Viewing Guide for Final Full Weekend of Men's College Basketball Regular Season

Most major-conference teams in men's college basketball still have one more week left in their 2021-22 regular seasons, but for teams in the Missouri Valley, Ohio Valley, West Coast and several other conferences, the next thing on the schedule after this weekend is the conference tournament.

In other words, time is running out on this season, and with each passing day, the games feel just a little more consequential as teams battle for spots and/or seeding in the NCAA tournament.

And in this either final or penultimate weekend of the regular season, we've got four showdowns between AP Top 25 teams, a bunch of massive opportunities for bubble teams to play their way into the field and plenty of spots where teams clinging to an at-large bid need to avoid suffering a disastrous loss.

With more than 160 games scheduled for Saturday or Sunday, keeping up with it all can be next to impossible.

To help you navigate the slate, we've put together this viewing guide, touching on just about every game with possible NCAA tournament implications. Keep this handy for what figures to be a wild Saturday and Sunday of channel flipping and buzzer-beating action.

Headliner: No. 4 Purdue at Michigan State (noon ET on ESPN)

Last Saturday, there were three gigantic matchups between ranked teams that started in the noon-1 p.m. ET window. This Saturday, you're looking at the only early game involving a ranked team.

Yet, it's the unranked team who is more compelling here.

Yes, Purdue is a title contender that is very much still in the running for a No. 1 seed. Lose this game and the Boilermakers might need to win out (including the Big Ten tournament) in order to fulfill that goal for the first time since 1996.

But Michigan State is collapsing into itself like a dying star. The Spartans have lost five of their last six games, including a 21-point loss at Rutgers and Tuesday's 26-point loss at Iowa. They are currently 18-9 and have road games against Michigan and Ohio State on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, so they could be 18-12 and careening toward the bubble by this time next week. I know it's January, February, Izzo and April, but it's getting harder by the day to envision this team turning things around.

Undercard: Florida at Georgia (noon ET on ESPN2)

One week removed from a season-saving home win over Auburn, the Gators are once again on the brink of seeing their bubble pop. They most likely need to win this game, the subsequent road game against Vanderbilt and next Saturday's home game against Kentucky in order to enter the SEC tournament in reasonably good shape for a bid.

Beating "one win in its last 17 games" Georgia doesn't seem like much of a challenge, but the Bulldogs did win home games against Alabama and Memphis and almost upset Auburn earlier this month. Also, Florida is 2-6 in true road games and just barely survived at Missouri. You never know.

Other Games to Monitor

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (noon ET on CBS): The Cowboys are ineligible for the NCAA tournament, and the Sooners have played themselves out of a current spot in the field at 14-14 overall. However, if Oklahoma wins its final three regular-season games against Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Kansas State, it would at least be worthy of at-large consideration again.

Butler at Marquette (1 p.m. ET on Fox): Butler has caused a lot of problems for the Big East's tournament candidates as of late, including a home win over Marquette just two weeks ago. The Bulldogs have no hope for an at-large bid, but they could bump Marquette down into the No. 8/No. 9 seed range by finishing the season sweep.

Vanderbilt at Mississippi State (1 p.m. ET on SEC Network): With a grand total of three wins against the top two Quadrants, Mississippi State is a long shot to dance. But the Bulldogs have solid resume/predictive metrics, and holding serve against Vanderbilt would keep them in a position where a win over Auburn next week would make things very interesting.

Headliner: No. 6 Kentucky at No. 18 Arkansas (2 p.m. ET on CBS)

The first of four massive games on Saturday pits red-hot Arkansas against "just trying to get healthy for March" Kentucky.

The Razorbacks have won 12 of their last 13 games, including recent home games against Auburn and Tennessee. The five losses to likely non-tournament teams from mid-December through mid-January are still weighing down the Hogs' resume, but goodness gracious, would I ever hate to be the No. 3 or No. 2 seed stuck in the region with this current projected No. 6 seed. Win this one, though, and Arkansas likely jumps up to at least a No. 4 seed.

For Kentucky, a No. 1 seed is still on the table, but it would trade that for a healthy Sahvir Wheeler and TyTy Washington Jr. in a heartbeat. Both guards missed last Saturday's game against Alabama as well as Wednesday's game against LSU, and winning at Arkansas without that duo at full strength will be extremely difficult.

Oscar Tshiebwe versus Jaylin Williams will be an intriguing battle in the paint, though. The latter loves to draw charges, and the Wildcats might be up a creek without a paddle if he's able to conjure up a few early whistles against Big O.

Undercard: Iowa State at Kansas State (2 p.m. ET on ESPNU)

Iowa State was creeping back toward the bubble for a while there in the first half of February, but the Cyclones could just about punch their ticket with a win in Manhattan, which would be their fourth consecutive win against the Big 12's bubble. It would only bring them to 7-9 in league play, but a 13-0 nonconference record with several quality wins should more than make up for that.

But at 14-13 with four Quadrant 1 wins and no terrible losses, Kansas State is still clinging to hope. If the Wildcats had to choose just one of their next two games to win, the road game against Texas Tech on Monday would be substantially more valuable. But they could at least stay somewhere in the hunt by winning the remaining home games against Iowa State and Oklahoma.

Other Games to Monitor

No. 20 Texas at West Virginia (2 p.m. ET on ESPN2): After a 12-2 start, West Virginia has lost 12 of its last 13 games and would need a minor miracle to make the NCAA tournament now. But maybe the Mountaineers will be able to catch Texas napping in a trap game? The Longhorns host Baylor on Monday and close out the regular season at Kansas next Saturday. 

North Carolina at North Carolina State (2 p.m. ET on ESPN): Hasn't been much of a rivalry as of late with UNC winning 28 of the past 32 matchups, including a 20-point blowout of the Wolfpack back in January. But given the opportunity to knock the Tar Heels out of the tournament field in its 2021-22 home finale, gotta think N.C. State is going to at least show up for this one.

Virginia Tech at Miami (3 p.m. ET on ACC Network): At this point, Virginia Tech is probably going to need to win the ACC tournament in order to get in, but the Hokies could at least crack open a door to an at-large bid with a win at Miami. Meanwhile, Hurricanes, who are currently projected to go dancing, would find themselves in considerable bubble trouble if they were to lose this one. They are already well outside the NET top 50 and don't need any more question marks.

Seton Hall at Xavier (3:30 p.m. ET on Fox): Seton Hall is going to make the tournament as long as it wins the home game against Georgetown on Wednesday, but Xavier sure is sputtering to the finish line with losses in seven of its last 10 games. The Musketeers have also likely done enough, but if they lose this one as well as (at least) one of the remaining games against St. John's and Georgetown, they might be headed for a double-digit seed.

Headliner: No. 3 Auburn at No. 17 Tennessee (4 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Within the first few hours after the selection committee's top 16 reveal last Saturday, both of these SEC titans suffered humbling losses. Auburn blew a nine-point second-half lead at Florida, and in Tennessee's loss at Arkansas, the Volunteers were held to 48 points or fewer for the first time since December 2019.

Nevertheless, one of these teams is going to surge into March on the heels of a marquee victory in what figures to be a defensive skirmish.

Both Auburn and Tennessee rank top-10 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Tigers do it mostly with Walker Kessler's shot-blocking, but Jabari Smith Jr. is also an outstanding defender, while K.D. Johnson and Wendell Green are both good at forcing turnovers. The Volunteers are even better in the steals department, though, led by Zakai Zeigler and Kennedy Chandler. Any sloppy ball-handling will get devoured in this one.

On the NCAA tournament front, a Tennessee win would likely bump Auburn from the No. 1 seed line while cementing the Volunteers as no worse than a No. 4 seed. An Auburn win wouldn't immediately change much at all, aside from making it that much harder to imagine the Tigers falling off the top line. 

Undercard: No. 12 UCLA at Oregon State (4 p.m. ET on CBS)

With all due respect to Oregon State, it sure does feel like Auburn-Tennessee or bust in this window.

Then again, UCLA has had some serious adventures on the Pac-12 road this season. The Bruins lost at Arizona State in three overtimes, lost at shorthanded USC, lost to Oregon on Thursday and didn't exactly assert their dominance in wins by single digits over Utah, Cal, Colorado and Stanford. If 3-23 Oregon State happens to keep this one close, it's going to feel like a huge red flag for UCLA heading into March.

Other Games to Monitor

Louisiana Tech at North Texas (4 p.m. ET): Since a 2-3 start to the season, North Texas has won 19 of its last 20 games, ascending into the top 40 in four of the six metrics on the NCAA tournament team sheets, including the NET. The Mean Green do not possess a single win over a team projected to dance, but they will be an intriguing bubble team if they win every game left between now and the C-USA championship.

Florida State at Virginia (4 p.m. ET on ESPN2); VCU at Massachusetts (4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+); San Francisco at San Diego (5 p.m. ET); Georgia Tech at Notre Dame (5 p.m. ET on ACCN); No. 19 Murray State at Southeast Missouri State (5 p.m. ET on ESPN+): This window of games is largely made up of bubble teams desperately seeking to avoid back-breaking losses. Murray State will effectively punch its ticket as long as it avoids a bad loss to SEMO. Both Notre Dame and San Francisco are clinging to spots in the projected field and simply cannot afford a terrible loss. VCU and Virginia are both on the outside looking in and must win in order to stay close.

Headliner: No. 13 Wisconsin at Rutgers (6 p.m. ET on BTN)

Can the Scarlet Knights do it again?

It was just two weeks ago that Rutgers went into the Kohl Center and completely shut down Johnny Davis en route to yet another marquee win. And this team has been a whole heck of a lot tougher to beat at the RAC/Jersey's Mike Arena than it has been on the road. If Caleb McConnell and Co. manage to finish off the season sweep of the Badgers, they probably just need to win the season finale at home against Penn State to secure a return to the NCAA tournament.

But this is also a big opportunity for Wisconsin, which was a little bit disrespected with a No. 4 seed in last week's top 16 reveal. The Badgers are 7-3 vs. Quadrant 1 and 14-4 against the top two Quadrants, which is right up there with Baylor, Kansas and Auburn atop the list of most impressive resumes. The disrespect stems from less-than-stellar predictive metrics, though Sunday's 14-point win over Michigan helped. A convincing win at Rutgers (if such a thing is even possible) would be huge in advance of Tuesday's showdown with Purdue.

Undercard: No. 9 Texas Tech at TCU (6 p.m. ET on ESPN2)

There has been a lot of chatter over the past two weeks about Texas Tech as a "sleeper" team that could win it all, but it feels like no one has acknowledged the very real possibility that the Red Raiders could still secure a No. 1 seed in the dance.

They swept Baylor and Texas. They beat Kansas once and took the Jayhawks to double overtime in Lawrence. They are 6-4 in games against the top half of Quadrant 1, and there's a good chance they'll close out the regular season with wins over TCU, Kansas State and Oklahoma State to get to 25-6 overall. If they then proceed to win the Big 12 tournament, I would frankly be stunned if they don't get a No. 1 seed.

But let's not put the cart before the horse, because TCU is a mighty fine team seeking one more quality win to lock up its dance ticket. If the Horned Frogs knock off the Red Raiders, upcoming games against Kansas on both Tuesday and Thursday would be for seeding as opposed to being for a spot in the field.

Other Games to Monitor

No. 7 Duke at Syracuse (6 p.m. ET on ESPN): Outside of the game at North Carolina, the Coach K farewell tour hasn't been anywhere near the twice-weekly annoying spectacle that many feared it would be. But this final trip to Syracuse and Jim Boeheim feels like a big one, especially with the Orange playing relatively well as of late. Will Duke match the 14 three-pointers it made against the 2-3 zone in a 20-point win earlier this season?

Loyola-Chicago at Northern Iowa (6 p.m. ET on ESPNU): Loyola-Chicago has already suffered four MVC losses and simply cannot afford a fifth. The Ramblers are teetering on the projected cut line as it is with little more than a neutral-site victory over San Francisco to their credit. A loss to Northern Iowa would put Loyola-Chicago in a spot where it must win Arch Madness in order to make March Madness.

South Carolina at No. 24 Alabama (6 p.m. ET on SECN): One week after upsetting LSU, can South Carolina deliver another bad loss to one of the SEC's other second-tier teams? If so, it would be Alabama's third Quadrant 3 loss of the season, which conceivably could bump this team with seven Quadrant 1 wins down to the No. 7 seed line.

Louisville at Wake Forest (7 p.m. ET on ACCN): Even at 20-8 overall, Wake Forest is nowhere near assured a spot in the field with its dearth of quality wins. The loss at Clemson on Wednesday night certainly didn't help matters. But if the Demon Deacons close out the regular season with home wins over Louisville and NC State, they might be OK.

Headliner: No. 5 Kansas at No. 10 Baylor (8 p.m. ET on ESPN)

Is there enough room on the top line for both of these Big 12 squads?

Kansas and Baylor were No. 4 and No. 5, respectively, in last week's top 16 reveal, and they are currently the only two teams in the country with at least nine Quadrant 1 wins, each boasting 10. Regardless of what happened in the previous meeting (an 83-59 win by Kansas), the winner of this game will be in excellent position for a No. 1 seed, but the loser could absolutely get there, too, by winning the Big 12 tournament.

It sure does feel like Baylor needs it more, though. The Bears have lost five of their last 13 games, and with the exception of the game against Texas, most of the wins have come against bubble teams—and that Texas game was when they lost Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua to a serious knee injury. Baylor once felt like the favorite to repeat as national champion, and a win over Kansas could put the injury-riddled Bears more seriously back in that mix.

Undercard: No. 1 Gonzaga at No. 23 Saint Mary's (10 p.m. ET on ESPN)

If Gonzaga wins, it should be a No. 1 seed regardless of what happens in the WCC tournament. There are a lot of haters who insist the Zags wouldn't be as successful in a "real" conference, but going undefeated in repetitive blowout fashion against the best version of the WCC that we've ever seen is one heck of an achievement.

But if Saint Mary's pulls off the upset, the Gaels will be in primo position for the best seed in program history. They were a No. 7 seed in both 2012 and 2017 but never better than that. They already might be a No. 6 seed, and this one could reasonably bump them up to a No. 4.

Other Games to Monitor

Creighton at No. 11 Providence (8:30 p.m. ET on FS1): Someone break up the Bluejays! Creighton has won six in a row and already has quality victories over Connecticut (road) and Marquette (home) in February. Could they possibly go into The Dunk and pull off the upset? Expect this one to come down to the wire, since both of these teams only seem to know how to win in nail-biting fashion.

No. 2 Arizona at Colorado (8 p.m. ET on ESPN2); No. 16 USC at Oregon (10 p.m. ET on ESPN2): It's probably too late for Colorado to realistically play its way back into an at-large bid, even if it gets a mammoth win over Arizona. But Oregon could storm back into field by polishing off a 4-0 season against UCLA and USC. It's more likely that the two ranked teams win and all but cement the Pac-12 as a three-bid league.

Pepperdine at BYU (8 p.m. ET on ESPNU); Nevada at Wyoming (8 p.m. ET on CBSSN); Missouri at LSU (8:30 p.m. ET on SECN); Boise State at UNLV (10 p.m. ET on CBSSN); Colorado State at Utah State (10:30 p.m. ET): If BYU, Wyoming, LSU, Boise State and Colorado State all hold serve, nothing to see here. And at the very least, BYU and LSU should do so. Easy to see things getting a little chaotic in the MWC, though, especially in the Boise-UNLV game, given how well the Rebels are playing as of late.

Headliner: No. 15 Illinois at Michigan (2 p.m. ET on CBS)

Juwan Howard or not, Michigan is still fighting for a spot in the NCAA tournament. The Wednesday night win over Rutgers was huge, but the Wolverines still need to win at least one, probably two of their remaining four games, all of which are substantial challenges.

Illinois won the home game against Michigan by 15 back in mid-January, but 7'1" Hunter Dickinson missed that one for the Wolverines, and Kofi Cockburn had a field day in the paint as a result. Should be more of a frontcourt stalemate this time around, and perhaps Michigan will shoot better than 10 percent from three-point range, too.

Undercard: SMU at No. 14 Houston (12:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)

For a day with only 18 games, Sunday is preposterously loaded with pivotal bubble action. And there is perhaps no game bigger than this one in the AAC, in which SMU could just about punch its tournament ticket by finishing off a season sweep of Houston. (If the Mustangs win this one before subsequently losing home games to Cincinnati and Tulane, though, that would be a problem.)

In scoring 85 points against Houston earlier this month, the Mustangs were unconscious from three-point range, hitting 12 of 23 from downtown. It's probably going to take a similar effort from the perimeter to get this road W against what is usually an outstanding defensive team.

But on the Houston side of things, the Cougars could still end up with a No. 3 or No. 4 seed with a strong finish, despite not appearing in last week's top 16 reveal. A home win over bubble-y SMU and a road win over equally bubble-y Memphis on March 6 would help make up for the lack of quality wins thus far.

Other Games to Monitor

No. 21 Connecticut at Georgetown (noon ET on CBS): Georgetown is 0-13 this season against teams in the KenPom top 75, and most of those games were never all that close. Even Creighton and Providence went a combined 4-0 against the Hoyas by relatively convincing margins. Connecticut should do the same.

Wichita State at Memphis (2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN): I'm not sure yet if Memphis must win its regular-season finale at home against Houston in order to remain in good shape for a bid, but a home loss to Wichita State would certainly necessitate a second win over the Cougars to make up for it. The Tigers won at Wichita State by 18 earlier this season.

No. 22 Ohio State at Maryland (4 p.m. ET on CBS): Maryland is 13-15 overall, but the Terrapins will randomly show up in a big way, like when they blew out shorthanded Illinois or almost had big wins over each of Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State. Ohio State better not overlook this one.

Indiana at Minnesota (6 p.m. ET on ESPN2): After opening February with five consecutive losses, Indiana cannot afford another one, certainly not to a .500 team like Minnesota. The Hoosiers are currently projected for a play-in game in the Bracket Matrix, but they could kiss that goodbye if they drop to 17-11 at the hands of the Golden Gophers.