NCAA Tournament

At long last, it is Selection Sunday. And after a wild couple of days, at least Sunday played according to form, much to the delight of sleep-deprived bracketologists and sweating bubble teams around the country.

Georgetown and Oregon State stole bids by winning their conference tournaments Saturday night, but Cincinnati couldn't push the number of bid thieves to three. The Bearcats were pummeled by Houston in the AAC championship.

As a result, our final bracket projection is the same as it was this morning.

Thanks to all of you for following along throughout the week. I hope you enjoyed the madness before the Madness.

FINAL PROJECTION: Sunday 5:15 p.m. ET

           

    

Play-In Games:

West No. 16 Seed: Texas Southern vs. Norfolk State
South No. 16 Seed: Appalachian State vs. Hartford
Midwest No. 11 Seed: Syracuse vs. Drake
West No. 11 Seed: Utah State vs. UCLA

              

Sunday Morning Scrub

Among the top three seed lines, the only tough call is the final No. 2 seed.

It appears to be a toss-up between Texas, Oklahoma State and Houston. After the Longhorns won the Big 12 championship, they look like the best candidate for it. Oklahoma State has more Quadrant 1 wins, and Houston has the best metrics by far, but that Big 12 conference title is quite the bonus. It took a lot of thought, but Texas moves up to a No. 2, regardless of whether Houston wins the AAC title today.

The final No. 5 seed is even harder than the final No. 2 seed.

If Creighton had won last night, the Bluejays would feel like a lock for no worse than a No. 5. Not only did they lose to Georgetown, but they got pummeled. Colorado also would have had a great case if it had won the Pac-12 title, but it also fell short to a bid thief. Both of those teams have great metrics but now four rather questionable losses each.

Out of seemingly nowhere, LSU has emerged as the best candidate for that spot. After yesterday's win over Arkansas, the Tigers are 5-7 vs. Quadrant 1 with nothing worse than a road loss to NET No. 98 Georgia on their list of mistakes. They're also top-30 in both NET and KenPom. I like their chances of landing on the No. 5 line, regardless of what happens in today's game against Alabama.

LSU's vault from our top No. 7 to our bottom No. 5 bumps Oklahoma from a No. 6 to a No. 7.

The Sooners have been a tough nut to crack. They were No. 12 overall in the top-16 reveal, and they won at West Virginia later that day. Since then, though, they're 2-5 overall with a bad loss to Kansas State and merely two wins over Iowa State. They're also barely top-40 in NET or KenPom. The only real argument for them to be higher than a No. 7 is the committee was enamored with them a month ago. But loves fades, and so did Oklahoma.

Among the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, we have a swap in the ACC with Clemson sliding down as Georgia Tech moves up after its ACC championship win over Florida State. I try not to drastically move teams during conference championship week, but those were two exceptions to the rule.

Georgia Tech was on the bubble to enter the week, but beating Florida State to claim a major-conference title is huge. The Yellow Jackets should at least get the better seed in the 50/50 game to face a No. 1 seed.

And Clemson entered the week as my bottom No. 5 seed before losing to sub-.500 Miami. The problem for Clemson is the metrics were already bad because of its four blowout losses in January, but the lack of any losses outside of Quadrant 1 kept the Tigers looking good anyway. But that loss to Miami is like a moldy apple that hit their resume four days ago and now has gotten extra stinky.

The St. Bonaventure vs. VCU winner will be a No. 9 seed. The loser will be a No. 10 seed. Almost feels like the winner is getting penalized by needing to beat a No. 1 seed to reach the Sweet 16, but such is life.

I'm still constantly grappling with the Big Ten "bubble" teams, Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State. They're each safely in the field, but if they aren't all on the same seed line, it's tough to argue who should be in front or behind. They all have double-digit losses and a nice supply of quality wins. With the fewest losses and the most Quadrant 1 and 2 victories, Rutgers will likely be the highest seeded of the trio. And with a NET ranking all the way down at 70, Michigan State still looks to be the odd man out, landing on the No. 11 seed line.

Of course, No. 11 doesn't feel as safe as it did 24 hours ago, now that Georgetown and Oregon State have jumped into the field as No. 12 seeds, bumping both of the play-in games up to a No. 11. But I'm still confident the Spartans are in with a bit of room to spare.

And that brings us to the heart of the scrub: 10 teams for the final five spots. (Or four spots, if Cincinnati beats Houston.) In alphabetical order, those teams are Boise State, Colorado State, Drake, Louisville, Ole Miss, Saint Louis, Syracuse, UCLA, Utah State and Wichita State.

Of the 10, Louisville appears to be the safest. Duke isn't going to get in, but the Blue Devils were certainly a tournament-caliber team late in the year. Thus, Louisville's two wins over the Blue Devils and home wins over Virginia Tech and now ACC champion Georgia Tech should offset the lone bad loss to Miami.

The rest of the nine can be seen below, but the big overnight change was Syracuse replacing Colorado State as the last team in.

Believe me, I would much rather see a three-bid Mountain West than another blew-a-ton-of-chances major-conference team sneak in, but the more I compare Syracuse and Colorado State head-to-head, the less I like the Rams. The Orange have four wins over definite tournament teams, while CSU only has one. The Rams also have that unsightly 20-point loss to Saint Mary's.

We'll be taking a closer look at the Nos. 13-16 seeds shortly and will make sure there aren't any "illegal" first-round pairings or placements.

     

The Bubble

Fourth-to-Last In: UCLA Bruins (17-9, NET: 47, KenPom: 44)

The big question for UCLA is: Who did it actually beat? The best win of the season was a home game against a Colorado team that was without its starting center. The Bruins did sweep Arizona, but how much does beating ineligible-for-the-postseason teams actually matter? Outside of that, their best win was at Utah.

When they lost their Pac-12 tournament opener to Oregon State, it looked like an awful Quadrant 3 loss. But the Beavers proceeded to knock off Oregon and Colorado and turned that into not such a bad result for UCLA. However, it's kind of a backhanded compliment to UCLA's resume, because by winning the Pac-12 tournament, Oregon State may have forced the Bruins into a play-in game.

       

Third-to-Last In: Utah State Aggies (20-8, NET: 41, KenPom: 39)

Utah State was somewhat up a creek without a paddle two weeks ago after getting swept by Boise State. But while others on the bubble (and in the MWC) have been dropping games left and right, the Aggies swept Nevada and won one game each against Wyoming and Fresno State. Nothing fantastic in that bunch, but not losing is always a good thing.

They continued that not-losing trend by making quick work of UNLV in the MWC quarterfinals. That 74-53 victory over the Rebels looks good on its own, but it really looks good when compared to Boise State's loss earlier in the day.

The subsequent 12-point win over Colorado State was simply massive. There had been a lot of complaints brewing about Utah State's inability to win quality games away from home, but this should put an end to that narrative. If Neemias Queta and the Aggies don't get in now, the selection committee will be robbing us all of a good time.

        

Second-to-Last Team In: Drake Bulldogs (25-4, NET: 44, KenPom: 53)

Without fail, there's always a bubble team that loses in its conference tournament a week before Selection Sunday, left to sweat buckets day after day. As things currently stand, Drake would probably get in. The Bulldogs had two iffy losses at Bradley and Valparaiso, but they went 5-0 vs. Quadrant 2, won one game against Loyola-Chicago and battled well in the MVC championship loss to the Ramblers. But we'll have to wait and see what the bubble teams in the ACC, Big East, Mountain West, AAC and SEC tournaments can do later this week.

(Bonus note: If Drake slips onto the wrong side of the bubble, it would almost certainly have the option of becoming one of the four "at-large replacement teams" placed on standby in the event that an at-large team is unable to play its first tournament game. Not only will Drake be sweating until Selection Sunday, but it might be waiting until the following Saturday to find out if it gets to play in the tournament.)

         

Last Team In: Syracuse Orange (16-9, NET: 39, KenPom: 41)

It wouldn't be March without Syracuse smack dab on the bubble. The Orange have home wins over Clemson, North Carolina and Virginia Tech, as well as a now three-game season sweep of NC State after that 21-point win in the second round of the ACC tournament. But a lack of statement wins and a season sweep at the hands of Pittsburgh has left them in a perilous spot.

The three-point, buzzer-beating loss to Virginia in the ACC quarterfinals was a heartbreaker for the Orange, but it wasn't a bubble popper. Stomping NC State and giving Virginia a run for its money was a nice showing.

Saturday was brutal for the Orange, though. Bid thieves Georgetown and Oregon State knocked Syracuse right to the cut line.

        

First Team Out: Colorado State Rams (18-6, NET: 48, KenPom: 59)

The season-ending loss at Nevada brought the Rams back to the pack a bit, but it wasn't a terrible misstep. Three-point Quadrant 2 losses aren't great, of course, but it only cost them a couple spots on the overall seed list. That said, there's not a whole lot of meat on this resume. CSU split each of its season series with Boise State, San Diego State and Utah State; it lost at Saint Mary's and Nevada; and those were the only eight games played against the top two quadrants prior to the MWC tournament.

At least the Rams beat Fresno State in the MWC quarters, but another loss to Colorado State may have been the final straw. Well, Oregon State beating Colorado was Colorado State's final straw. The Rams likely would be in were it not for bid thieves.

       

Second Team Out: Wichita State Shockers (16-5, NET: 64, KenPom: 69)

Just a brutal loss to Cincinnati for Wichita State in the AAC semifinals.

Up until that point, the Shockers' worst loss was either the home game against Missouri or the road game against Memphis. Either way, not an egregious misstep. But in spite of that lack of bad losses, Wichita State has been on the bubble all week because they have a great home win over Houston, a solid road win over Ole Miss and no other victories against the NET Top 100. Just not a whole lot on the resume.

That Quadrant 3 loss bumped Wichita State down to our Last Team In. Georgetown's subsequent bubble-shrinking Big East championship then knocked the Shockers out of the field. We'll take a much closer look at Wichita State's resume in the morning, though.

       

Third Team Out: Ole Miss Rebels (16-11, NET: 52, KenPom: 47)

Ole Miss has perhaps the most "normal year" bubble resume of the bunch, boasting a healthy dose of both nice wins and questionable losses. The Rebels swept Missouri and won a home game against Tennessee. They were also swept by Georgia, lost at Vanderbilt, lost a home game to Mississippi State and went 0-2 in nonconference games against teams outside of Quadrant 4 (Dayton and Wichita State).

Ole Miss cruised to a second-round victory over South Carolina to set up a big opportunity against LSU on Friday, but the Rebels fell three points shy of knocking off the Tigers.

They still have a shot, though. Five losses to non-tournament teams isn't great, but they didn't suffer any egregious defeats. And it's not like anyone else on the bubble did much to help its case this week. If Georgetown and Oregon State both lose in their conference championships and Ole Miss shows up in a play-in game, I can't say I would be stunned.

         

Fourth Team Out: Saint Louis Billikens (14-6, NET: 45, KenPom: 48)

The Billikens have a respectable resume with home wins over LSU and St. Bonaventure and just the one awful loss (at La Salle). But if the selection committee is going to cut anyone some slack for poor play after a COVID-19 pause, Saint Louis should be near the top of that list. The Billikens went more than a month between games (Dec. 23 to Jan. 26) before suffering back-to-back losses, one of which was that La Salle game.

        

Fifth Team Out: Boise State Broncos (18-8, NET: 51, KenPom: 61)

Nothing like ending the regular season on a three-game losing streak, punctuated by a Quadrant 4 loss, am I right? Boise State looked like a near-lock to make the tournament after finishing off its mid-February sweep of Utah State, but back-to-back close losses to San Diego State followed by a terrible home loss to Fresno State leaves the Broncos with work to do.

Boise State probably would've gotten in with a win over Nevada in the MWC's No. 4 vs. No. 5 game. Instead, they lost to the Wolf Pack for the third time this season. Now, they sweat, hoping that the win at BYU from more than three months ago will be enough.

       

Others Still Under Some Consideration (in no particular order): Memphis, Richmond, Belmont, Seton Hall, Xavier

                 

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.

If it's true that absence makes the heart grow fonder, men's college basketball fans will be bursting at the seams with excitement for the 2021 NCAA tournament.

Last season, the tournament had to be canceled, so there's a lot of built-up energy for everyone that needs to be released and there's no better way to do that than filling out brackets and cheering for the home team.

Liberty (Atlantic Sun), Winthrop (Big South), Loyola of Chicago (Missouri Valley) and Morehead State (Ohio Valley) have already clinched their berths in the tourney after winning their respective conference tournaments, and more automatic qualifiers will follow suit this week.

Then there's Selection Sunday, when all 68 teams that have officially punched their ticket to March Madness will be announced.

Here's a quick look the important dates and data points for this year's Big Dance.

    

2021 NCAA Tournament Schedule

Selection Sunday: March 14

First Four: March 18

First round: March 19-20

Second round: March 21-22

Sweet 16: March 27-28

Elite Eight: March 29-30

Final Four: April 3

National Championship: April 5

    

March Madness TV Schedule

First Four: TBS, truTV

First and second rounds: CBS, TBS, TNT, truTV

Sweet 16 and Elite Eight: CBS, TBS

Final Four and national championship: CBS

     

Round-by-Round Breakdown

First 4

For safety reasons, the NCAA rolled out a litany of changes to the usual format for the 2021 men's basketball championship.

The biggest change is that all 67 games will be played in Indiana.

That means that instead of teams facing off in various sports arenas all over the continental United States, they'll be confined to the Indianapolis area.

All games will be played on either one of two courts at Lucas Oil Stadium or Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indiana Farmers Coliseum, Mackey Arena (West Lafayette) or Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall (Bloomington).

A limited number of fans will be allowed to attend the games, up to 25 percent, so the atmosphere won't be as electric as in years past, but fans should still descend into March Madness while cheering on their teams and watching Cinderella teams bust brackets.

Fortunately, the First Four format hasn't changed. The No. 65 and No. 66 overall teams will play each other, as well as the No. 67 and No. 68 overall teams. The other two games will feature the last four at-large teams.

The committee's overall goal was to try and keep the S-curve bracketing option for placing teams.

"In a normal year, bracketing is done with consideration given to keeping as many teams as close to their campus as possible, reducing team travel and providing as many fans as possible an opportunity to watch their favorite teams participate in The Big Dance," Dan Gavitt, the NCAA's senior vice president of basketball said in a statement. "But this year only, with the entire tournament being played in Indiana, the committee believes this different approach is optimal."

The First Four can be a breeding ground for Cinderella. Back in 2011, Virginia Commonwealth University took an at-large bid all the way to the Final Four, when they were felled by Butler.

That run by VCU is still considered one of the best Cinderella runs in NCAA tournament history.

    

1st and 2nd Rounds

After the field is down to 64 teams, the first round will take place on March 21 and 22, with 16 games scheduled for each day. There will then be eight second-round games on both March 23 and 24.

Once the field has been whittled down to 64 teams, the first round will kick off March 19 and close out on March 20. There will be 16 games played each day.

The committee will try to avoid setting up rematches of nonconference regular-season games in the first round.

However, teams from the same conference can play each other in the second round if they didn't face each other more than once in the regular season or conference tournament.

The second round will feature eight games on March 21 and March 22.

    

Sweet 16 and Elite 8

With the stakes higher in the regional semifinals, teams from the same conference can play each other.

For the Sweet 16, four games will be played on March 27 and March 28.

The winners will advance to the Elite Eight to play another two games on March 29 and March 30.

     

Final 4 and National Championship

The Final Four will take place at Lucas Oil Stadium, the home of the Indianapolis Colts, on April 3, followed by the national championship on April 5.

College basketball fans should be familiar with the venue, as it has previously hosted the Final Four in 2010 and 2015.

"In order to go from a football field to the basketball court, it takes a lot of planning, and normally this would go on over the course of years," Lucas Oil Stadium director Eric Neuburger told Lauren Kostiuk of WTHR 13. "This time we are kind of going back to our roots when we would host the Final Four at the Hoosier Dome or RCA Dome, and it would be on one half of the football field. So that's what we are trying to recreate here."

     

March Madness Prediction

The biggest part of the excitement of the NCAA tournament is its unpredictability.

Teams no one has ever heard of on the national stage beat all odds and topple storied programs to bust brackets every year.

But there are always those teams that are just too good to fail.

Even though no one can fill out their brackets yet, teams like Michigan, Gonzaga and Villanova look like they could be early favorites to be the last squad standing.

Still, it would be great if Cinderella could manage to stick around until the last game is played.

A year after Michigan's basketball team was pulled off the court ahead of their scheduled game against Rutgers after the Big Ten Tournament was canceled in its second day of games due to COVID-19, the men's college basketball postseason is once again poised to tip off.

This time, it would be nice to get through even the entire Big Ten Tournament; time and COVID-19 protocols will tell if we're able to make it through all of March Madness to crown a champion for 2021. 

COVID-19, of course, still continues to impact this year's tournament. For one thing, it was moved from the United Center in Chicago to Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis in the interest of more centralized testing and efficient protocols, the Big Ten announced in February. The tournament is set to return to Chicago in 2023. 

Because the 2020 tournament was canceled, 2019 champion Michigan State are the reigning champs heading into this year's big dance. This year, Michigan went 19-3 overall (14-3 in the Big Ten) to secure the title for the 15th time and its first regular-season championship since the 2013-14 season.

Big Ten Tournament 2021 Schedule

Wednesday, March 10

First Round

6:30 p.m. ET: No. 12 Northwestern vs. No. 13 Minnesota (Big Ten Network)

25 minutes after Game 1: No. 11 Penn State vs. No. 14 Nebraska (Big Ten Network)

     

Thursday, March 11

Second Round

11:30 a.m. ET: No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 Michigan State (Big Ten Network)

25 minutes after Game 1: No. 5 Ohio State vs. winner of Minnesota/Northwestern (Big Ten Network)

6:30 p.m. ET: No. 7 Rutgers vs. No. 10 Indiana (Big Ten Network)

25 minutes after Game 3: No. 6 Wisconsin vs. winner of Penn State/Nebraska (Big Ten Network)

        

Friday, March 12

Quarterfinals

11:30 a.m. ET: No. 1 Michigan vs. winner of Maryland/Michigan State (Big Ten Network)

25 minutes after Game 1: No. 4 Purdue vs. Ohio State/Northwestern/Minnesota (Big Ten Network)

6:30 p.m. ET: No. 2 Illinois vs. winner of Rutgers/Indiana (Big Ten Network)

25 minutes after Game 3: No. 3 Iowa vs. Wisconsin/Penn State/Nebraska (Big Ten Network)

       

Saturday, March 13

Semifinals

1 p.m. ET: Friday afternoon winners (CBS)

25 minutes after Game 1: Friday evening winners (CBS)

        

Sunday, March 14

Championship

3:30 p.m. ET: Saturday winners (CBS)

       

Big Ten Tournament Seeding

1. Michigan

2. Illinois

3. Iowa

4. Purdue

5. Ohio State

6. Wisconsin

7. Rutgers

8. Maryland

9. Michigan State

10. Indiana

11. Penn State

12. Northwestern

13. Minnesota

14. Nebraska

      

Given its double-bye by virtue of its No. 1 seed, Michigan kicks off tournament play at 11:30 a.m. ET on Friday, March 12, against the winner of the matchup between No. 8 Maryland and No. 9 Michigan State.

If Michigan State defeats Maryland, it will set up a third meeting between Michigan and Michigan State in a nine-day period. 

Michigan had a higher winning percentage in Big Ten games than Illinois (20-6, 16-4), but it would be foolish to sleep on the Illini. Illinois' No. 2 seed in the tournament is its highest since 2009, when it also earned the second seed. Illinois set a new mark this season with 16 conference wins, the most in program history. 

Illinois will face the winner of No. 7 Rutgers vs. No. 10 Indiana on Friday. 

This year marks the highest seed No. 3 Iowa (20-7, 14-6) has earned in the Big Ten Tournament since clinching the No. 2 seed in 2006. That was the year the Hawkeyes defeated Ohio State 67-60 to win their second-ever Big Ten Tournament championship. 

No. 4 Purdue earns a top-four seed for the sixth time in the last seven years. The Boilermakers, who begin play on Friday, are enjoying a Big Ten-best five-game win streak heading into the postseason.

The Big Ten championship final will be Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET, and the NCAA tournament selection show will air afterwards.