NCAA Women's Championship Game 2019: Latest Odds and Predictions
A pair of thrilling Final Four showdowns paved the way for Sunday's NCAA women's championship game between top seeds Notre Dame and Baylor.
For the second straight year, Notre Dame vanquished UConn in a marquee semifinal clash. After again dethroning the Huskies, the Fighting Irish will look to become the next squad to repeat as national champions.
They must first get through Baylor, which overpowered Oregon in Friday's 72-67 triumph. The Lady Bears, who have lost just once all year, had steamrolled through the bracket before getting tested by the Ducks.
An epic meeting worthy of the grand stage offers no clear favorite. Per 5Dimes, Baylor receives a three-point edge over the defending champions, who haven't lost a game since early February.
Preview
Two Goliaths will square off at Amalie Arena on Sunday night.
Led by double-doubles from forwards Brianna Turner and Jessica Shepard, Notre Dame bullied UConn on the glass (54-37). That was a normal development for the Fighting Irish, who entered the tournament boasting the nation's fourth-best rebounding margin at plus-10.5.
Baylor, however, topped that leaderboard at plus-17.9.
The Lady Bears also led the way in blocks per game (7.3) and opposing field-goal percentage (31.4). Lauren Cox and Kalani Brown, the catalysts for their interior dominance, have imposed their will on both ends.
In addition to playing smothering defense, Baylor has averaged 89.4 points per game in the NCAA tournament despite abandoning the three-point shot. After not making any of its attempts from downtown against Oregon, the Big 12 powerhouse has converted just four three-pointers over the past four contests.
It didn't matter that Oregon—which led Division I in three-point percentage—made a dozen shots from behind the arc. Cox and Brown thrived down low, combining for 43 points on 18-of-26 shooting.
They will face a far steeper challenge against Turner, who swatted 100 shots during the regular season and iced Friday night's win with a crucial block during the closing minute.
"That was such a big, big play," Shepard said of Turner's late block, per The Athletic's Will Sammon. "We've seen her make big plays all the time, but that...that was huge for us."
The three-time ACC defensive player of the year will need to come up clutch again.
Alongside their battle of strengths in the paint, the title could boil down to a matchup between DiDi Richards and Arike Ogunbowale. Per ESPN.com's Charlie Creme, Oregon star Sabrina Ionescu went 5-of-14 when guarded by Richards, who has also bolstered her offense with 56 points in the last three games.
She will likely draw Ogunbowale, last year's Final Four hero who tallied 21 of her game-high 23 points in the final 20 minutes to upend the Huskies:
The guard's late prowess will be key to topping Baylor. Buoyed by Richards, however, the school is better positioned than any of Notre Dame's prior Final Four foes to at least contain the senior.
Prediction
Both squads bring a powerfully efficient offense and prolific defense to the table. Nobody else in the field could match either side's frontcourt, but something has to give when Baylor and Notre Dame collide.
Turner may present an antidote to Cox and Brown's elite production inside the paint. Richards, however, has emerged as a two-way dynamo who can prevent Ogunbowale from manufacturing more fourth-quarter magic.
Expect each top seed to slow the pace in an attempt to outmuscle its elite adversary to victory. That should yield a close, low-scoring encounter without many perimeter fireworks.
In a battle decided by defense, Baylor narrowly prevails.
Prediction: Baylor 70, Notre Dame 68
