NCAA Tournament

The regular-season meeting between the USC Trojans and Oregon Ducks may not give us a good example of how Sunday's Sweet 16 showdown will play out.

Oregon got off to one of its worst starts of the season and could not recover against the Evan Mobley-led Trojans. As we saw in the second round, the Ducks are more than capable of starting hot from the field and remaining confident for 40 minutes.

Sunday's nightcap will guarantee the Pac-12 has two teams in the Elite Eight after the Oregon State Beavers advanced Saturday.

The SEC is the only other conference that can put multiple programs into Monday's and Tuesday's games. The Alabama Crimson Tide appear to have a pretty good shot to join the Arkansas Razorbacks. Nate Oats' team received praise all season for its offensive approach, but defensive play versus the UCLA Bruins could be what pushes the Tide through to the next round.

                  

Sunday Sweet 16 Schedule     

No. 1 Gonzaga (-13) vs. No. 5 Creighton (O/U: 158) (2:10 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 1 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Florida State (O/U: 143.5) (5 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 2 Alabama (-6.5) vs. No. 11 UCLA (O/U: 145.5) (7:15 p.m. ET, TBS)

No. 6 USC (-2) vs. No. 7 Oregon (O/U: 138) (9:45 p.m. ET, TBS)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Predictions against the spread in bold. 

                

Betting Advice

Bank on the Ducks to Have Strong Shooting Performance

Oregon's worst offensive performance of the season occurred on February 22 at the Galen Center.

USC rushed out to a 19-3 advantage, and not even a seven-point edge in second-half scoring could bring the Ducks within striking distance.

Oregon finished with a decent shooting performance against USC, as it went 41.2 percent from three-point range and 40.4 percent from the field. Since the Ducks offense was the main reason why those struggles happened, they should feel confident going that they can shoot better and compete with the Trojans on Sunday.

In Chris Duarte, LJ Figueroa and Will Richardson, the Ducks have a guard combination that can keep pace with whatever is thrown at them by Tahj Eaddy and Drew Peterson.

Dana Altman's team also has a physical answer to Mobley, which is something the Kansas Jayhawks and Drake Bulldogs lacked in the first two rounds. Eugene Omoruyi and Eric Williams Jr. should make things difficult for the likely top-five NBA draft pick, which could take Mobley out of a scoring rhythm.

Mobley recorded a double-double in his first two NCAA men's basketball tournament games, and he is one rebound shy in two Pac-12 tournament contests from having five straight 10-point, 10-rebound performances.

If the Ducks contain Mobley and keep the game close, they should have the advantage in the final few minutes through Altman. The 62-year-old guided Oregon to the Sweet 16 in his past four NCAA tournament appearances. Two of those occasions resulted in Elite Eight berths, with the Ducks making the Final Four in 2017.

Altman's game plan late in the contest may give Oregon the edge it needs to avenge one of its six regular-season losses.

                   

Rely on Alabama's Defense for a Cover

Alabama is a dangerous national championship contender because it can beat teams in two ways.

The Crimson Tide can outshoot opponents at a high rate, like it did against the Maryland Terrapins, or it can win through its defense on a tough offensive night, as it did in its first-round victory over the Iona Gaels.

The key to both styles of play is Herbert Jones, who had 20 points against Iona and is considered one of the best defenders in the nation. Jones should have some familiarity with the play of Johnny Juzang, who transferred to UCLA from Kentucky.

The Alabama players may know Juzang's tendencies more from the information gathered from throughout the SEC. The guard did not play Alabama in his lone season with the Wildcats.

Alabama's defenders should be a step up from what UCLA faced in its first three games. The Michigan State Spartans and BYU Cougars were not known for their defensive capabilities, and the Abilene Christian Wildcats did not pack enough of an offensive punch to match UCLA's defensive strengths.

If Alabama contains Juzang, it could put away the Bruins before the final four minutes through its three-point shooting. In the second round, the Tide knocked down 16 three-point shots. They were also perfect from the free-throw line, which is significant because if they are not taking threes, they are driving to the hoop.

Shooting well again should see Alabama pull away by double digits and land a meeting with either the Michigan Wolverines or Florida State Seminoles.

              

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

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It's quite rare for a major-conference team to serve as a legitimate Cinderella story of the men's NCAA tournament, but that glass slipper fits beautifully on the Elite Eight-bound and No. 12 seeded Oregon State Beavers.

Prior to last Friday, Oregon State's most recent win in the NCAA tournament came in 1982. But the tournament accomplishments of the "Orange Express" from 1980-82 were later vacated due to impermissible benefits, meaning the program's most recent official tournament victory came in 1975.

That means—as far as the NCAA record books are concerned—both DePaul and Rutgers had been to a Final Four more recently than Oregon State won a tournament game.

Not only is this a Cinderella story by ancient history standards, but even the much more recent history suggests there was no way to see this coming.

Just five weeks ago, the idea of Oregon State making it into the NCAA tournament was borderline incomprehensible.

The Beavers were 11-11 overall with woeful home losses to Wyoming and Portland on their resume. (Portland did not win another road game this season, nor did it win another game against a KenPom Top 200 opponent.)

The only time we even tangentially mentioned Oregon State in bracketology conversations was if we were either pointing out USC's worst loss of the season or mentioning how bad short-handed Oregon looked against the Beavers in its first game back from a COVID-19 pause.

In the quarterfinals of the Pac-12 tournament, Oregon State trailed UCLA 32-16 in the first half, was down by four with less than two minutes to go and was only able to get that game into overtime when Jules Bernard missed what likely would have been a game-winning free throw for the Bruins.

In the Pac-12 championship against Colorado, one of the best free-throw shooting teams in NCAA history went just 12-of-20 from the charity stripe and still had a chance to win it at the buzzer, but McKinley Wright IV's half-court heave was nowhere close to finding its mark.

Even after winning the Pac-12 tournament, Oregon State ended the year ranked 91st in the NCAA Evaluation Tool rankings and 85th on KenPom.

There has been a lot of chatter in the past week about certain teams (most notably Loyola-Chicago) being under-seeded by the selection committee, but Oregon State's No. 12 seed was much deserved. There's no way the Beavers would have gotten in without that automatic bid.

After beating those long odds just to get into this dance, they keep refusing to go home.

Their tourney journey began with a 14-point win over Tennessee in which their lethal Pac-12 tournament three-point stroke (43.9 percent) found its way to Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Jarod Lucas and Zach Reichle led the Beavers through a 10-of-21 night from distance.

After knocking out a Volunteers squad with two potential lottery picks (Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer), Oregon State proceeded to get a super physical win over Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State. That OSU-OSU showdown featured 73 combined free-throw attempts, and the Beavers made 91.4 percent of their freebies.

Those free throws were once again critical in the process of beating Cameron Krutwig, Sister Jean Dolores-Schmidt and the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers in the Sweet 16. That game was a rock fight of the highest order, but the Beavers went 18-of-20 from the charity stripe—most of those in the final three minutes to keep the Ramblers from having any chance of mounting a comeback.

After shooting 15-of-16 from the free-throw line against Oklahoma State, Ethan Thompson sank all eight of his tries against Loyola-Chicago. Oregon State's senior leader has averaged 20.3 points, 7.0 rebounds and 3.3 assists through the first three rounds.

But the biggest reason for Oregon State's success has been its defense, which is pure madness if you watched this team try to play defense during the regular season.

In 17 of 29 games played prior to the tournament, Oregon State allowed at least 1.0 points per possession (PPP). In a mid-January loss to Arizona, that rate was 1.38 PPP. In the home loss to Oregon in OSU's regular-season finale, the Ducks scored 1.33 PPP.

The Beavers had, arguably, the ninth-best defense in the Pac-12.

In each of their three NCAA tournament games, though, the Beavers defense has clocked in below 1.0 PPP allowed. All told, it's 184 points on 205 possessions (0.89 PPP), and it's mostly a product of intentionally mucking things up in the paint against mediocre three-point shooting teams.

With big man John Fulkerson unavailable for Tennessee because of a facial fracture suffered in the SEC tournament, Oregon State basically begged Tennessee to settle for long jump shots, and the inconsistent Volunteers obliged that request. Same goes for the game against Oklahoma State, and those first two opponents shot a combined 13-of-53 (24.5 percent) from three-point range.

Against Loyola-Chicago, Wayne Tinkle unleashed a zone defense designed to A) keep Krutwig in check, B) eliminate the backdoor cuts that the Ramblers used to destroy Illinois and C) force them to settle for threes instead of their preferred two-point buckets. It worked to perfection. The Ramblers shot just 1-of-13 from distance in the first 30 minutes, and it was too little too late when those shots finally started falling.

Loyola-Chicago had not faced much zone defense during the regular season, and it took the Ramblers a long time to figure out how to navigate it. They ended up scoring 58, but they were held to 24 for the first 28 minutes.

Because of that savvy decision by Tinkle, the Beavers are improbably on their way to the Elite Eight. They join 2002 Missouri as only the second team in NCAA tournament history to reach a regional final as a No. 12 seed or worse.

Why stop there?

Oregon State could certainly win Monday's game against Houston. Like both of the Midwest Region's Sweet 16 matchups, it's probably going to be a "race" to 60 points. If the Beavers can keep the Cougars from dominating on the offensive glass, they could keep this wild ride going for one more weekend.

Because of Oregon State's conference affiliation, most will refuse to view this run as unlikely as the Final Four runs of No. 11 seeds George Mason (2006), VCU (2011) and Loyola-Chicago (2018). Nevertheless, the Beavers are one win away from the unlikeliest Final Four appearance of all-time.

If they get it done, I'm confident I speak for everyone in hoping that the 6'10" Tinkle dons a pair of very large glass slippers to coach that national semifinal game against the winner of Arkansas vs. Baylor.

                   

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and college football for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter, @kerrancejames.

Before the start of the NCAA men's basketball tournament, the Villanova Wildcats weren't considered a title contender because of injuries.

But during the first two rounds, Jay Wright's team proved it could have championship potential by handling the Winthrop Eagles and North Texas Mean Green. Villanova faces a massive step up in competition Saturday against the Baylor Bears, but it has the talent to give the No. 1 seed a test.

Prior to the Baylor-Villanova clash, the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers will try to keep their stellar defensive record in place against the Oregon State Beavers.

Both Loyola and Baylor have had the spreads move in their favor since the matchups were determined. Loyola-Chicago moved up a half-point to a seven-point favorite, while Baylor's line increased a full point to 7.5.

                   

Sweet 16 Schedule and Odds

Saturday, March 27

No. 8 Loyola-Chicago (-7) vs. No. 12 Oregon State (Over/Under: 124.5) (2:40 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 1 Baylor (-7.5) vs. No. 5 Villanova (O/U: 142) (5:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 3 Arkansas (-11.5) vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts (O/U: 158.5) (7:25 p.m. ET, TBS)

No. 2 Houston (-6.5) vs. No. 11 Syracuse (O/U: 141) (9:55 p.m. ET, TBS)

              

Sunday, March 28

No. 1 Gonzaga (-13) vs. No. 5 Creighton (O/U: 158) (2:10 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 1 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Florida State (O/U: 143.5) (5 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 2 Alabama (-6.5) vs. No. 11 UCLA (O/U: 145.5) (7:15 p.m. ET, TBS)

No. 6 USC (-2) vs. No. 7 Oregon (O/U: 138) (9:45 p.m. ET, TBS)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Predictions against the spread in bold. 

             

Betting Advice

Rely on Villanova to Keep It Close with Baylor

The last two times Villanova qualified for the Sweet 16, it won the national championship.

The Wildcats have a tough path just to get to the Final Four, with Baylor and potentially the Arkansas Razorbacks in their way.

But even if Villanova does not win Saturday, it should keep the contest within eight points to cover the spread. Against Winthrop and North Texas, Villanova showed it could have an efficient offense without the injured Collin Gillespie.

In the second round, Villanova had four of its five starters reach double figures, and its best player, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, chipped in 18 points, six rebounds and six assists. Robinson-Earl could be the key to breaking down Baylor's defense that conceded 118 points versus the Hartford Hawks and Wisconsin Badgers.

Just like Villanova, Baylor is facing a step up in competition from its first two games, and it could be susceptible to conceding a high total. In their last five games before the men's NCAA tournament, the Bears conceded at least 70 points to four opponents. All of those concessions were against Top 25 squads.

In total, Baylor played in four games against ranked sides in Big 12 play that it won by eight points or fewer.

Although this is a different Wildcats team than the ones that won it all in 2016 and 2018, it is worth noting Villanova scored more than 70 points in seven of its eight games from the Sweet 16 and beyond in those title runs.

If Villanova scores at the same 70-80 point clip that it did in the first two rounds, it could at least put pressure on Baylor and cover.

                

Put Trust in Loyola-Chicago's Defense

The one sure thing about the eight Sweet 16 matchups is the quality of Loyola-Chicago's defense.

Porter Moser's side shut down one of the most explosive offenses in the country in the second round, holding the Illinois Fighting Illini to 58 points.

During their eight-game winning streak, the Ramblers have held seven foes to a maximum of 60 points, which could be bad news for the red-hot Oregon State Beavers.

Oregon State put up at least 70 points during its five-game winning run, but it has not faced the same quality of defense that Loyola-Chicago possesses.

Loyola has the potential to shut down Oregon State's three-point shooting that pushed it through to the Sweet 16. The Ramblers limited Illinois and the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets to 7-of-24 from three-point range, and if they stifle Oregon State's guards, they may open up a wide margin.

Offensively, Loyola has the advantage down low through Cameron Krutwig, who is building a strong case to be named the tournament's Most Outstanding Player. Krutwig has at least 10 points, eight rebounds and five assists in three of his past four games. If Loyola successfully runs its offense through the big man again, the separation could be created early.

If Loyola advances, it would face an intriguing defensive battle no matter which team advances out of the other Midwest Region game between the Syracuse Orange and Houston Cougars.

                 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

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The Alabama Crimson Tide have amazed us with their offensive play all season, but they have the defensive chops to shut down any opponent in their path to the national championship. 

Nate Oats' team will have to flex that strength even more in the second weekend of the NCAA men's basketball tournament as the opposition gets tougher. 

Alabama's Sweet 16 matchup with the UCLA Bruins should be decided by how well the Tide's top defenders shut down the red-hot scorers for the Pac-12 side. 

UCLA is one of four Pac-12 squads still alive, but that number could be trimmed to just one for the Elite Eight. 

The Oregon State Beavers will face a similar conundrum in their Sweet 16 showdown with the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers, as their in-form offense has to find a way past a fantastic defense. 

              

Sweet 16 Schedule and Odds

Saturday, March 27

No. 8 Loyola-Chicago (-6.5) vs. No. 12 Oregon State (Over/Under: 125.5) (2:40 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 1 Baylor (-7.5) vs. No. 5 Villanova (O/U: 141) (5:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 3 Arkansas (-11.5) vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts (O/U: 159) (7:25 p.m. ET, TBS)

No. 2 Houston (-6) vs. No. 11 Syracuse (O/U: 139.5) (9:55 p.m. ET, TBS)

        

Sunday, March 28

No. 1 Gonzaga (-13.5) vs. No. 5 Creighton (O/U: 158) (2:10 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 1 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 4 Florida State (O/U: 143.5) (5 p.m. ET, CBS)

No. 2 Alabama (-6.5) vs. No. 11 UCLA (O/U: 146) (7:15 p.m. ET, TBS)

No. 6 USC (-2) vs. No. 7 Oregon (O/U: 139) (9:45 p.m. ET, TBS)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

     

Score Predictions

Alabama 74, UCLA 63

Alabama's concession of 132 points so far in the NCAA tournament is not up to its high defensive standard. It held four of its last six SEC opponents under 70 points and extended that trend into the first round against the Iona Gaels. 

The Crimson Tide were never under a massive threat from the Maryland Terrapins, but giving up 77 points in a NCAA tournament game is not ideal. 

Maryland shot 53.3 percent from the field and knocked down 10 three-pointers to try to stay close with Alabama, but it hit 16 of its 33 three-point shots and was perfect from the free-throw line. 

If the Tide shoot like they did in the second round, few teams will be able to stop them. But they need to game-plan for a more average performance so its defense can be prepared for anything. 

The good news for Alabama is it already has a first-hand scouting report on UCLA's Johnny Juzang, who is a transfer from Kentucky. Any edge helps this time of year, and that could help Herbert Jones slow down the UCLA guard in a one-on-one matchup.

The 22-year-old should be one of the top contenders for Defensive Player of the Year, and he could strengthen that case by limiting Juzang, who had 44 points in the last two rounds. 

UCLA easily surged past a tough defensive team in the Abilene Christian Wildcats, but the Southland Conference champion is nowhere close to Alabama from an offensive standpoint. In fact, the Tide may be the toughest defensive team the Bruins face all season.

If Jones causes trouble for Juzang and UCLA's other guards are affected by the lack of points or assists from him, Alabama could come away with some early stops and break the game open by halftime, just as it did against Maryland.

      

Loyola-Chicago 58, Oregon State 52

We are going to ease back into the madness on Saturday thanks to the grind-it-out style of Loyola-Chicago. 

The Ramblers do not play in many high-scoring games, and if they and Oregon State each hit 60 points in the Sweet 16 opener, we should be amazed. 

Porter Moser's side gave up 118 points in the first two rounds against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and Illinois Fighting Illini. And the same ideas that were used to shut down those two teams will be utilized to stifle the red-hot Beavers guards. 

While Cameron Krutwig is the star down low, Loyola's guards are the engine of the team since they defend so well. They conceded over 60 points in two straight games just once this season, in nonconference play against the Wisconsin Badgers and Richmond Spiders on December 15 and 18, respectively.

Since then, four teams have reached the 60-point mark against the tough perimeter defense of Lucas Williamson and others. 

Just like UCLA with Alabama, Oregon State is likely facing its toughest defensive challenge of the season, and it is one that may dramatically slow down its scoring pace. 

Wayne Tinkle's Beavers scored at least 70 points in every victory of their five-game winning streak, but they also allowed three opponents to score more than 65. 

Although they beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys by 10 in the second round, the Beavers showed some defensive inefficiencies down the stretch as Cade Cunningham worked the deficit down to three points. 

If Oregon State is unable to score on Loyola, it may not have the wherewithal to deal with Krutwig in the paint and win a game in the 60s. 

A low-scoring game will suit Loyola and frustrate Oregon State's shooters early. The Ramblers could slow the pace down and grind out a win that does not require them to reach 60 points.

       

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.

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The players won't be the only ones jumping if Loyola-Chicago advances to the Final Four in the 2021 NCAA men's tournament.

"I'll be jumping around, literally, not figuratively, I'll be jumping around as much as they are," Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt said, per Adam Rittenberg of ESPN. "It will just be a great thrill if they get to the Final Four again, or even go up a couple steps more. I will hardly believe that it happened. Last time, I thought to myself, 'I will never see anything like this again.'"

The 101-year-old team chaplain was in attendance for the Ramblers' first-round victory over Georgia Tech and second-round stunner over top-seeded Illinois.

She certainly knows what championship basketball looks like considering she saw the Ramblers take home the 1963 national championship.

"I waited since 1963, because I saw that game too," she said. "If we got this, it would be perfect. They're working toward it, and I believe they still can do it. One never knows what's going to happen in a basketball game on the floor that night."

If Sister Jean really is jumping around after a Final Four run this year, the basketball won't be the only appointment viewing.