Best Bets for UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2
Call it the summer of rematches.
Exactly 21 days after a pay-per-show was headlined by a pair of five-round championship-level return bouts, the UFC will again dip into the runback well for the main event of its August extravaganza at the Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City.
Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman will step back into the Octagon against the man he beat across three rounds when his now-prodigious win streak was in its formative stages.
The "Nigerian Nightmare" will defend his 170-pound laurels against Leon Edwards, who's climbed into the No. 2 contender position on the strength of his own recent surge.
Usman is 15-0 in the UFC and one win away from equaling Anderson Silva's record 16 straight victories with the promotion, while Edwards is also unbeaten since their clash in 2015, winning nine fights alongside a no contest in 10 subsequent appearances.
The paid portion of the Saturday night show consists of five fights and will be carried by ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET. The four-bout early prelim show begins at 6 p.m., and four more bouts on the preliminary card are scheduled to commence at 8 p.m.
The B/R combat and betting teams got together to assess the entire 13-bout show, taking a look at the latest odds posted by DraftKings and considering how the fights are likely to end and where some possibilities for wagering profit might be found.
Kamaru Usman vs. Leon Edwards
If you're seeking highlights of the 2015 meeting between Usman and Edwards, here's a tip: Don't bother searching the "Greatest UFC Fights of All Time" files.
The three-round unanimous decision that Usman scored on a UFC on Fox show in Orlando could best be described as grinding and workmanlike, as the now-champion wore Edwards down with pressure and took the fight to the floor in each of the three rounds.
He earned a 30-27 verdict from one judge and 29-28 nods from the other two.
Edwards has tried to boost his ground game in the 10 bouts since, including a win by rear-naked choke two fights later that remains his lone UFC submission. He averages 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes on the offensive side and is successful in eluding takedown tries at a 70 percent rate on the defensive side.
Of course, Usman is no submission machine either, having scored just one in 15 UFC fights. He has 10 unanimous decisions and four KOs in his other 14 trips to the Octagon and trumps Edwards with three takedowns per 15 minutes and a 100 percent success rate when defending opponent attempts.
The signs seem to point to a methodical, stand-up fight in which the champion may change levels occasionally just to keep things honest. Unfortunately, what it doesn't point to is a lot of potential for a windfall.
Short of forecasting an Edwards upset at +310, the only chance at plus money is at forecasting an end before the midway point of Round 5, so we'll go with that just to root for something other than a win on the scorecards.
The B/R Pick: Total Rounds, Under 4.5 (+125).
Paulo Costa vs. Luke Rockhold
Here's a question: How often will you encounter a pay-per-view co-main event in which one fighter hasn't won in three years and the other is without a triumph in five?
The answer? UFC 278.
The middleweight scrap between failed title challenger Costa and ex-champion Rockhold is a classic crossroads duel under the brightest of possible spotlights.
A powerful Brazilian export, Costa was 13-0 with 11 KOs as he entered a middleweight championship showdown with Israel Adesanya but failed to land anything significant. The "Last Stylebender" pieced him up on the way to a second-round KO in 2020.
Costa's fight following the loss didn't go much better as he was outworked and out-landed over five rounds in his debut at 205-pounds by Marvin Vettori atop a Fight Night show in Las Vegas 13 months later.
He'll look to get back to winning against Rockhold, who stunned Chris Weidman to win middleweight gold at UFC 194 in 2015, but lost the belt to Michael Bisping in his first defense six months later and has fought just three times since and not at all since 2019.
His resume includes six KOs and eight submissions in 16 career wins, which makes him a fair bit more versatile than Costa, who's scored 11 KOs and a submission in his 13 victories.
Rockhold has the predictably superior averages when it comes to takedowns and submissions across 15 minutes, while Costa succeeds on 50 percent of his infrequent takedown tries and defends takedowns with an 80 percent success rate.
Add it all up, and it means Rockhold has to elude heavy blows and get things to the mat in order to pull off what'd be a pretty good-sized upset, considering he's going off at +260. The other intriguing play is a lean toward Costa presumably getting things done early and the fight ending before midway through the second, which is a +105 play.
Costa at -315 is a safety bet, but he's nowhere close to the lock Usman seems to be.
The B/R Pick: Moneyline, Luke Rockhold to Win (+260).
José Aldo vs. Merab Dvalishvili
All of a sudden, Aldo is a thing again.
The all-time featherweight great seemed relegated to the scrap heap midway through 2020, when a pulverizing by Petr Yan gave him his sixth loss in nine fights since late 2015.
But just as his career obituary was being written, he flipped the script.
Aldo has won three straight in the last 25 months since dropping 10 pounds to fight at bantamweight. He handled Pedro Munhoz and Rob Font in 2021 after defeating Marlon Vera—the same Marlon Vera who rearranged Dominick Cruz's face last weekend—by unanimous decision on a Fight Night show in December 2020.
He goes for four on the show's main card against Dvalishvili, a red-hot Georgian who began his UFC run with consecutive losses but has since reeled off seven straight victories and climbed to No. 6 in the division, three slots behind Aldo at No. 3.
The most recent of the seven wins came 11 months ago at UFC 266 against Marlon Moraes, whom he stopped in two rounds. Moraes, who announced his retirement in April, had defeated Aldo one fight before the Yan debacle, winning a three-round split decision.
A prodigious finisher early in his career, Aldo hasn't won inside the distance since 2019 and only twice since 2013. He'll likely stand and strike for as long as he's able, given a 46 percent success rate with his significant strikes while landing 3.61 strikes per minute.
Dvalishvili is just as predictable when it comes to going 15 minutes, having done so in each of the six victories before the Moraes stoppage, but he's much more focused on the ground game with an average of 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes.
It'll likely come down to his 45 percent takedown accuracy vs. Aldo's 90 percent takedown defense. Given that Dvalishvili is four years younger and has far less mileage than Aldo (18 fights to Aldo's 38), it seems difficult to rationalize picking the latter to win.
The B/R Pick: Moneyline, Merab Dvalishvili to Win (-130).
Worth a Shot!
You've made it this far, so you're clearly into the concept of risk vs. reward. And while favorites and moneylines are worthwhile options, a lofty prop or parlay is nice too.
This card isn't hurting for options, even outside the top three bouts.
Here are a few we'd suggest you take a look at:
Marcin Tybura (Moneyline) +340
Opponent Alexander Romanov is a big, nasty Moldovan who's emerged as one of the UFC's hottest prospects at age 31, having won five straight in the Octagon, including four finishes.
That said, Tybura represents a sizable jump in quality from what he's been meeting thus far, and it'll be incumbent upon Romanov to get Tybura out of there with his prodigious mat work before the gas tank runs dry.
Tybura has won five of his last six and arrives ranked two spots higher among the heavyweights, so taking a flier on him protecting that spot isn't ridiculous.
Leonardo Santos (Moneyline) +240
It wasn't long ago that Santos was a guy that people were talking about.
He began his UFC run at 7-0-1 before seeing the momentum fizzle with consecutive inside-the-distance losses to Grant Dawson (KO 3) and Clay Guida (SUB 2). But he gets a fellow journeyman on the prelim card in Jared Gordon, who's been finished in each of his five career losses, including a rear-naked choke to Dawson four months ago.
Santos has nine submission wins and three rear-naked chokes on his resume, which gives us all the reason we need to take a shot.
Amir Albazi vs. Francisco Figueiredo (Under 2.5 Rounds) +115
It's not often you see a ranked contender on the early prelim portion of a pay-per-view show, so it seems a worthwhile novelty to see No. 11 flyweight Albazi do his thing.
The Iraq native is 2-for-2 in his UFC run and 14-1 as a pro, and he's shown a tendency to get things done early, having finished eight fights inside of a round and four more in the second.
The -410 moneyline tag alongside Albazi's name is a non-starter, but risking that he can handle Figueiredo inside of 12.5 minutes is worth a plus-money reward.
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.