The B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football in Week 10
The 2022 NFL season is nine weeks in, exactly halfway home for the regular season. In fantasy football, we're even further along. The final month of the fantasy regular season—and with it the stretch run for the playoffs—are just around the corner.
That ramps up the pressure. The need to set the optimal lineup. To do whatever is necessary to get a win.
You see, for every fantasy manager who has ridden a big year from New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley to a mark of 6-3 or 7-2 and a collision course with the playoffs, there's another who drafted Najee Harris of the Pittsburgh Steelers instead and sits at 3-6 or 2-7, hanging on for dear life.
And for everyone in one of those groups, there are two managers who are 5-4 or 4-5 and fighting for their postseason lives.
The thing is, there's still enough time left in the regular season for even those 3-6 managers to turn things around and make a push for the playoffs. Or for things to fall apart for the 6-3 managers.
Everyone needs a win, whether it's to strengthen a playoff case, salvage it or just make yourself feel better about a season that hasn't gone according to plan.
And winning is precisely what The B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football in Week 10 is here to help you do.
Week 10 Smash Starts
If you rolled out Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields ahead of his record-setting rushing performance, your fantasy team likely did OK in Week 9. Ditto for Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams and his huge first half against the Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert and his 100-yard effort on Thursday night.
If you started Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon and the rest of your team did anything, you almost certainly rolled to a win. Mixon's five-score explosion was the biggest single-game fantasy output of the season in points-per-reception points.
Mixon can't help you this week (he's on bye), but the following players are all set to carry fantasy teams to victory in Week 10.
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears (vs. DET) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,500)
What's the old saying about not fixing things that aren't broken? The Packers struggled against the Detroit defense last week, but that says a lot more about how bad Green Bay is than how good the Lions are defensively. Fields is a legitimate top-five fantasy option in Week 10.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs. CLE) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,700)
In terms of production relative to draft slot, it's hard to find a better value this year than Tagovailoa, who ranks sixth in fantasy points per game among quarterbacks despite barely playing in Week 4. Look for the good times to keep rolling at home Sunday against an average Browns pass defense.
Running Back
David Montgomery, Chicago Bears (vs. DET) (DraftKings Value: $6,000)
Last week against the Dolphins, Montgomery received twice as many carries as Khalil Herbert. If that split holds against Detroit's NFC-worst run defense, Montgomery should have a big day. The Lions have also allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns (13) in the league.
Cordarrelle Patterson, Atlanta Falcons (at CAR) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,400)
Patterson found the end zone twice last week in his return to action after a stint on injured reserve. Now Patterson faces a Carolina run defense that has allowed 139.3 rushing yards per game and the third-most PPR points per game to running backs.
Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars (at KC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)
Kirk had himself a day last week, hauling in eight catches for 76 yards and a score against the Raiders. A similarly productive effort could be in the offing against a Chiefs defense surrendering the seventh-most PPR points per game to opposing wide receivers this year.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (at PIT) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800)
Nine weeks into his rookie year, Olave is a top-20 fantasy wideout in terms of both total PPR points and points per game. He hasn't recorded less than 10 PPR points in a week in which he's played since back in Week 1. And no team has allowed more fantasy points per game to wideouts than the Steelers.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams (vs. ARI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,600)
Sometimes fantasy managers just have to put the week before out of their minds. Such is the case with Higbee's Week 9 doughnut—forget it. Redemption is coming in Week 10 in the form of an Arizona Cardinals team that just allowed a 5/96/0 stat line to Seattle's Noah Fant.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (at SEA) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,500)
Otton is quietly picking up steam. The rookie has topped 10 PPR points in two of the past three games and reeled in his first career touchdown last week. This week Otton faces a Seahawks team that ranks second in the league in PPR points per game given up to tight ends.
Week 10 Must-Fades
Busts are just a part of fantasy football. We all wish they were not, but they are. And the 2022 season has been no different.
The quarterback position is littered with veterans who haven't played up to expectations. Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has gone from consensus first overall pick to banged-up anchor around the necks of fantasy managers.
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase and Las Vegas Raiders tight end Darren Waller have combined missed time and inconsistency.
In Week 10, the list of disappointing performers will get that much longer.
And the players listed here are going to join it.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (at BUF) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,000)
While fantasy managers breathlessly await more clarity on Josh Allen's status for Sunday's battle of Super Bowl contenders, we already have clarity on something else. The Buffalo Bills are a dismal fantasy matchup for quarterbacks this year. Give Cousins the week off if possible.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (at SF) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800)
Herbert's 2022 season has been statistically disappointing so far, and there's a lot working against him in Week 10. The third-year-pro will potentially be down his top two wide receivers, and the Niners are first in the league in total defense and eighth against the pass.
Running Back
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (at LAR) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200)
Conner was good but not great in his return to action last week, notching 64 total yards on 12 touches against the Seattle Seahawks. That's closer to his ceiling than his floor against a Rams defense that has given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs in 2022.
AJ Dillon, Green Bay Packers (vs. DAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,700)
With Aaron Jones banged up, quite a few fantasy managers are clinging to the hope this will finally be the week that Dillon gets going. As Admiral Ackbar would say, "It's a Trap!" The Cowboys have given up the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs in 2022.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. SEA) (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300)
There has been no shortage of surprises in Seattle this year, but one of the biggest has to be the performance of the team's young cornerbacks. For the season, the Seahawks have given up the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to wide receivers.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (at PHI) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)
McLaurin's fantasy production has gotten a boost from the insertion of Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. But this week, he faces a Philadelphia Eagles team that ranks 21st in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. He'll also likely see a lot of Darius Slay in coverage.
Tight End
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. WAS) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500)
As was already mentioned, Goedert is coming off a big Week 9 when he was fantasy football's highest-scoring tight end. But Goedert also isn't matchup-proof, and only one NFL team has surrendered fewer fantasy points per game to tight ends this year than the Commanders.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys (at GB) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,800)
Two weeks ago, Schultz finally offered fantasy managers a glimpse of the player who was a top-five fantasy tight end in many scoring systems a year ago. But this week, he gets a Green Bay Packers team allowing the third-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends this season.
Week 10 Mastering the Matchups
The good news in fantasy leagues is that we survived the first Byepocalypse (or Byemaggedon, if you prefer). The first six-team bye week has passed.
The bad news is that another is coming in Week 14 (timing that is spectacularly bad for fantasy, as that's the final week of the regular season in most leagues), and we still have four teams on siesta in Week 10.
The Baltimore Ravens are off, so no Lamar Jackson or Mark Andrews. Forget a repeat performance from Joe Mixon, as the Bengals are also off. The New England Patriots are on a bye, so no Rhamondre Stevenson. And the New York Jets are off, so no…the Jets are off.
Whether you have one of those players on your roster, are dealing with injuries or have a player you'd as soon fade this week, here are some matchup plays set up for big things in Week 10.
Quarterback
Andy Dalton, New Orleans Saints (at PIT) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500)
Dalton isn't lighting the world on fire, but he has posted top-12 fantasy numbers at his position over the past month. This week he faces a Steelers defense that looks nothing like the Pittsburgh defenses of old. The Steelers are dead last in the AFC against the pass in 2022.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at KC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,400)
Lawrence still hasn't played like the guy the Jaguars thought they were getting with the first overall pick in 2021, and the odds of Jacksonville winning this game are slim to none. The odds are far better, however, that Lawrence and the Jags rack up garbage-time numbers late against a soft Chiefs defense.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. JAX) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000)
This isn't a play for the faint of heart. Pacheco has very real workload concerns, given Kansas City's committee backfield. But this is a game where the Chiefs should be playing from ahead, and Pacheco is the best pure runner on the roster. Short-yardage touchdown, anyone?
Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins (vs. CLE) (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,500)
In his Dolphins debut last week, Wilson amassed 72 total yards, found the end zone and actually out-snapped Raheem Mostert. Wilson should again see a fair amount of work against a Browns team giving up the fifth-most PPR points per game to running backs this year.
Wide Receiver
Chase Claypool, Chicago Bears (vs. DET) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,800)
Claypool is still new to the Windy City, but he's now had a full week to acclimate and learn the playbook ahead of facing a Lions defense that has allowed the fourth-most PPR points to wide receivers this season. The new guy gets his first touchdown as a Bear in Week 10.
Zay Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars (at KC) (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,400)
Jones started his first season with the Jaguars on a nice little rip, only to cool off substantially. However, the 27-year-old has posted at least nine PPR points in two of the last three games, and the Chiefs have surrendered the seventh-most PPR points to wideouts in 2022.
Tight End
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos (at TEN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,400)
It hasn't taken long Dulcich long to carve out a role in the Denver offense. The rookie has piled up at least 11 PPR points in each of the last three games. Sunday, he takes on a Titans defense that has allowed the 10th most PPR points this year.
Noah Fant, Seattle Seahawks (at TB) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,200)
Fant had easily his best game as a member of the Seahawks last week against the Cardinals, hauling in five of six targets for 96 yards. This week Fant takes on a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team allowing the eighth-most PPR points per game to tight ends this season.
Week 10 Fantasy Stock Market
In quite a few redraft fantasy leagues, Week 10 brings with it the trade deadline. This is it: The last chance to make a deal that can turn a floundering season around or turn a contender from a good team into a great one.
Before we get to this week's Stock Market, a bit of advice. Far too many trade negotiations end before they even begin because the first offer made is ridiculously low. Given his injury woes of late and the sorry state of the Colts offense, it's not unreasonable to assume that Jonathan Taylor's value isn't what it was at the beginning of the year.
But if you offer A.J. Dillon and Allen Robinson II for Taylor, not only will your offer be rejected, but even if that manager was amenable to trading Taylor, it isn't going to be to you.
This isn't to say that your first offer should be your best offer—that's not how negotiations work.
But if you're interested in actually negotiating, be reasonable.
Buy Low
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
OK, so "low" is a relative concept here. Allen isn't going to come cheaply. And given his elbow injury, this isn't a play without risk. But that injury has potentially opened a window of opportunity to acquire the highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy football, especially if the team with Allen is in danger of falling from the playoff race. It will cost you a startable quarterback plus another viable weekly starter at another position, but if Allen is 100 percent (or close to it) for the fantasy playoffs, he could put a team over the top.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
Last week against the Green Bay Packers, Swift played just 10 snaps compared to 38 for Jamaal Williams—a number that does not inspire a ton of confidence from fantasy managers. But the Lions are easing Swift in after he missed time with a shoulder injury, and over the first three weeks of the 2022 season, a healthy Swift was a top-five fantasy back. There could be considerable stretch-run value available here for a reasonable cost.
Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Godwin has already made an appearance in this column as a Week 10 fade, and it has been something of a down season for the 26-year-old. Godwin is 35th in PPR points per game among wide receivers this season and has yet to find the end zone. However, Godwin has also been targeted 46 times over the past four games and has shown that he can produce as a top-12 fantasy option. Godwin's numbers are much closer to his floor than his ceiling right now, so see if you can get in ahead of the upswing.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Denver Broncos
There isn't much buzz surrounding the Denver offense in 2022, but the play of Dulcich has been a bright spot. Over the past month, he's quietly sixth among tight ends in PPR points per game. There's no guarantee the youngster can maintain that pace, but he's playing full-time, has drawn an average of six targets a week the past three games and should be available relatively cheaply.
Sell High
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
To his credit, Fields has been outstanding of late. The former Ohio State star just set a regular-season record for rushing yards by a quarterback in a game and is fantasy football's highest-scoring quarterback since Week 5. But this is the same Justin Fields who was completely invisible in September and a quarterback who is largely reliant on rushing yards for fantasy production. Fields' value is as high as it's ever going to get.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
As was already mentioned, Patterson found the end zone twice last week and finished Week 9 seventh in PPR points among running backs. He's got a favorable Week 10 matchup as well. But Patterson did that damage last week on just 13 carries and averaged less than 3.4 yards per carry. The Atlanta ground game appears headed toward a three-headed committee attack—one best extricated from if you can get a decent return for Patterson.
Curtis Samuel, WR, Washington Commanders
At first glance, Samuel's 17.1 PPR points last week has the look of a fine stat line. But 49 of Samuel's 65 receiving yards and his score came on a fluke play in the second half. It was Samuel's second straight game with just three catches, and he has been targeted more than five times just once in the last month. Samuel's WR13 ranking for the season is a mirage born of early-season production playing with Carson Wentz. A bubble. Get out before it bursts.
Cole Kmet, TE, Chicago Bears
Given what a mess tight ends have been this year, fantasy managers are grasping at straws in an effort to acquire production at the position. And over the past two weeks, only Dallas Goedert of the Eagles has more PPR points at the position than Kmet. But Kmet is almost completely reliant on touchdowns for fantasy points, he has five catches in a game just once this year, and he plays for one of the lowest-volume passing attacks in the league. Get what you can and move on.
Week 10 Reading the Defense
Fantasy managers get back two of the top defenses in the league back in Week 10. After taking Week 9 off, the Dallas Cowboys (who lead all defenses in fantasy points per game this season) will be back in action against a floundering Green Bay Packers offense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to defenses in 2022.
Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers (the No. 5 defense in fantasy points per game) return from its bye to face the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chargers rank toward the bottom of the league in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses, but over the past month, they have softened.
Those defenses are every-week starters, but if you're the type to play the matchups, here are a few defenses to take a look at in Week 10 and a few more better left alone.
Strong D/ST Plays
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. IND) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,800)
The Raiders aren't a good defensive team, but the Colts are the lowest-scoring team in the league. Sam Ehlinger has been atrocious as the Colts quarterback. And Indy's new head coach (Jeff Saturday) was 3-7 in his final year as head coach of Hebron Christian High School. What could possibly go wrong?
New Orleans Saints (at PIT) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,500)
Given the talent the Saints have defensively on paper, a pretty compelling argument can be made the team has underperformed on that side of the ball. But the Steelers are 28th in total offense, 31st in scoring and third in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses.
Arizona Cardinals (at LAR) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,700)
The Cardinals were already an interesting streaming play in Week 10 against a Los Angeles Rams team that has surrendered the most fantasy points per game to defenses. Now, with Matthew Stafford in the concussion protocol, that matchup is that much more attractive.
Weak D/ST Plays
Buffalo Bills (vs. MIN) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,700)
The Bills lead the league in points allowed per game and fourth both in yards allowed per game and fantasy points per game among defenses. But the Vikings have spent most of the season near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to defenses, and last week, the Bills defense showed a crack or two.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. JAX) (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,400)
For years the Jaguars were a matchup to target for defensive streamers. But that isn't the case in 2022, as Jacksonville is 23rd in fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses this season, and the Chiefs aren't talented enough defensively to buck that bad matchup.
Green Bay Packers (vs. DAL) (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,400)
To their credit, despite zero help from the team's offense, the Green Bay defense has been solid. Green Bay is sixth in total defense and sports the best pass defense in the NFC. But Dallas is a balanced offensive team and a bad fantasy matchup, ranking 27th in fantasy points per game given up to defenses.
Week 10 Fantasy Mailbag
Every week during the 2022 season, I'll be pulling a handful of fantasy football questions from the Bleacher Report app and answering them here. Hopefully, those answers will aid not only the managers making the query but others as well.
Have a question you want to have answered? Head on over to the fantasy football section of the app and make with the asking.
Trade away Jonathan Taylor for Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison? -- @Shorty_1
That this trade is even a consideration shows just how bad things have gotten with Taylor. And the thing is, you should do the deal. Yes, Taylor is back at practice, which is a good thing. But the Colts are 30th in the NFL in rushing and dead last in scoring. Taylor has already missed time this year. And in getting Cook and Mattison, you have built-in insurance against an injury to your RB1.
Need 3 of these wide receivers in a PPR league. Michael Pittman, Christian Kirk, D.J. Moore, Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore. -- @TomSon121
We'll start here by ruling Pittman out. There's just too much uncertainty in Indianapolis if there are viable alternatives, although Pittman vs. DJ Moore is a close call. Moore just went 6/152/1 against Atlanta in Week 8, though, so he gets a spot. So does Kirk, who is both coming off a big week and has a plus matchup. That leaves Rondale Moore and Mooney. Mooney has topped 12 PPR points in three of the last four games and gets a top-five matchup for his position with Detroit. The third spot is his.
I'm already starting Nick Chubb at running back. Should I start Miles Sanders or Tony Pollard with him? -- @GeauxTigers13
This is actually a pretty easy call. Were Ezekiel Elliott out of the picture, it would be Pollard by a mile. But Elliott is back at practice, and there has been nothing to indicate that Pollard's huge day in Week 8 changed the backfield split in Dallas. Miles Sanders isn't going to get 20 carries. He probably won't rush for 100 yards. But Sanders has at least 70 rushing yards and a touchdown in three straight games. He's a locked-in RB2 play at this point, while Pollard is a higher-variance flex play.
With Lamar Jackson on bye, who should I pick up off the wire to start at quarterback this week—Jacoby Brissett or Marcus Mariota?
This is a close call. For the season, Mariota has been more productive.h He's 12th among quarterbacks in fantasy points, largely because of his rushing ability. But Brissett has the better matchup against a Dolphins team allowing the most fantasy points in the league to quarterbacks this season. If you're willing to sacrifice a little ceiling for floor, roll with Mariota. If you want to squeeze every possible point from the position, go with Brissett in a game with sneaky shootout potential.
I have narrowed down my flex spot to two players, but I'm hopelessly stuck, so it's either ask you or flip a coin. PPR…D'Onta Foreman vs. the Falcons or JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. the Jags? -- @TwoFace
This is a pretty close call. On one hand, we just saw Foreman gash the Falcons for 118 yards and three scores on 26 carries two weeks ago. On the other, we have a player in Smith-Schuster who has 22 catches for 325 yards and two scores over the past three weeks—a stretch during which he is sixth among wide receivers in PPR points per game. Were the Chiefs facing a stiffer test, I'd give the edge to Smith-Schuster. But I'm going to follow the touches and past precedent and give a slight edge to Foreman.
THE Fantasy Bust of Week 10
No one player can make or break an entire season. Even cataclysmic injuries to top-five picks can sometimes be overcome with some waiver wire magic and/or a trade or two.
This is where everyone who drafted Josh Allen looks up hopefully, shrieks a little and then goes back to reading The Complete Idiot's Guide to Elbow Injuries.
However, one player can make or break a week. Get a huge game from the right guy, and a team can cruise. Have a starter lay an egg, though, and it can be game over.
With that in mind, we're going to conclude each edition of the B/R Guide to Dominating Fantasy Football with one player who will define the week to come, for better or worse. The Boom (or Bust) of the Week.
In Week 10, it's a "Bust" and one of the biggest (and hottest) names in fantasy football.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (at SF) (DraftKings DFS Value: $8,400)
Ekeler started the season slowly. But over his past five games, he has been on an absolute tear. Over that span, Ekeler has eclipsed 100 total yards three times, topped 150 total yards once, scored a jaw-dropping 10 total touchdowns and scored more fantasy points than any running back in the league—despite having his bye week.
It has been quite the run. But it's ending this week.
There are a couple of warning signs inside that explosion. Ekeler hasn't been effective as a runner, averaging less than 3.1 yards a carry since Week 6. He's living off dump-offs, with a ridiculous 37 targets over the last three games alone.
With the Chargers' wide receivers banged up, Ekeler has been the focal point of the offense, and the San Francisco 49ers know that as well as we do.
The 49ers have had an extra week to scheme how to take away the one thing that is consistently working for the Chargers. In linebacker Fred Warner and safety Talanoa Hufanga, the Niners have a pair of players with the ability to stay with Ekeler in coverage.
The 49ers are first in the NFL in both total defense and run defense. And the Niners are dead last in the NFC in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
Ekeler is a must-start in season-long formats, if only because the odds that a better option is sitting on the bench are remote. But he's a waste of salary in DFS, and it's more likely he finishes outside the top 12 than inside the top five.
Looking for fantasy rankings? Check out Gary's Week 10 Big Board!
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Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.