UFC 271: Israel Adesanya vs. Robert Whittaker 2: A Head-to-Toe Breakdown

A long-awaited rematch between Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker will finally go down at UFC 271 this Saturday in Houston, Texas. 

The pair first met at UFC 243 in October 2019. Australia's Whittaker entered the cage as the undisputed middleweight champion, while his Kiwi rival, Adesanya, held the division's interim title. It was viewed as the biggest fight in the history of Oceanic mixed martial arts, and really, one of the very best fights possible at the time. 

In the end, Adesanya won that fight decisively, sparking Whittaker with a second-round left hook. It wasn't a fight that begged for an immediate rematch, but over time, Whittaker has made an undeniable claim to a do-over. The well-rounded former champ has fought three times since losing the title to Adesanya, picking up a trio of impressive decision wins over top-flight middleweights in Darren Till, Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum. He's frankly never looked better.

Adesanya, meanwhile, has shown the faintest flickers of vulnerability. After 20 straight wins to start his MMA career, the Nigerian-born striker was finally defeated in March of last year, losing a decision to Jan Blachowicz in a failed bid to claim the UFC light heavyweight title. He got back on track in his next fight, defeating Marvin Vettori by decision to defend his middleweight title, but he certainly had a tough time doing it. 

The point here is that, just like Adesanya and Whittaker's first fight at UFC 243, their second at UFC 271 stands out as one of the best fights that can be made right now—albeit for different reasons. And despite the emphatic nature of their first bout, victory in the rematch seems totally up for grabs.

Keep scrolling to see how these two decorated middleweights match up on paper, and our best prediction for the fight.

We don't need to spend a lot of time on this. 

Whittaker is an awesome striker. He fights out of an unusual side-on stance. He manages range very well and moves beautifully. He packs serious power. He's good. Good enough that you'd have to give him a striking edge against most other middleweights. But not Adesanya. 

Adesanya might be the most successful striker in MMA right now. Before he arrived in the UFC, the Nigerian-born New Zealander enjoyed an incredibly successful kickboxing career, tallying 75 wins and just five losses. He also went 5-1 as a professional boxer. His striking background has translated very well into MMA. He's built a 21-1 record in in the sport, which includes Octagon wins over the likes of Marvin Vettori (twice), Brad Tavares, Derek Brunson, Anderson Silva, Kelvin Gastelum, Whittaker, Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa—all of whom he beat with his striking skill. He didn't attempt a takedown against any of them. He simply didn't need to.

You could identify Adesanya as a better striker than Whittaker without even knowing the outcome of their first fight. He's just that good. That doesn't mean Whittaker can't catch him, but it's a long shot.

Edge: Adesanya 

Whittaker may be outmatched on the feet against Adesanya, but that doesn't mean he's without advantages. He will be the much better wrestler in the Octagon at UFC 271. 

While Whittaker doesn't come from a wrestling background, he's managed to become one of the best wrestlers in his division. He's looked particularly good in this department recently, notably completing four takedowns in his unanimous decision win over Kelvin Gastelum, who comes from a wrestling background.

More proof of Whittaker's wrestling ability can be found in his efforts outside the Octagon. He went undefeated in the 2015 Australia Cup freestyle wrestling tournament. He won gold in the 2017 Australian National Wrestling Championship. He even qualified to represent the country as a wrestler in the Commonwealth Games, though the UFC ultimately forbade him from competing, fearing he'd sustain an injury.

Whittaker's wrestling skill figures to be particularly relevant against Adesanya. For all his striking skill, the middleweight champion has shown real vulnerability to takedowns of late. In his March 2020 decision loss to then-light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz, he was taken down three times. Blachowicz is not known for his wrestling, so it was widely theorized that his takedowns came down, in large part, to sheer size and strength. Yet in Adesanya's next fight, a unanimous decision win over Marvin Vettori back at middleweight, he was taken down four times. In that fight, he couldn't blame a weight or strength disadvantage—only porous takedown defense.

That could be a problem in his upcoming rematch with Whittaker.

Edge: Whittaker

Neither Adesanya nor Whittaker is known for their submissions. However, it's hard not to give Whittaker the edge in this phase of the game, too.

The Australian is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Alex Prates, and while he's won the majority of his MMA fights by knockout or decision, he has used his submissions to win on five occasions. He's shown a particular predilection for arm bars and rear-naked chokes, though he recently told MMA journalist Alex Behunin that his favorite submission to practice is the head-and-arm choke, so keep an eye out for that, too.

Adesanya, on the other hand, hasn't given us many looks at his submission game. He hasn't needed to. However, we can make some fair assumptions about his jiu-jitsu based on the information available.

He's a purple belt under Andre Galvao. That's impressive, but it's also not a black belt or even a brown belt. He's never won a fight by submission. Maybe he's hiding one of the most lethal submission arsenals in the world, but it's far more likely those weapons simply feel a bit uncomfortable in his hands. He's a striker, and that's fine.

Edge: Whittaker

Adesanya's X-Factor: Don't Let the Fight Become a Wrestling Match

Fans watched Adesanya surrender seven takedowns in his past two fights, and you can bet Whittaker saw that, too. The former champ will most likely be looking to wrestle in this rematch, and Adesanya can't let him. That doesn't just mean stopping takedowns. It means making Whittaker hesitant to shoot at all by managing distance and threatening with knees and uppercuts. It also means getting back to his feet if he's taken down, because he can't afford to give up rounds if the knockout doesn't come. It's a tall order, but it could be crucial to his success. 

Whittaker's X-Factor: Forget the First Fight  

Whittaker doesn't seem like the kind of guy who dwells on the past, but he got beat up pretty badly the first time he shared the cage with Adesanya, and that's going to be hard to forget about at UFC 271. If he fixates on avoiding a similar fate in their rematch, it's going to make him under-confident and gun shy, and all the more vulnerable to Adesanya's ridiculously slick striking attack. The former champ needs to have his head in the game this Saturday in Houston. The current game—not the game we watched in 2019.

Adesanya should still be able to out-fight Whittaker on the feet, but heading into the rematch, his victory seems to hinge on his ability to stop takedowns. He couldn't stop enough of them to beat Blachowicz, and barely stopped enough of them to beat Vettori. On paper, Whittaker is a better wrestler than either of those guys.

As decisively as Whittaker was beaten by Adesanya in their first fight, the apparent disparity in their wrestling skill is hard to ignore in 2022. So long as the former champion is careful on the feet, he should be able to find the reigning king's hips with enough frequency to sway the judges.

That's right, we're calling for an upset. Just think how big the trilogy will be, especially if it's in Australia or New Zealand.

Prediction: Robert Whittaker by unanimous decision

All stats in this article are via UFC Stats, UFC Record Book and Tapology unless otherwise indicated.