Travon Walker in Top 3 of 2022 NFL Draft Would Be a Massive Mistake
When an NFL team gambles on potential with a top draft pick, the selection could pay off, but it may also sting for years.
When analysts and those within the league break down prospects, a player's physical profile can outweigh lackluster collegiate numbers, which is the case for Travon Walker, who may be in play as a top-three selection.
We can point to examples of edge-rushers who didn't rack up eye-popping pass-rushing numbers on the collegiate level but jumped off to a productive career start. The MMQB's Albert Breer heard of a comparison between Walker and Minnesota Vikings edge-rusher Danielle Hunter, but remember, the latter came off the board in the third round, which is a safe gamble.
On the NFL Network's Good Morning Football show, Peter Schrager of Fox Sports discussed the possibility that the Jacksonville Jaguars could take Walker with the No. 1 overall pick:
Schrager gave some insight about Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke's draft history and why he may value Walker's athletic profile over more polished prospects or players with stronger resumes such as Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux.
During the segment, Schrager mentioned Aldon Smith, who had the physical tools to explode on the pro level and logged 33.5 sacks through his first two seasons. With that said, the Missouri product had an 11.5-sack campaign as a redshirt freshman, and he went No. 7 overall in the 2011 draft.
Even DeForest Buckner, another former Baalke draft pick during his time as the San Francisco 49ers general manager, logged 10.5 sacks in his final term at Oregon. Arik Armstead only registered four sacks as a collegian, but he came off the board as the No. 17 overall pick, which is a good spot to take a chance on a high-upside prospect.
At No. 1 overall, the Jaguars should take a defensive prospect who's further along in development, and therefore has a better chance to produce right away, or a player who can protect quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Why roll the dice on Walker's potential when Alabama's Evan Neal or North Carolina State's Ikem Ekwonu can protect the team's biggest investment under center for about a decade or longer?
If the Jaguars want a pass-rusher, Hutchinson, who has a higher floor because of his pass-rushing move set and refined technique, would better suit the team's need on the edge.
Though Thibodeaux needs work with his hand usage and secondary pass-rush moves, he still possesses great upside because of his size, speed and length combination at 6'4", 254 pounds with 33⅛" arms. By the way, the Oregon standout had nine sacks and 14 tackles for loss as a true freshman.
At No. 1 overall, Jacksonville should avoid a one-year starter who doesn't have much pass-rushing production on his resume. With that approach, the Jaguars would minimize the probability of taking a bust, and the same goes for the Detroit Lions at No. 2 as well as the Houston Texans with the third overall selection.
The Lions don't have a strong need on the edge. Their coaching staff helped Charles Harris turn his career around after he flamed out with the Miami Dolphins and had an underwhelming 2020 season with the Atlanta Falcons. The 2017 first-rounder logged 65 tackles, 10 for loss, 7.5 sacks and 34 pressures in 2021. Just two years ago, Romeo Okwara registered a 10-sack campaign. His brother, Julian, flashed as a second-year pass-rusher, logging five sacks and 14 pressures.
While Detroit shouldn't pass up on an upgrade at the position, Walker may need a year or two before his physical traits translate into pro production. As of right now, he's not a clear-cut improvement over Harris or the Okwara brothers. On the other hand, Hutchinson and Thibodeaux would likely crack the starting lineup as rookies because of their pass-rushing production.
As for the Texans, they need a prospect who can bolster the pass rush right away. Their defense finished tied for 27th in sacks (32) and ranked 28th in pressure rate (20.7 percent) last season.
Walker can provide versatility, and he's already a reliable run defender, but as Derrik Klassen points out in his Bleacher Report scouting analysis, the Georgia product looks a bit raw as a pass-rusher:
"On passing downs, Walker lacks consistency, but the tools are there. He flies off the ball at times (usually better when standing up) and displays better flexibility than expected for a player his size, which is a devastating combo when paired with his length and overwhelming punch.
"Walker needs to hone his sequencing as a pass-rusher, as well as be more consistent in how he drives his legs through contact, but he can still be disruptive as he is right now."
Through three terms at Georgia, Walker finished with 9.5 sacks and 19 quarterback hurries.
If Houston wanted a Day 1 prospect who can set the edge against the run and play in different spots across the defensive line next season, Walker would fit the description, but that type of player doesn't usually come off the board within the top three selections. Teams can use that pick on a mid-to-late first-rounder. The Texans should hope that either Hutchinson or Thibodeaux falls to them at No. 3.
In terms of draft position value, Walker is a better fit for teams slightly outside of the top three spots.
According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, the top six clubs in draft order have scheduled a visit with Walker.
The New York Giants and New York Jets don't have to use their top-five selections on Walker because they also hold pick Nos. 7 and 10, respectively. The Texans will have their second turn in the first round at No. 13, but the Georgia product isn't likely to fall that far after he boosted his stock with an impressive NFL Scouting Combine performance.
The Giants and Jets sit in sweet spots with a pair of top-10 picks that will allow them to take a swing at Walker without overvaluing him.
As for the Jaguars, who have one first-rounder, they should take a prospect who's more likely to play a big role in his rookie season. The Lions and Texans have multiple Day 1 picks, but both clubs should avoid the increased potential of a bust with their top-three selections and either take a more proven pass-rusher or trade up for Walker if he falls outside of the top 10.
Walker may become a productive pass-rusher on the pro level, but he's not worth the risk in the top three.
College statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
