NCAA Tournament 2022: Mid-February Stock Watch for Men's Bubble Teams

Selection Sunday for the 2022 men's NCAA tournament will be here in just a little over four weeks, but that's still plenty of time for copious amounts of bubble chaos.

If the past two weeks or so are any indication of what to expect as we approach the finish line, buckle up.

Based on each team's five most recent games, we highlighted the programs that have moved the most in each direction on the projected seed list.

Not every team on the bubble will appear here. For example, Florida and San Diego State are smack dab on the projected cut line, but their situations haven't changed drastically in the past two weeks.

Teams in the SEC (Arkansas and Mississippi State) and Mountain West (Wyoming) feature prominently, though. And you best believe we'll discuss BYU's fall from grace.

NET and RES/QUAL metrics are accurate through Thursday and courtesy of BartTorvik.  

Resume: 20-3, NET: 27, RES: 19.0, QUAL: 64.7, No. 9 seed in Bracket Matrix

Five Most Recent Games: W at Air Force, W vs. Colorado State, W vs. Boise State, W at Fresno State, W vs. Utah State

Less than two weeks ago, the case for Wyoming as a projected tournament team was flimsy at best. The Cowboys entered play Jan. 31 with a blowout loss to Arizona, an OK road loss to Boise State, a less-OK neutral-site loss to Stanford and nothing worth mentioning in the win column beyond a two-point victory at Utah State.

Since then, Wyoming has stacked four consecutive wins over teams in the NET top 60, vaulting from the wrong side of the bubble to "just don't screw up too badly and you'll get in."

None of the recent victories were particularly convincing. The Cowboys needed overtime to win home games against Colorado State and Utah State, they only beat Fresno State by a deuce, and a seven-point win over Boise State was a tie game with four minutes remaining. The difference between a 4-0 stretch and an 0-4 stretch wasn't much, and that's largely why the quality metrics aren't really buying what Wyoming is selling.

Nevertheless, the Cowboys are 2-2 vs. Quadrant 1 and 7-3 against the top two quadrants with no Q3/Q4 losses. As long as they can stretch this five-game winning streak to eight games by taking care of business against MWC basement dwellers San Jose State, New Mexico and Air Force in the next eight days, they should be in great shape for a bid.  

Resume: 14-9, NET: 59, RES: 48.5, QUAL: 48.7, 3rd Team Out in Bracket Matrix

Five Most Recent Games: L vs. Oklahoma, L at Arkansas, L at Baylor, L vs. Texas Tech, W vs. Iowa State

A 16-point home win over Iowa State on Tuesday may have stopped the bleeding for West Virginia, or it may have only been as effective as a Hello Kitty Band-Aid on a gaping wound.

Prior to that victory, the Mountaineers had suffered seven consecutive losses, free-falling onto the bubble.

They've remained in the hunt for an at-large bid because none of the losses were bad. In fact, eight of their nine losses have come against the top half of Quadrant 1, and the exception to that (vs. Oklahoma) isn't exactly an eyesore.

And that would be fine if they actually had some quality wins to go along with all those losses.

West Virginia's best victory came at home against a Connecticut team playing without two critical starters (Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin). Its second-best victory was a road win over UAB in which the Mountaineers had to rally from a nine-point deficit in the final eight minutes.

Yet, their metrics are OK, they don't have any bad losses, and opportunities abound in the Big 12.

The next seven games on West Virginia's schedule are all of the Quadrant 1 variety, which is, of course, a double-edged sword, as it will be expected to lose all seven. Even if the 'Eers pull off upsets in two of those games, that will merely put them at 16-14 overall in advance of their finale against visiting TCU and then the Big 12 tournament.

That probably wouldn't be enough, so they have serious work ahead.

I still think West Virginia would just barely belong in the field if the tournament started today. But I would also be surprised if the Mountaineers play their way into the Big Dance, given their remaining gauntlet. 

Resume: 19-5, NET: 32, RES: 27.0, QUAL: 22.0, No. 7 Seed in Bracket Matrix

Five Most Recent Games: W at Ole Miss, W vs. West Virginia, W at Georgia, W vs. Mississippi State, W vs. Auburn

After Tuesday's massive win over Associated Press No. 1 Auburn, Arkansas is no longer on the bubble. That isn't to say the Razorbacks are a lock to have their name called on Selection Sunday, but there's no way you could pick 25 at-large teams today—let alone 36 of them—without including the Hogs.

Prior to beating the Tigers, though, things were dicey for Arkansas.

Yes, the Razorbacks entered that game on an eight-game winning streak and were certainly trending in the right direction, but they were just about done before that stretch. They were 10-5 with all five losses coming against teams that are now on the bubble or not even in the at-large conversation. And their best wins were neutral-site games against Cincinnati and Kansas State—neither of which is all that close to at-large status.

A Jan. 15 road win over LSU gave the Hogs life, and subsequent home wins over Texas A&M, West Virginia and Mississippi State pushed them into the consensus No. 9-seed range in advance of a hellacious eight-game closing stretch that started with Auburn.

The Hogs still have road games against Alabama, Tennessee, Florida and Missouri as well as home games against Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU. Given that slate, things could go sideways. But because of that victory over the Tigers, Arkansas could probably go 1-6 and still sneak into the dance. 

Resume: 14-9, NET: 56, RES: 63.0, QUAL: 39.7, 7th Team Out in Bracket Matrix

Five Most Recent Games: L at Kentucky, L at Texas Tech, W vs. South Carolina, L at Arkansas, L vs. Tennessee

Much like West Virginia, Mississippi State has been in a tailspin packed with "quality losses." All four of those recent L's came against the top half of Quadrant 1.

But unlike West Virginia, the Bulldogs entered that stretch with several questionable missteps already on their ledger. They lost at Ole Miss, at home against Minnesota and on a neutral court against Louisville, all of which are 100th or worse in the NET. And outside of home wins over Alabama and Arkansas, the wins portion of their resume has been lacking.

In other words, Mississippi State needed to capitalize on at least one of those four big opportunities, and it didn't.

The Bulldogs did at least put up one heck of a fight at Kentucky, taking the TyTy Washington Jr.-less Wildcats to overtime. But they got trounced by Texas Tech, and the final margins against Arkansas and Tennessee were eight and nine. Thus, not only did they fail to improve their resume metrics, but they also did themselves no favors in the quality metrics.

They still have three big opportunities before the SEC tournament: at LSU on Saturday, at Alabama on Wednesday and a home game against Auburn on March 2. If they win the other five games and at least one of those three, there will be hope. But for now, they're on the verge of slipping out of the conversation altogether.  

Resume: 17-5, NET: 51, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 55.3, 11th Team Out in Bracket Matrix

Five Most Recent Games: W at Memphis, W at South Florida, W vs. Temple, L at Wichita State, W vs. Houston

While I wouldn't put SMU in the field right now, it's hard to believe the Mustangs are even in the conversation after the way their season started.

SMU opened the year with a 3-3 record featuring a 23-point loss to Oregon, bad losses to Missouri and Loyola Marymount and a trio of mostly meaningless Quadrant 4 wins.

Even one month ago—fresh off a 17-point loss at Cincinnati with nothing close to a quality win on its resume—SMU didn't have a discernible at-large pulse.

But a Quadrant 1 win at Memphis made things interesting for the Mustangs, and rallying from a loss at Wichita State for a crucial home win over Houston put them firmly in the mix.

They still have quite a bit of work to do, though.

Winning the rematch at Houston on Feb. 27 would be ginormous. However, if we assume the Mustangs won't get that one, they will likely need to win every other game to enter the AAC tournament still in the hunt for a bid. That means another win over Memphis, avenging the loss to Cincinnati and avoiding what would be devastating losses to East Carolina, Temple, Tulsa and Tulane*.

Still, it's mid-February and we're talking about SMU. That barely seemed possible three weeks ago.

*There also might still be a previously postponed home game against Wichita State added to the schedule if the two sides can make it fit. But unless they're able to do so just before the start of the AAC tournament March 10, I don't see when that would work. If it does happen, though, SMU better win that game, too, which would be a low Q2 or high Q3 contest.  

Resume: 18-5, NET: 31, RES: 53.5, QUAL: 38.3, No. 10 Seed in Bracket Matrix

Five Most Recent Games: W at Southern Illinois, L at Drake, W vs. Illinois State, W at Missouri State, L at Bradley

Loyola-Chicago picked up arguably its best win of the season less than one week ago with a nine-point victory at Missouri State. But the Ramblers also suffered Quadrant 2 losses to Drake and Bradley, putting them in a precarious position heading into the home stretch.

They're fine for now. I would imagine the vast majority of bracketologists have the Ramblers as a No. 10 plus or minus one seed line, and you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who has them out of the field.

However...

Loyola-Chicago does not have any more opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins, and it doesn't even have another Quadrant 2 game until its regular-season finale at Northern Iowa. Any loss in the next 15 days could prove devastating.

And if we're still talking about this team as an at-large candidate on Selection Sunday, that means at least one more loss in the MVC tournament. In that case, the Ramblers would be at the mercy of other teams on the bubble and conference tournament bid thieves since Oregon, Creighton, San Diego State and basically every team behind them will have had multiple chances at quality wins.

Loyola-Chicago needed to win two out of three road games against Drake, Missouri State and Bradley to feel comfortable about a bid. But the Ramblers didn't, and now they don't.  

Michigan's Resume: 13-9, NET: 30, RES: 46.5, QUAL: 23.7, 6th Team Out in Bracket Matrix

• Five Most Recent Games: L at Michigan State, W vs. Nebraska, L at Purdue, W at Penn State, W vs. Purdue

Virginia's Resume: 15-9, NET: 80, RES: 69.0, QUAL: 64.0, 15th Team Out in Bracket Matrix

• Five Most Recent Games: W vs. Louisville, L at Notre Dame, W vs. Boston College, W vs. Miami, W at Duke

Despite opening the season in the Top 25, Michigan and Virginia entered this week as afterthoughts in the at-large conversation.

Michigan has had solid metrics all season, but save for an 18-point road win over Indiana, its resume featured one missed opportunity after another. Similar story for Virginia, which blew out Providence by 18 on a neutral court but otherwise did nothing good for three months and even picked up bad losses to James Madison, Navy, Clemson and NC State.

But behold the power of beating a team in the mix for a No. 1 seed.

Virginia barely defeated Duke, but that was a huge road win—on the heels of a convincing victory over Miami—and it put the Cavaliers on the list of ACC teams vying for spots in the field.

Michigan, on the other hand, demolished Purdue by 24, further improving the quality metrics that had made it impossible to write off the Wolverines at any point.

Neither team belongs in the field now, but that could change in a big way. Virginia has three Quadrant 1 games (at Virginia Tech, at Miami, vs. Duke) between now and Feb. 23, and seven of Michigan's eight remaining games fall into Quadrant 1.

This is why Loyola-Chicago will still be in trouble if it doesn't get the Valley's auto bid.   

Resume: 18-8, NET: 50, RES: 46.0, QUAL: 59.0, No. 11 Seed in Bracket Matrix

Five Most Recent Games: L at Santa Clara, L at Pacific, L vs. San Francisco, L vs. Gonzaga, W at Loyola Marymount

BYU did finally win a game again Thursday night. That was nice.

Of course, it came against 9-13 Loyola Marymount, BYU trailed by as many as 17 points early in the second half, and it needed a last-second free throw in overtime. But, hey, when you've lost four straight to crash land on the bubble, anything is better than another L.

A loss to Pacific was easily the worst misstep of the bunch. In fact, with the exception of Boise State's 46-39 home loss to CSU Bakersfield, that was probably the worst loss suffered by any team in the mix for a bid. That one took the Cougars from "probably in an 8 vs. 9 game" to "does this team really belong in the field?"

Following that disaster with a 14-point loss to San Francisco and a 33-point loss to visiting Gonzaga certainly didn't help.

But the Cougars do have four Quadrant 1 wins and an 8-7 record against the top two quadrants. As of Friday morning, there were 20 other teams with at least eight Q1/Q2 victories, and all 20 were firmly in the field as No. 7 seeds or better.

BYU is crashing and burning and has slipped a few seed lines. But if you focus on its resume as opposed to just the past five games, the Cougars are still in OK shape. Winning their remaining games against Pepperdine (two) and Loyola Marymount (one) is a must. A road win over Saint Mary's on Feb. 19 would be a huge boost but might not be necessary provided BYU doesn't flame out of the WCC tournament.