NCAA Tournament 2022: February 26 Stock Watch for Men's Bubble Teams
Can you believe that the first conference tournament of the 2021-22 men's college basketball season begins Monday? And that the first conference champion will be crowned in one week?
That means for the throng of teams on the NCAA tournament bubble, it's pressure-cooker season.
And with the importance of each game ratcheted up, some teams are faring much better than others.
If you're a fan of mid-major at-large bids, things are looking up. We'll focus on Murray State, VCU, St. Bonaventure and Dayton shortly, but North Texas and South Dakota State have gone quite a few weeks since last suffering a loss and will at least be candidates for a bid if they slip up in the conference championships.
If major-conference teams are more your thing, at least Creighton and Iowa State have been winning lately, and everyone has major opportunities remaining, be it in the final 10 days of the regular season or in the conference tournament.
With two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, here are the bubble teams that recently have done the most to either improve or ruin their case for a spot in the tournament. Teams are listed in no particular order, outside oscillating between "Stock Up" and "Stock Down."
In the resume section for each team, NET is the NCAA's primary sorting metric upon which all quadrant-based records are derived. RES is the resume metric and is the average of Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record. QUAL is the quality or predictive metric, and is the average of KenPom.com, Sagarin and BPI rankings.
Stock Up: Creighton Bluejays
Resume: 19-8, NET: 59, RES: 38.5, QUAL: 63.7, No. 10 Seed on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: W vs. Georgetown, W at DePaul, W vs. Marquette, W at St. John's
In last week's bubble stock watch, there were so many "Stock Up" options that—for a fleeting moment—it felt like an unusually strong year for the bubble. We had Rutgers, Memphis and Michigan all surging into the field with authority, along with the usual stockpile of teams that marginally improved their dancing odds.
This week, however, obvious options for "Stock Up" status were just about nil.
One exception was Creighton.
The Bluejays have won six consecutive games. The first four were not particularly noteworthy, all coming against teams at the bottom of the Big East standings. But taking care of business against Butler, Georgetown and DePaul kept Creighton in the mix for a bid long enough for the wins over Marquette and St. John's to push this team somewhat comfortably into the field.
Neither win was massive, each hovering near the Quadrant 1-2 cut line. But the combined impact of those two wins was significant, bringing the Bluejays to 8-6 against the top two quadrants and leaving them with just one (not even all that) bad loss at home to Arizona State.
The closing stretch is tough, but even a 1-2 record against Providence (road), Connecticut (home) and Seton Hall (home) would probably get Creighton into the Big Dance.
Unfortunately, the Bluejays were dealt a huge blow in the second half against St. John's, losing Ryan Nembhard to a season-ending wrist injury. The freshman point guard was the heart and soul of that team, especially as of late, so this one feels a lot like Villanova losing Collin Gillespie in the final week of the 2020-21 regular season. Beating another quality opponent without Nembhard will be a major challenge.
But at least Creighton is trying to preserve an at-large bid as opposed to trying to play its way into position for one. Maybe it can sneak in.
Stock Down: Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Resume: 21-8, NET: 43, RES: 44.5, QUAL: 40.7, No. 9 Seed on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: L vs. Miami, L at Duke, W vs. Notre Dame, L at Clemson
It's hard to believe that a 21-win team from the ACC could miss the NCAA tournament, but Wake Forest did nothing worth noting in nonconference play and is limping to the finish line in one of the weakest ACCs ever.
On the nonconference front, Wake Forest's best win came in an overtime home game against Northwestern. Its second-best win was...Charlotte on a neutral court? It's not pretty.
And then in league play, the Demon Deacons lost both of their chances against Duke and have acquired four Quadrant 2 losses (at Louisville, at Syracuse, vs. Miami, at Clemson) compared to just one Quadrant 1 win (at Virginia Tech).
The Deacs have yet to suffer a loss outside the top two quadrants, but 1-4 vs. Quadrant 1 and 6-8 against the top two quadrants isn't much of a selling point.
They looked fine for a bid two weeks ago, but the losses to Miami and Clemson have changed things considerably. And there's not a whole lot the Demon Deacons can do to improve their tournament standing until at least the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament, as they close out the regular season with must-win home games against Louisville and NC State.
If current standings/projections hold, Wake Forest would be the No. 5 seed in the ACC tournament, drawing No. 4 seed North Carolina in the quarterfinals to presumably face No. 1 seed Duke in the semifinals. Usually the No. 8 vs. No. 9 game of the ACC tournament feels like a "winner makes the NCAA tournament" type of affair. But this year, the No. 4 Tar Heels against the No. 5 Demon Deacons might be the "loser goes to the NIT" showdown.
Stock Up: VCU Rams
Resume: 19-7, NET: 57, RES: 35.5, QUAL: 64.0, Third Team Out on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: W at George Mason, W at Fordham, W vs. Richmond, W vs. George Mason
We often focus on and praise the wins that move the proverbial needle, but VCU doesn't have any of those of late. The road game against George Mason was a bottom-half-of-Quadrant 2 result. The other three wins listed above were all Quadrant 3 outcomes.
Rather, for the Rams, it has been a three-week stretch of nearly imperceptible positive needle movements for a solid overall impact.
And if they do end up close to the tournament cut line, don't be surprised if there is some injury-related benefit of the doubt extended to the Rams.
They were without lead guard Ace Baldwin during their 4-4 start to the season while he recovered from a ruptured Achilles, and versatile leader Vince Williams Jr. missed the blowout loss to Dayton earlier this month. Those are major absences for six of their 12 games played against the top two quadrants, and they do still have a 6-6 record in those 12 games.
This team has been elite on defense and difficult to beat at full strength, and nine wins in the last 10 games have ensured that VCU (barring a collapse down the stretch) will at least be a team that is discussed by the selection committee.
The game at Massachusetts on Saturday is a "don't you dare mess this one up" type of affair. If the Rams win that and then split next week's two games (vs. St. Bonaventure; at Saint Louis), they'll enter the A-10 tournament with a legitimate at-large pulse. Win all three and they would likely be in the projected field heading into championship week.
Stock Down: Wyoming Cowboys
Resume: 22-5, NET: 39, RES: 36.5, QUAL: 79.3, No. 9 Seed on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: W at San Jose State, L at New Mexico, W vs. Air Force, L at Colorado State
Just to be clear, Wyoming is still in good shape to dance. The matrix has the Cowboys as a No. 9 seed, and I might even lean in the direction of a No. 8.
That said, they blew a chance to lock up their spot in the field by losing two of the last three games.
The loss at Colorado State wasn't the problem. Unless you still consider Gonzaga to be a mid-major team, the David Roddy-led Rams are arguably the best mid-major in the country. It would have been a huge win, but it wasn't a bad loss.
Rather, the New Mexico misstep is what left Wyoming with some work to do against a challenging and physically demanding closing stretch—vs. Nevada, vs. San Diego State, at UNLV and vs. Fresno State in the next eight days.
Until that point, the Cowboys' only remotely bad loss was a 66-63 game against Stanford in Hawaii. That, combined with eight wins against the top two quadrants, made it effectively impossible to deny Wyoming a spot in the projected field. But on a rare night of poor defense, they got clipped by the sub-.500 Lobos to set up a potential photo finish.
Of the four opponents left, only San Diego State is close to the projected field. However, all four are dangerous games, especially the one at UNLV. And if the Cowboys go 1-3 (or worse), they'll need at least one good win in the MWC tournament to seal the deal.
Stock Up: Murray State Racers
Resume: 27-2, NET: 22, RES: 34.5, QUAL: 37.7, No. 8 Seed on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: W at Morehead State, W vs. Austin Peay, W at Tennessee-Martin, W vs. Belmont
After blowing out Belmont for the second time this season, Murray State should be just a few more hours away from punching its ticket to the NCAA tournament.
If the Racers win at Southeast Missouri State on Saturday, they will finish the regular season at 28-2 overall and carry a perfect 18-0 record in the Ohio Valley Conference. That's bound to be enough, because it has been almost two decades since the last time a team was left out of the Dance with three or fewer losses, when 2003-04 Utah State was snubbed with a 25-3 record devoid of quality wins.
One of Murray State's two losses was a road game against Auburn, which obviously isn't a bad one. The Racers did suffer a Quadrant 3 loss to East Tennessee State in November, but the five wins over the top two quadrants since then have more than made up for that hiccup on a night when the team shot 1-of-16 from three-point range.
As the No. 1 seed in the OVC tournament, the Racers get a double bye into the semifinals. And the bottom two teams don't even qualify for the conference tournament, so it's unlikely they'll even be in a position to suffer a resume-crippling loss.
But even on the off chance that SIU-Edwardsville pulls off a pair of upsets before also knocking off Murray State, the Racers should get in—again, provided they take care of SEMO on Saturday. One bad loss wouldn't be enough to undo all they've done.
Stock Down: Oklahoma Sooners
Resume: 14-14, NET: 48, RES: 68.5, QUAL: 43.3, Seventh Team Out on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: L at Kansas, L vs. Texas, L at Iowa State, L at Texas Tech
Oklahoma was part of our "Stock Down: 40 percent of the Big 12" group one week ago, and I try to avoid harping on the same team in back-to-back weeks in this piece. (You're welcome, Indiana.)
However, the Sooners kind of forced the issue by getting trounced in consecutive losses.
The previous week was close but no cigar for Oklahoma. It blew a late five-point lead in a two-point loss at Kansas before losing in overtime to Texas. Just a heartbreaking week for a team that was 14-10 and possibly one big win away from being in great shape for a bid.
But after winding up on the wrong end of two nail-biters, the Sooners lost by 21 at Iowa State and lost by 24 at Texas Tech to emphatically drop out of the at-large conversation.
And, if anything, those losses were even uglier than the final margins. Iowa State shot 73.5 percent from inside the arc and 53.3 percent beyond it in what was easily one of the most efficient offensive performances of the year by any team. Against Texas Tech, it was 62-29 with six minutes remaining when the Red Raiders finally relented a bit.
With the Sooners at .500 overall and holding an average rating in the six metrics below 50.0, even if they win out against Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas State, they're still going to be at least two Big 12 tournament wins away from feeling good about an at-large bid.
Stock Up: Iowa State Cyclones
Resume: 19-9, NET: 35, RES: 32.0, QUAL: 40.3, No. 8 Seed on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: L vs. Kansas State, W at TCU, W vs. Oklahoma, W vs. West Virginia
As mentioned, Iowa State shot the lights out in its blowout win over Oklahoma. And that was an important margin for a Cyclones team that—despite eight Quadrant 1 wins—was hovering in the Nos. 42-48 range both in the NET and in the other predictive metrics.
It was also a crucial victory for a Cyclones team that was 3-9 in Big 12 play before its three-game winning streak. Even though conference record isn't supposed to matter to the selection committee, many were starting to wonder if finishing in last place in the Big 12 would unofficially eliminate them from at-large consideration.
Out of nowhere, not only is Iowa State out of the basement, but it is also right in the mix for the No. 5 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Its next two games are against 6-9 Kansas State and 6-9 Oklahoma State, and winning both would likely get them up to a fifth-place finish.
Even if they lose both and the season finale at Baylor, though, the Cyclones might be OK. The 6-12 conference record would be an eyesore, but they went 13-0 in the nonconference play and picked up several quality wins. And, to reiterate, they have eight Quadrant 1 victories. Only Baylor and Kansas have more, and Gonzaga is the only team tied with the Cyclones in that category.
If they keep shooting like they have the past two weeks, though, they should be able to find at least one more win. Izaiah Brockington had a career-high 35 points in the victory over West Virginia on Wednesday as Iowa State shot better than 50 percent from downtown for the second straight game.
Stock Down: Belmont Bruins
Resume: 24-6, NET: 67, RES: 56.5, QUAL: 70.7, Sixth Team Out on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: W at Southeast Missouri State, W vs. Eastern Illinois, W vs. SIU-Edwardsville, L at Murray State
Belmont has had an impressive season. The Bruins have racked up 24 wins, including good-not-great victories over Saint Louis, Chattanooga, Iona, Drake and Furman. They are a perfect 19-0 against the bottom two quadrants, so nothing in that regard is weighing them down.
But when they have faced tournament-bound teams, it has gotten quite ugly. Belmont lost 83-53 at LSU and was swept by Murray State by an aggregate score of 158-103. And those blowout losses have decimated Belmont in the predictive metrics.
The Bruins dropped 15 spots on KenPom after the loss to LSU, dropped 16 spots after the first loss to Murray State and dropped 13 more spots after the most recent loss to the Racers.
From a pure wins and losses perspective, Belmont's resume is still respectable. If those three games hadn't gotten out of hand—or if the Bruins had more convincingly won the three Q3/Q4 games that came right down to the wire—the metrics would likely suggest this is a team that would still have an at-large prayer if it were to defeat Morehead State in the OVC semifinals before losing to Murray State for a third time in the championship game.
But the combined force of those six results leaves Belmont outside the top 50 in all six metrics and firmly in "auto bid or bust" territory. If the Bruins do lose to Murray State in the OVC finals (March 5), expect them to open the following week on everyone's bubble before gradually fading off the radar.
Stock Up: St. Bonaventure Bonnies and Dayton Flyers
St. Bonaventure's Resume: 18-7, NET: 82, RES: 50.5, QUAL: 72.3, 10th Team Out on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: W vs. Saint Louis, W vs. Massachusetts, W vs. Duquesne, W vs. Rhode Island
Dayton's Resume: 20-8, NET: 47, RES: 58.5, QUAL: 44.0, Fifth Team Out on Bracket Matrix
Four Most Recent Games: W vs. George Washington, W at Rhode Island, W at Saint Joseph's, W vs. Massachusetts
We've already discussed VCU as a team on the rise, but St. Bonaventure and Dayton are also making positive strides in the quest for a multiple-bid Atlantic 10.
For the Bonnies, the predictive metrics are the biggest deterrent. They have three Quadrant 1 wins (at Saint Louis; Boise State and Marquette on a neutral floor) and no terrible losses, but they are hovering in the 80s in the NET alongside Rutgers—albeit with fewer and less impressive top-tier victories.
They recently swept Saint Louis, though, and they have a huge opportunity coming up Tuesday at VCU. If both teams hold serve Saturday (VCU at UMass; St. Bonaventure at Saint Joseph's), the winner of that one might slide into play-in game territory. If it's a nail-biter of a win, it won't do much to improve the Bonnies' NET or KenPom rankings, but it could push them up to around 40th in the resume metrics.
For the Flyers, the predictive metrics are rock-solid, thanks to a scoring margin of plus-12.0 points per game in A-10 play. (In particular, the 68-50 win over St. Bonaventure and the 82-52 win at short-handed VCU were enormous.) But the three Quadrant 4 losses are an awful lot to overcome.
Five or so years ago when the selection committee used to put a little extra emphasis on last 10/last 12 games, those November home losses to UMass Lowell, Lipscomb and Austin Peay wouldn't be so bad. After all, they're 19-5 since that brutal start, including an outstanding neutral-site victory over Kansas. But nowadays, when evaluating a resume, you might as well throw every result in a hat and pull them out one-by-one while ignoring the date.
That said, the committee absolutely must consider the fact that we're talking about early-season results for what might be the youngest team in the country. The Flyers' primary seven-man rotation consists of a true-freshman point guard, a true-freshman center, two guys who transferred in this past summer and three "redshirt freshmen" who did play last season.
Shouldn't a team that lost six of its nine leading scorers from 2020-21 be afforded somewhat of a mulligan for the first two weeks, especially when it is playing much better since then?
If Dayton closes the regular season with wins over La Salle, Richmond and Davidson, it would be the regular-season A-10 champion and would likely be headed for the NCAA tournament.