NFL MVP 2022: Award Candidates, Odds and Predictions

The 2021 NFL season and its aftermath have been full of excitement and surprises. We've seen the Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams reach Super Bowl LVI, witnessed players like Cooper Kupp and T.J. Watt have historically great years and enjoyed the NFL's first 18-week regular season.

Since the season ended, we've also seen both Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady retire.

Thursday night (for the first time ever on a Thursday), the NFL will celebrate its memorable campaign with the NFL Honors. The annual awards show will highlight some of the top achievements and moments of the 2021-22 campaign.

The night's biggest award, though, will be NFL MVP. Given to the league's most valuable player during the regular season, MVP is an honor that few have obtained and even fewer have won multiple times. This year, two three-time winners—Brady and Aaron Rodgers—are up for the award, among others.

Here, you'll find a look at the top MVP candidates, the latest odds, according to Vegas Insider, and our prediction for how things will unfold.

The 2022 NFL Honors will broadcast live at 9 p.m. ET and will air on ABC and NFL Network with streaming on ESPN+.

Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers 1-4

Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-1

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals 10-1

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts 16-1

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams 20-1

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills 50-1

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs 50-1

The NFL MVP award has largely become a "best quarterback" award in recent years. Running back Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to be named MVP, and that happened following the 2012 season.

So while cases can be made for Kupp and Jonathan Taylor—Taylor's case would be more compelling had the Indianapolis Colts actually made the postseason—we're likely to see a signal-caller win the award once again.

Brady, Rodgers and Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow are all deserving of the award.

Rodgers helped the Green Bay Packers obtain the NFC's No. 1 seed while having another productive and efficient season. Rodgers finished the year with 4,115 yards, 37 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He also led the league with a 111.9 passer rating.

While Brady wasn't quite as efficient as Rodgers, he was even more prolific statistically—and one could argue that Brady carried the Tampa Bay Buccaneers more than Rodgers carried the Packers. Tampa was hampered by injuries throughout the season and finished without receivers Chris Godwin (torn ACL) and Antonio Brown (released).

Brady still led the league with 485 completions, 5,316 passing yards and 43 touchdown passes. He did, however, throw eight more interceptions than Rodgers.

Burrow was also good at racking up the stats, though he struggled at times with interceptions. He passed for 4,611 yards with 34 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Burrow also led the league in completion percentage (70.4) and yards per attempt (8.9). 

Perhaps most importantly, Burrow helped the Bengals win the AFC North a year after Cincinnati went just 4-11-1.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen also had strong seasons, though neither was particularly great for the full 18 weeks.

Mahomes had 10 interceptions through his first 10 games, while Allen had a four-game stretch with seven interceptions and lost to the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars.

If the MVP vote was taking place now, Burrow might be the favorite. He was fantastic down the stretch—he threw for a combined 972 yards with eight touchdown passes and no interceptions in his last two regular-season starts—and has Cincinnati in the Super Bowl.

However, MVP voting took place at the end of the regular season, at the same time as All-Pro voting. Rodgers and Brady were the top two vote-getters for first-team All-Pro, so one of them is likely to claim the award.

Based on the results of the All-Pro voting, it would be a shock if anyone other than Rodgers won the award.

"Aaron Rodgers got 34 votes to 16 for Tom Brady for All-Pro. It's the same voters so Rodgers essentially just won MVP," NFL Media's Gregg Rosenthal tweeted on January 14.

We've seen in the past, however, that All-Pro votes and MVP votes aren't always the same. Two years ago, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson received 47 votes for first-team All-Pro. He went on to unanimously win the MVP.

There's a chance that some voters viewed Rodgers as the best quarterback but not the most valuable one. Some voters may have picked Rodgers for All-Pro but cast their MVP ballots for a non-quarterback like Kupp. Perhaps a few voters saw Brady's retirement coming and picked him over Rodgers as a sort of send-off for the greatest career in league history.

It's not as if Brady isn't deserving.

"I think if he doesn't get it, it's a travesty," Buccaneers Bruce Arians told reporters. "Most completions ever, 5,000 yards, touchdowns, the whole nine yards. To me, it's not even a close race."

Some voters, like Associated Press voter Hub Arkush, may simply refuse to vote for Rodgers for personal reasons.

"I can guarantee you I will not be the only one not voting for him," Arkush told 670 The Score in Chicago (h/t ProFootballTalk's Michael David Smith).

Still, our guess is that Rodgers gets enough votes to edge out Brady and Burrow as this year's MVP. It may be a tighter race than the All-Pro selection, but Rodgers will be named MVP for the fourth time.