to lose their confidence or composure. Not once did a player seem afraid of the moment. It was all a reflection of Drew.
The coach took over a program as broken as any in NCAA history and got it back to a Final Four. It's as much his moment as anyone else's.
What's Next?
The Final Four begins at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday with both semifinals played back-to-back. Baylor will face No. 2 Houston for a chance to cut down the nets next Monday in Indianapolis.
Houston Will Finally Face Challenges After Historically 'Easy' Final Four Path
Mar 30, 2021
Houston guard Marcus Sasser (0) reacts to a basket against Oregon State during the second half of an Elite 8 game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium, Monday, March 29, 2021, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Darron Cummings)
The Houston Cougars are headed to the Final Four for the first time since 1984 following their 67-61 Monday night victory over the Oregon State Beavers.
After leading 34-17 at halftime, Houston allowed Oregon State to claw all the way back to tie the game at 55-55, but the Cougars' prowess both on defense and on the offensive glass was just too much in the end.
Houston also made too many threes against an Oregon State team that had excelled on the defensive perimeter for the past few weeks. Marcus Sasser led all scorers with 20 points and five made triples. Quentin Grimes was close behind, scoring 18 with four made threes. DeJon Jarreau also made a pair in his second straight game with at least nine points, eight rebounds and eight assists.
With the victory, Houston became the first team in NCAA tournament history to reach the national semifinals by going through four consecutive double-digit seeds.
The combined seed total of opponents Houston has faced (No. 15 Cleveland State, No. 10 Rutgers, No. 11 Syracuse and No. 12 Oregon State) is 48, and that is just the sixth time a team has faced a seed total of 45 or greater in its first four tournament games.
1990 UNLV faced a 16-8-12-11 path (47 total)
1991 North Carolina faced a 16-9-12-10 path (47 total)
2001 Michigan State faced a 16-9-12-11 path (48 total)
2008 Kansas faced a 16-8-12-10 path (46 total)
2011 Kansas faced a 16-9-12-11 path (48 total), but it lost to No. 11 seed VCU
(Let the record show that Gonzaga's four previous trips to the Elite Eight each featured a combined seed total below 40, and this year's is 35. When I tweeted about Houston's seed path Saturday night, there were a whole bunch of "Well, that's just an average year for Gonzaga" responses and, come on, just stop already.)
That cupcake path is going to be a narrative for the next few days, but don't let it detract from how good this Houston team is.
After beating Texas Tech 64-53 on a neutral court in late November, the Cougars entered December ranked in the top 15 on KenPom and never once abandoned that post. All season long, they have had one of the most efficient defenses and one of the most relentless frontcourts of offensive rebounders, and that has continued through the first four rounds of this tournament.
Despite upsetting three very impressive teams in Tennessee, Oklahoma State and Loyola-Chicago, Oregon State looked hopelessly overmatched most of Monday night. The Beavers switched up their defensive alignments frequently, trying anything and everything to push Houston out of its comfort zone. However, open looks were all but impossible for Oregon State to come by, and it simply could not buy a defensive rebound when it needed one most.
And yet, the Beavers scored more points (61) against Houston than any other team has thus far in this dance. That's a testament to how suffocating this defense typically is.
Houston's DeJon Jarreau
Houston now ranks in the top 15 in the nation in all of the following on defense: steal percentage, block percentage, three-point percentage, two-point percentage, effective field-goal percentage and even free-throw percentage.
That last one might seem more random than defensive, but the Cougars make teams work so hard for every inch of space that even the free-throw strokes look fatigued after a while.
Case in point: Oregon State's Ethan Thompson was 25-of-26 from the charity stripe in his first three games of the tournament, but he shot just 5-of-8 against Houston. Maurice Calloo had not missed a free throw since early February and was 27-of-30 on the season. He missed two of his five tries against the Cougars. They just wear you out.
Perhaps most impressive and unexpected has been Houston's ability to swarm without fouling. Putting opponents at the free-throw line was a common problem during the regular season—frankly, the only significant complaint one could make about this defense—but the Cougars have committed just 14.8 fouls per game during the tournament.
Oh, and the offensive rebounds, otherwise known as the defense played on offense.
Houston had a completely unexpected off night in that department in the Sweet 16 against a Syracuse team that almost always struggles on the defensive glass. The Cougars only got back 29.7 percent of their misses in that one. But they corralled 43.2 percent against Rutgers, 48.5 percent against Cleveland State and 46.3 percent against Oregon State.
All told, Houston has grabbed 62 offensive rebounds while only allowing 86 defensive rebounds. And those second/third/fourth chances usually make a colossal difference for a team that is now 28-3.
It's all remarkable stuff.
But as has been the refrain all season long with the Cougars: Who have they faced?
Every other team that earned a No. 1 or No. 2 seed had at least eight Quadrant 1 wins. All the No. 3 seeds had at least six such victories.
Houston, though?
Just two wins in three tries, and one of those two wins was a road game against NET No. 65 SMU—a team that never felt like a serious threat for an at-large bid. The Cougars had that November win over Texas Tech and no other bragging rights. (TTU's primary power forward, Kevin McCullar, wasn't playing at that point in the season, either, because of a high-ankle sprain.)
Suffice it to say, overall strength of schedule was a huge question mark for the Cougars long before the NCAA tournament began, and this little Waltz of the Creampuffs through the Big Dance has done nothing to change that.
Maybe it would be different if Houston had plowed through its four games the way USC destroyed Drake, Kansas and Oregon en route to the Elite Eight. Instead, the Cougars needed a borderline miraculous comeback against Rutgers and narrowly avoided a complete meltdown against Oregon State.
But if you've been patiently waiting for months to see if Houston can hold its own against some of the best teams in the country, you're in luck.
After four consecutive wins on the game's easy setting, it's time for the Cougars to crank the difficulty level up to expert. To win it all, they'll need to beat Baylor in the Final Four and probably Gonzaga in the national championship—merely the two teams we've been hyping up as national championship co-favorites since before the season began.
If that happens, would anyone seriously still care about how weak this year's AAC was or how favorably that Midwest Region broke for the Cougars?
Of course not. We would spend at least the next decade trying to figure out how Houston—the program that was on the receiving end of one of the wildest national championship upsets of all time in 1983—became the lone hurdle this Gonzaga juggernaut couldn't clear.
These Cougars have the defense to beat anyone. And if they win two more games, the strength of opponents they faced in the previous 31 will be an irrelevant footnote on a historic season.
Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter,@kerrancejames.
Baylor HC Kim Mulkey: NCAA Should 'Dump' COVID-19 Testing at 2021 Final Fours
Mar 29, 2021
Baylor coach Kim Mulkey yells out to her team during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Texas Tech, Wednesday, Feb. 10, 2021, in Lubbock, Texas. (AP Photo/Brad Tollefson)
Following Baylor's loss to Connecticut in the Elite Eight of the NCAA women's basketball tournament, Lady Bears head coach Kim Mulkey advocated for the NCAA to stop COVID-19 testing once the Final Four fields are set.
Mulkey told reporters the organization "need[s] to dump the COVID testing."
"Wouldn't it be a shame to keep COVID testing and then you got kids that end up testing positive or something, and then they don't get to play in the Final Four?" she said. "So, you need to just forget the COVID test and let the four teams that are playing in each Final Four go battle it out."
An NCAA men's tournament game between Oregon and VCU was declared a no-contest due to multiple positive COVID-19 tests within the Rams' traveling party. The Ducks automatically moved on to the second round.
UConn head coach Geno Auriemma also missed his squad's first two games after testing positive for COVID-19 prior to play beginning.
Otherwise, the tournaments have largely been insulated from the pandemic.
The rollout of COVID-19 vaccines continues across the country. However, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, cautioned against what she called "another avoidable surge" of positive cases.
Mulkey's comments Monday would seem to contradict the attitude she expressed after recovering from the virus midway through the season.
"The answer is this: The season will continue on. It's called the almighty dollar," she told reporters in January. "The NCAA has to have the almighty dollar from the men's tournament. The almighty dollar is more important than the health and welfare of me, the players or anybody else."
Houston Holds Off Oregon State, Advances to 1st Men's Final Four Since 1984
Mar 29, 2021
Houston guard Marcus Sasser (0) and Houston forward Reggie Chaney (32) react to a play against Oregon State during the second half of an Elite 8 game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Lucas Oil Stadium, Monday, March 29, 2021, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
For the first time since 1984, the No. 2 Houston Cougars are heading to the Final Four, becoming the first team in the 2021 NCAA men's tournament to clinch a berth after defeating No. 12 Oregon State, 67-61, at Lucas Oil Stadium on Monday.
The Cougars ran through No. 15 Cleveland State, No. 10 Rutgers and No. 11 Syracuse before downing the Beavers, becoming the first team ever to play four double-digit seeds in a single tournament.
Houston will now face the winner of No. 1 Baylor and No. 3 Arkansas in the national semifinal for the right to play for the title next Monday night. After racing out to a 34-17 halftime lead against Oregon State, the Cougars left no doubt that they belong in the Final Four.
One half later, they were cutting down the nets for what's potentially the first of many times over the next week.
Oregon State nearly pulled off one of the most absurd comebacks of the tournament. Maybe with another minute or two on the clock, the Beavers are able to finish it off. Either way, if not for clutch free-throw shooting and solid inbounding players, Houston might not be cutting down the nets in Indianapolis on Monday.
After the Cougars jumped out to a 34-17 halftime lead—OSU spent the last 10 minutes of regulation chipping away until a wild series of events made it a tie game with less than four minutes to play.
The Beavers took off on a 14-3 run that they punctuated with a dunk from Warith Alatishe to cut the deficit to 55-52. The ensuing Houston possession saw the Cougars bank in a three-pointer, only to be called back for a shot-clock violation. Oregon State took advantage immediately with a three of its own from Gianni Hunt to knot things up at 55 apiece.
Thus began the final 3:48 of regulation and a mad scramble by Houston to regain the lead.
The Cougars were only able to do so because of clutch free-throw shooting (16-of-24) down the stretch and a horribly timed mistake by Oregon State.
After going nearly the entire half without committing a turnover, the Beavers finally cracked when Ethan Thompson had the ball roll off his fingertips on a drive to the rim with 48 seconds left and trailing by five. Oregon State had no choice but to foul, giving Houston a chance to create separation at the line, which the Cougars gladly took advantage of.
It's not often—if ever—a Power Five program takes a turn as Cinderella, but there's no question the Beavers deserved that honor this March. After being picked last in the Pac-12, Oregon State won three games in three days to claim the Pac 12 championship title and clinch a berth in the NCAA tournament. Head coach Wayne Tinkle got his team past No. 5 Tennessee, No. 4 Oklahoma State and No. 8 Loyola Chicago.
They came up just short against one of the top teams in the country.
Sasser's Shooting Powers Houston
Marcus Sasser outscored Oregon State's entire starting lineup in the first half 11-7, he led the game with 20 points, and all five makes of his 19 field-goal attempts came from behind the arc.
A 35.2 percent three-point shooter throughout the regular season, the Cougars guard had gone 5-of-22 from behind the arc through the first three rounds. On Monday, he matched that production, going 5-of-13 from distance.
He was going to find his rhythm from deep in the tournament both because his team needed him to and because he was skilled enough to make it happen.
On Monday, he showed just how possible it was.
Sasser is leading the Cougars to the Final Four because he had no hesitation when it came to making big shots. Over 34 minutes against Oregon State, Sasser's most important contributions came when he stepped up to the line—whether it was the arc or the charity stripe.
His five three-pointers were a game high, and his 5-of-6 shooting on free throws made sure the Cougars weren't going to lose this one late.
If he can keep shooting the way he did against OSU, Houston will have plenty more nets to cut down in the coming days.
What's Next?
The Final Four begins Saturday with Houston facing either Baylor or Arkansas at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. The first semifinal game tips off at 5 p.m. ET on CBS.
Paige Bueckers Drops 28 as UConn Edges Baylor to Reach 13th Straight Final Four
Mar 29, 2021
UConn guard Paige Bueckers, center, drives to the basket between Baylor defenders Queen Egbo (25) and DiJonai Carrington (21) during the first half of a college basketball game in the Elite Eight round of the women's NCAA tournament at the Alamodome in San Antonio, Monday, March 29, 2021. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
For the 13th straight year, UConn is headed to the Final Four.
The top-seeded Huskies downed No. 2 Baylor, 69-67, on Monday night, improving to 28-1 behind 28 points from Paige Bueckers.
For the Lady Bears (28-3), DiJonai Carrington had 22 points and seven rebounds, but her potential game-winning shot in heavy traffic fell short.
The Huskies had an early lead that held until the final 3:56 of the half, but Baylor's defense—which posted the top defensive field-goal percentage in the NCAA for the fourth consecutive year at 32.2 percent—got the best of UConn for long periods that limited its dominance in the first half.
The Lady Bears held the Huskies scoreless for the final 3:03 of the half and took a 39-37 lead into the break.
What Baylor had on defense, UConn of course had on offense, led by standout freshman Paige Bueckers, the National Player of the Year. She led UConn with 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting in the first half.
They went on another drought in the third quarter, heading into the final three minutes in a scoring absence that extended back more than five minutes.
An injury to Baylor star DiDi Richards changed the tide at the end of the frame, paving the way for UConn to go on an 8-0 run to get within two heading into the final quarter and then extended it to 19-0 into the final frame to take the lead.
Things looked dangerous yet again as the Huskies were limited for another three-minute stretch at the end, but they held on for the win.
DiJonai Carrington's Fast Start Spoiled by DiDi Richards' Injury
UConn got out to a fast start, but Baylor worked its way back at the end of the first quarter, going on a 10-0 run over a nearly three-minute span to get within two of the Huskies.
But Baylor finally broke through, taking its first lead of the game with 3:56 remaining in the half on a jumper by DiJonai Carrington, who starred on both sides of the ball in the first half. UConn quickly took the lead back, but the momentum was there for Baylor to head into the break up 39-37.
Carrington, who was named the Big 12's Sixth Player of the Year, averaged 13.8 points per game entering Monday. But she dropped 14 in the first half alone (5-of-10 shooting from the field and 3-of-5 from the line) to lead all scorers.
She also grabbed three rebounds and had two steals, tying Richards for a game high at the break.
Richards, the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year, suffered a hamstring injury with 2:37 to go in the third quarter, and her absence immediately changed the course of the game as UConn tied it early in the fourth quarter.
She returned for some minutes in the fourth, but struggled to stop a major run that ultimately sent the Huskies to the win.
What's Next?
UConn's 13th consecutive Final Four appearance will come alongside the winner of Monday's game between No. 3 Arizona and No. 4 Indiana.
Baylor could be back next year with ESPNW's No. 13 recruit, Maryam Dauda, joining the group in 2021.
Only eight teams remain in pursuit of championship bliss. The 2021 men's NCAA Tournament has rolled through three rounds with a wave of upsets, a couple of Cinderella runs and a boatload of wins for the Pac-12...
NCAA Tournament 2021: Ultimate Guide to the Men's Elite Eight
Mar 29, 2021
UCLA guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. (4) and Johnny Juzang (3) celebrate after beating Alabama 88-78 in overtime of a Sweet 16 game in the NCAA men's college basketball tournament at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Sunday, March 28, 2021. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
It's only fitting that the most upset-minded NCAA men's tournament of all time is presided over by the original Cinderella of the sport's modern era.
When Gonzaga reached the Elite Eight in 1999, bluebloods and power conferences were still the only game in town for big-time college basketball, even as more blue-chip players left college early or skipped it altogether. Over the years, Gonzaga transcended underdog status to become a perennial bracket fixture even as other mid-majors like George Mason, VCU, Butler and Loyola-Chicago made their own deep runs in Gonzaga's glass footsteps.
There's a veritable mountain of readily available evidence and analysis to explain why the Bulldogs are the favorites to win it all this year. As the Elite Eight kicks off Monday, those reasons remain intact. It's their title to lose.
And that's perfect for 2021, the year that has broken multiple tournament records for upsets, up to and including this Elite Eight field. (Could Gonzaga be at risk for one itself?)
But this isn't all about Gonzaga. This is about the eight best teams in college basketball playing for a place on the final stage. Storylines and some terrific matchups abound. This is your complete guide to the Elite Eight.
Gonzaga spent much of Sunday's 83-65 win over Creighton in eco mode, converting high-percentage opportunities and conserving its energy for just the right moments.
For the first 23 minutes in historic Hinkle Fieldhouse, Gonzaga's lead hovered reliably between seven and 12. Then suddenly you look again and it's up 23, and the bench-warmers are playing.
Drew Timme
As a team, Gonzaga shot 59.6 percent on 34-of-57 from the floor. The Zags come at you in quiet waves.
Let me put this another way: This game was easy for Gonzaga. The Bulldogs still haven't engaged their highest gear in this tournament. That's scary as they sit three games away from becoming the first undefeated NCAA men's champ since Indiana did it in 1976.
In their way is a USC team rife with its own NBA-level talent (lottery pick center Evan Mobley) and its own momentum.
Representing everyone's new favorite conference, the Pac-12, the Trojans let the world know they were peaking at the right time with a historic 85-51 defeat of Kansas in the round of 32. Facing an undersized and fellow Pac-12 darling Oregon team Sunday, the Trojans cruised to an easy 82-68 win behind a resounding 31-of-54 (57.4 percent) shooting.
Evan Mobley (right)
Mobley and his brother, Isaiah, patrol the paint on both ends. On Sunday, they combined for 23 points, 14 rebounds and eight assists. Clashes with Gonzaga's Drew Timme and Corey Kispert are inevitable. The Trojan backcourt is in excellent shape at the moment, led Sunday by Isaiah White (team-high 22 points on 4-of-5 from deep).
USC actually edges out Gonzaga in team field-goal percentage for the tournament, 53.5 percent to 52.5 percent. It's also a rebounding machine.
Baylor is a great team. So is Michigan. But USC looks like it may have the size, the balance and the momentum to pull off the upset and keep the Bulldogs out of the Final Four. We'll see if Gonzaga can resist a taste of its own historic medicine and advance to the last weekend of the season.
Arkansas' leading scorer, first-team all-SEC guard, SEC Freshman of the Year and likely lottery pick has been steady all season but hasn't been able to find a spark in the tourney. He's averaged 13.7 points in three tournament games, over three points lower than his season average. He needed 20 shots to get to 14 points Saturday in that narrow win against Oral Roberts, missing all three of his threes along the way.
Speaking of threes, Baylor lived by the three this season. On Saturday, the Bears almost died by it—until the team's dynamic duo went to work.
On the season, Baylor shot 41.5 percent from beyond the arc, tops in the nation. In Saturday's game, thanks to a strong defensive effort from the Villanova Wildcats, the Bears shot just 3-of-19. The only reason it didn't sink them was because the Wildcats were just barely better at 3-of-17.
With the threes not falling, Baylor guards Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler used transition and penetration for easier looks. Defensively, they helped force 16 turnovers, including 10 in the second half, to earn the 62-51 win.
It's what you'd expect from these backcourt running mates, both of whom were named to the All-Big 12 first team, with Mitchell named the conference's Defensive Player of the Year. Butler was named a first-team All-American, with Mitchell making third team. Both are also projected to go in the first round of the draft, though not quite as high as Moody.
The 6'6" Moody is a tough cover when he gets rolling, but Mitchell, Butler and Co. are a pack of wolves on defense. Still, if the Razorbacks can get Moody some decent looks and he can see the ball go through the hoop a few times early, that may be the edge the Razorbacks need to pull the upset in what looks like a pretty close contest, with arguably the three best guards in the nation on one court.
Oregon State Shoots for History
Teams: No. 12 Oregon State Beavers (20-12) vs. No. 2 Houston Cougars
The story of the Midwest region and arguably the tournament is Oregon State, which became a true all-time Cinderella on Saturday by turning the tables on Loyola Chicago and riding a stellar defensive effort to a 65-58 victory. With the win, it became just the second men's No. 12 seed ever to make the Elite Eight.
The Beavers led the Ramblers 24-16 at the half. That's a combined 40 at halftime. For newer fans: that's very low. It's actually the lowest halftime point total of the tournament. With no crowd, you could really hear the ball clanging off the rim and bouncing off the side of the backboard and off the deserted popcorn machine in the 17th row.
Ethan Thompson
OSU's outstanding defense may have come as a surprise, but it was appropriate when the Beavers clogged the lane—lol, just a bit of wildlife humor for you—to force Loyola Chicago to shoot over them, which the Ramblers were unable to do. They only managed 18-of-54 shooting from the field and 5-of-23 from deep.
Eventually, Oregon State's top performers got going. Guard Ethan Thompson played like the All-Pac 12 first-teamer that he is, leading all scorers with 22 points on 6-of-13 shooting.
On the other side, the Cougars have made the Big Dance every season since 2017-18 but never past the Sweet 16. They've slowly built their reputation as top-notch defensive stoppers (11th in KenPom defensive rankings this year) and the class of the American Athletic Conference.
Houston had offensive problems and struggled against the Syracuse zone. The shot selection was off, and shot-making was streaky. This may have been more a function of the Orange's downright bad shooting night, but Houston still held them to 28 percent shooting. Most notably, given that they entered the game leading the tourney field in three-pointers, it was amazing that the Cougars held the Orange to only five threes on 23 attempts.
Win this next game, and Houston is on the cusp of national powerhouse status. It will have to knock off the tournament darlings, on a mission to become the first men's No. 12 seed to make the Final Four. Only four No. 11 seeds have done it, just to further illustrate how rare this would be.
If Oregon State can once again find that extra defensive gear and push Houston's offense into the deep freeze, its magical pumpkin coach will roll into uncharted territory.
In one corner you have Michigan, the Big Ten regular-season conference champ and last Big Ten team standing, and in the other corner you have UCLA, the only team other than VCU in 2011 to reach the Elite Eight after starting in the First Four.
The Wolverines are coming off their most complete game of the tournament, though in fairness, Florida State was not the worthiest of foes. Michigan's future NBA players, Hunter Dickinson and Franz Wagner, shredded FSU inside en route to 14- and 13-point efforts, respectively. The 'Noles responded by bouncing threes off the fan cut-outs, missing all seven of their first-half tries. At times, they were so out of sync they seemed to struggle just to keep their composure.
The Wolverines needed a win like that to help remind them they can do it without standout forward Isaiah Livers, who will not return for the tournament. And this was it, dominating the paint and making themselves the only team to hold Florida State below 60 points this season.
UCLA's 88-78 win over Alabama was a back-and-forth snowball fight that needed overtime to resolve. A buzzer-beater from Alabama's Alex Reese sent the game to extra time, but Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Alabama's own atrocious free-throw shooting—11-of-25 (44 percent) from the line—sealed the Tide's fate.
In winning, the Bruins became the 19th-ever double-digit seed to reach the Elite Eight. The 18th was Oregon State the day before. Both, of course, are in the Pac-12.
UCLA isn't known for the tall trees in its frontcourt, and Dickinson, Wagner and the Wolverines will test it inside. UCLA may well be tempted to take the "house money" mentality and be glad to have achieved what it already has (which would be fine, by the way). But even if Michigan is favored, it's clear no one should be overlooking anything with the "Pac-12" label on it any time soon.
