How Teams Outside of the Top Four Can Get into the College Football Playoff
The College Football Playoff released its first rankings of the 2022 season Tuesday evening. Although there is still a lot of football left, the committee gave us a good idea of where certain teams stand through nine weeks.
Here's a look at the Top 12:
- Tennessee
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Clemson
- Michigan
- Alabama
- TCU
- Oregon
- USC
- LSU
- Ole Miss
- UCLA
It's not unusual for these initial rankings to look drastically different after Championship Saturday since there are still so many games left. And since we have several undefeated or one-loss teams remaining, a number of squads still have a shot to make it in. Per usual, the committee looks at things like strength of schedule, quality wins and head-to-head matchups when evaluating teams.
Tennessee, Ohio State, Georgia and Clemson. would obviously make it in if the season ended Tuesday. But what about the teams outside of the Top Four? What do the likes of Michigan, Alabama, TCU and Oregon have to do to make it into the final four slots?
North Carolina Has to Run the Table
No. 17 North Carolina (7-1)
Remaining games: at Virginia, at Wake Forest, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. NC State
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 0.0 percent
Talk about slim odds at making the playoff, as the FPI thinks the Tar Heels have a 0 percent chance. UNC lost earlier in the season to Notre Dame, which obviously hurts the Tar Heels' resume.
But if they win their remaining games—including a potential ACC championship matchup against Clemson—FiveThirtyEight's projection system gives the Heels a 61 percent chance at the Top Four.
However, the back end of UNC's schedule looks particularly tough, including games against two ranked opponents. The Tar Heels have to go on the road to face No. 21 Wake Forest on Nov. 12 and close the season against No. 22 NC State on Nov. 25. If North Carolina loses again, it would be out of the playoff race entirely.
But a one-loss UNC would make the ACC Championship look a lot more intriguing. Clemson can clinch the Atlantic Division with a win over Louisville or Miami, and if Syracuse falls to Pitt this weekend, the Tigers would also clinch.
UNC dropping either an undefeated or a one-loss Clemson in the ACC title game might be enough to vault the Tar Heels into the playoff come December.
Illinois Needs a Signature Win
No. 16 Illinois (7-1)
Games remaining: vs. Michigan State, vs. Purdue, at Michigan, at Northwestern
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 0.1 percent
The Fighting Illini lost in Week 2 to Indiana but have gone unbeaten since. Still, Illinois hasn't toppled a ranked team (either CFP or AP), so it's not too surprising the Fighting Illini aren't higher than No. 16.
Here's what CFP Chairman Boo Corrigan had to say regarding the team (h/t Saturday Tradition):
"Top-scoring defense in the country, really competitive, three wins against teams above .500. That being said, we didn’t know if there was necessarily a signature win associated with them, but a really good football team, a really tough football team."
Illinois has a great shot at getting a signature win on Nov. 19, when it goes on the road to face a Michigan team that will likely still be undefeated. If Illinois upsets Michigan and then beats whoever represents the Big Ten East in Indianapolis, it would be hard to keep Illinois out.
That is a big if, though, and that's assuming Illinois doesn't lose again before the Big Ten Championship Game. The Fighting Illini have won the last two against Michigan State, in 2016 and 2019, and are a 17-point favorite against a 3-5 MSU, per DraftKings.
Beating a 5-3 Purdue and its No. 13 passing offense on Nov. 12 might be more of a challenge. The Boilermakers have won the last two straight against Illinois, both of which came in the last two seasons.
Still, Illinois' top-ranked defense in points and yards allowed gives the Fighting Illini a chance against anyone. Since the loss to Indiana, the Illini defense has given up just 42 points over six games.
Ole Miss and LSU Would Have to Overcome Some Playoff Precedents
No. 10 LSU (6-2)
Games remaining: vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, vs. UAB, at Texas A&M
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 1.1 percent
No. 11 Ole Miss (8-1)
Games remaining: vs. Alabama, at Arkansas, vs. Mississippi State
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 1.7 percent
In the SEC West, Ole Miss and LSU can both create chaos inside the division.
The Rebels' playoff chances seem pretty slim. Thanks to the loss to LSU, Ole Miss' hopes to get to Atlanta and the SEC title game took a major hit. Even if Ole Miss were to upset Alabama, if the Tide beat LSU, Bama would still win the West.
The same goes for if LSU beats Alabama. The Tigers' head-to-head win over Ole Miss would give LSU the nod to make it into Atlanta.
But Ole Miss playing the role of spoiler for Alabama would be a successful season for Lane Kiffin in year three. If Ole Miss finishes 11-1 with a victory over Alabama, there would likely have to be multiple two-loss conference champions for a playoff scenario to even emerge for Ole Miss.
LSU's path is a bit more clear. The Tigers can upset Alabama and win its remaining games against Arkansas and Mississippi State to clinch the West. If LSU wins the SEC Championship Game, the committee would be in a tough position. No, a two-loss conference champion has ever made the playoff. But an SEC Champion has never not made the playoff.
Three Pac-12 teams remain in the hunt—just barely
Oregon, USC and UCLA are all still in the hunt, all of them with one loss already. Here's a look at where they stand:
No. 8 Oregon (7-1)
Remaining games: at Colorado, vs. Washington, vs. Utah, at Oregon State
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 7.8 percent
No. 9 USC (7-1)
Remaining games: vs. Cal, vs. Colorado, at UCLA, vs. Notre Dame
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 6.9 percent
No. 12 UCLA (7-1)
Remaining games: at Arizona State, vs. Arizona, vs. USC, at Cal
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 0.7 percent
Out of these three teams, it looks like Oregon might be the conference's best chance to get a team in. The Ducks are unbeaten in Pac-12 play, with their only loss coming Week 1 against Georgia, though it was a 49-3 beatdown. Oregon's most impressive win came on Oct. 22 over then-No. 9 UCLA, which entered undefeated. Here's what CFP chairman Boo Corrigan said regarding the committee's view of Oregon.
“The win over UCLA has gone a long way,” Corrigan said on a teleconference via Saturday Out West. “They’ve scored at least 41 points since that game. Bo Nix has had a great season. … As we looked at it, obviously that initial game, but what they’ve been able to do since that time has really turned the committee’s head.”
If Oregon wins out, it would be hard to keep it out, even with the Week 1 loss to Georgia. If the Dawgs win the SEC to make it to the playoff, the Ducks could have a chance to get some revenge, if the committee awarded the two with a semifinal rematch.
If No. 9 USC or No. 12 UCLA win out, one of them could end up with a bid. The Trojans lost to a two-loss Utah team, and the Bruins lost to Oregon. For either of them to make it in, they would have to win out, including beating Oregon in the Pac-12 title game. Both teams would likely need to have multiple two-loss conference champions for this to happen, which seems unlikely.
TCU's Best Bet Is to Remain Unbeaten
7. TCU (8-0)
Remaining games: vs. Texas Tech, at Texas, at Baylor, vs. Iowa State
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 12.4 percent
ESPN's FPI doesn't have much confidence in TCU remaining undefeated come Selection Sunday.
The biggest tests for TCU are road games at Texas and Baylor. DraftKings has TCU as a six-point underdog against the Longhorns.
If TCU were to lose to Texas, the Horned Frogs couldn't afford to drop another game. So that would mean beating Baylor and Iowa State, and then whoever TCU would meet in the Big 12 Championship Game, which as a today would be 6-2 Kansas State. If TCU beat Texas and lost to Baylor or Iowa State, getting a blowout victory in the Big 12 title game might be the Horned Frogs' only shot.
That gets dicier if a one-loss Oregon team is a Pac-12 champion, with a Week 1 loss to Georgia, a playoff team.
A one-loss Big 12 champion TCU team might not get in, especially if Alabama wins in the SECCG. Here's what Corrigan said regarding putting Alabama ahead of unbeaten TCU in the first CFP rankings.
"We're looking for a balanced team, offense and defense," Corrigan said as transcribed by The Athletic. "They've gotten behind in games."
Corrigan is likely referring to TCU's 89th-ranked defense and its come-from-behind victories against Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
So the key for TCU is to remain undefeated and win the Big 12 title game. Losing in the Big 12 title game would be enough to knock the Horned Frogs out, even if it's their first loss.
Alabama Needs to Do What It Did Last Year
No. 6 Alabama (7-1)
Remaining games: at LSU, at Ole Miss, vs. Austin Peay, vs. Auburn
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 49.8 percent
Alabama already has the loss to Tennessee on its resume, so the Crimson Tide can't afford to lose again this season. For Bama, the path to the playoff is simple—don't lose another game.
That might be easier said than done, even for a Nick Saban-coached team. Coming up this week, Alabama will go on the road to face LSU, which is 6-2. The Tigers lost in Week 1 to FSU and fell 40-13 to Tennessee in Week 6. But LSU handed Ole Miss its first loss of the season, winning 45-20. Alabama is a 13.5-point favorite to win Saturday. The Tide haven't lost to the Tigers in Baton Rouge since 2010.
The following week, Alabama has to go on the road and play Ole Miss. The Rebels are 0-2 against Alabama since Kiffin's arrival in Oxford. But in 2020, the last time Alabama played at Ole Miss, the Tide survived a 63-48 thriller. Beating Ole Miss and LSU would clinch a trip to Atlanta for the SECCG.
Alabama should have no problems against its remaining two regular-season opponents, Austin Peay and Auburn. The Iron Bowl being in Tuscaloosa tips that game even further toward the Tide.
Alabama would then have to win the SEC Championship Game to make it into the playoff. It looks like it will either be Tennessee or Georgia out of the East. Alabama might prefer to play the Volunteers, since it has faced them before, but either opponent would be challenging. The Tide rebounded from one regular-season loss to make it into the playoff by winning in Atlanta last season. Can they do it again?
Michigan Has a Couple Different Paths to the Playoff
No. 5 Michigan (8-0)
Remaining games: at Rutgers, vs. Nebraska, vs. Illinois, at Ohio State
ESPN FPI chance to make the playoff: 47.9 percent
Michigan has been quite impressive. The Wolverines are undefeated, with their most impressive win coming over then-No. 10 Penn State. Michigan won handily 41-17.
Jim Harbaugh's team will face its biggest tests of the season in the last two weeks. On Nov. 19, Michigan will play No. 16 Illinois at home. The Fighting Illini are 7-1 on the season and boast the nation's top-ranked defense. If Michigan were to lose to Illinois, that wouldn't knock the Wolverines out completely, since it would be their first loss, and they'd still control their own destiny in the East.
If Michigan loses to Illinois, it would have to beat Ohio State the week after to make it in. Michigan defeated Ohio State last season in Ann Arbor, a win that snapped an eight-game losing streak to the Buckeyes. This year, the game is in Columbus. The last time Michigan won there in this rivalry came in 2000. ESPN's FPI gives Michigan a 25.4 percent chance to win the Big Ten East.
But if Michigan were to beat Illinois and lose a close game to Ohio State to miss out on the Big Ten Championship, there would still be a shot for Michigan to make it in. In 2016, an 11-1 Ohio State team made the playoff as a No. 3 seed, despite not even playing in the Big Ten title game. This scenario could repeat itself again this season for Michigan. But the Wolverines would likely need a couple of Power Five champions with two losses for this to happen.