Top Prop Bets, Best Long Shots and Super Bowl LVI Locks

Super Bowl LVI between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals is just around the corner, and with it comes myriad exciting prop bets.

Sportsbooks are offering betting options from the opening coin flip to the postgame Gatorade bath and all the action in between.

With hundreds of props on the board, it can be tough to untangle which provide the most value.

Some props offer very little due to the vigorish, or the cut a bookmaker takes for facilitating bets.

The vig gives bets like the coin toss (-105 odds per side) a negative expected value. Even with many shops such as DraftKings offering reduced juice, bettors still need to risk $1.05 to win $1—implying 51.2 percent probability—on a 50-50 proposition.

Props can be profitable, however, with at least a handful offering strong chances to cash tickets for shrewd backers.

With that in mind, here are a few best bets and long shots to consider when making your 2022 Super Bowl prop picks.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), or call or text the TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789 (TN).

21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN only. In partnership with Meadows Racetrack & Casino. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

Rookie kicker Evan "Shooter" McPherson has not only quickly become a fan favorite in Cincinnati, but he's also quite popular at the betting window.

Craig Mucklow, vice president of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook, said that this is the first time he's seen a team's kicker rank among the most popular Super Bowl props (via PFT's Michael David Smith):

"In 20-odd years of doing this, I don't think I've ever seen a kicker prop in the top 10 of props. At the moment, McPherson over total field goals made is the seventh-most popular prop by tickets. He's been money, and seeing a kicker in the top 10 is fabulous because it just shows how much interest he's garnered."

Mucklow said the over side of this prop is responsible for 93 percent of the handle, which could end up costing the book dearly.

As part of a first year in which he nailed 28 of 33 field-goal attempts, McPherson connected on two or more in 12 of his 19 games, a 63.2 percent occurrence.

One has to go back to Dec. 5 to find the last time McPherson made only one field goal in a game.

Based on the -115 odds, the implied probability that this prop will go over is 53.5 percent.

The fifth-round pick has raised his game in the playoffs, blasting all 12 of his kicks through the uprights.

It's a good bet that McPherson—who has knocked home four field goals in each playoff game and set an NFL record with a dozen 50-plus-yarders this year—will add at least two more Sunday.

The Bengals converted touchdowns on only 59.6 percent of their red-zone trips this season, ranking 16th in that category.

The Rams aren't particularly strong at stopping field-goal tries either, ranking 20th in attempts and 21st in makes by the opposition. They allowed 2.0 tries and 1.8 makes per game during the regular season.

While it remains to be seen if McPherson will hit a third walk-off kick—a prop you can bet at +500—he should easily add to his legend with a pair of Super Bowl field goals.

Rams tight end Tyler Higbee has been unable to practice, potentially forcing Los Angeles to go without a key offensive weapon.

While Higbee is questionable after suffering a sprained MCL in the NFC Championship Game, head coach Sean McVay said (per ESPN's Brady Henderson) that he doesn't believe the veteran tight end will get any reps in before Sunday's showdown.

Ben Skowronek is a top candidate to soak up a chunk of Higbee's snaps if the starter can't go. At +800, the big-bodied wideout is a good bet to cash a long shot scoring ticket.

The little-used rookie mostly contributed on special teams this year, but he did haul in 11 of his 20 targets for 133 yards in 14 games, playing 178 offensive snaps and making one start.

Skowronek, listed at 6'3", 224 pounds, got extended action in the conference title tilt after Higbee exited in the first half. He finished with 21 offensive snaps, far more than the 13 he played over the first two rounds of the playoffs.

While Skowronek didn't notch any receptions against the San Francisco 49ers, he did get one look from quarterback Matthew Stafford that would have went for a touchdown had the receiver not dropped the pass.

Though it was a disappointing misstep, Stafford will surely go right back to Skowronek if he gets open like that again.

The quarterback had the back of the Notre Dame product—who had three drops this year—and his fellow receivers when they had a poor performance during the regular season (per USA Today's Cameron DaSilva):

"Sometimes those things happen. I've got a ton of trust in all those guys. I see those guys, the way they work, the way they go about their business week in and week out. I can definitely do a better job of giving them the ball in a better spot so they don't have to work as hard to make those catches, so I'll make sure I'm doing my part to try and be better for those guys and give them better opportunities."

Unexpected breakout performances by unheralded wideouts have become a part of Super Bowl lore.

Jordy Nelson was an afterthought on the Green Bay Packers when he exploded for a career-best 140 yards and a touchdown on nine receptions in Super Bowl XLV.

David Tyree became a hero for the New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII, helping to take down the undefeated New England Patriots with his famous "helmet catch."

Little-used Seattle Seahawks wideout Chris Matthews notched his first NFL touchdown in a near-win over New England seven years later, and Skowronek could replicate that feat this weekend.

Lock this bet in before Higbee is declared out, as Skowronek's odds of scoring could increase.

The Super Bowl MVP is often a quarterback, but there is little value in taking Joe Burrow or Matthew Stafford.

Stafford is the odds-on favorite at +100, while Burrow has the second-best chances at +225. Should either win, they would become the third straight and 32nd signal-caller to be crowned the game's MVP.

It's not impossible for other positions to win, however, as wide receivers in particular have made serious headway since the 2005 Super Bowl.

Four wideouts have been named MVP since Deion Branch earned the honor in Super Bowl XXXIX.

Hines Ward accomplished the feat the following year, Santonio Holmes was crowned in Super Bowl XLIII, and Julian Edelman was the most recent to win it for his showing in Super Bowl LIII.

Those four players averaged 8.8 catches, 132.0 yards and 0.5 touchdowns with the Lombardi Trophy on the line.

While Rams star Cooper Kupp has been the most productive wideout in the league this year, teammate Odell Beckham Jr. has a shot to usurp him in Super Bowl LVI.

Beckham has been a major asset during Los Angeles' postseason run, improving his production in each of the team's three playoff games.

The 29-year-old had four catches for 54 yards and a score in the Wild Card Round, chipped in six receptions for 69 yards in the divisional round and went off for 113 yards on nine catches in the NFC Championship Game.

Beckham's targets also increased in each of those contests, going from four to eight to a season-high 11 against the 49ers last week.

It's well within reason to believe Beckham will continue trending upward against a suspect Cincinnati secondary that ranked 26th against the pass this year.

He would likely benefit from the potential absence of Tyler Higbee, who drew 5.7 targets per game in 2021.

Beckham could have a 10-reception, 125-yard, one-touchdown performance, which would put him in the thick of the MVP conversation should the Rams win.

Given Los Angeles is favored by 4.5 points and playing at home, it is a strong bet to emerge victorious. For those looking to place an MVP wager with a chance of paying big dividends, Beckham is the bet to make.

Cooper Kupp became just the fourth wide receiver since the merger to secure a Triple Crown this year. He'll be a popular prop play in Super Bowl LVI because of his heavy usage in Los Angeles' offensive attack.

While there is a slew of options related to Kupp's performance, the one that sticks out as the most likely to hit is the over on his longest reception, now set at 29.5 yards.

Had this prop been offered in all 20 of Los Angeles' games leading up to the Super Bowl, over bettors would have cashed tickets 65 percent of the time (13 occurrences).

With -110 odds, the implied probability of this prop going over is 52.4 percent. (DraftKings has moved this prop from -140, or 58.3 percent implied probability, for over 28.5 yards.)

Given the superstar wideout led the league in targets—he averaged 11.2 per game in the regular season and is still getting 10.7 looks per game against improved competition in the playoffs—there should be ample opportunity for Kupp to explode for a long gain.

No receiver has made more happen after snaring the ball either, with 846 of Kupp's 1,947 regular-season yards and 168 of his 386 postseason yards coming after the catch.

The Bengals pass defense has been suspect, allowing the seventh-most yards this year, with more of those coming through the air than any other squad.

Even if Kupp doesn't run many routes over the top—partly because of the emergence of deep threat Odell Beckham Jr. during the playoffs—the fifth-year veteran could turn a short reception into a 30-yard catch-and-run against this defense.

Cincinnati has struggled to contain players after the catch as well, allowing 2,319 yards in the regular season, the eighth-worst mark in football.