Potential Disaster Scenarios for Top 4 College Football Playoff Teams

Week 11 of the college football season is upon us. Though there are still a few weeks left in the regular season, the College Football Playoff selection committee told us Tuesday where things stand with the release of its second rankings:

1. Georgia (9-0)
2. Ohio State (9-0)  
3. Michigan (9-0)  
4. TCU (9-0) 

These four teams are the only unbeaten FBS teams in the country, so it's easy to see why the committee placed them in the Top Four. It may seem like this quartet is fated to land in the playoff semifinals come December, but there are plenty of things that can happen with a lot of football to be played.

Let's run through the potential disaster scenarios for these Top Four teams.

TCU vaulted into the Top Four this week, leapfrogging Tennessee, Clemson and Alabama after their losses. The Horned Frogs are the only undefeated team in the Big 12, but they have two big road games on deck.

This week, TCU will travel to Austin to take on No. 18 Texas. The Longhorns are seven-point favorites and defeated the Horned Frogs 32-27 last season in Fort Worth. It looks like Texas is primed to pull of the upset, but that wouldn't knock out TCU.

The Frogs close the season on the road against Baylor and at home against Iowa State.

TCU should be favored versus Baylor, which has won only once over the last seven games in the series, but two road games in a row is tough for any team. The Horned Frogs have lost their last three against Iowa State, and the Cyclones knocked off TCU 48-14 last season, but ISU is 4-5 this season and just halted a five-game losing skid.

One loss wouldn't ruin TCU's playoff hopes. But two certainly would. In that scenario, even becoming the Big 12 champion likely wouldn't be enough to get a bid to the playoff.

If the Horned Frogs emerge from the Texas, Baylor and Iowa State games with just one loss, they will have to win the Big 12 Championship Game. TCU would likely play Texas, Baylor or Kansas State, all of which are 4-2 in the conference. If it loses that game, it would finish as a two-loss, non-conference champion and certainly miss out on a bid.

Like TCU, Michigan jumped into the Top Four this week. The undefeated Wolverines had been ranked No. 5 and have two big games remaining.

This week, Michigan plays 3-6 Nebraska, but the Wolverines will face No. 21 Illinois on Nov. 19. This game looked a lot more intriguing before the Illini lost to Michigan State last week. The game is in Ann Arbor, a big plus for Michigan, but Illinois features the toughest defense Michigan has played.

The Illini are still No. 1 in total defense—right in front of the Wolverines—allowing just 232.2 yards per game. If this is a low-scoring affair as expected, Michigan may have an advantage. Its offense ranks fifth in scoring, averaging 42.2 points per game. If Illinois (90th, 24.8 PPG) were to win, it would hurt the Wolverines' playoff chances, but it wouldn't knock U-M out.

The biggest game of Michigan's season will come Nov. 26 at Ohio State. Michigan defeated OSU for the first time since 2011 last season, but that game was in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines haven't beaten Ohio State in Columbus since 2000. Though it seems unlikely Michigan will drop its last two regular-season games, that would push it out of the playoff.

If Michigan beats Ohio State, it would likely win the Big Ten East and advance to the Big Ten title game. It looks like Illinois will represent the Big Ten West. If the Fighting Illini were to upset Michigan in Indianapolis, that would certainly be a disaster scenario for the Wolverines, as well.

The other scenarios for Michigan are interesting. If the Wolverines' only loss is a close one to Ohio State, Michigan could get a bid. Conference champions such as TCU, Clemson and Oregon—assuming they have just one loss—will likely get bids. If the Wolverines' only loss is a close one to Ohio State, Michigan could still potentially get a bid, but only if it gets a ton of help. But if any of those teams end up with two losses, there's a chance for a one-loss Michigan.

This scenario sounds a bit familiar, right? That's because at this point in the season, Ohio State and Michigan essentially have the same path to the CFP. Since the winner of their Nov. 26 matchup will all but assuredly decide the Big Ten East champion, everything will likely come down to that game. As if it needed even more juice, right?

First, the Buckeyes have to play Indiana at home this week. They are 40-point favorites against the 3-6 Hoosiers.

On Nov. 19, Ohio State will go on the road to face Maryland. The Buckeyes have won all seven of their meetings against the Terrapins. A loss would hurt Ohio State's playoff hopes, but it wouldn't kill them.

What would is losses to both Maryland and Michigan. That seems highly unlikely, but we're talking about potential disaster scenarios.

If Ohio State were to drop one game to Indiana or Maryland but beat Michigan and win the Big Ten Championship Game, the Buckeyes would likely be in. Ohio State, like Michigan, would still have a shot if its first loss came in The Game. As we mentioned, it would likely need a lot of help, as teams such as TCU, Oregon and Clemson would need to have two losses.

The bottom line is that Michigan-Ohio State will likely decide which Big Ten team goes to the playoff. But there is still a chance both teams could make it.

Given that Georgia just dominated then-No. 1 Tennessee last week, these scenarios seem highly unlikely. But we're here to run through them.

Let's start with the Bulldogs' remaining SEC games against Mississippi State and No. 24 Kentucky. Georgia hasn't played a true road game since Oct. 1, when it beat Missouri 26-22. The Dawgs are 16-point favorites, but MSU is 6-3.

One upset loss wouldn't knock Georgia out, but a second consecutive loss would. Kentucky is 6-3 and lost 44-6 to Tennessee. Not to mention the Wildcats have lost their last 12 against the Bulldogs. But Kentucky is 4-1 at home this season.

Now, let's say Georgia finishes the regular season undefeated with a win over Georgia Tech. This happened last season, and Alabama bet the Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. The disaster scenario this season is for Georgia to get upset by LSU in Atlanta.

Yes, LSU has two losses, including one to Tennessee. But the Tigers beat two Top 10 opponents in consecutive weeks, Ole Miss and Alabama. A two-loss team has never made it into the playoff, but the SEC champion has never not made it.

A close loss to LSU might mean both Georgia and LSU finish in the Top Four. But could a non-conference champion UGA make it in over an undefeated TCU or Big Ten champion? What about a one-loss ACC champion Clemson? For Georgia to get a fourth spot without winning the SECCG, it would likely need three of the other teams in the mix to have a loss or two already on their résumés.

Losing in the title game seems unlikely for Georgia. But if it happens, the Dawgs could be in major trouble.