Predicting 2023 NBA All-Star Starters and Reserves

NBA All-Star voting officially opened on Dec. 20, and we've reached the one-third mark of the 2022-23 season. Those are two good reasons to start thinking about which players will travel to Salt Lake City for the 72nd NBA All-Star Game on Feb. 19.

Picking All-Stars is a balancing act. We're talking about a glorified pickup game that's supposed to be fun, but some players have incentives in their contracts for making an All-Star team. It's serious business to them.

You never know what will happen with fan voting. The rules have been changed to avoid another Zaza Pachulia situation, but some All-Star nods still feel more like a popularity contest than a meritocratic process.

We're leaning toward the latter here, naming All-Stars based mainly on their performances to this point and what we expect them to do between now and when voting closes on Jan. 21. Trying to guess how voters—mainly fans, but also coaches and media—will behave is just too tricky.

We'll make predictions, but this is really about who deserves the honor.

Donovan Mitchell, Cleveland Cavaliers

Donovan Mitchell, the Cleveland Cavaliers' theoretically level-lifting offseason trade acquisition, has delivered the hoped-for boost in practice. Despite injuries to starters and rotation pieces alike, Mitchell has the Cavs on pace to blow past last year's 44-38 record.

Though Mitchell is still facilitating (4.5 assists per game) better than most shooting guards, he has slid comfortably into a primary scoring role alongside Darius Garland, one of the league's best passers. At 29.5 points per game on 50.3 percent shooting, Mitchell is easily in line to set career highs in both categories.

That much scoring volume at such an efficient clip would be welcome in any form, but it especially helps that Mitchell is contributing so much self-created offense.

He's draining 45.8 percent of his pull-up threes, second only to Stephen Curry among high-volume shooters. Mitchell also produces 1.24 points per possession in isolation, an elite rate bettered only by Kyrie Irving among those with at least 2.0 iso tries per game.

Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers

Though Tyrese Haliburton isn't as easy of a pick as Mitchell, his credentials are good enough to at least keep casual fans from scoffing at his inclusion here.

Thought exercise: Are you familiar with Magic Johnson and Chris Paul? They're among the best players ever to man the point guard spot in NBA history. They are also the only two players ever to complete a season (one apiece) with averages of at least 19 points and 10 assists while shooting over 38 percent from deep.

If Haliburton sustains his current rates, he'll become the third.

This isn't niche statistical cherry-picking. We're talking points, assists and long-range shooting efficiency—the absolute basics for primary shot-creators. And Haliburton is in the same conversation as two of history's greatest...in his age-22 season.

Those numbers combine with transformative impact on the Indiana Pacers' uptempo style and devilishly clever passing-lane ball-hawking to make Haliburton a deserving—if somewhat surprising—selection to start for the East.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks

With a pair of MVPs already decorating his mantle and no indication he'll relinquish a spot in the discussion for that award this season, Giannis Antetokounmpo is a shoo-in to be on the floor for the opening tip of the All-Star Game.

Though his three-point and free-throw shooting woes are points of concern, Antetokounmpo is still scoring at elite rates. In fact, his 31.6 points per game are a career high. Antetokounmpo's status as arguably the most impactful defensive player in the league is hardly a throw-in.

Night to night, nobody plays with more effort or focus than Giannis. The marriage of his relentlessly competitive makeup and overwhelming physical skill makes Antetokounmpo a no-brainer pick here.

Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum led Antetokounmpo as the MVP favorite in Tim Bontemps' first straw poll for ESPN, and that distinction owes to more than just voter fatigue. Tatum has undeniably leveled up again in his age-24 season.

The gains include improved foul-drawing (career-high 8.3 free-throw attempts per game), developed finishing craft (career-high 75.3 percent hit rate inside three feet) and all-around boosts to scoring efficiency. If his current rates hold, Tatum will produce his first season with a scoring average of at least 30 points on better than 60 percent true shooting—the unofficial volume-efficiency benchmark only a handful of elite, MVP-level superstars have ever cleared.

Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets

Whatever lack of commitment or team spirit Kevin Durant's offseason trade demand and subsequent front-office house-cleaning ultimatum may have shown, his buy-in with the Brooklyn Nets is indisputable on the floor.

Propelled by a career-high 62.9 percent hit rate on two-point shots, which is absurd for a scorer who takes only 13.3 percent of his attempts inside of three feet, KD is riding the league's featheriest mid-range game to what may be his fifth career scoring title. Nobody in the NBA has made more field goals or scored more total points than Durant this season, which feels right for this generation's preeminent bucket-getter.

Though overshadowed by his offensive contributions, it shouldn't go unnoticed that Durant is contributing to the Nets' league lead in total blocks with 1.6 swats per game.

Not that we need to pile on, but KD is also a top-10 fixture in FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR WAR, Estimated Plus/Minus and Value Over Replacement Player.

Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

It's fair to quibble with Jaylen Brown earning a nod at the guard spot, as he typically defends bigger wings and has logged only 36 percent of his minutes at the 2. That still seems like enough to give him the distinction of being listed before we get to the wild-card spots. If you want to swap him with one of the truer backcourt players from that section, go right ahead.

On pace to set new career highs in scoring (26.2 points per game), rebounds (7.5) and field-goal percentage (49.0 percent), Brown has been instrumental on both ends for a Boston Celtics team that spent the vast majority of the season to date atop the Eastern Conference.

Brown is shooting 57.9 percent from 10-16 feet and 53.3 percent from 16-23 feet, incredible accuracy well beyond his career rates that nobody but Kevin Durant should be expected to sustain. It's also unlikely Brown will continue to hit less than a quarter of his corner threes. Slight regression on two-point jumpers won't be enough to cost him clear All-Star status.

Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee Bucks

Not that it necessarily sways voters, but Jrue Holiday remains one of the top defensive guards in the league. We're crediting him for that here, along with the way he's stepped up on the other end for a Bucks team that didn't have Khris Middleton in the lineup until Dec. 2.

Holiday is currently averaging 18.8 points and 7.6 assists, both of which would be his best per-game figures since he joined the Bucks in 2020-21. He's also on pace for a 3.6 Box Plus/Minus, which would be the highest of his entire career.

Support for Holiday's positive impact shows up elsewhere, too. He's tied for 13th in the league with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in RAPTOR WAR.

Holiday's ability to create his own offense is critical to a Bucks attack prone to bogging down. Only 28.2 percent of his twos and 49.1 percent of his threes have been created via assists from teammates.

Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers

It's a good thing Joel Embiid has played over 300 fewer minutes than Durant and Tatum and roughly 100 fewer than Antetokounmpo. Otherwise, it would have been almost impossible to kick one of the four out of the East's starting frontcourt.

Embiid has to settle in as a grossly overqualified backup due to diminished volume. Inferior team performance offers another minor distinction. The Bucks, Celtics and Nets are all currently ahead of Embiid's Philadelphia 76ers in the standings.

The two-time MVP runner-up has an individual statistical case that can't be minimized, though. Embiid is eighth in RAPTOR WAR, which is cumulative. If you filter by their rate stat, he's actually fifth. EPM's rate stat, which is also noncumulative, slots him fifth behind only Luka Dončić, Nikola Jokić, Anthony Davis and Stephen Curry.

If the minute totals get much closer due to missed time by Tatum, Durant or Antetokounmpo, Embiid's league-leading 32.5 points, 9.9 rebounds and career-best 4.7 assists on 52.4 percent shooting will make an already brutal decision even tougher.

Jimmy Butler, Miami Heat

Hovering around .500, the Miami Heat rate as a mild disappointment at this stage of the season. None of the team's underperformance owes to Jimmy Butler, who has never shot it better from two-point range (55.6 percent) and whose 36.6 percent hit rate on threes is his best mark on at least 2.0 attempts per game since 2016-17.

That across-the-board efficiency is lifting Butler, an already decorated player, to new heights. This is the first season of his career to feature 90th-percentile-or-better rankings in both points per shot attempt and usage rate at his position.

We've focused on the shooting aspect so far, but Butler has always been best defined by his complete two-way game. He's one of only three players averaging at least 21.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.5 steals this season. MVP candidates Luka Dončić and Nikola Jokić are the others.

Though Butler is at the stage of his career where a games-played total in the 50s is the expectation, he was an All-Star last season despite logging only 18 games prior to Christmas. At 20 so far, past precedent and his current numbers make him a surefire All-Star.

Pascal Siakam, Toronto Raptors

Pascal Siakam's Toronto Raptors have been even shakier than Butler's Heat, but the 28-year-old forward is in the midst of a career season. That's no small feat for someone with two All-NBA nods on his resumé.

Toronto's penchant for like-sized lineups means Siakam, a forward by trade, logs significant time at center. He mans that position while also serving as a primary facilitator.

No Raptors player averages more than Siakam's 6.8 assists per game, a career high. He's also cranking out 26.2 points per game, another career high, in spite of his distribution duties. Siakam is juicing his efficiency by attacking the basket, generating 10.9 free-throw attempts per 100 possessions after topping out at 7.3 the last two seasons.

His spin move remains as devastating as it is predictable.

Jalen Brunson, New York Knicks

Other than Donovan Mitchell, you'd be hard pressed to come up with a player delivering more to his new team than Jalen Brunson with the New York Knicks.

It was especially easy to make that claim with the Knicks catching fire once the calendar flipped to December, but Brunson has been hugely impactful throughout the season. Averages of 20.4 points and 6.3 assists communicate that fairly well, but more niche dives into his numbers better express what he does for his team.

Brunson is salvaging desperate situations by posting a 64.6 effective field-goal percentage on attempts NBA.com designates as "late" in the shot clock. That's by far the most accurate rate of anyone on the Knicks with at least 15 attempts and the fourth-highest figure in the league among players who've taken at least 40 such shots. In addition, New York's turnover percentage plummets with Brunson in the game, and its offensive rating climbs by over six points per 100 possessions.

Whether hitting bailout floaters to salvage go-nowhere possessions or imparting a sense of offensive order that had been missing for several seasons, Brunson has been exactly what the doctor ordered for the Knicks.

Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat

The three-point shot still hasn't arrived, but that's the only aspect of Bam Adebayo's season that comes anywhere close to registering as a disappointment. And a career-best hit rate from the foul line (83.9 percent) suggests that broader shooting growth may still be ahead.

Adebayo is averaging 20.9 points, 9.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game and remains arguably the best switchable defender among bigs in the league. Ask Tyrese Haliburton how much he enjoyed seeing Adebayo hounding him around the three-point line during his 0-of-9 shooting night against Miami on Dec. 12.

The Heat's offense has been a wreck for most of this season, but Adebayo is keeping the defense in the top 10. He's putting out fires all over the floor and neutralizing opponents' pick-and-roll game by ably picking up guards and wings.

DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls

It's hard to keep a 25-point scorer who's making over half of his shots from the field out of the All-Star Game. DeMar DeRozan's Chicago Bulls have been among the most disappointing teams in the league, though. His poor defense coupled with the lack of clutch heroics that defined his 2021-22 season leaves him on the short end of a crowded race.

Trae Young, Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young is shooting a career-worst 30.7 percent from three, may not be a favorite among his teammates, hasn't figured out how to coexist with Dejounte Murray by moving off the ball and remains one of the worst defensive guards in the league. The Atlanta Hawks have been outscored by 6.3 points per 100 possessions when Young plays without Murray.

Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks

The Western Conference backcourt is the most crowded position on the All-Star ballot, but Luka Dončić's starting spot has been set in stone for a while now. He began his age-23 campaign with nine consecutive 30-point games, the longest such streak in 60 years, and hasn't really scaled back since.

Despite the attention that comes with being the sun in the league's most heliocentric offense, Dončić has managed to increase his scoring efficiency to career-best levels (49.4 percent) while upping his usage rate for the third straight year. That last part is especially noteworthy considering that Dončić led the league in that stat in each of the last two seasons.

Dončić's overwhelming on-ball dominance may not produce the most aesthetically appealing style, and the anecdotal evidence in Dallas is mounting that playoff runs can't sustain this way. But All-Star nods are largely about individual brilliance, and nobody has shone brighter in the West than Dončić.

The only player currently averaging at least 30 points and eight assists per game, Dončić is an absolute lock to start the All-Star Game.

Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis suffered injuries within days of one another and have similar return timelines. Curry will likely be out following a left shoulder subluxation until at least the start of the new year. Yet he, like Davis, was so brilliant prior to getting injured that excluding him from a starting spot just feels wrong.

If Curry's return timeline is longer than expected, another West guard will deserve consideration. For now, Steph's case is just too strong to deny.

Curry's plus-20.1 net rating swing is third-best among players with at least 800 minutes of court time, and he spent his entire pre-injury stretch in the top tier of the MVP discussion. He currently ranks third in RAPTOR, second in EPM and first in Offensive Box Plus/Minus.

At the time of his shoulder injury, Curry was averaging 30.0 points, 6.8 assists and 6.6 rebounds per game with a 50.0/43.4/91.9 shooting split. The lack of playing time brought about by his injury might matter in a close call with tons of competition at such a crowded positional group, but Curry could miss another 15 games and still have a case to start.

Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets

When you're a hair's breadth away from matching the all-time single-season high in Player Efficiency Rating that you set last year, it's a decent sign you've cleared the much lower bar to being one of the three frontcourt All-Star starters in your conference.

In-season comparisons to his peers are almost pointless now. Nikola Jokić's statistical trailblazing requires deeper looks into history and what seem like weekly invocations of "He's the first to do Ridiculous Thing X since Wilt Chamberlain." The latest: Jokić's preposterous 40-point, 27-rebound, 10-assist effort against the Charlotte Hornets on Dec. 18, the first of its kind since, yep, Chamberlain pulled it off in 1968.

As part of what looks like a clear effort to get teammates involved, Jokic has scaled back his scoring this year and is taking fewer shots per game than he has since 2019-20. Still, with career highs of 61.7 percent shooting from the field and 9.2 assists per game, his overall effectiveness is undiminished from its back-to-back MVP levels.

Zion Williamson, New Orleans Pelicans

Zion Williamson's status as the only player averaging at least 25 points on better than 60 percent shooting might be enough to get him consideration for a starting spot all on its own. But his real case for one of the league's most forceful downhill attackers is what he's been doing besides bulldozing his way to bucket for layups every night.

It took some time and an injury or two for the Pelicans to lean all the way into "Point Zion," which was strange considering the success they had with putting the ball in Williamson's hands back in 2020-21. But since Nov. 21, Williamson has led New Orleans in passes made, assists, potential assists and points created via assist—by huge margins in most cases.

That level of facilitation is remarkable in a player whose own individual scoring, fueled by an NBA-high-tying 18.9 paint points per game, would by itself define him as one of the best offensive players in the league.

Throw in an undeniable improvement in defensive attention and activity, and Williamson is the biggest reason why the Pelicans have the second-best point differential in the conference, despite getting only 15 games thus far from Brandon Ingram.

Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers

If Anthony Davis misses a full month due to the foot injury he suffered on Dec. 16, he will have played 25 of a possible 44 games by the time he returns. AD's absence could stretch beyond our hypothetical timeframe, which presupposes a Jan. 18 return against the Sacramento Kings. If that happens, we'll have to reevaluate.

For now, though, Davis has done more than enough in the 25 games he's played to justify a starting spot in the All-Star game.

Top-five spots in catch-all metrics like Estimated Plus/Minus and FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR align with the legitimate MVP consideration Davis' pre-injury play demanded. Though it would have been difficult for AD to secure his first MVP honor for a sub-.500 Los Angeles Lakers team, his statistical production and eye-test dominance were unquestionably All-Star-worthy.

Averages of 27.4 points, 12.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 2.1 blocks per game with 59.4 percent shooting and legitimate Defensive Player of the Year buzz are too compelling to deny Davis a spot here.

If it looks like he's going to miss significantly more time than initially forecast, players with more minutes will move ahead of him. But none of the reserves whom we'll get to in a moment has a better case than AD right now.

Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

Devin Booker's All-Star case is about more than scoring 58 points to drag his team out of a 24-point hole against a budding rival, all while leaving the experience somehow still unsatisfied. But his heroic effort against the New Orleans Pelicans on Dec. 17 is as good of a metaphor for Booker's season as you'll find.

The Phoenix Suns have been without multiple rotation players throughout the year. Jae Crowder hasn't played at all, Cam Johnson went down with a knee injury in early November, and both Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul have missed multi-game stretches. Career backups Torrey Craig, Damion Lee and Cameron Payne are among the top six on the Suns in total minutes.

In spite of all that, and because of Booker, Phoenix remains within striking distance of the West's top spot.

He and Luka Dončić are the only players in the West with at least five 40-point games this season, and Booker joins Joel Embiid in the exclusive club of scorers with multiple 50-pieces this season. The fourth-place finisher in 2021-22 MVP balloting is on pace to exceed last year's career-best Box Plus/Minus.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Oklahoma City Thunder

We only get two spots here, and in addition to Booker and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, there are two other backcourt players in the West that deserve consideration as reserves. Fortunately, a pair of wild-card selections will keep everyone happy...unless anyone gets bent out of shape over SGA being mentioned ahead of Ja Morant and Damian Lillard.

Since we've spoiled the other two names, we might as well lay out a comparison justifying SGA's inclusion ahead of them.

Lillard's case suffers because he's played the fewest games—20 versus Gilgeous-Alexander's 29 and Morant's 25. In addition to having a playing-time edge, SGA is also tops among the trio in points per game, Box Plus/Minus, VORP, win shares and RAPTOR WAR.

Gilgeous-Alexander also has far less help than Lillard, who gets support from Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant, and Morant, whose Memphis Grizzlies won 56 games last season (while going 20-5 without him) and boast experience up and down the roster. Other than SGA, the Oklahoma City Thunder are a collection of early-20s neophytes still learning to compete as professionals for a team that has overachieved to play sub-.500 ball.

Throw in SGA's late-game heroics—he leads the league in both total clutch points and free-throw attempts—and we have enough information to split hairs in his favor.

LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James may be slowing down, but he's far from stalled out. Averages of 27.1 points, 8.4 rebounds and 6.7 assists in 36.2 minutes per game attest to that. He and Luka Dončić are the only players to exceed those three-category averages so far this season.

The cracks are showing, though. This is the first time since his rookie season that LeBron is posting a true shooting percentage worse than the league average. Then again, it's remarkable that a player in his age-38 season is more valuable for the volume of his contributions than their efficiency.

There will come a day when James slips from All-Star status and has to get in on name recognition alone. We aren't quite there yet, though.

Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings

The central piece to a top-10 offense and one of the league's best rebounders, Domantas Sabonis is in the midst of a terrific first third of the season. He's been stellar enough to give the Sacramento Kings their first All-Star since DeMarcus Cousins in 2017.

Just as he was with the Indiana Pacers, Sabonis is operating as a hub for the Kings. He and Kevin Huerter instantly developed strong chemistry in the handoff and pitchback game, and Sabonis' synergy with De'Aaron Fox in the pick-and-roll gives Sacramento a late-game option that has so far yielded strong results.

With 17.9 points and 12.3 rebounds per game, Sabonis is doing all of the traditional big man stuff the Kings could want, but his 6.6 assists are what show his value. His presence on the floor coincides with gains in effective field-goal percentage and free-throw rate, along with a significant drop in turnover percentage.

Paul George, Los Angeles Clippers

A big market and a history that includes seven previous All-Star nods aren't be enough to earn Paul George this position as a formality—not with Lauri Markkanen (spoiler: the West's toughest snub) such a deserving candidate for this last non-wild card spot.

The real driver of George's case, even with more missed games than almost all of the other players we've mentioned, is his role.

The Los Angeles Clippers have only recently gotten Kawhi Leonard back from a pair of extended absences, and he still isn't playing back-to-back sets. Without him, and because of the other limitations on L.A.'s wing-laden roster, George has alternately had to serve as primary scorer, point guard, defensive stopper and glue guy. Some nights, he does all of the above.

That's a more demanding role than Markkanen plays, and it's just barely enough to offset the Utah Jazz forward's massive advantage in scoring efficiency and minutes logged. For what it's worth, George is averaging more points (23.4), assists (5.0) and steals (1.4) than Markkanen, and his 38.1 percent hit rate from long range isn't exactly something to apologize for.

All things equal, the two-way do-it-all wing gets the narrow edge over Utah's sweet-shooting breakout big man.

Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

A pair of concerning multi-game absences have combined to suppress Damian Lillard's playing time. He's right on the borderline of consideration, but he makes the cut because when healthy, he has looked exactly like the elite, All-NBA offensive fulcrum he's been for most of the last decade.

After a lost 2021-22 season, Dame's numbers are eerily similar to the ones he produced two years ago when he was an All-NBA second-teamer and finished seventh in MVP voting (2020-21 stats in parentheses): 27.7 points (28.8), 7.1 assists (7.5) and 3.7 rebounds (4.2) on a 44.8/39.3/89.8 (45.1/39.1/92.8) shooting split.

He's the same guy! And that guy has been more than good enough to sneak in with one of the final wild-card spots, especially with the Portland Trail Blazers firmly in the mix for a top-six spot in the West.

Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies

Don't take Ja Morant's status as the final West player mentioned the wrong way. This is absolutely a "last but not least" situation.

He or Lillard could catch fire and earn a starting spot, and Morant's team success might give him an edge in any voter's personal tiebreaker. The Memphis Grizzlies sit above Lillard's Blazers, Stephen Curry's Warriors, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's Thunder in the standings.

Anyone who checked out after October might be shocked to see Morant excluded from the starter tier, but he cooled off significantly after his first half-dozen games of the season. He shot 43.0 percent from the field and 30.0 percent from deep in November, and both of those numbers have dipped even lower in December.

Then again, when a player's "worst" month of the season includes averages of 24.0 points, 8.3 assists and 6.9 rebounds for a contender in the West (despite ugly efficiency numbers), he's set the bar pretty high.

Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz

This one hurts the most. Markkanen has busted out with a career season, and he's the main reason why the Utah Jazz have defied the expectation that they'd be among the NBA's most egregious tankers.

Markkanen is averaging a career-high 22.8 points along with 8.2 rebounds while canning a career-best 43.8 percent of his threes. We already laid out how Paul George's role is more demanding than Markkanen's, and the latter's status as a dependent scorer is clear considering 90.1 percent of his threes and 60.4 percent of his twos have been assisted.

De'Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings

December has been rough for De'Aaron Fox, whose true shooting percentage has plummeted from its October (63.9 percent) and November (61.7) levels to a rate well below the league average of 57.5 percent. He's still averaging 23.1 points per game and working well in tandem with Domantas Sabonis. But there just wasn't enough room for two Kings (or seven guards), and Sabonis has been more productive.

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Dec. 21. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.