UFC 281 Predictions: Bleacher Report Main Card Staff Picks

Each November, the UFC takes over New York City’s hallowed Madison Square Garden with a blockbuster pay-per-view. That time of year is once again upon us: this Saturday, the promotion will blow the roof off the world’s most famous arena with the stacked UFC 281 card.

Headlining honors for the event will go to a middleweight title fight between champion Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira. The two fighters have met twice before, both times in the kickboxing ring, with Pereira winning both encounters. While Adesanya is considered one of the top fighters in all of MMA, this clash with his old foil is viewed as one of the toughest tests of his career.

In the UFC 281 co-main event, two-time strawweight queen Carla Esparza will look for the first title defense of her second title reign against former champion Zhang Weili. Despite her accolades, the champ will enter the Octagon as a notable underdog and looks to have an uphill battle on her hands.

In the middle bout of the main card, lightweight stars Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier will collide in a bout that is rife with title implications.

Before that, former lightweight champ Frankie Edgar will make the final walk of his MMA career, taking on Chris Gutierrez down at bantamweight.

The main card opener, finally, will see Adesanya’s friend and stablemate Dan Hooker look to crack a two-fight skid against streaking Peruvian Claudio Puelles at lightweight.

Keep scrolling to see who the B/R combat sports squad is picking to win these dynamite fights in The Big Apple.

Tom Taylor: It would be easy to write Dan Hooker off as washed. We’ve seen him lose quite a few times recently. But look who he’s lost to in his last two appearances: Islam Makhachev, who is now the lightweight champ, and Arnold Allen, who is now one of the top contenders at featherweight. Yeah, he’s been losing, but not all losses are created equal.

I think Hooker should still have more than enough left in the tank to deal with Puelles, who, while clearly benefiting from the tutelage of Henri Hooft, is still pretty unproven.

Hooker by unanimous decision

Scott Harris: Hooker went from promising youngster to grizzled veteran in the span of like two weeks. He finally has a beatable opponent on paper in Puelles, who will try to get the action to the ground to initiate scrambles and submission attempts but will be outmatched by Hooker's kickboxing, which is still plenty sharp.

Hooker by TKO, Rd. 2

Lyle Fitzsimmons: A couple of the far lesser sharks in the 155-pound pond get together to kick off the PPV show, and it ought to be at least mildly entertaining if not unforgettable. As my learned colleagues indicated, Hooker is still legit on his feet and has fallen recently to high-enders, which should mean he handles Puelles.

Hooker by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: I don’t like this fight at all. Clearly, Frankie Edgar’s days as a top fighter are over. That’s why he’s retiring. So why has he been matched up with a prospect like Gutierrez, who is not only a full decade his junior, but on a sweet win streak? It’s bad matchmaking, and it would have been way cooler to send Edgar off against somebody of his vintage, like Dominick Cruz.

All that is to say I don’t see this one going any better for Mr. Edgar than his two recent fights with Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Vera. Gimme the young guy in a fight that breaks the hearts of a lot of old-school fans.

Gutierrez by TKO, Rd. 2

Scott Harris: I see what the UFC is trying to do here. They're trying to use the 41-year-old former champion in Edgar to put over the rising talent in Gutierrez who is 10 years his junior. But it feels like too little, too late. Edgar's quickness and, more importantly, his chin appear to have aged out of the picture. But you know what? Sound the upset alarms. The old guy digs deep and gives the local fanbase the storybook ending they're dying to see.

Edgar by split decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: If they're comparing resumes, it's not a contest. The bad news for the 41-year-old Edgar is that they'll be punching and kicking, not just looking at bullet points. I'm as sentimental as the next guy, and Edgar will certainly have my best wishes as a fellow old man, but there's a 41-year-old fighting a 31-year-old just seems too much to ask.

Gutierrez by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: This is a crazy matchup. Both guys have solid striking and big power, which makes it really tough to make a confident prediction. Chandler’s takedowns could definitely make things interesting, but I see this one unfolding mostly on the feet, and I don’t believe there is any lightweight in the UFC who can beat Dustin Poirier in a straight-up firefight.

Eddie Alvarez couldn’t do it. Justin Gaethje couldn’t do it. Max Holloway couldn’t do it. Conor McGregor couldn’t do it. I doubt Chandler, with his questionable chin and habit of slipping into wild brawls, will be able to either

Poirier by KO, Rd. 1

Scott Harris: There's only one thing you need to do for this fight. What you need to do is, you need to batten down the hatches. Batten them! Put it this way: these guys aren't coming out the same way they came in. What stands out to me here is the diversity of Poirier's standup game. He can attack behind his jab from range or take it into the phone booth.

So a brawl, which is what both of these men and the rest of the world are wanting and expecting here, would probably favor Poirier unless Chandler were to land one on the button. That is certainly possible, as is a heavy dose of Chandler's power wrestling, but give me the Louisianan to settle another grudge match. It goes all the way and takes Fight of the Night.

Poirier by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons:

The king of Bellator, Chandler arrived with a lot of sound and fury, but his presence hasn't signified much of anything this far. He was vaporized by Charles Oliveira and outrumbled by Justin Gaethje before beating the lingering husk of Tony Ferguson. Poirier has operated and been successful on a higher plane and just seems like the guy who has more dog in him (in a good way) when things get fierce.

Poirier by unanimous decision

Tom Taylor: Carla Esparza has had a great career in the UFC, with two title wins in the stacked strawweight division. Still, it’s hard for me to give her a chance against the former champ Zhang Weili, who is seemingly her superior in every area.

On the mat, Esparza might—might—have a technical edge, but that edge will be counterbalanced by Zhang’s ridiculous physical tools. And when it comes to striking—both technique and power—Zhang is obviously the better fighter by a mile. Have you seen her working pads at Bangtao in Phuket? She is terrifying.

The Chinese star reclaims the title in violent fashion.

ˆZhang by TKO, Rd. 2

Scott Harris: I'm with Tom on this one. Weili is stronger and/or better in every phase here. Esparza is chronically underestimated, even as she wears the strawweight belt for the second time. Her wrestling is terrific, if a bit dry. But Weili feels inevitable here.

Zhang by TKO, Rd. 1

Lyle Fitzsimmons:

File this under "I just can't see it." Though she's a two-time champion and will surely go down as one of the UFC's most memorable fighters, it's difficult to see a path for Esparza to succeed. Weili has holes and they've been exploited by others, but it doesn't seem possible here.

Zhang by KO, Round 1

Tom Taylor: Ancient wisdom dictates that every fighter, no matter how dominant, has a rival that is tailor-made to defeat them. For Anderson Silva, it was Chris Weidman. For Max Holloway, it was Alexander Volkanovski. In the case of Israel Adesanya, I believe it's Alex Pereira.

Pereira is at least as good as Adesanya in terms of striking technique but clearly packs significantly more stopping power than the champion. He will also benefit from the fact that Adesanya, being a better striker than just about everyone he’s fought in MMA to date, has never needed to develop much of a takedown game.

History will probably remember Adesanya as a more accomplished fighter than Pereira overall. In fact, it would not be surprising to see Pereira wrestled into sawdust by the likes of Robert Whittaker or Derek Brunson somewhere down the road. But in this matchup, he’s the man. Just like he was in the kickboxing ring.

Pereira by KO, Rd. 2

Scott Harris: Am I the only one who thinks Izzy wins this in a cake walk? The reigning middleweight champ, who is a -205 favorite on DraftKings, is facing a guy who has the great equalizer in his left hand. I also don't think Adesanya will shy away from grappling—a clear weakness for Pereira—if the opportunity presents itself. He'll rely on his lightning-fast movement to avoid a direct hit from Pereira while landing his own laser-guided offense.

Plus, Adesanya understands and thrives in the biggest moments. This is just Pereira's fourth fight in the UFC. Don't sleep on this intangible; it's a critical attribute that often separates the good from the great. The champ knows full well what this is: a pivotal chapter in his story. Pereira has known the highest heights of kickboxing, but this stage—and this version of Adesanya—are on a different level.

Adesanya by unanimous decision

Lyle Fitzsimmons: It wouldn't shock me at all to get another five-round snore-fest that'd guarantee Adesanya stretches his title reign. And I don't argue that getting it to the floor would exploit a Pereira weakness. But going to the ground isn't exactly an Adesanya strength either, so I think this one resembles a kickboxing match, which is bad news for the champ. For the second time this year, an unbeatable champ gets beat in a PPV main.

Pereira by KO, Rd. 2