Canadian F1 Grand Prix 2022: Odds, Preview and Top Storylines
The Canadian Grand Prix will be like any other Formula 1 race of the 2022 season—at least at the start.
Fernando Alonso qualified second on the Montreal track, while the Haas pair of Kevin Magnussen and Mick Schumacher locked out the third row.
The unlikely qualifying positions were made possible by stormy conditions on Saturday and a grid penalty that was issued to Charles Leclerc for changes to his power unit.
Leclerc will be chasing the field from the back of the pack. The Ferrari driver starts in 19th alongside Yuki Tsunoda, who also had changes made to the power unit of his AlphaTauri.
Red Bull's Max Verstappen is on the pole for Sunday's race, and he could run away with the event, like he has quite a few times this season, but there is a chance Alonso overtakes him on the start and creates a chaotic race from start to finish.
If anything, the competition for the points (top 10) and podium finishes seems to be more wide open because of the unlikely starting grid.
Canadian Grand Prix Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Max Verstappen (-280; bet $280 to win $100)
Carlos Sainz (+390; bet $100 to win $390)
Fernando Alonso (+1200)
Sergio Perez (+2500)
Charles Leclerc (+2500)
Lewis Hamilton (+2800)
George Russell (+7000)
Will Fernando Alonso Overtake Max Verstappen?
All eyes will be on the front row when the Canadian Grand Prix begins on Sunday.
Max Verstappen could continue his dominance of the Formula 1 season by beating out Fernando Alonso on the first lap and controlling the race.
Verstappen comes into Montreal with four wins in the last five races. His Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez won the other event in that span.
The far more intriguing storyline than Verstappen winning wire-to-wire is for Alonso to overtake the Red Bull driver and control the race himself.
Alonso thrived in the pouring rain on Saturday to land his position on the front row. The two-time world champion has not finished higher than seventh place this season.
Verstappen's Red Bull has more power under it than Alonso's Alpine, but the Spaniard could use his experience to maneuver past the Dutchman to create a battle for the lead.
Alonso has a real path to a podium finish on Sunday if he remains at the front of the field and follows a strong race strategy. A bunch of the normal players for top three spots are starting further back in the field. Sergio Perez starts 13th, while Charles Leclerc has to make up ground from 19th.
Alonso may be able to pull off a rare win for Alpine, but at minimum, he needs to remain in the top three, and that could be done by passing Verstappen from the outset.
How Much Ground Will Charles Leclerc Make Up?
Ferrari can't afford a third retirement in four races for Charles Leclerc.
To avoid that, Ferrari opted to replace parts of Leclerc's power unit to avoid any failures in Montreal and beyond.
Leclerc was issued a grid penalty because of the equipment replacement, which forces him to start in 19th place.
Leclerc needs to cruise through the back of the field to earn the maximum points possible for himself and Ferrari against Verstappen and Red Bull.
Verstappen leads Leclerc by 34 points in the drivers' championship. Perez moved into second place with his win at Monaco and second-place finish at Azerbaijan.
Leclerc has a faster car than most of the other drivers starting around him, so he will be expected to finish inside the top 10 at minimum.
The best-case scenario for Ferrari is that Leclerc works his way into the top six, or even the top three, thanks to terrific driving and an alternate pit strategy than the rest of the field.
The power unit changes were made to help Leclerc over the course of the season to chase down Verstappen, so Ferrari is willing to sacrifice a potential win in Canada for victories that may happen later in the season.
Leclerc will not remain in 19th if his car stays on track and how far he gets up the field could shape Ferrari's potential to win the drivers' championship.
Can Haas Make Anything of Row 3 Start?
Haas delivered the biggest surprise of qualifying with Kevin Magnussen and Mick Schumacher earning spots on the third row.
The strong qualifying runs were a welcome sight for the Haas team that has struggled at the back of the pack this season.
The third row starts will mean nothing to Haas if the team can't get some points out of Montreal.
Magnussen has not finished inside the top 10 since the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix. He finished 16th or worse in the last four races.
Schumacher has not placed inside the points all season and he needs a strong finish to turn his season around.
With Perez, Leclerc, Sebastian Vettel and Lando Norris all starting beneath 10th place, the Haas teammates could have a hard time holding on to their positions.
The conditions will be different on Sunday. The sun is expected to be out and there will be ideal conditions for passing compared to the tough downpours that were navigated on Saturday.
Haas could use the potential points from Montreal to move ahead of Aston Martin in the constructors' championship. The two teams are tied with 15 points in eighth place. AlphaTauri is 12 points ahead of them in seventh place.
Haas is not typically in the spotlight like this, and if the team fails, it will be seen as a missed opportunity and one it may not receive for the rest of the season.
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