Teams on Upset Alert in Day 2 of the 2022 Men's NCAA Tournament

One of the best parts about March Madness is watching a lower seed upset a higher seed.

On Thursday, we witnessed just that when No. 11 Michigan upset No. 6 Colorado State 75-63 in the first round of the 2022 men's NCAA tournament.

Later in the day, No. 2 Kentucky fell to No. 15 Saint Peter's 85-79 in overtime, and No. 12 New Mexico State knocked off No. 5 UConn 70-63. No. 12 Richmond beat No. 5 Iowa 67-63, too.

So what will Friday bring? A number of good matchups await, so let's run through which teams should be on upset alert for Day 2 of the tournament.

Opponent: No. 10 Loyola-Chicago (25-7)

No. 10 seed success rate: 39.6 percent, per NCAA.com

Line, via DraftKings: pick'em

For the third time in four tries, Loyola-Chicago is in the tournament. The Ramblers, who have a 15-6 record in tournament play, will look to make another magical run after they reached the Final Four in 2018 as a No. 11 seed. 

The Ramblers face an Ohio State team that hasn't exactly impressed in recent weeks. The Buckeyes have lost five out of their last eight games and four out of their last five. OSU had an early exit from the Big Ten tournament last week, too, losing 71-68 to No. 11 Penn State in their first game. 

Meanwhile, Loyola-Chicago has been peaking at the right time. The Ramblers won the Mountain Valley tournament last weekend after a run that included an upset victory over top-seeded Northern Iowa, which was expected to make the Big Dance. Although Loyola-Chicago dropped games to in-conference foes Drake, Bradley and UNI in February, the Ramblers beat all three in the conference tourney. 

The Ramblers rank 23rd in both the KenPom.com and NET rankings, respectively, both higher than Ohio State's No. 31 and No. 26 marks. Ohio State does have one of the nation's best scorers in E.J. Liddell, who averages 19.6 points per game. But the Ramblers rank 17th in scoring defense, so they shouldn't have too much trouble limiting Liddell. 

B/R experts Kerry Miller, David Kenyon and Joel Reuter all picked the Ramblers in this one. How can you not like Sister Jean and Loyola-Chicago on Friday?

Opponent: Iowa State (20-12), No. 11 seed

No. 11 seed success rate: 37.5 percent, per NCAA.com

Line, via DraftKings: LSU (-4)

These teams have similar records but are far apart seeding-wise. The Tigers earned a No. 6 seed after tying for fifth in the SEC with a 9-9 mark. Iowa State's conference record was worse, as the Cyclones went 7-11 in Big 12 play. 

But the biggest reason LSU is on upset alert is the school fired head coach Will Wade just six days ago. That decision came shortly after the NCAA issued a Notice of Allegations to LSU. According to ESPN's Jeff Borzello, Wade's contract stated the school could fire him if he committed a Level 1 or 2 violation, which the NCAA asserted he did when violating recruiting rules.

LSU assistant Kevin Nickelberry is serving as the Tigers' interim head coach. I'm not sure about you, but I think it might be hard for a team to regroup after its coach was fired less than a week before the NCAA tournament.

The Cyclones did lose their last three games to Oklahoma State, Baylor and Texas Tech—the latter pair of those getting Nos. 1 and 3 seeds in the Big Dance. But they had some important wins against tournament-viable teams earlier in the season, including victories vs. Xavier, Memphis and Iowa.

Expect Iowa State guard Izaiah Brockington, who averages 17.2 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, to have a big day as the Cyclones advance.

Opponent: No. 11 Notre Dame (23-10)

No. 11 seed success rate: 37.5 percent, per NCAA.com

Line, via DraftKings: Alabama (-4) 

Despite getting big wins over fellow tournament teams Gonzaga and Houston earlier in the season, the sixth-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide fell flat in SEC play. 

Bama went 9-9 in the conference and had losses to opponents that finished below .500 in the SEC in Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Missouri and Georgia. The Tide lost to each of them on the road as well.  

Notre Dame had an early exit from the ACC tournament, falling to the talented Virginia Tech in its first game. But the Fighting Irish had a thrilling victory in the First Four against Rutgers on Wednesday night, defeating the Scarlet Knights 89-87 in double overtime to advance into the first round. 

For the Fighting Irish to upset the Tide, they likely will need forward Paul Atkinson Jr. to have a big day. The senior had a season-high 26 points in the win over Rutgers, adding six rebounds and two blocks. 

Per Kerry Miller, one of the play-in teams reaches the second round of the tournament quite often. Given that and the Tide's mercurial play, this one is plausible.

Opponent: No. 11 Virginia Tech (23-12) 

No. 11 seed success rate: 37.5 percent, per NCAA.com

Line, via DraftKings: Texas (-1)

It's hard not to pick Virginia Tech in this one. Don't let the Hokies' No. 11 seed fool you, either—this VT team is one of the hottest in the country. After starting out 0-4 in ACC play in January, the Hokies had a monster back end of the season. 

Virginia Tech has rattled off 13 wins in 15 games since late January. Its most impressive feat came last week when it went through Notre Dame, North Carolina and Duke to win the ACC tournament in Brooklyn. The win marked the first ACC tournament championship in VT history. 

Texas, meanwhile, has had quite an opposite latter portion of its season. The Longhorns are riding a three-game losing streak, which has come against Baylor, Kansas and TCU. Texas lost 65-60 to the Horned Frogs in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 tournament last week and finished fourth in the conference during the regular season. 

For the Hokies to keep winning, they have to stay hot behind the three-point line.

Here's more on that from B/R's Miller: "Virginia Tech shot 42.7 percent from the perimeter in winning the ACC tournament, although that's nothing compared to the five-game stretch from late January into early February in which the Hokies went 66-of-124 (53.2 percent) from downtown. When Hunter Cattoor, Storm Murphy and Co. catch fire, good luck."

The Longhorns rank 83rd nationally in three-point field goal defense.

Opponent: No. 12 UAB (27-7)

No. 12 seed success rate: 35.4 percent, per NCAA.com

Line, via DraftKings: Houston (-8.5)

Sure, the oddsmakers seem to think Houston should win this one handily. But UAB has played some great basketball toward the back end of the season. In fact, the Blazers are riding a seven-game winning streak, including the last three over Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tournament to take the Conference USA Tournament. 

The Blazers also have one of the most exciting guards in the tournament in Jordan "Jelly" Walker, who averages 20.4 points and 4.8 assists per game. Walker played at Seton Hall and Tulane before landing at UAB, where he's played his best basketball this season. 

And this from Miller is an interesting stat: UAB ranks top-20 in the nation in three-point percentage, with Walker accounting for 115 of its makes. The Cougars defense has allowed 223 three-pointers this season, which put them at No. 151 in the nation. And in three of the team's five losses, opponents shot better than 40 percent from deep.

Houston has looked good in recent weeks, however. The Cougars won the AAC tournament with a 71-53 victory over Memphis last week. That win avenged the loss Memphis handed Houston on March 6 in Tennessee. 

Picking UAB to upset a very good Houston team might be a bit of a stretch. But the Blazers have played the role of spoiler before—UAB knocked off No. 3 Iowa during the round of 64 in 2015.

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