Bleacher Report's Expert Super Bowl LVI Picks and Predictions
As we make plans for Super Bowl 56, keep the number four in mind for historical and betting purposes.
For the first time in Super Bowl history, we'll see two No. 4 seeds square off for the Lombardi Trophy. The Cincinnati Bengals had to win their last two contests on the road. The Los Angeles Rams will prepare to suit up at SoFi Stadium for the third time in their run to the title game.
Like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year, Los Angeles is playing the Super Bowl in its home stadium, but quarterback Joe Burrow just helped lead the Bengals to victory after falling behind 21-3 against the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. At 25, he's poised beyond his years and could tie Russell Wilson as the fourth-youngest quarterback to win a Super Bowl.
With a line that indicates we're in store for a close game, Bleacher Report's NFL experts Ian Kenyon, Wes O'Donnell, Connor Rogers, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton will guide you to the cash with their insight on the matchup, predictions and prop bets. They've served their audience well, going 7-1 on consensus picks for the playoffs.
Will the upstart Bengals shock the world and knock off a team that's home and making its second trip to the Super Bowl in four years? Can Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford complete a successful first year in Los Angeles with a title? Let's see what our experts think about Sunday's game.
Lines are from DraftKings as of Thursday, Feb. 10, at 6 p.m. ET. Check DraftKings for the latest odds info. Information on public betting trends courtesy of the Action Network.
The Details
When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Location: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Early line: Los Angeles -4
Early total: 48.5
Referee: Ron Torbert
Bengals injuries to watch: Tight end C.J. Uzomah suffered a sprained MCL during the AFC Championship Game and didn't practice Wednesday, but don't count him out. "I'm not missing the biggest game of my life," he said Monday. Rookie second-rounder Jackson Carman, who shared time with Hakeem Adeniji at right guard in the previous outing, went through a limited practice with a back injury. Wide receiver Stanley Morgan (hamstring), defensive end Cam Sample (groin) and defensive tackle Josh Tupou (knee) went through a full practice to start the week.
Rams injuries to watch: Tight end Tyler Higbee, who sprained his MCL in the NFC Championship Game, didn't practice Wednesday, and head coach Sean McVay doesn't anticipate that to change for the remainder of the week. Backup tackle Joe Noteboom (chest) also missed Wednesday's practice. Running back Cam Akers (shoulder) and wideout Van Jefferson (knee) took part in a limited session to start the week. Linebacker Christian Rozeboom (elbow), cornerback Grant Haley (quadricep), cornerback Jalen Ramsey (shoulder), safety Taylor Rapp (concussion), and left tackle Andrew Whitworth (quadricep) all went through a complete session Wednesday. Rapp has a chance to play for the first time since Week 18.
The ATS Pick
O'Donnell: Rams -4
I've picked against the Bengals each of the past two weeks, but I can't stop now. The Rams were my preseason NFC Super Bowl representative, they're actually here, and they have veteran superstars who may not see this chance again. The Bengals have been a fun story, but I'll lay the points with a more experienced team that was built almost exclusively to win the championship this year.
Kenyon: Bengals +4
I think the Rams win outright, but this should be a close game down to the end. A four-point spread is also big enough that there's some backdoor cover potential if the Rams are up by 11 points or fewer with under five minutes to go. Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should score enough points to keep Cincinnati from getting blown out.
Rogers: Rams -4
The Bengals are easy-to-root-for newcomers, but I think the magic will finally run out. Their interior offensive line won't be able to keep Burrow upright against Aaron Donald. While that ultimately didn't matter against the Tennessee Titans and Jeffery Simmons, the Bengals will now have to counter a Rams offense loaded with weapons. Los Angeles was all in this year; I think it's going to pay off.
Sobleski: Bengals outright (because you're ALL on the Rams to win, as was I originally)
At this juncture, there's no reason to doubt what the Bengals can do on either side of the ball. Burrow will be under duress. That's OK. He has been all season and still finds a way to get the ball in the hands of his talented skill-position performers. More importantly, most seem to be overlooking how well the Bengals defense has played as of late to counter Matthew Stafford and Co.
Davenport: Bengals +4
The Bengals are absolutely capable of pulling off the "upset" and winning this game, especially if the offensive line can afford Burrow any sort of time to throw the ball. But Donald, Leonard Floyd and Von Miller are a tough matchup for that line, and the Bengals have allowed a dozen sacks in three playoff games. Rams win the battle in the trenches and take Super Bowl LVI by a field goal.
Moton: Los Angeles -4
The Bengals haven't scored more than two touchdowns in any of their three previous contests. They'll face a Rams squad that's allowed 18.3 points per game while scoring an average of 28 points in its past three outings. Cincinnati has a phenomenal rookie kicker in Evan McPherson, but his leg cannot compete with the synergy between Stafford and his receivers. Rams score 28-plus points and cover.
Consensus score prediction: Rams 28, Bengals 23
The O/U Pick
O'Donnell: Rams 27, Bengals 17 (Under 48.5)
This is a tough call as both teams have playmakers capable of breaking huge plays and boosting the scoreline in mere seconds. But, as I'm backing a strong Rams defensive performance and the Bengals being gutsy enough to try and keep things close, I have to go under.
Kenyon: Rams 27, Bengals 24 (Over 48.5)
I predicted a final score of 27-24, which would put this over 48.5, and I feel like that's a good bet. There's no way I would feel comfortable betting the under in a game featuring Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp.
Rogers: Rams 28, Bengals 20 (Under 48.5)
This is quietly a lot of points, and I think it's the first half that keeps this one under. Each team will come out slow on offense, limiting chances and feeling out the pace of the game.
Sobleski: Bengals 28, Rams 27 (Over 48.5)
While the defenses are quite talented, a key stop or two—or a turnover here or there—will likely prove the difference in this game. There's no denying the amount of offensive talent found in this contest. Holding either unit under 30 actually represents an excellent outing, particularly for the winning defense.
Davenport: Rams 31, Bengals 28 (Over 48.5)
Call me an optimist, but I expect this game to feature plenty of offensive fireworks. Even if Jalen Ramsey can hold Chase in check, the Bengals have plenty of passing game weapons, and Kupp and Odell Beckham Jr. are a problem for Cincy's cornerbacks. Things may start slow, but by the third quarter, these teams will be trading punches—and touchdowns.
Moton: Rams 28, Bengals 23 (Over 48.5)
The Rams and Bengals have both scored at least 26 points in two of their past three games. For the 2021 regular season, these clubs finished 15th and 17th in defensive scoring, respectively. With so many offensive playmakers in this game (Kupp, Beckham, Mixon, Chase, Higgins and even wideout Tyler Boyd), this total goes over 48.5.
Consensus O/U pick: Over
The MVP Prediction
O'Donnell: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
There are a lot of really, really intriguing options for MVP in this game. Both QBs are obvious choices, and we can't deny the likelihood of the winning QB—seven of the past 10 winners have been QBs—taking the honor. Those other three MVPs in the past 10 years belong to two defensive players and one wide receiver. Receivers Cooper Kupp, Ja'Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr., and even Tee Higgins all have the potential to put up monster games worthy of MVP honors. I'll roll with the game's best defensive player, though, as he puts on a performance for the ages (and a nice haul for bettors).
Kenyon: Matthew Stafford, QB, Rams
Matthew Stafford. The starting QB of the predicted winning team. Need I say more? If the Rams win this game, Stafford will be one of the reasons why. He's the safe choice.
Rogers: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
He's the best player in the Super Bowl, and he has a laughable matchup. While this award typically leans toward quarterbacks, Donald should take over this game. If the Rams go up early and control the pace of the contest, Stafford's numbers might not be very gaudy.
Sobleski: Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals
The game is setting itself up to be the coronation of Burrow as the next great NFL quarterback. His pocket presence, Houdini-like escapability and calmness under pressure portend great things now and for years to come. If the Bengals win, it's because their franchise quarterback overcame the roster's shortcomings, specifically a porous offensive line.
Davenport: Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
Kupp has been unstoppable this season, topping 100 receiving yards a staggering 13 times, including two of three playoff games. He also has four scores in those three playoff contests. Kupp goes over the century mark, catches a long touchdown and caps his historic season with a Super Bowl MVP award.
Moton: Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
Quarterbacks have claimed Super Bowl MVP in three of the past four years, with former New England Patriots wideout Julian Edelman as the only outlier. He caught 10 passes for 141 yards to earn the honor. Kupp can post similar numbers. The 2021 regular-season leader in catches (145), receiving yards (1,947) and touchdown receptions (16), has eclipsed 141 receiving yards in back-to-back games. If Kupp scores a touchdown and goes over 100 yards, he might take home the award.
Consensus MVP pick: None
Best Defensive Performance
O'Donnell: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
Joe Burrow was sacked only once in the Bengals' upset of the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC title game, but Donald and the Rams are a different beast altogether. Donald is capable of taking over a game single-handedly and will not have forgotten the frustration of his first trip to the Super Bowl a few years back. Look for him to exploit Cincy's biggest weaknesses the way the Tennessee Titans did in the divisional round and wreak havoc in the backfield all day.
Kenyon: Leonard Floyd, Edge, Rams
All of the attention will be on Donald and Von Miller (with good reason), but Floyd has had a tremendous season in his own right. His 9.5 sacks and 18 quarterback hits are right on par with what Miller has accomplished (9.5 sacks, 17 QB hits). Floyd played 90 percent of the snaps in the Rams' NFC Championship win but failed to notch a tackle or hit the quarterback. This feels like a great spot for him to come in hungry and have a huge game against a weak Bengals offensive line.
Rogers: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
On paper and in the trophy room (see above), this should be Donald. I quietly think Jalen Ramsey will shine. He may not wipe out Ja'Marr Chase, but he could contain him enough to have a difference-making impact.
Sobleski: D.J. Reader, DT, Bengals
Reader initiates the entire Bengals defense. The massive defensive tackle is a tone-setter who controls the middle of the line of scrimmage, collapses the pocket and allows Cincinnati's talented edge-rushers to be so effective. If the Bengals do win, it will fall on Reader controlling the line of scrimmage against a soft Rams offensive interior.
Davenport: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams
This call is so obvious that it will probably wind up being someone else. But Donald is the NFL's best defensive player and a game-wrecker in every sense, and the Bengals aren't stout on the middle of the offensive line. Burrow had best keep his head on a swivel.
Moton: Von Miller, Edge, Rams
Most people will pen Donald into this spot, but Miller, a former Super Bowl MVP, will rise to the occasion on the biggest stage as the closer. He logged a sack in every game between Week 15 and the divisional round. The San Francisco 49ers snapped his streak, but the 32-year-old turns back the clock for a game-wrecking three-sack performance as the Bengals double- and triple-team Donald in the middle.
Consensus best defensive performance: Aaron Donald
Top Prop Recommendation
O'Donnell: Odell Beckham Jr. over 5.5 receptions (+115)
The Bengals will have to try their damndest to keep Cooper Kupp in check. Nobody's really succeeded in that task this season, but it should give Beckham plenty of opportunities to exploit his matchups. Beckham has seen more targets with each passing playoff week, has 15 catches in his last two games and will deliver again on the grandest stage of them all.
Kenyon: Joe Burrow over 24.5 completions (-105)
If the Bengals are going to win, they have to throw the ball. A lot. And with the Rams' defensive front, Burrow won't have a ton of time to throw it. That could mean a lot of short completions.
Rogers: Successful two-point conversion (+250)
These teams have had a lot of time to work on two-point-play packages and neither is afraid to be aggressive when it's all on the line.
Sobleski: Joe Mixon over 26.5 yards receiving (-110)
This seems like easy money considering two factors. First, Mixon averaged five receptions and 43 yards per game over his last five contests. In fact, he's topped the prop in every one of those games. Second, the Bengals will likely look to get the ball out of Burrow's hand quickly, particularly at the start of the game, to slow the Rams pass rush.
Davenport: Either Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford to throw a 50-yard TD pass (+200)
According to Fantasy Pros, no quarterbacks in the NFL attempted more 50-yard passes in 2021 than Burrow and Stafford. Given all the receiving talent that will be on the field Sunday at SoFi Stadium, it's not that hard to imagine one getting behind the defense for a long score.
Moton: Evan McPherson makes a 50-plus-yard field goal (+140)
Through the 2021 regular season, McPherson led the league in 50-plus-yard field goals. He's split the uprights from that range three times in the last two games. Also, the rookie kicker has made all 12 of his field-goal attempts over the past three contests. This is a good wager for bettors who think points could come at a premium.
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