Predicting 2022 All-NBA First, Second, Third Teams

The stretch run of the NBA schedule is exactly as it sounds: an all-out sprint to the finish of this 82-game trek.

With the Association collectively through the first three-quarters of the 2021-22 campaign, it should be all gas and no brakes from here on out.

Things can and will change over the next month-plus, some of them dramatic enough to reshape the playoff picture and alter the outcome of award races. Still, there is enough data on the books to make educated guesses about what is still to come.

In fact, that's our intention here, as we are combining current production with future projections to predict how the three All-NBA teams will take shape at season's end.

Guard: Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns

It's possible Paul won't suit up again in the regular season due to his thumb fracture, but the 58 games he already put in the books were productive enough to save this spot.

The Point God lived up to the label with an Association-best 10.7 assists against just 2.4 turnovers per night. He trails only Stephen Curry in raw plus/minus (plus-419), and Paul paces all rotation regulars on the league-leading Suns in net differential (plus-6.7 points per 100 possessions).

            

Guard: Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz

This is the toughest argument, which isn't a knock on Mitchell. He has been awesome; it's just that other players at the position have been, too. Giving Mitchell the nod means denying it to James Harden, Trae Young, Devin Booker, Darius Garland and Zach LaVine, and that cannot be done easily.

Saying all of that, Mitchell seems likeliest to end the season with the best combination of individual brilliance and team success of the bunch. He is one of only 10 players averaging 25 points, five assists and four rebounds. His advanced statistics show one career high after the next and include top-20 marks in player efficiency rating (22.9, 16th), box plus/minus (5.1, 15th) and RAPTOR (plus-4.4, 16th).

             

Forward: Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

The Heat are in the driver's seat to pick up the top seed in the East, and that could nudge some voters in Butler's direction to ensure this elite team is represented. More voters, though, will be drawn to Butler himself, since virtually every metric other than three-point shooting paints him as one of the best in the business.

His stat sheets are routinely overstuffed—21.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists so far—despite the fact he is more than happy to share touches with teammates. He doesn't pace Miami in shots, assists or usage percentage and still winds up with gaudy box scores. He also makes a boatload of winning plays, which are technically intangible but manifest in elite advanced marks like .244 win shares per 48 minutes (sixth overall) and a 7.2 box plus/minus (seventh).

           

Forward: Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors

There were times last season when it was fair to question Toronto's decision to max out Siakam and plan its post-Kawhi Leonard rebuild around him. Those questions have all been silenced this season, as Leonard's former sidekick has established himself as a certified star.

Siakam is the same energizing, versatile hustler who once thrived in a niche role, only now his arsenal is overloaded with scoring tricks at every level and perpetually improving passing and handles. He is one of six players averaging 21 points, eight rebounds and five assists, a distinction shared with four MVPs (Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, LeBron James and James Harden) and probably a future one (Luka Doncic).

               

Center: Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

Towns has long been a statistical monster, but his numbers have often rung a bit hollow given Minnesota's lack of success. However, the Timberwolves' push to a top-seven seed—there's still time to climb higher, too—could be the boost Towns needs to snatch this honor away from Rudy Gobert, the third-team center each of the past three seasons.

To be clear, there are advanced metrics that favor Gobert, and voters could agree with them. Still, Towns' traditional numbers jump off of the page easier (24.5 points on 52.2/40.8/81.7 shooting, 9.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists), and his huge games are more memorable since offensive outbursts are far more highlight-friendly than defensive dominance. That might sway enough voters his way, particularly if there isn't a massive gap in wins between Utah and Minnesota (only four so far).

Guard: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Curry spent much of the early portion of this campaign in pole position of the MVP race, but he and the Warriors have since cooled off enough to land him on the second team.

That's quite a consolation prize, by the way, since it means he's still a top-four player at his position, and the distinction is well-earned. He paces all players in total plus/minus (plus-479) and three-point splashes (4.6 per outing) and trails only Nikola Jokic in RAPTOR WAR (6.7). If Golden State gets its groove back soon enough—perhaps whenever Draymond Green returns—Curry might still have time to snag a first-team spot.

            

Guard: Luka Doncic, Dallas Mavericks

Doncic is once again doing what a statistical savant does. For the third consecutive season, his numbers boggle the mind (27.5 points, 9.1 rebounds and 8.8 assists per night).

His previous two outputs earned him first-team honors, and it's possible this effort does, too. But our crystal ball envisions two guards posting just high enough marks on the individual and team fronts to land Doncic here.

            

Foward: Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets

A healthy Durant forms a credible argument for best-player-on-the-planet status, but for the second consecutive season, his injury issues are forcing us to ask how much of his healthy version is enough for this kind of accolade.

In 2020-21, he dominated over 35 games, but voters deemed that sample size too small for All-NBA honors. This time around, though, he is already at 36 games and on the cusp of returning, so he should be able to clear whatever benchmark voters set. He sits third in the scoring race (29.3), is a hot spurt away from 50/40/90 enshrinement (52.0/37.2/89.4) and owns the campaign's fifth-highest player efficiency rating (26.1).

            

Forward: Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

The Celtics' climb up the standings (12-2 over their last 14 games) mercifully paused the existential questioning of the Tatum-Jaylen Brown dynamic and freed up the Boston spotlight to marvel at how stinkin' good Tatum (and this defense) really is.

He'll always be an electric scorer at heart, but he is proving to be an increasingly willing passer (career-high 20.5 assist percentage) and perpetually rising rebounder (personal-best 8.3 a night). Tack on enviable versatility on the defensive end, and you're looking at one of the top two-way talents in the game. To that end, his 9.7 RAPTOR WAR lands behind only those of Jokic and Curry.

              

Center: Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets

An MVP ballot that doesn't feature Jokic in the first or second slot is a ballot gone wrong, so denying him a first-team spot feels foolish. But when the other top MVP candidate also suits up at center, the limits of this voting format will force an otherwise deserving first-teamer onto the second unit.

There is maybe a coin-flip difference between Jokic and Joel Embiid in this discussion and the MVP race, and if you wanted to argue for Jokic as a first-teamer, you'd have plenty of valid talking points. Advanced metrics universally love Jokic, but he loses the defensive eye test to Embiid and will probably fall short in points and wins, too. That could be enough to nudge voters away from Jokic, who has been no worst than the second-best player this season.

If jaw-dropping was an official stat, Ja Morant would lead the league by a massive margin.

The 2019 draft's No. 2 pick has always been a bolt of electricity, but this is domination at a different level. The superstar turn he hinted at in last season's playoffs has sustained over the entire campaign, and seemingly each time he hits the hardwood, he cranks the volume knob even louder. In just his last four games, he has matched his career high with 44 points, broken it with 46 and then topped that one with a 52-point outburst.

"He's a beautiful player," San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich raved after being on the wrong end of Morant's most recent eruption. "What else can you say about him? It's not just that he's athletic. ... But he makes decisions. He knows what is going on on the court. So, you combine the cerebral part of his game with his athleticism and you've got a special kid."

Morant has helped steer Memphis to an Association-best 24-6 record since December 26, averaging 30.6 points on 51.2 percent shooting, 6.5 assists and 6.2 rebounds over this stretch. He is up to eighth in box plus/minus and tied for sixth in player efficiency rating, and given how he and the Grizzlies keep ascending, he could be no-brainer for this spot by season's end.

Is it possible to earn $85 million in a single season? DeMar DeRozan seems hell-bent on finding out and making sure the Bulls get their full money's worth on the three-year pact he inked in August.

His campaign has been—in one word—majestic. He is having a career season as a 32-year-old who already had four All-Star selections on his resume prior to his Windy City arrival.

He has put up bonkers box scores before, but none that read quite like this. His 28.2 points, 35.8 three-point percentage, 24.6 player efficiency rating, 0.186 win shares per 48 minutes and 3.4 box plus/minus are among his many career highs.

Most impressive, though, is this: The Bulls, who have the East's second-best record and (when healthy) a loaded roster, have fared 9.8 points better per 100 possessions with him than without. In 11 of the 12 seasons he played prior to this, his teams actually played better when he was on the bench.

"Everybody disrespected what he's done all these years," Draymond Green said, per Cydney Henderson of USA Today. "For him to take that disrespect and not only continue to play great but take it up to another level has been incredible."

DeRozan is closing in on (at least) the first top-five MVP finish of his career. Earning his first-ever All-NBA first-team spot is quickly feeling like a lock, too.

Maybe it was inevitable given the enormous amount of success Giannis Antetokounmpo has already enjoyed, but it feels a bit as if we have entered the take-his-greatness-for-granted portion of his career.

It's not like he is being ignored or anything, but we probably aren't talking enough about the season he is having. He sits second in the scoring race (29.4), seventh in rebounding (11.4) and 15th in blocks (1.4). On the analytical end of things, he ranks first in player efficiency rating (32.3, would be best ever) and second each in RAPTOR (8.0), box plus/minus (11.4) and win shares per 48 minutes (0.294).

This level of excellence isn't normal. It might be what we expect from the two-time MVP, but that doesn't make it any less awesome.

He might be the league's most unstoppable force and its immovable object. You can build his case for collecting both the MVP and the Defensive Player of the Year award, a two-way feat he pulled off in 2019-20.

All-NBA first-team honors are a given. He earned them each of the past three seasons and could keep them coming his way for much of the next decade.

Some will gripe over this selection, and not for the typical reasons some always seem to take issue with praising LeBron James.

When weighed against expectations, the Lakers have been abysmal. Actually, you can leave expectations out of it—they're closing in on a disastrous two months for any team, losing 15 of their last 21 tilts.

Some will want to tie the team's struggles to James, especially since he may have had a hand in the construction of this flawed roster. But this isn't an Executive of the Year discussion. We're evaluating only on-court contributions here, and James' remain some of the finest around.

His 28.9 points per game are the most he has averaged since before his South Beach sojourn. His 36.8 minutes are the most he has logged in L.A. His 52.0 field-goal percentage is his highest in four seasons, while his 75.4 free-throw percentage is his best since 2011-12. 

This is where we remind you he is 37 years old and in his 19th NBA season. Ridiculous.

Still, this isn't a lifetime achievement honor or a marveling at his ability to produce at this level at this age. He is having a remarkable season for anyone. He ranks fourth in both player efficiency rating (26.2) and box plus/minus (7.7), and the players he trails seem likely to land in the top three in MVP voting: Jokic, Embiid and Antetokounmpo.

The Lakers' problems will keep James out of that discussion, but they shouldn't deny him this honor.

Last season, Joel Embiid had to settle for the silver medal, finishing behind Jokic in both MVP voting and All-NBA honors.

Since then, Embiid has: upped his scoring (league-best 29.8), rebounds (11.1) and assists (4.4), kept Philly afloat during Ben Simmons' prolonged split from the squad, upgraded his co-star from Simmons to James Harden, trimmed his absences (21 last season, 12 this year) and improved his advanced metrics virtually across the board.

Embiid played 21 fewer games than Jokic last season. Now, that difference is only seven (48 games for Embiid, 55 for Jokic). If Embiid can keep it that way and continue showing strong chemistry with Harden—potentially pushing the Sixers up the standings in the process—he could give Philadelphia its first All-NBA first-team selection since Allen Iverson got the nod in 2005.

"The way I've been playing speaks for itself, especially with everything we went through, the drama this whole year, and obviously missing a big piece, and everything we added to our team and the way our team is set up," Embiid told reporters. "So, [I] really had to take my game to another level, whether it's offensively, defensively or playmaking."

Embiid could win the scoring title and collect Defensive Player of the Year votes, all while posting the highest assist percentage (25.6) and lowest turnover percentage (10.8) of his career. Close the campaign strong, and he might do all of the above for the Eastern Conference's No. 1 seed. That sounds an awful lot like All-NBA first-team credentials to us.

             

Statistics are accurate through Tuesday's games and courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and FiveThirtyEight, unless otherwise noted.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.